“I took a week and a bit off after playing in the ‘A’ (AHL),” Ellis said this past May at the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) Awards Ceremony. “Just kind of relaxed, went up to the cottage and I just started my training regimen in the summer and I’m looking forward to a little time off as well as off-season training.”

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The 2009 first-round draft choice reached new personal summits in 2010-11 with the Windsor Spitfires when he was named the OHL Mickey Renaud Captain’s Award winner, top defenceman in the OHL, CHL and World Junior Championship, player of the year in both the OHL and CHL, and an OHL and World Junior Championship All Star.  He finished with 313 career points, third highest among all OHL defencemen in history.  He also captained Team Canada at the World Junior Championship in Buffalo, winning a second consecutive silver medal to go with the gold he won in 2009.

Ellis paused to consider his accomplishments and place in major junior history.

“I talked to my old coach Bob Boughner yesterday.  I think it’s just icing on the cake.   We had a great season this year and we went a lot further than a lot of people expected.   I think, just personally for myself, after four years in the OHL with the Windsor Spitfires, these two awards are just something on the top and I’m very honoured to get them.”

He was humbled to have his name etched on the CHL Defenceman of the Year Award noting “the pretty big names on that list. I think to be in the company of not just those defencemen but the other players that have won it in previous years is very exciting.   I think going on to pro hockey next year, it’s kind of, like I said, just icing on the cake to sum it all up.”

Ellis gave credit to his first high school hockey coach, Paul Hanley, of the Waterdown District High School Warriors, for motivating him to always give his best effort.

“It’s to always care and to always have the drive to win.   Obviously high school hockey at the time was just kind of more fun for me than anything serious but he always promoted everyone coming with their ‘A’ game and wanting to win, no matter if it was high school, house league, OHL, NHL.  I think that was the biggest thing – always wanting to win, just having that drive at every aspect of any level is key.”

After Windsor’s drive for three straight Memorial Cups ended in the third round of the OHL playoffs in late April, Ellis signed an amateur try-out contract with the Milwaukee Admirals, Nashville’s AHL affiliate.  In his first seven professional playoff games, Ellis scored a goal and an assist.

“It was a great experience.  I had a lot of fun there and I did pretty well for myself.  It was a different experience.  I wasn’t used to joining a team at the end of a year.  It was definitely a big step there.   I think going there in the thick of the playoffs and getting used to playoff speed was a great start for me in pro hockey,” Ellis reflected, reviewing his cup of coffee in Milwaukee.  ”Everyone treated me very well. I played a lot more than I expected to.   I played some key spots which I think was pretty exciting,” he continued, perhaps referring to his goal on the power play in Game 6 of the West Division Final against Houston.

Ellis stated that the biggest lesson he learned in Milwaukee was “just the fact that you must get bigger and stronger for the jump to the AHL or the NHL.”  Just 5’10″ and 179 lbs., scouts have often been skeptical about his viability as an NHL-calibre defenceman.  He chuckled when the topic of his small size came up again.  ”No, I think I’m over that.  I still get those questions once in a while but I’m so far past anything like that.  I’m more confident and things like that aren’t even in my rear view anymore.”

In his third pre-season camp with Nashville, Ellis has hopes of joining Shea Weber and Ryan Suter on the Preds’ blue line but remains even-keeled and would not view a return trip to Milwaukee as a disappointment.  ”I think the AHL is a great way to earn your way to an NHL team. I think if that’s in the cards for me, then I’ll relish in that role and go there, try to do my best and hopefully work my way to pro hockey.”

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What if the NHL, NHLPA, KHL and other European leagues negotiated a compensation fee scale that resembles fair market value for talented prospects?  Like the salary cap, the midpoint between the minimum and maximum level of this compensation range should be at the level that would allow all NHL teams to make an affordable offer.  Each subsequent season, the range, minimum and maximum would be adjusted based on statistics such as operating income of the NHL, KHL and other European leagues plus general economic conditions, much like the determination of the salary cap and floor.

Then, to prevent large market NHL clubs from always offering compensation fees at the maximum level, how about implementing a “luxury tax” threshold at, for example, 65% of the compensation fee range, beyond which the excess would be subject to a luxury tax tacked on to the NHL club’s salary cap in the player’s first season.

Example: Compensation minimum and maximum are $250,000 and $2-million, respectively.  65% level = $1.3875-million. Luxury tax set at 130% of excess compensation over the 65% level. Drafting NHL club negotiates $1.8-million compensation fee to KHL club for immensely-talented Russian player ‘X’.  The excess of $412,500 would result in a $536,250 luxury tax (130% x $412,500) added into the NHL club’s total salaries for salary cap purposes in the year that player ‘X’ debuts.

That hypothetical $536,250 may not seem like much but it would be the equivalent of a replacement level player – an enforcer, a journeyman checking line forward or a frequently recalled injury fill-in from the AHL – that most teams need to have on standby to fill out a roster.  From another perspective, that $536,250 might be the pro-rated salary of a potential trade deadline acquisition.

Thus a lot of the decision-making on whether to draft Russian and other European prospects would have to be done well before the actual Entry Draft.  Capologists on each NHL team would have to reason not only if their club should draft a certain player based on scouting reports and projecting his skills to the NHL but they would have to analyse affordability.  If player ‘X’ is drafted, can the club reasonably go all out and pay what the KHL or European club is demanding for compensation given the maximum limit on compensation and the possible luxury tax penalty against a future season’s salary cap?

Nashville right wing Alexander Radulov abruptly signed a contract with Russian KHL club Salavat Yulayev Ufa in the summer of 2008 even though he had one year remaining on his entry-level NHL deal.

Note that presently, many consistent contenders have already tied up some franchise players to long-term contracts and attempts to stockpile more talent via drafting Europeans and paying compensation fees would be a more difficult task if the excess of the compensation fee affects future cap hits.  Therefore, this would allow rebuliding or small market teams with fewer long-term contracts to have a more fair chance at European talent in the Entry Draft.  Since inferior teams tend to draft earlier in the first round, they could select boldly knowing they might be able to offer maximum compensation fee money and not worry about future cap hits as they may presently be near the salary floor and thus could go “all-in” when negotiating with the European or KHL club.

Natural factors would discourage KHL or European clubs from being overly demanding or staunchly asking for the upper limit of the compensation scale.  If the drafting NHL club refuses to meet the asking price and the player returns to play in the KHL or other European league, there is a risk to his incumbent club that his skills will decline or he will suffer a serious injury, thus decreasing the potential compensation fee his club could reasonably expect during a second round of post-Entry Draft negotiations.

Clearly, this modest proposal is a very, very basic framework that seeks to introduce fairness to the currently flawed system. It would give European clubs currently bound by Player Transfer Agreements a shot at receiving more than a flat amount of $225,000 while acknowledging the correct logic of the KHL that obvious budding superstars should yield their clubs a fair market price, unlike the mere $150,000 that brought the exceptionally-gifted Russian centre Pavel Datsyuk to Detroit.

For the NHL, teams would have to continue to be prudent and mindful of the salary cap from the implications of offering compensation fees that would trigger luxury tax in future years.  Small market clubs would have a reasonable chance at garnering top European talent in such a system that would simply not be there in a totally open market.

Ultimately, any player transfer agreement in the future between the NHL, Russia and other European nations must specify fair compensation for selling clubs while giving all NHL teams, regardless of market size, an even shot at acquiring these players.  By doing so, hockey’s leaders will be able to reduce the international turf wars, multiple contracts and mistrust that damage worldwide promotion of the sport.

Now that you’re done celebrating Hockey Day in America – which turned into three days this year – it’s time to catch up on things you may have missed.

To help out, below are ten stories you need to know coming out of the weekend…

* Andrei Loktionov was sent back to Manchester. It’s a numbers game. With Marco Sturm set to return the Kings needed a roster spot. They can’t send Davis Drewiske or Peter Harrold down without first going through waivers. Chances are they wouldn’t make it. Both are serviceable sixth defenseman in the NHL and have minimal salaries. At the very least, it wasn’t a chance worth taking. Odds are Loktionov will be back in LA before the season is out.  Kings coach Terry Murray explained things in detail here.

* Still not sure why people were so in awe of Carey Price’s mask during the Heritage Classic. The concept has been used by several goalies in the past, including Jonathan Quick’s tribute to Rogie Vachon this year. However, my favorite may have been Hannu Toivanen of the St. Louis Blues / Boston Bruins going with the Denis Lemieux (from Slap Shot) look.

* Looking for information on the stable of Kings prospects?  Check out the Kings Prospect Report – it includes updates on Brayden Schenn, Tyler Toffoli and the others who are tearing up junior hockey this season.

* More on Schenn – if you would like a game used jersey, the Saskatoon Blades are auctioning off one of his jerseys here for charity.

* For the Schenn hat trick, here’s a third item of the day…more specifically, an update on the latest Brayden Schenn trade rumor – Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke continues to be hot on the trial of Schenn, including ‘accidently’ mentioning his name in a press conference this week. However, the reality is the Leafs don’t have the assets to acquire the young center. It’s highly doubtful Schenn gets traded this week by the Kings. And it certainly wouldn’t be to Toronto IF it happened.

* In the February 7th And Now You’re Caught Up article it was noted that doctors couldn’t determine what was wrong with Ducks’ goalie Jonas Hiller, so despite reports that he was just tired it was something worth watching. Sure enough, the dizziness he complained of wasn’t a minor thing and he’s been on IR. If it’s a concussion, who knows how long he’ll be out (see: Crosby, Sidney). In other Pacific Division injury news, Phoenix placed defenseman Ed Jovanovski on IR a few days ago with an orbital bone fracture (he’s expected to miss at least two weeks).

* Even more injury news out of the ultra-tight Western Conference – Nashville defenseman Ryan Suter left Saturday’s game with a lower body injury (he’s listed as day-to-day with no updates from the team yet) and Minnesota’s Mikko Koivu is probably going to need surgery on his hand, which will require him to miss significant time.

* Prior to the Heritage Classic Calgary and Montreal put on an alumni game featuring the ’86 Canadiens and ’89 Flames. Which should have been enough to get Kings fans salivating at the thought of next year. If the rumors (as reported here) turn out to be true – and the Kings face the Rangers in the 2012 Winter Classic, just think of the possibility – the ’93 Kings vs the ’94 Rangers.  In other words, Gretzky, Robitaille and Hrudey taking on Messier, Graves and Richter.  Oh yeah, and Leetch vs. Blake.

* Although the NHL’s two Classics are behind us now, there is still more hockey left to be played in the natural elements. Later this afternoon the WHL will stage an outdoor game between the Regina Pats and Calgary Hitmen. If this game was played last year, there would have been three Kings prospects participating (Colten Teubert for the Pats, Brandon Kozun and Martin Jones for the Hitmen). With all three having moved on to Manchester (AHL) though, that leaves Jordan Weal – who was drafted last summer – as the Kings lone representative. Unfortunately, the game is not being shown in the U.S.

* The tweet of the week may have come from Anaheim’s Bobby ‘breadsticks’ Ryan – “Game day flat tire outside the Olive Garden. #comeonreally!!” (yes, that was a real tweet from Bobby Ryan)

And now you’re caught up.

The Mayor
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RELATED ARTICLES:

The Complete Story on Brayden Schenn

All Hail the Kings and Their Men – notes on LA vs. Washington

End of the Road For Kings Point Streak (w/video)

Against many odds, the Nashville Predators continue to find ways to win enough games to make the playoffs year after year. Last season marked their fifth post season appearance in the last six years.

Yet somehow, coach Barry Trotz, the second-longest tenured coach in the NHL behind only Buffalo’s Lindy Ruff, is repeatedly over looked for Coach of The Year honors.

In net, things are pretty solid with 6’5″ Pekka Rinne. On defense, their young Canadian-American duo of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter rivals the Kings’ Drew Doughty / Jack Johnson tandem, in terms of talent and future upside.

They also have another good one on the way in Ryan Ellis, the Team Canada captain who was just voted top defenseman of the World Junior Championship yesterday.

Offensively, well…they’re still searching for the right mix of responsible forwards and ones skilled enough to put the puck in the net on a regular basis. For now, it continues to be ‘scoring by committee.’

They’re biggest off-season move was signing center Matthew Lombardi away from the Phoenix Coyotes – something that should have given them more team speed, in addition to some goals. Unfortunately, he’s been out with a concussion since the second game.

They still had Steve Sullivan, a Kings killer (more on that here), up until two weeks ago – he’s now out with a lower body injury.  Plus, they recently lost Jordin Tootoo for an unspecified period of time when he admitted himself into the league’s Substance Abuse Program.

One bright spot through all of the team’s challenges though has been Marcel Goc.  They signed the German-born center to a free agent contract in the summer of 2009 and it’s been paying dividends. His 30 points (12g, 18a) last year were career highs and he’s on pace to surpass them again this season. He comes into tonight’s game with 16 points (7g, 9a).

Prior to Thursday’s game with the Kings I caught up with Goc for a few comments…

MM:  You’ve faced the Kings twice so far this season.  What have you seen from them that’s different, if anything, compared to what you remember from last year?

MG:  They’re a good team.  They play solid team defense and they can roll four lines against you.  They’re tough.

MM:  Jonathan Bernier has picked up three straight wins against the Predators.  Have you found any differences when playing against him versus Jonathan Quick last season? 

MG:  They’re both pretty good goalies.  They’re situation is similar to ours too.  Both starting goalies know they have a strong back-up behind them – so, when they make mistakes he’s there for them.  We just have to make sure we show up tonight and not think about the past.  Mentally you don’t want the game to be over before it’s started.  We want to think positively and get points today.

MM:  The Kings recently acquired Marco Sturm, a player you know fairly well from several international tournaments with Germany.  Any thoughts on playing against him tonight?

MG:  He’s very wise and a very tough player.  He knows where to be on the ice in all situations.  Coming back from that type of injury (major knee surgery) is tough,  but he’s off to a good start.   I watched a little bit of the game they played in San Jose last week.  He scored a goal, which I think got the team going a little bit.  From what I hear he’s fitting in well and he likes it here.

MM:  We’re reaching the mid-point of the season.  Given that each year has its own characteristics and story line, what’s something you’ve learned about this team that you didn’t know back in training camp?

MG:  Well, I don’t know.  We’ve had to go through a lot of injuries, that’s for sure.  We had some similar problems last year too.  I think the guys that were called up or came in from other places played well for us though.  It’s the same situation this year though.  We don’t have one line that does the scoring for us every night.  We need every line to do it at a certain point, while playing well defensively every night also.

MM: Barry Trotz continuities to find ways to push the right buttons in Nashville. What does he mean to you personally as a coach and how has he helped your game?

MG: I like that he’s easy to talk to.  He’s also straight forward with you, he tells you what he wants.  He gives guys confidence and that’s probably one of the main reasons why things are going well in Nashville.

For the record, the Preds downed the Kings 5-2 after scoring five unanswered goals.  The Kings have now lost five straight and it was Bernier’s first career loss to Nashville.

The Mayor
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RELATED ARTICLES:

Interview with Steve Sullivan

Interview with Shea Weber

Westgarth and Simmonds on Nashville’s Shane O’Brien

Then, Along Came Bernier

10 Tidbits on Marco Sturm

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Heading into the game on March 30th of last season, the Nashville Predators were riding a seven game unbeaten streak against the LA Kings – a stretch going back to the beginning of the 2008-09 season.

Then, along came Jonathan Bernier.

With Erik Ersberg suffering from a strained back, he was recalled from Manchester, stepped right into the line-up and delivered a 2-0 shutout – the first of his career (in just his sixth NHL start).

When the Predators came to Los Angeles for the first game of their four-game season series with the Kings this year, Bernier was back in net again.

The Kings won 4-1. Unfortunately, his second shutout was ruined with less than three minutes to go in the game. Still, Bernier 2 – Predators 0 lifetime.

So, it was a natural choice when Kings coach Terry Murray decided to pull Bernier from his near-permanent seat on the bench and return him to the net against Nashville Saturday night.

On cue, Bernier delivered.

Kings 6, Predators 1.

There’s a good chance Jonathan Quick will start the next nine Kings games in a row (including Sunday against the Blackhawks).  Fortunately for Bernier, the Predators come to Los Angeles on Thursday, January 6.

Other stats and post game notes…

*  Nashville was 8-0-2 in their last 10 games, including a five game winning streak.  They were also 8-1-5 at home in regulation.

*  Steve Sullivan added to his ridiculous career stats vs. the Kings with the Predators lone goal.

*  Anze Kopitar had found his way onto the score sheet in seven of the Kings’ last eight games with the Predators.  Despite six goals from the team, somehow he was held pointless.

*  LA had gone 1-5 on the road this year without Willie Mitchell.  Now, they’re 2-5.

*  The Kings are 9-0-0 when leading after 2 periods.  They’re also 15-3-0 when scoring 3+ goals and 14-2-0 when allowing 2 or fewer goals.

*  They’re 4-1-1 at the midpoint of a 12 game stretch vs. Western Conference opponents.

*  The victory was coach Murray’s 98th for the Kings (in his 194th game).  The fastest coach in team history to 100 wins is Tom Webster, who did it in 211 games.

*  The Kings first goal came 15 seconds into the game, their quickest this season.  Their four goal output in the first was also a first this season.

*  Trevor Lewis scored his first goal of the year, second of his career.

*  Each team had 17 wins on the season prior to the game - something had to give.

The Mayor
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The Mayor appears courtesy of www.MayorsManor.com – where you can get interviews and inside information on the LA Kings.  Follow him on twitter or check out some of these related articles to get you started…

Word Association with Jonathan Bernier

Interview with Predators captain Shea Weber

Interview with ‘Kings Killer’ Steve Sullivan

Westgarth and Simmonds comment on Nashville’s Shane O’Brien

He’s Back…Five Questions with Willie Mitchell

Kings ’Youth and Promise’ Has Familiar Ring to Blackhawks

photo courtesy of Michael Zampelli
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Keys to snapping the slump

After getting off to their best start in franchise history, the Blues were ravaged with injuries and essentially went into a tail-spin, losing its next 5 games. That 5-game skid included an 8-1 thrashing from Columbus and an odd 7-3 loss to the Detroit Red Wings. That loss to the Red Wings was the fifth and final loss of that skid for the Blues, but Detroit’s final 4 goals of that game came in a short 3-minute burst midway through the third period.

The Blues returned home following that loss in Detroit to take on the Ottawa Senators and New Jersey Devils. It turns out that some home cooking was all the Note needed to bounce back. Yes, Ottawa and New Jersey were struggling heading into the weekend’s games. However, given how poorly the Blues had been playing, no one really knew what to expect heading in.

Carlo told me that it helped playing in Scottrade Center again, but that it was important for the team to get back to the style of play it utilized earlier in the season.

“Obviously, this year we have been a really good team at home and basically getting back to the style of play that made us really successful for the first handful of games this season,” Carlo said. “We made it clear to ourselves that we can’t be making excuses and we still have a good enough team and good enough players to win hockey games.”

Power Surge

When I interviewed Andy Strickland a couple of weeks ago, he told me that he didn’t realize how much the Blues’ powerplay relied on Carlo.

“I didn’t realize Carlo Colaiacovo was this important to the powerplay and he really is,” Andy said. “I knew he was important and in some ways he’s their quarterback and he’s the best in distributing the puck on the power play from a defensive standpoint. He’s really good at it. He’s also good at getting the puck into the zone and being able to make that first pass to really get things moving”

Andy was right. At the time of the interview, Carlo had been out for the last 7 games due to a concussion he sustained after taking a big hit from Nashville’s Jordan Tootoo. Without the 27-year-old defenseman in there, the Blues were an astonishing 1-27 on the powerplay. However, since Carlo’s return on November 16, the Blues have scored at least one goal with the man-advantage in each of those games.

Defensive Prowess

Despite seeing their goals against total nearly triple during their 5-game losing streak, the Blues still rank amongst the NHL’s top 10 in goals against. Obviously a lot of credit has to be given to the goaltenders, Jaroslav Halak and Ty Conklin. However, the Blues’ defense has been spectacular in not allowing shots to get through and controlling opposing offenses once they enter the zone.

Quick Hits

Mood during the skid

“You know, we were one of the best teams road teams in the league last year and I think we gotta get back to that and if we can get back to that then we’re going to be right at the top where we were. Right now we just gotta focus on continuing to do the little things and make sure we don’t get stuck in a funk like that again.”

Maintaining momentum

“We’re not going to win too many hockey games when we try to run and gun with teams, I think. Our record shows a lot of the wins we have, we’ve been winning a lot of close games and low scoring games, so I think we have to continue that trend.”

Jaroslav Halak

“I think the one thing you see about Jaro is he’s got such a calm demeanor in the net he tries, doesn’t try, but he basically does make everything a little bit easier than it looks, which is a huge sign of confidence for himself as well the guys playing in front of him.”

Parting Shot

The Blues faced off against Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins earlier this season and will play Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals to open up the month of December. I asked Carlo about what it’s like to play against two of the leagues superstars in “Sid the Kid” and “Alexander the Great”.

Superstars

Opening Face-off

10.09.10-vs. Philadelphia Flyers (W 2-1)

Carlo Colaiacavo made sure the Saint Louis Blues opened up their season with a W, netting the game-winning goal in overtime against the Philadelphia Flyers. The Blues defender skated in at just the right time and buried the rebound from an Alex Steen backhander to seal the victory for the Blues 1:47 into OT.

Forward Brad Boyes accounted for the Blues’ other goal, netting a power play goal late in the first period. The Flyers’ lone goal came on a quirky shot from Danny Briere off a rebound. Unlike last season where the team would sometimes play more conservatively after giving up the equalizer in the third period, the Blues remained extremely aggressive and came close on numerous occasions to ending the game in regulation.

10.11.10-vs. Anaheim Ducks (W 5-1)

The Blues beat down a struggling Anaheim Ducks and broke a couple long standing records in the process. The first record to fall came in the first period when David Backes and Andy McDonald both scored just 6 seconds apart, breaking a 42-year-old franchise record. Record #2 to fall? The Blues out-shot the Ducks 53-14, the largest spread in shot differential for the team in franchise history.

Matt D’Agostini had a big game scoring 2 of the teams other 3 goals (and nearly netting a third as the final seconds ticked away). BJ Crombeen accounted for the other remaining goal for the Blues.

This week’s guest: Jeff Quirin

Blue Note Zone founder Jeff Quirin. In addition to writing for and running his own website, Jeff also writes for Hockey Independent.

Road trip!

After back-to-back home games to open up the season the Blue Note now heads out to Nashville to kick off its first road trip of the season. The three game, four day round trip will take the Blues to Nashville, Dallas, and Chicago. After getting such a strong start at home, it should be interesting to see how the Blues are able to perform on the road against three teams that gave them fits last season. Here is what Kevin and Jeff say Blues fans should expect to see from the Note over the next 4 days and how the playing styles differ between games at home and abroad.

Jeff: [These will be] three hard fought games as the cohesion they started building in the melee against the Ducks continues to grow. There seems to be a realization of just how important the first month to six weeks of the season can be. They’ll bring the home effort level on the road trip and outwork three groups of defensemen who have seen better days. To an extent there is [a change in playing style between home and away games]. Shifts are shorter, less risks are taken, players try to reduce chances to take penalties. In short the game is simplified to minimize the various advantages that come with being the home team.

Kevin: I would expect a lot of the same that you’ve seen so far.  Davis Payne emphasizes a game by game approach so every game is as important as the team prepares. [In terms of differences in playing style], because the home team gets the last change, the road game for some coaches can actually be less complicated since they are not able to match lines as effectively.  Other than that, like I said previously Davis has the same home and road approach.

Janssen Injury

Blues enforcer Cam Janssen took a hard hit from teammate Brad Winchester during the season opener against the Philadelphia Flyers. Winchester and Janssen were both moving in to run over Flyer Oskars Bartulis. However, Janssen skated in front of Bartulis and was hit in the head by Winchester’s elbow.

The hit knocked Janssen to the ice and broke his stick. After he was carted off the ice it was revealed that Janssen suffered a concussion and and sternum contusion that will keep the Saint Louis native out for at least two weeks. Coach Davis Payne cited a combination of the hit, the ice, and the broken stick (a piece of which went into Janssen’s chest) as causes for the injuries his player suffered.

The biggest loss the Blues suffer without a player like Janssen on the roster is definitely energy. His frenetic style of play energizes both his teammates and the fans. Here is how Kevin and Jeff broke down the loss of Janssen and its effect on the team.

Jeff: Who is the spark plug? Who goes out with reckless abandon because his job is to stir the pot and amp up the energy level? Cam fills that role perfectly, especially at Scottrade. Momentum shifts come from special teams conversions, goals, fights and big hits. Losing Janssen means that half of the Blues game changing abilities are reduced.

Kevin: Cam brings a lot of intangibles to the game aside from his role as a physical deterrent, like energy play and constant encouragement on the bench.

In terms of how Coach Davis Payne can replace a player like Janssen, Kevin and Jeff both agreed that Brad Winchester and Ryan Reaves will be relied upon to step up and take over as the team’s agitators during Janssen’s absence.

Brew Crew

The game against Anaheim showed that just because the Blues are without their tough-guy, they are not going to be easy to shove around. Numerous players dropped the gloves and laid some punishing hits on the opposition in defense of their teammates. The most meaningful fight, in my opinion, came in the third period when team captain Eric Brewer dropped the gloves with Aaron Varos after he took a cheap shot at one of the Blues players.

Despite standing up for his teammate and exemplifying the reasons why he was selected to remain on as team captain, Brewer continues to take heat from the Blues faithful. While he has done a lot in the past to warrant such harsh criticism, it’s objectively true that he has done nothing to draw criticism from this season from the fans. In fact, his fighting Varos in the third period should earn him a little praise from the fans.

Point blank question: What does Eric Brewer have to do in order to earn some respect from Blues fans?

Jeff: I don’t think he will ever be able to endear himself to the fans. I have seen many temper their stance and acknowledge that Eric really is a capable hockey player. Then I see someone complaining that Brewer’s fight with Aaron Voros in the third period killed a 3 on 2 rush and shake my head. At that point of the game sticking up for your teammate and pairing partner is vastly more important than one odd man rush when the Blues were up by three goals. It’s a situation where he is wrong no matter what he does.

Kevin: He just needs to play his game and not worry about the fans, not that he has worried before.  Brewer is what he is, a solid (not bad, but not great) defenseman.

Quick Hit: Power Outage

Despite starting the season so strongly, the Blues powerplay has struggled going just 2 for 18 in their first 2 games. Personally, I find their 11.1% powerplay percentage rather alarming. Here are Jeff and Kevin’s takes.

Jeff: There has to be concern right away. The 9 missed opportunities on the power play in the home opener allowed the Flyers to score just one goal in the third period to force Overtime. A second of third power play conversion puts that game out of reach before the Flyers tie the game. At this point they seem to really be relying on the shot from the point and it’s not there. Id like to see the Blues physically move more and utilize Pietrangelo as a offensive zone rover. Movement creates shooting lanes and right now they aren’t moving enough.

Kevin: I think it’s a little too early.  You can see the changes on the power play being effective in terms of puck possession and shot totals; the goals will come.

Parting “Flick”

Ranked as the 4th smartest man in sports by The Sporting News, George Parros looked like a moron in the third period of Anaheim’s loss sticking his tongue out and flicking Blues defenseman Barret Jackman. Here’s the video of the “altercation” between the two.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Barret was on The ITD Morning After in Saint Louis, MO and had this to say about what happened. “I’m not gonna fight some big dummy like that and miss 2-minutes of the game,” said Jackman. “He figured if he flicked me enough it might agitate me, but no. It was more just of a laugh off by me and he went to the penalty box.”

The ITD Morning After can be heard live weekday mornings from 7-10 on 590 The Fan KFNS and online at InsideSTL.com. As always you can check out the full transcript of the interviews with Kevin Lorenz and this week’s guest, Jeff Quirin, on Hank’s Sports Blog.

Thanks for reading!

Barry Trotz has stated in the past that he likes to construct lines around a forward-pairing.  Given the heavy emphasis on scrimmages in camp to that point, I asked Coach if he had already noticed any pairings demonstrating some significant chemistry.  He responded that he really hasn’t noticed any primarily due to the fact that he hasn’t been looking to this point.  He also said that some likely pairings were purposely kept apart to that point as he spread out the veterans from last season with the newcomers.  My feelings are that his primary focus has been to see as much of those bubble players as possible- rookies and new additions that are largely unknown like Kostitsyn and Andersson.

Up until now, I believe that the first three preseason contests support those thoughts.  The first three games have all featured a near-minimum number veterans allowed (roughly nine veterans per game).  Monday night’s lineup, however, featured 16 regulars from an NHL roster last season, not counting Cal O’Reilly.  Tonight marks the turning point for the Predators preseason and camp as I believe that Coach Trotz will attempt to find those forward-pairs and construct his opening night roster.

The other topic that we had time to discuss was in regards to the style he expects to play this season.  Last season saw a team that fielded two scoring lines, a grinding line and then a true shutdown line with Legwand, Smithson and Ward.  Given the increase in the number of offensively-minded forwards this past offseason, Coach Trotz speculated that the Predators will ice a top line whose number one job is to score goals.  He then described the next two lines as two-way lines that should be effective offensively and be lines in which he’ll match up defensively against the opponent’s top line.  From this discussion, I feel that will essentially bring an end to a line like the Smithson-Legwand-Ward line whose primary job was to stop the opponent from scoring.  That job will be spread across two or three lines this season.  From his fourth line, Trotz said he’s looking for energy and some hardness.

When putting those top three lines together, he said he is trying to find that right balance of playmaker and scorer.  I believe that this is going to be a significant challenge.  Patric Hornqvist is certainly a scorer.  Beyond Hornqvist, it becomes much tougher to identify another forward on the roster this is more scorer than playmaker.  Martin Erat is another good candidate from the perspective of skills, but doesn’t put up the shots of your typical goal scorer.

One thing I found interesting watching camp was watching Barry Trotz going around talking to quite a few players individually after the practice sessions.  To me, it didn’t matter if they were talking about the weather or giving specific attention to something to help that player.  I felt it was interesting insight into how Coach Trotz treats his players- regardless of who they are (star or rookie).  I can immediately see why players have expressed great enjoyment in playing for him.

I enjoyed my limited time in camp this season and I’m looking forward to the puck dropping for real.  It was also great to see Seth (@SLakePreds) again and meet Dirk (@Forechecker) and AJ in Nashville (@AJinNashville).  I encourage every fan to find some time to visit camp.  It’s free and full of great insight into the team.

With all of that, I’m going to try my hand at some relatively minor predictions- because their fun and I’m a glutton for punishment.

• The Predators will start the regular season with the maximum roster size of 23 due to a combination of contract status and forward depth.
• The defensemen will be Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Kevin Klein, Francis Bouillon, Cody Franson and Ryan Parent.  There will be no seventh defenseman to start the season.
• Jonas Andersson, Sergei Kostitsyn and Cal O’Reilly will make the team out of camp.
• Your scratches for opening night will be Jordin Tootoo, Wade Belak, and Cal O’Reilly.
• The top three lines will be built (initially) from the following pairs: Kostitsyn-Legwand, Lombardi-Erat, and Goc-Dumont.
• Anders Lindback will back up Rinne in Nashville this season.

Feel free to call me out when I’m wrong.  I’m wrong often enough to be used to it.

They say that retail is in the details. And while it might not have the same ring to it, hockey is in the numbers.

Take number nine for example, it’s one of the most famous digits in hockey. Gordie Howe wore it. So did Rocket Richard and Bobby Hull.  More recently, Mike Modano built a Hall of Fame career in Dallas as #9.

According to Marcel Dionne, he almost wore it here in LA.  If original Kings’ owner Jack Kent Cooke had gotten his way, there’d be a different number hanging in the rafters at Staples Center right now.

Across town in the OC, the original Mighty Duck – Paul Kariya – wore it back when he called The Pond home.

These days, Bobby Ryan wears it in Anaheim…and if everything works out as planned, he’ll continue to wear it there for many years to come.  For now, he’s working on some other numbers, as in contract numbers. The team and his agent continue to discuss terms – number nine reportedly wants a three year deal, versus the team’s preference of five years – with nothing agreed upon just yet.

In a move that caught some people by surprise though, Ryan recently attended the launch party for Dustin Brown’s new DLO-23 line through Combat Sports.  Even for an event held in Anaheim, seeing a Ducks player out supporting the Kings’ captain was a bit curious at first.  In reality, he was there as a fellow member of the Team USA hockey program.  The two “hit it off” during the Olympics, thus he “didn’t hesitate” when Brown invited him to come down.

So, thanks to D-LO, we had the opportunity to catch up with Bobby Ryan and get his take on a few finer points of the Kings-Ducks rivalry…after, of course, first touching on his Team USA experience.

Let’s start with the Olympics…excluding Brown, who you’re now friends with…who was another guy on the team that you learned something about and came away impressed?

Ryan Suter. He plays in the Western Conference, so we see him with Nashville. He’s a tough guy to play against and he’s a sound guy positionally. But, you really don’t appreciate him until he’s on your team playing those big minutes and until he’s running a power play. He has an overwhelming sense of calm back there, even in the big situations. I was flabbergasted with him at certain points during the Olympics.

Now that you’ve had a few months to let it all sink in, when you look back at Vancouver - besides the big moments against Canada – what other memories do you take with you from the Olympics?

I think the biggest thing for me was the camaraderie, not just between the guys that played hockey though.  It was the whole USA organization in general, the way that we got to meet other athletes and bond with them through the village.  To get a chance to spend time with them and get to know them was incredible. You’d find yourself cheering for events you never thought you’d watch. It was nice to go in there and come out with the most medals too.

You’ve played in Vancouver before with the Ducks, so the city wasn’t new to you.  However, the Olympic experience made things different.  What surprised you the most while you were there?

The acceptance from the Canadian fans. You get a chance on your off days to spend time with your family and get around. You’re wearing the U.S. gear and your family is obviously wearing it from head to toe. I found that even after we beat Canada the first time around that fans didn’t come up to us to give us a hard time or say “We’ll get you next time,” they were supportive almost. They said what a great game it was and that they were rooting for us, just not if we played them again. It was surprising. But it’s something I’ll never forget because I dont know if we’d get that in a lot of other countries.

Anaheim sent eight players to the Olympics.  However, the team struggled once the NHL season resumed and ultimately didnt make the playoffs.  How would you recap what happened over the the full 82 game season?

I think the biggest thing that defined us last year was inconsistency. Obviously we faced injuries, as every team does. We lost Joffrey Lupul, which was a big thing for the year. And Teemu going down for 10 games here and there. We never really got to ice the line-up that we were hoping for, the one that so many people predicted to be strong.  Then, you add in guys going on hot and cold streaks at different points.  We never really meshed as a team in that sense.  So, I dont think it was a prototypical Anaheim season.  I think we should have been a playoff team and maybe even made a run at it. 

It’s been said that a real rivalry doesn’t exist yet between the Ducks and the Kings because the teams haven’t met in the playoffs.  As a player, when you come into Staples Center, do you feel a rivalry or is it really not that much different than when you guys play other teams in the West, like Detroit and San Jose – two teams the Ducks have met in the playoffs?

If you’re not amped up to go out on the ice at Staples Center, the fans right there behind the bench will get you.  It’s a rivalry that does kinda fall by the wayside at times, as maybe it should, when you look at San Jose and the runs they’ve made the last few years…maybe people are focused on them.  But, it’s for bragging rights when we face off with LA.  It’s a tough one for me too because I have so many good friends on the Kings, not just from the Olympics, but from Owen Sound - in Simmonds and Richardson and other guys I’ve gotten to know.  I definitly text those guys after games, whether we win or lose, and say “We’ll get you next time.” or “We had your number tonight.”

[note:  speaking of numbers, here's a few that always stick out...in 2004-05, Bobby Ryan's NHL draft year, he was outscored by the Kings' Brad Richardson (his then-teammate in Owen Sound)...Richie posted more goals and assists than Ryan...that was just five years ago!]

Regarding Staples being a tough place to play at times, when do you remember it being the most challenging for you personally?

It would be after the (Oscar) Moller hit, with about seven seconds left in that game (January 14th).  At the time I was heated up, so some of the comments didn’t register with me.  I just got off the ice.  But, I was aware of it the next time we came there.  We played them again at Staples Center the next month and Doughty got me back that night.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Drew Doughty and Bobby Ryan are two of the brightest young stars for their SoCal hockey teams.  Contract issues aside, they should be leading the charge for their respective franchises for the next decade.

The real question is, who will get the upper hand when it matters most, #8 or #9?

For the Kings-Ducks rivalry to reach a whole new level, an additional number probably needs to be added into the mix.  Seven. 

As in, seven game playoff series.

The Mayor
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The Mayor appears courtesy of MayorsManor – a great source for hockey news, views and interviews. Some of the RELATED ARTICLES you’ll find over there are…

10 Tidbits on Drew Doughty

Interview w/ Noah Clarke – The original California Kings tells the best George Parros story EVER!

Interview with Cam Fowler – Anaheim Ducks draft pick

The Last Time it Mattered This Much – Kings/Ducks Feb 4th Preview

Interview with Mike Modano

Interview with Marcel Dionne

Also - a video recap of the Moller-Ryan-Doughty exchange was posted by the guys over at Life in Hockeywood. You can check it out by clicking here.

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It’s definitely been a busy offseason for David Poile and Predator fans should continue to expect more roster changes if only to downsize to a good size without having to bury contracts in the minors.  Has it been productive though?  That’s the real question to answer.  First, let’s see how the Predators have built their roster to this point (ignoring likely minor signings).

First the Predators re-signed Francis Bouillon on 6/18.  This officially kept 2/3 of the blueline in tact from last season.  On 6/19, the Predators made big news by trading their captain, Jason Arnott, to New Jersey for a prospect and a second round pick.  This freed up $4.5 million from the payroll and, combined with the trading away of Dan Hamhuis’ rights, stirred rumors of the Predators trying to drop their budget to the cap floor.  The aforementioned trade of Hamhuis, also on 6/19, brought former Predators’ first round pick Ryan Parent back to Nashville.  All was quiet until just prior to the free agency period when Nashville traded away the rights to Dan Ellis and Dustin Boyd for troubled RFA Sergei Kostitsyn.  On 7/1, David Poile announced the signing of Jonas Andersson to a one-year, one-way contract.  Andersson was a former second round pick of the Predators back in 1999.  Then on 7/2, David Poile quashed the rumors of just trying to stay at the cap floor by signing Matthew Lombardi to a 3 year, $10.5 million contract ($3.5 million per year).  And today, Sergei Kostitsyn signed his one year, one-way contract for $550,000.  Whew.  Given the roster size, however, there’s definitely more to come.

So, assuming the remaining RFAs are signed, David Poile has added Sergei Kostitsyn, Jonas Andersson, and Matthew Lombardi to the forward core to replace Jason Arnott (and possibly Spaling if he’s sent back to Milwaukee).  Has it made Nashville a better team?  Jason Arnott scored 46 points last season (19G, 27A) in 63 games- a rate of 0.73 points per game.  While typically a good source of goal scoring for Nashville, his time was also unfortunately marred by several concussions and a tendency to disappear for significant stretches of games.  That, combined with a significant drop in goals (from 33 to 19), hurt his ability to help Nashville where they needed it most: a goal-scorer.  That said, he was one of only three Predators that put more than 200 shots on goal (Hornqvist and Weber the other two)- an issue that has plagued the Predators for years.  While many have lauded the offense that Lombardi will bring to the table, he’s never done anything more than put up seasons that were on par with Arnott’s worst statistical seasons- including last year.  He’s not a shooter either.  In terms of both shot count and shot percentage, Lombardi is essentially another Erat (although a much nicer priced Erat).  Kostitsyn and Andersson are both wild cards, but Kostitsyn has some history.  In the past two seasons, Kostitsyn has averaged about 1.3 shots per game (less than David Legwand) while posting roughly a 11% success rate (roughly equivalent to Lombardi).  On the other hand, all three are excellent skaters with Lombardi and Kostitsyn considered good two-way players.

Back to the question of whether Nashville is a better team with these changes- Nashville should be a much faster team and much more defensively responsible among the forwards (important given the likely downgrade of the blueline).  I also expect the penalty kill units to be much improved as well- certainly of great benefit to Nashville in particular.  Offensively, however, I don’t see that much of an increase if any at all.  The power play unit will lose a player that was willing to put the puck on net allowing for Hornqvist to have the opportunity to cash in on the rebounds.  While Nashville adds more in the way of playmakers, they have less who’s first instinct is to score goals.  Last season, Nashville was near the top in the league in depth scoring (number of players with 20-ish goals or more), but that didn’t matter come playoff time.  While I have liked everything that Poile has done to this point, there is still a significant need to bring in that goal scorer.  I believe that moving Arnott was a good thing, but the good things he brought to the table in shooting and goal scoring have yet to be replaced to this point.

What do fans of the Nashville Predators have to look forward to next?  Definitely some roster reduction will be in the works.  The most likely candidates to me: Cal O’Reilly ($575,000) and Alexander Sulzer ($700,000).  That would get the roster size down to 22 players (including all RFAs re-signed using the numbers I speculated about here) with an actual salary of about $45,575,000 ($46.7 million cap hit)- likely under the internal budget and about halfway between the cap floor and midpoint.  That scenario keeps with the shotgun approach of hoping several players contribute enough to boost the offensive statistics- particularly those power play statistics.  If Poile really wanted to surprise, he could move Jordin Tootoo (a player that has really struggled to fit his talents with the needs of the Predators) and J.P. Dumont in order to bring in that greatly needed sniper with the extra $5 million that would be freed with such a move.

At a minimum, the Predators should field a team that is much faster and stronger defensively among the forwards.  The blueline is a likely question mark given additional youth and the overall downgrade after Weber and Suter.  The seemingly age-old question about the power play has to hope that a bunch of playmakers will figure out that they’ll need to help Weber and Hornqvist score goals.  That might be too much to ask.

In the aftermath of the Nashville Predators trading away Dan Hamhuis and Jason Arnott there’s been some talk Predators GM David Poile made those moves to perhaps clear space to pursue a big name free agent star.

Over the weekend The Bleacher Report suggested Poile might target New Jersey Devils winger Ilya Kovalchuk, slated to be the star in this summer’s UFA market.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/408625-are-the-nashville-predators-looking-to-sign-ilya-kovalchuk

The report suggests the Predators might not be amongst Kovalchuk’s preferred destinations but claimed they have the cap space to afford his anticipated salary demands of $7.5-$9 million per season plus have an up-and-coming roster.

Other options might include San Jose’s Patrick Marleau, Montreal’s Tomas Plekanec or Phoenix’s Matthew Lombardi.

What the author of this bit overlooks is the Predators, for their vaunted “cap space” are under a self-imposed cap for next season believed to be between $45-$47 million, meaning the $38.8 million they’ve currently got committed to 17 players for next season leaves them less than $10 million in cap space, not the $20 million they might have if they could afford to spend up to next season’s anticipated cap ceiling.

Furthermore, as noted by The Tennessean, the Predators are more likely to commit their available cap space toward re-signing promising young players like Patric Hornqvist, Cody Fransen and Dustin Boyd.

Having dealt away Hamhuis they’ll likely try to re-sign defenseman Denis Grebeshkov, a restricted free agent they acquired at the trade deadline from the Edmonton Oilers, as well as Ryan Parent, whom they received from the Philadelphia Flyers in the Hamhuis deal.

While I’ll admit anything’s possible I would expect the Predators to stay well under the salary cap, use their available space to retain their young talent, and shun the big names in this summer’s UFA market.

Lyle Richardson
SpectorsHockey.net
twitter.com/spectorshockey

David Poile- from CNNSI.com

In my last blog, I detailed the tough job that this offseason will be for David Poile.  In order to understand my thought process, as wacked as one might think it is, please read that entry if nothing more than to confirm your suspicions.

In this missive, I’m going to pretend I’m David Poile and outline scenarios, with specific players, designed to improve the team for next season as well as beyond.

Before I go and build next year’s Nashville Predators, I will share the guiding principles I will use throughout my efforts: (1) maintain the principle of building from the goaltender out, (2) do not sacrifice the core youth for veterans, and (3) provide tools to better the power play.  Two additional guiding principles that I’m going to utilize are to favor top-end potential over scoring depth as well as to restrict top-six level salaries for top-six forwards (in terms of their role on the team).

Nothing so onerous or outlandish yet (don’t worry, I’ll get there).

Next, I go to Ed Lang and the owners and do my utter best to convince them that the budget should be raised to $48 million- just under the cap midpoint.  My argument would be that it’s only $2 million and that you could pretty easily take it back down to $45 million in two years if they team doesn’t break even over the next two years (netted).

That might be a little risky, but I think it’s crucial for the long-term health of the franchise.  In and of itself, it also doesn’t take the franchise anywhere close to $20 million in losses to trigger any clauses with the city.  For the first draft of this scenario, I will work with a budget of $48 million.

Remember that we start with 18 players under contract, totaling roughly $42.7 million.  I’m going to build an improved roster on a $48 million budget.  Throughout this exercise, I will utilize capgeek.com and their great salary cap charts and fantasy calculators.  I can’t recommend their site enough.  Let’s start the insanity fun.

Internally, Identify the Top-Six Forwards

These forwards must be the best paid, ELC’s notwithstanding.   They must be played in roles to maximize their offensive potential as the team’s shift away from depth-based scoring (due to financial reasons) necessitates that fact.

I would identify David Legwand, Martin Erat, Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist, and one of Steve Sullivan, Jason Arnott, and J.P. Dumont.  Given the choice, I would choose Sullivan.  The other two join the pool of tradable assets that will be used to bring in the sixth player (directly or indirectly).

Why those five?  Legwand and Erat are paid like top six forwards, were drafted by Nashville and have longer contracts than the others.  Wilson is paid $1.725 million.  Nashville can’t afford too many players making that on the third line and he’s the best option, long term, to play top six minutes as opposed to Joel Ward and Jordin Tootoo.  Hornqvist is a given coming off a 30 goal season with less than top six minutes and is a natural for moving into a more permanent top six role.

From Sullivan, Dumont, and Arnott, I choose Sullivan for two reasons: (1) he’s a cheaper option with an expiring contract, and (2) I believe his ability to be both an effective scorer and playmaker trumps either Arnott’s scoring or Dumont’s playmaking ability.

Re-sign Patric Hornqvist: 3 years, $2.25 million cap hit

Since I’ve included him above, this obviously must occur.  Probably the lone bright spot on the power play, it’s crucial he’s brought back.  With this salary, he gets top-six minutes and plays a role that will maximize his offensive abilities.

Re-sign Shea Weber: 12 years, $5.5 million cap hit

Following our guiding principle of building from the goaltender out, and being proactive in signing our elite defenseman with the more unique skill set, I sign Shea Weber to a long term contract extension modeled after Duncan Keith’s contract (which also stresses the importance of re-signing Weber this offseason to maximize the effect of that comparable contract).

Additionally, it shows the league that Nashville has no intention of letting their All-Olympian defenseman leave town and is committed to improving the team- even with a limited budget.

Re-sign Francis Bouillon: 3 years, $1.5 million cap hit

Continuing our principle of building from the goaltender out, I re-sign the steady and physical Bouillon to a reasonable $1.5 million for the next three years.  With the re-signing of Bouillon, Nashville returns at least four from the last season’s blueline.  For Nashville, and their style of play, the more stability among that group the better.

Expect Jonathon Blum to fill 6^th Defenseman Spot

Blum’s NHL salary will be $941,666 over the next two seasons.  As much as I like Cody Franson, and feel that he plays an important role on the Predators power play, I also feel that Franson is likely the more valuable asset for trade purposes.  I also think that it is important to play Blum now in the event Nashville has to make another key decision in the 2012 offseason- coinciding with conclusion of his and Ryan Suter’s contracts.

That said, if the trade is favorable for Nashville, I would keep Franson and trade Blum without too much concern.

Identify Movable Roster Assets and Resultant Increase in Cap Space

Now, I identify assets that I want to move and the cap space that brings to the table.  Some of those assets have a No Movement or No Trade Clause.  While that makes moving those individuals harder, it’s not impossible and certainly not to be avoided.  At the end of the day, some of these players could remain, but I make every attempt to move each of these players to further the team.  I value the cleared cap space foremost, but want to maximize the return as much as possible.

Jason Arnott (NMC): 1 year left, $4.5 million cap hit

J.P. Dumont (NMC): 2 years left, $4 million cap hit

Jordin Tootoo: 2 years left, $1.25 million cap hit

Cal O’Reilly: 1 year left, $562,500 cap hit

Alexander Sulzer: 1 year left, $650,000 cap hit

If Nashville doesn’t re-sign Cody Franson or Denis Grebeshkov, their Restricted Free Agency status makes them useful trade assets as well.

If we pause to take stock, courtesy of capgeek.com, after removing those players from the roster, we are left with 16 players (10 forwards, 5 defensemen, 1 goalie), $36.421 million payroll, and a remaining budget of roughly $11.5 million (remember, we’re working on an internal budget of $48 million for this exercise).

Let’s continue…

Re-sign Dan Hamhuis or Denis Grebeshkov: 6 years, $3.75 million cap hit

Now we start spending that additional $11.5 million, and we do it by completing our blueline.  With this signing, Nashville does not have to make a move on the blueline until Ryan Suter and Jonathon Blum’s contracts expire in two years.  They certainly could, of course, but they don’t have to make a move.  Grebeshkov likely signs for a little less, but for easiness I’m going to work with the $3.75 million number.

(Re-)Sign two bottom six forwards and a backup goaltender: Limit of $1.75 million

Here we are filling out the role players.  We could re-sign Dustin Boyd for $700,000, sign another bottom six forward for $500,000 and sign a backup goaltender for $550,000.  Essentially any group of players provided we limit the total to $1.75 million.

Glancing again at where we are at, courtesy of capgeek, we have signed 20 players (12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies), committed $41.9 million to payroll, and have about $6 million left for our final top six forward.

Sign, or Trade for, an Elite Forward: Limit of $6 million cap hit next season

I first approach Washington about Alexander Semin (1 year left, $6 million cap hit).  I would consider any combination of the tradable assets above and/or a reasonable combination of draft picks for Semin.  If a trade can be made, I think his 40+ goals and top-end offensive skill bring the most to this team for the power play (other than bringing a power play coach).  Semin becomes an immediate threat that other teams must focus upon.  That will help Hornqvist and the defensemen increase their offensive potential.

The other aspect of trading for Semin is that Arnott and Dumont might be more likely to waive their NMCs to go to a team like Washington if I can entice Washington enough to take on the additional salary.

If Semin is off the table, I might turn my attention to Patrick Marleau.  I might also call Anaheim to discuss the possibilities of Bobby Ryan.  If Poile was going to exceed $5 million for Phil Kessel, the possibility should exist to bring in a player of this caliber after clearing the salary we cleared to this point.

Other Options for the Final Top Six Forward

The next best option might be to trade for Chicago’s Dustin Byfuglien (1 year left, $3 million).  Doing so would mean that we move our tradable assets above for draft picks (or those role players) as Chicago could not take salary back.  To me, that’s not a bad option as it gives me, I mean David Poile, significant options down the road.  Byfuglien brings the size and willingness to play in front of the net.  Between him and Patric Hornqvist, Nashville should be able to field two power play units that would be incredibly frustrating to play against and should be able to score at a much better pace- even if they are the ugly goals.

The final option here would be to bring back one of Dumont or Arnott.  This is the least favorable option by far to me.  This team must improve its power play and I believe retaining either does not do that.  Bringing in a player of Semin’s caliber certainly provides that potential.  Dustin Byfuglien brings another big body to the net.  To me, retaining Dumont or Arnott does not improve the power play and does not help offset the change in philosophy of focusing on getting more production from the top six and less on depth scoring.

All three options complete the roster.  The first brings the payroll to $47.9 million.  The second option (Byfuglien) brings the payroll to $44.9 million.  The final option brings the payroll to $45.9 – $46.4 million.

The latter two options actually allow the Predators to stay within their current budget, although only one of those options helps the Predators in my opinion.  The first option however, has a potentially much higher reward, for only a slightly higher risk- in my opinion.

Down the Road

Next year, Steve Sullivan’s $3.75 million comes off the books.  The Predators begin paying an additional $1 million for Shea Weber.  That’s a net of $2.75 million to work with to fill the vacant top six role- that’s with a full $6 million already allocated to an elite forward.

If next season sees a deep run in the playoffs and/or increased ticket sales, the budget could potentially go higher.  If an other-than-elite forward was not brought it, then there’s additional room to fill Sullivan’s vacant role.  If Semin was brought in and he doesn’t work out, that’s another $6 million to work with (and two spots to fill).  There’s also this kid named Radulov that will be free to return to the team after next season as well- for a nice, cheap price.

In two years time, it might become necessary to trade Ryan Suter.  For this reason, I believe it important to keep one of Hamhuis or Grebeshkov as well as groom Jonathon Blum to step into Suter’s role.  While one could argue to trade Weber instead, especially since the average Nashville fan considers Suter to be the better all-around defenseman at this time, I believe that Weber’s skills and assets are more difficult to replace both from within and via a trade.  As such, I consider Suter the better asset to trade if necessary.  That said, I don’t believe that trading him will be necessary.

There you have it, my impersonation of David Poile.  Have fun with it.  Or not.

The rollercoaster has reached heights that many across the league didn’t think possible in consistently staying around the 5^th or 6^th seed in the Western Conference.  For Nashville fans, a lot of the ride to this point has been upside down: one of the worst penalty kill units in the league is certainly not normal for a Barry Trotz coached team.  Their fans have even frequently got to experience a House of Horrors with this team when Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Klein are on the ice together.  Enough terrible writing and onto just plain bad writing.

A+

Patric Hornqvist- Hornqvist is a second year player that currently leads the team in goals (17), plus/minus (+10), game winning goals (4), power play goals (6) and is fourth on the team in points (27).  Outside of a one-game benching, he really has performed much better than anyone had the right to expect.  All of that while spending significant amounts of time on the third line.  All of his hard work and willingness to play around the net has rightfully earned him a spot on the Swedish Olympic team.

A

Ryan Suter- Ryan Suter has been Nashville’s best overall defenseman this season.  He leads the team in total ice time per game (23:59), is a +4, and is in the top six in time on ice for both power play and penalty kill situations.  His excellent play has earned him an Olympic bid as well- for the United States.

B+

David Legwand- David Legwand is an enigma to most Nashville fans too blinded by his draft position to truly understand his value to this team.  Legwand has impressive defensive skills that’s allowed Barry Trotz to pit Legwand against the opposing team’s top line night after night.  While he’s gifted offensively as well, he started very, very slowly in that respect.  Despite that slow start, he’s turned a corner since and has become another offensive threat.

Marcel Goc- Marcel Goc has been a pleasant surprise for Predator fans.  He’s been defensively responsible (+5) while still chipping in 16pts.  He’s really benefitted from having J.P. Dumont on his line.  He’s also done pretty well in the faceoff dot as well at 52.6%.

Jerred Smithson- If I could choose any word to describe Smithson’s season (and since I’m writing this, I can), it would be fascinating.  Smithson has long been considered a very good defensive forward.  He’s also very good at faceoffs and on penalty kill situations.  This season has seen him playing with Joel Ward and David Legwand.  That line is given the job of shutting down the top line every night.  While excelling at that, Jerred has discovered that he can put a few in the back of the net.  If it weren’t for the downturn of the penalty kill results, he’d easily have a higher grade.

Joel Ward- Unable to participate in training camp, yet he still has produced 22 points after the slow start.  Ward has combined with Smithson and Legwand to really provide a great two-way second line.  I can’t remember the last time Ward took a night off.

Barry Trotz, Peter Horachek, and Brent Peterson- It’s really hard to argue with 55pts and being very much in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.  That said, it’s a team whose achievements to this point are in spite of the power play units, penalty kill units, relatively flat play at home, and multiple defensive breakdowns.  Someone also has to explain the consistent pairing of Hamhuis and Klein.  The results are consistently beyond poor- even strength and on the penalty kill.

B

Martin Erat- With Martin Erat, there has been no gray (or grey for our Canadian friends) area.  Erat started the season about as bad offensively and defensively one could possibly start.  It didn’t help that he had the largest contract on the team salary-wise for this season.  Many fans were hoping to see him dealt.  And then someone flipped a switch and Erat has stormed to near the top of the team in generating points.  He’s easily been the most dangerous sniper on the team since.  He’s the only player on the team with an adjusted shot percentage (including blocks and misses) in double digits (13%).

Shea Weber- Shea Weber is Nashville’s version of Wild Thing.  Weber can shoot the puck with such power.  Unfortunately, they more often than not miss the target.  He has almost double the number of missed shots of anyone else on the team (81 to Joel Ward’s 48).  I wonder what Shea would look like with the skull and crossbones glasses and would they help?  When he does find the net, the results are positive.  Weber’s misfirings along with the perception of being hampered by an early season foot injury seems to have him a little off.  His off play is better than many others.

Cody Franson- Cody hasn’t played at the same level of Weber and Suter to be sure.  Nor has he played against the competition those two have.  That’s no reason to sell him short though.  After a less than spectacular training camp, he’s take advantage of his opportunities once called up.  He leads all defensemen with a +6 and has provided additional offense from the blueline.  He’s made a real contribution to the Predators this season.

Pekka Rinne- Pekka has not played as well as last season to be sure.  He isn’t tracking the puck as well and appears to be overplaying opponents much more frequently.  That said, he’s still giving his team more than a fair chance on most nights.  He and Dan have both been victimized a little too often by the defense in front of them.

B-

Dan Ellis- Ellis is Nashville’s 1B goaltender for good reason.  He’s having another good year even though he’s still fighting rebound control some.  Much like Rinne, he’s been left out in the cold by the team in front of him much too often this season.  Dan’s puckhandling ability has also proven useful as well.

Jason Arnott- It’s only fitting that the team’s captain best embodies the rollercoaster in play that has been the team’s season.  Arnott has been very streaky.  When inspired, he is a player to be feared.  I only wish that inspiration would strike a little more often.  As captain, I also look at Arnott when the team plays flat at home- which has occurred much too often.

Francis Bouillon- Another surprise free agent signing this past offseason.  Bouillon has really brought a steadying presence to the blueline along with a needed dose of physicality.  Regardless of his partner, he’s been a solid, solid addition to this team.

Dan Hamhuis (Jekyll)- I struggled over how to grade both Hamhuis and Klein.  Both have looked beyond terrible this season, yet both have looked really solid as well.  Since the results have been consistent (terrible together, different players when apart) I decided to grade them as such.  When paired with someone other than Klein (usually Franson), Hamhuis has been fairly solid.  He’s turned up the offense this season, while turning down the physicality however.

JP Dumont- Another very streaky player.  Dumont started the season on the top line with Arnott and Sullivan with some success.  As all three have struggled somewhat (and fought injuries), they have all struggled with consistency.  Dumont is on the rise again having found chemistry with Marcel Goc.

C+

Steve Sullivan- Sully leads the team with 29 points.  He’s still really dangerous with the puck on his stick.  The downside is that he’s second on the team in giveaways (one behind Legwand) with less ice time.  His timing at losing the puck has really been a problem for a team that is built more for a puck possession game this season.  He seems to have lost a little bit of a step as well.

C-

Ryan Jones- Started out invisible and spent a lot of time in Milwaukee.  Brought back up and appeared to hit a new gear.  He’s starting to get invisible again however.

Kevin Klein (Jekyll)- See Dan Hamhuis’s grade for the full story.  When paired with Bouillon, they’ve proven to be a solid pair.  Klein still makes a number of mistakes, but he is, essentially, a second year player (something easy to forget) at the NHL level.  Of course, he’s also from the same draft that brought Nashville Shea Weber and Ryan Suter.  He can only live on his breathtaking speed for so long.

D

Mike Santorelli- After a very strong training camp on a line with Erat and Legwand, the trio fell like a lead balloon at the start of the season.  Santorelli never rebounded like Erat and Legwand.  Being a rookie, he’s also on a shorter leash.  I’m on record wanting to see the rookies and younger players given a better chance by the coaching staff.  That doesn’t eliminate the need for those players to grasp tightly to every opportunity they have at this level.  Unlike Hornqvist, Santorelli has not been able to do that outside of some great moments in the shootout.

Wade Belak- While not given a lot of opportunities, Belak really hasn’t capitalized on the ones he’s had.  Nashville’s poor play on the penalty kill has probably had an influence as well.  That said, Predators fans have seen too many liberties taken with their favorite players this season.

F

Dan Hamhuis (Hyde) and Kevin Klein (Hyde)- This is just the damndest thing.  These two go together as well as oil and water.  Not only do they consistently not play well together, they unfortunately get plenty of opportunities to prove that.  Knowledgeable Predator fans have noted Klein’s propensity for not communicating on the ice (notably SLake).  While that would certainly contribute to the problems, one would think it would equally affect his other partners.  That really hasn’t been the case.

Incomplete

All of the following players have been in and out of the lineup enough that I can’t give them a fair grade.  All have made some positive contributions to the team this season at one time or another.

Jordin Tootoo

Cal O’Reilly

Alexander Sulzer

Dave Scatchard

Colin Wilson

Andreas Thuresson

Nick Spaling

Final Thoughts

Firstly, I have to apologize for another long spell without an entry.  The holidays, work, and a lack of televised games really has taken their toll on me.  Since we are about to kick off a new, several month-long project at work, I hope to be able to devote more time to another occupation I love.

Finally, I close by passing along the information for local Nashville fans that Eric Yutzy is leaving NewsChannel5.  For those in the Nashville area, you already know that the enthusiasm and professionalism that Eric brought to the Nashville airwaves were the best of the best.  His efforts in reporting the hockey news were trumped only by his willingness to come to the message boards and talk hockey.  For those that would like to leave their well wishes for Eric, he’s posted his goodbye’s on the official Predator forum.

Perhaps the most stunning story he’s ever brought to us is the story of Chase Donnell.  If you’ve never watched the amazing and heart-wrenching video, please do so.

Eric, good luck in Indianapolis.  It would be an understatement to say they are getting a fine sportscaster.

Anaheim Ducks- For a team that was so hot in the playoffs last year, the Quackers have really cooled down heading into 2009. They’re currently 4-6-2 and last in the Pacific Division. How much did the loss of Chris Pronger hurt Anaheim?

Atlanta Thrashers- Netminder Pavelec has been stellar so far. Very impressive 50-save effort to beat the Senators in their last game. Kovulchuk is also doing well so far, and Atlanta is simply just chugging along. 5-4-1, 3rd in the Southeast Division.

Boston Bruins- Some are worried that the Bruins aren’t doing as well as last year, but one has to remember that the Bruins are also injury-stricken right now. Right now they’re hurting, but they’ll be stronger once Savard and Lucic come back. They are also getting stiff competition within their division from both Ottawa and Buffalo. 6-6-1, 3rd in the Northeast Division.

Buffalo Sabres- Currently the owners of the best record in the NHL (in terms of W/L/T, not points or GP), the Sabres have stunned some critics and pleased others, with an 8-2-1 record. Goalie Ryan Miller holds a Top-5 spot in all stat-aspects of goaltending, and rookie Tyler Myers has just been locked up for 3 years. Currently 1st in the Northeast Division, and 3rd in the Eastern Conference. It should be noted that they have only played 11 games.

Calgary Flames- Have already been labeled as Canada’s best bet for winning a Stanley Cup. Currently with a 7-4-1 record and 2nd in the Northwest.

Carolina Hurricanes- No team has been as big a disappointment as the Hurricanes, save for maybe the Maple Leafs. I’m hurting for these fans in Raleigh. What happened? How can the team that challenged the Penguins in the 2009 ECF fall so far? Carolina currently has a 2-8-3 record, a whopping 7 points, and are 1 point away from being the worst in the league. Some say that Paul Maurice’s days behind the Hurricanes bench are numbered. I might agree.

Chicago Blackhawks- Starting off the season as win a few, lose one or two, the Blackhawks are still looking to hit their stride and really take charge of their division and conference. I’ve seen several blogs and articles that have predicted Chicago to make a deep run to the Stanley Cup. They’re currently 8-4-1 and on top of the Central Division.

Colorado Avalanche- Currently the most surprising team in the league…I mean, honestly- who expected them to have a 10-2-2 record? I’ll be honest, I sure didn’t. Hockey fans in Denver are loving it, and at the same time hoping that this is the status quo and that the roof won’t cave in. Memories of last year’s cellar-dweller finish still remain. Currently first in their Northwest Division and the Western Conference.

Columbus Blue Jackets- Heading into this season following their first-ever postseason appearance, the Jackets are looking to keep Ohio on the hockey map. Mason needs a repeat performance of last year to help this squad along. They’re 7-5-1, good for 2nd place in the Central Division and 2 points behind Chicago.

Dallas Stars- Okay, this is where this blog starts to get boring. I don’t know much about the Stars. All I can say is that they are 6-3-5, and are tied with NYI for the most games pushed to OT. Those 5 points are the reason they’re 6th in the Western Conference. The team is looking at Marty Turco to lead them, but they’re currently 4th in the Pacific Division.

Detroit Red Wings- On the bubble, either on their way to another Stanley Cup postseason or ready to fall from prominence. The loss of Marian Hossa is hurting them, along with several other key injuries, like Flippula. 5-4-3,  3rd in the Central Division and 11th in the Conference. Fans in the Motor City are hoping they turn it around, pronto.

Edmonton Oilers- Another team that I haven’t been following that much…but from what I can surmise by looking at the stats, it seems like the Oil are another team that is just chugging along and doing just fine, thank you very much. A 7-6-1 record is good for 3rd in the Northwest Division, and 9th in the Western Conference.

Florida Panthers- I still believe that there is a huge gap in their roster following the departure of Jay Bouwmeester. After threatening to make the postseason last year, the squad from Sunrise is sitting low with a 4-7-1 record, and 4th in the Southeast Division.

Los Angeles Kings- Another surprise team, although I cannot say that I am shocked to see them where they are. The management has been investing in young talent for years, and now they’re reaping the rewards. Veterans like Smyth and Scuderi have helped steer the youngsters, and it seems that successful hockey is back in the City and Angels. They are 8-4-2, 3rd in the (all of a sudden) competitive Pacific Division and 5th in the Western Conference.

Minnesota Wild- They failed to make the playoffs last year, and are hoping to change that this year. However, they are currently last in the Western Conference and have a 5-9-0 record, their most recent win a 2-1 victory at Pittsburgh (I was in attendance, it was a great game). It’s another team that I don’t know much about, but it doesn’t take an expert to see that something is awry in St. Paul.

Montreal Canadiens- The big chemistry experiment is still underway in Montreal, and so far has yielded so-so results. The Habs just came off a 5-4 SO win over rival Toronto, and have not lost in an OT/SO yet. They’re playing .500 hockey with a 7-7-0 record, and every fan is waiting for the day the team comes together. 3rd in the Northeast,  and 7th in the Conference. They have the talent, so what’s keeping them behind?

Nashville Predators- I only watched one game of the Preds’ this year, against Buffalo. It was a 1-0 game, in Buffalo’s favor, but it also was a goalie duel. The two teams seemed very evenly matched, but aside from that I am inexperienced with Nashville hockey. They’re 6-6-1, and 4th in the Central Division.

New Jersey Devils- Currently 8-4-0, and picking up where they left off last year. After being eliminated by Carolina in Game 7 last year, New Jersey is playing hockey with a vengeance, and were the 2nd team to beat division-foe Pittsburgh this season. I am still unsure about Marty Brodeur- some say he’s at his best, some say he’s past his prime. In either case, goaltending is clearly the Devils’ strong point with Brodeur and Clemmensen. They’re 3rd in the highly-competitive Atlantic Division.

New York Islanders- Financial struggles, a bleak future, a crumbling arena…and a #1 draft pick that is tearing it up. Sometimes I feel as if the league is watching the Isles, and secretly hoping they rebound. Me? I absolutely do. They have one of the best histories in the league, loyal fans, and it would be a shame for them to move…but aside from that, they’re currently on the rebound and climbing out of the cellar with 4-4-5 record and a current 3-game winning streak. They’re still last in the Atlantic Division, but 10th in the Conference.

New York Rangers- After one of the hottest starts in the league, the Blueshirts have cooled down recently. Fans are enjoying Tortorella behind the bench and it seems as if the Rangers have things back in order. Lundqvist can steal games, and he just did by blanking the Bruins 1-0 in their lastest game. They’re 9-5-1 and 2nd in the Atlantic Division, 4th in the Eastern.

Ottawa Senators- Another team that I do not follow…at all…despite the fact that they’re in the same division as my Sabres. I do know that some people still believe that they’re hurting without Dany Heatley, but Alex Kovalev has added some spark to the Sens. They are currently sitting 2nd in the Northeast, 6th in the Eastern Conference, and have a 6-4-2 record thus far.

Philadelphia Flyers- Have the Broad Street Bullies returned? Philly fans like to think so. Adding Chris Pronger from Anaheim seemed to be a blockbuster move for the Flyers, but their current 6-4-1 record is disproportionate to what fans were expecting. Personally, I don’t think Philadelphia has anything to worry about, and I have seen several predictions that place the Stanley Cup in the City of Brotherly Love. They’re 4th in the Atlantic, 8th in the East.

Phoenix Coyotes- This is a team that I am so glad is doing well. If any team needs to win and in a hurry, it’s the Coyotes. Shane Doan continues to be the heart and soul of the team, and the ‘Yotes boasts one of the best netminders currently in the league- Ilya Bryzgalov. I sincerely hope the Coyotes keep their winnings ways alive- they are 9-4-0, 2nd in the Pacific and 4th in the West.

Pittsburgh Penguins- The reigning Stanley Cup Champions completed one of the hottest starts in NHL history, and currently sit on top of their division, conference, and the league with an 11-3-0 record. The Penguins’ Goligoski has the best +/- rating in the league with a +12. The Penguins are looking to return to the Stanley Cup Final, and are on pace to do just that.

San Jose Sharks- After a winning the President’s Cup in 2009 and being eliminated in the first round by the rival Ducks, San Jose is another team that is playing hockey with a vendetta. After a slow start, they have won 5 in a row and currently boast a 10-4-1 record, good for 2nd in the Western Conference and the top spot in the Pacific Division. Was acquiring Dany Heatley the final piece in the puzzle?

St. Louis Blues- Off to a rough start in October, they’re sitting 5-6-1 and last in the Central Division. They’re hoping to make it back to the playoffs, but won’t do so if they continue the un-inspired play that’s been plaguing the Blues bench. Another team that I have to watch more of.

Tampa Bay Lightning- A painful season last year has made some Bolts faithful weary, but Tampa Bay is banking on rookie Hedman to inspire the team and fanbase. Tampa Bay is a confusing team, because they have top-notch talent in St. Louis and Lecavalier, but nothing to show for it.  They have a very mediocre 4-3-4 record, and sit 2nd in the Southeast Division, 8 pts behind leader Washington. So the big question is, what is wrong in Hockey Bay, USA?

Toronto Maple Leafs- Now, this is where it gets embarrassing. I predicted that the Leafs would be the team to watch in 2009-2010, and while there is still a chance that might happen, right now things are not looking good. I thought the additions of Komisarek and Gustavsson would have sparked this team. Off to one of the worst starts in team history (and let’s not forget, they’re original 6 so that’s a crap-ton of history), the fans are finally getting sick and tired of sky-high prices and cellar-dweller performance. GM Brian Burke better think on his toes, because the Leafs’ 1-7-4 record is downright embarrassing, and ticket sales are starting to show it. They’re currently last in their division, conference, and the league.

Vancouver Canucks- Also believed to be Canada’s second chance at winning the Stanley Cup. They’re in a tight spot right know with Luongo injured, but their offensive prowess makes up for the loss. Right now they are playing .500 hockey, a 7-7-0 record- the same as the Canadiens. I personally believe that the Canucks will eventually hit their stride at start winning at GM Place- the only question is, when?

Washington Capitals- Looking at another return to the postseason, and their October has proved to be successful. They are banking on Ovechkin to be the rally point for this team and currently are 8-2-4, good for first place in the weak Southeast division and 2nd in the Eastern Conference.

The current standings for the Conferences, and if the Playoffs started today, who would go:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Pittsburgh, 2. Washington, 3. Buffalo, 4. New York Rangers, 5. New Jersey, 6. Ottawa, 7. Montreal, 8. Philadelphia

9.Boston, 10. New York Islanders, 11. Tampa Bay, 12. Atlanta, 13. Florida, 14. Carolina, 15. Toronto

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Colorado, 2. San Jose, 3. Chicago, 4. Phoenix, 5. Los Angeles, 6. Dallas, 7. Calgary, 8. Columbus

9. Edmonton, 10. Vancouver, 11. Detroit, 12. Nashville, 13. St. Louis, 14. Anaheim, 15. Minnesota

That’s October in a nutshell. I tried to not insult any team (although in some cases, it cannot be helped), in an effort to avoid any anger towards me. If anyone has comments or questions, please leave them. Here’s to another exciting month of NHL hockey!

So it goes for the Nashville Predators.  The Predators enter tonight’s game with the Minnesota Wild in 14^th position of the Western Conference standings.  They have the worst power play success rate in the league.  They have one of the worst penalty kill units in the league.  They are averaging a paltry 1.8 goals per game, while allowing 3.3 goals per game.  Many of the veteran players that the coaching staff leans on are either injured or in a slump of epic proportions.  There are signs of desperation by the coaching staff in that they are attempting nearly every possible combination of players in an attempt to get something going offensively.

All of that has led to columnists and bloggers suggesting everything from firing Barry Trotz (Mike Barnes @ Section303.com), making wholesale line changes (myself), pointing out the problem areas (Mark Willoughby @ HockeyIndependent.com), and more.  Most of us have also made our own suggestions from the safety of our computer keyboards (not to disparage our efforts).  Is there hope?  I think so.

Firstly, Nashville can still be seen in the review mirror.  Within the Central division, Nashville is 2pts behind St. Louis, 3pts behind Detroit, and 5pts behind the 8^th seed in the Western Conference in Columbus.  That’s three or four games.  While that can still be said, they have time.  Of course, it’s imperative that they make a move quickly.  Now is the time to make that move.  November, with 8 home games, has the second most home games of any month (with March having the most at 10).

Quite frankly, the players that are slumping are the players that are just too talented to stay in their slumps forever.  Martin Erat has been the worst player on the ice most nights.  Steve Sullivan has been almost as bad.  Those two players typically have the primary responsibility to bring the puck into the offensive zone with speed.  Their problems have spread to their line mates.  Their inability to get the puck into the zone has affected the shot totals for others like David Legwand.  Defensively, Kevin Klein is regressed very badly from last season.  Dan Hamhuis has been in a slump as well, and their combined slump has really exacerbated things.  They can’t all continue in this fashion.  Fortunately, for those that do, it appears that the coaches are prepared to make some changes in keeping a full roster complete with seven defensemen.

There have been some bright spots for the Predators.  Shea Weber and Ryan Suter continue to be extremely solid for this team and also look to be just as offensively potent (although they need help to prevent teams from just locking in on them).  Colin Wilson and Patric Hornqvist have been the best forwards on the ice.  It appears from the practice report that the coaching staff are making extra efforts regarding the power play to induce movement and capitalize on those players that aren’t slumping.  The coaching staff has also rewarded Wilson and Hornqvist by moving them to the (perceived) top line for tonight’s game.

From the practice report, it appears that Nashville will ice the following lines tonight:

Sullivan-Wilson-Hornqvist

Dumont-Legwand-Scatchard

Erat-Santorelli-Ward

Smithson-Goc-Belak

Defensively, Dan Hamhuis returns from injury to make seven defensemen from which to choose.

I like a lot of what I see there.  The top line could allow Sullivan to focus on shooting by pairing him with the two best forwards at this time in Wilson and Hornqvist.  Both can be given the primary responsibility to bring the puck up the ice thereby freeing Sullivan from that responsibility as well.  Both can win the battles in the corner and can find Sullivan for his shot.  This line should be an effective forechecking line as well.  For similar reasons, I like the Erat-Santorelli and Ward line if the primary duties for bringing the puck into the zone and running the offense are given to Santorelli (or Suter) instead of Erat.  Running the offense through Dumont with Legwand as the shooter on that line could have similar results.  I have some concerns with the Dumont line being kept in the defensive zone, but this line has possibilities as well.  This is the line that I would ensure Weber is on the ice for both defensive and offensive reasons.  On paper, these are the best combinations of speed, grit and skill (top to bottom) that I’ve seen us ice this season.  Something about this lineup just feels right.

One final thought regarding Barry Trotz.  How seriously hot is his seat?  My personal opinion, with no support other than the overall feeling I have from reading my fellow bloggers and columnists, is that the seat is more than warm.  If David Poile believes in the players that he has assembled (and I believe he does) and the veterans continue to struggle, I think he makes a change if they fall roughly 10 – 12 pts behind the 8^th seed.  Will it happen?  I don’t think so.  I think that some of the changes that Trotz and his staff are implementing will pay dividends- starting with tonight.

We’ll see soon enough.

As a whole, the game was uneventful, staying scoreless until the 16:35 mark of the 3rd period, when Buffalo’s Mike Grier put a backhand shot past Rinne and the Nashville defense. Miller later said “Mike Grier, you are my hero” in support of his late goal to wrap the game up for Buffalo, who also fought through an extra attacker situation as Nashville pulled Rinne in the final minute.

Grier not only proved himself to be a welcome [re]addition to the Sabres squad, but a leader in both effort and emotion, telling this team to keep trying even though the Sabres hadn’t broken through until that point.

I was happy with the Sabres’ efforts in the game, placing a very healthy 42 shots on goal, and if it hadn’t been for Pekka Rinne’s efforts, the score would have most likely been much higher. Lindy Ruff also seemed pleased with the squad’s efforts in the last two games, and is looking to continue the Sabres’ 2-game winning streak against the reigning Western Conference Champions Detroit Red Wings.

The Red Wings visit The Bank in Buffalo on Tuesday, Oct 13 at 7pm.

Stu Grimson was known as one of the most fearsome fighters in the NHL, patrolling the ice for eight different NHL teams and playing 729 regular season games during his career. The Grim Reaper, as Stu was known, was not just a fighter, however. He was a solid hockey player and a leader, both on and off the ice. Once his hockey career was over, Stu obtained his law degree from the University of Memphis Law School and began his legal career with the NHLPA. After a stint with that organization, Stu and his family returned to Nashville, where his is in private practice.

Stu was gracious enough to sit down with me to talk about some hockey issues and life after hockey. Stu is articulate and affable, and talking to him feels like you are talking to someone you have known all your life. His perspectives are interesting and insightful.

Our first topic of conversation was about the current state of the NHLPA and the potential for a work stoppage in 2011. Stu believes that there will be no strike at the the end of the CBA in 2011 and that a new agreement will be in place to prevent a work stoppage. “I think you could see one of two things happen with the salary structure in the NHL. One, you could have a ceiling on salary but eliminate the floor. The floor is very problematic for small market teams such as Nashville. The salary floor and ceiling are determined by league wide revenues, and small market teams have faced a rising salary floor since the implementation of the current CBA. Revenues, and revenue opportunities, are greater in a larger market and as the league’s revenues rise, mainly because of what is happening in larger markets, smaller markets are forced to spend money they may not have. So one option is to eliminate the floor and make it easier for small markets to spend to a budget that is appropriate for them.”

“Another option is to eliminate the salary cap altogether, but establish a salary tax over a predetermined amount similar to what baseball has currently. A team can spend any amount they want for salaries, but over that predetermined amount a tax is assessed against that team and redistributed to other teams in the league.”

“The thing you have to remember and know is that you cannot purchase a championship in hockey. It takes an entire roster to win, and injuries can change the face of a team instantly. Hockey requires the contribution of every member of the team, and this is what successful teams get.”

The conversation turned to the NHLPA and its recent firing of Executive Director Paul Kelly. Stu worked for the NHLPA, and because of some on going issues did not want to discuss the situation specifically. He did say that for the Players Association to function effectively, more players had to be engaged in the activities of the PA. They cannot cede their responsibilities to the individual players reps or the leadership of the organization, in his opinion.

The conversation turned to the ice, and I asked Stu about the young players that are trying to make the jump to the NHL and what advice he would offer them. “I would tell any young player that he should do three things: listen; watch; and learn. It is not unwise to be deferential to experience. The guys that have been in the league are there for a reason, and they have a wealth of experience. Draw from that. See how they practice, how they are in the locker room, and what makes them successful as a player.”

All teams need great leadership but especially those with a younger roster. I questioned Stu about leadership and what makes a great captain and leader. “Leadership comes from the captain and other leaders in the locker room. The words and actions of a few will set the tone for the team. The best leaders and captains that I played for were extremely humble. I remember Steve Yzerman, a great hockey player and captain, answering every question that was asked of him. He was especially visible and accessible after a loss. That was not him just being the captain, but it was who he was as a person. At times, it would have been easier to duck in to the training room and avoid some of those questions, but he didn’t. He was a leader.”

Stu was a solid hockey player who carved out a career in the NHL as policeman on the ice. Naturally, our conversation to to fighting in the NHL. I asked Stu about staged fights- fights that are agreed upon and occur after the drop of the puck. “I find the term ‘staged fights’ peculiar. In my mind, there is no difference between that type of fight and a fight that occurs while a play is in progress. You are doing the same thing- letting someone know their actions will not go unpunished or attempting to change the momentum. If I asked a guy if he wanted to go at the drop of the puck or while we were skating down the ice, and they said yes, the result is the same. So I don’t think there is a ‘staged fight’.”

We talked about the scraps that often break out after a clean check that flattens a player, and his response was very interesting. “There are two considerations here. The first is that you cannot let another team appear to have physical superiority. You have to respond physically to their physical play and show that you’re not intimidated. The second is that if you are on the ice and this happens and you don not respond, you are wondering ‘What is my coach going to think?’ You were on the ice and didn’t respond and you could find your ice time limited if not eliminated. You do not want your coach negatively evaluating your play because you didn’t do your duty.”

Stu only played 30 games for the Predators when his career was cut short by an injury. We talked about life after hockey. “Even though I was well prepared for life after my playing days, it was a difficult transition out of hockey. I felt I still had games to play. As an athlete, accolades and opportunities seek you out. When you leave the game, you are staring at a blank canvas and you have to create something new and different with your life. I was able to finish my undergrad degree at Belmont (University in Nashville) through a league program called Life After Hockey, which works with each player to custom fit a program of development. I knew I wanted to continue my education and get a graduate degree, and law was the field I chose. I never thought , however, I would practice law in the traditional sense. I thought I would tend toward being an agent or involved some way in sports. And while I don’t actively seek opportunities in hockey, I don’t rule anything out.” Stu is practicing law at Kay, Griffin, Enkema, and Brothers in Nashville. Stu met my son at a Predators ticket drive earlier this year. I introduced him as ”The Grim Reaper”, to which he responded, “My life has changed and now I’m the Grim Reader.”

“Hockey taught me to be a great team mate and it taught me accountability. Come to the rink, practice hard, and do your job. That has translated to my law practice. My goal is the same as all the attorneys in our firm- to provide exceptional legal counsel. The lessons I learned in hockey have carried over to my professional life.”

I asked about Nashville and what he thought about living here. he said that when he told his wife there was an opportunity to come here, her response was “There is no way we are going to Nashville.” Stu and his family are now firmly ensconced in our community and enjoy living here. Stu is active in the community and can be occasionally heard doing color on Preds radio with Tom Callahan. You can always find him at the rink. Stu is one of the good guys, and he is a shining example of an athlete that has taken the blank canvas of his life and is creating something new, different, and worthwhile.

The Nashville Predators have concluded their preseason schedule, posting a 4-2 mark and giving a lot of young players the opportunity to lock down a roster spot. After today, when Nick Spaling was sent down to Milwaukee, the Preds roster stands at 29 players. As of this writing, there have been no further roster moves. This tells me that the coaches are doing some serious evaluation of some of the younger players that remain on the roster and that the staff may be closely watching the waiver wire to see if there are some bargains that can be picked up, especially at the forward position.

What of the 29 players that are on the roster at the conclusion of the preseason? Let’s start in the goal first. Pekka Rinne, the putative starter, had at best an average preseason campaign. His .800 save percentage belies the fact that there were some fluky goals and poor defensive coverage in front of him. Dan Ellis, currently penciled in as the back up, had a stellar preseason campaign, logging a .944 save percentage and looked strong in the net. The Predators should be solid in net with either net minder able to handle the goaltending duties. Rinne’s performance does not concern me as he was moving well, showed the good glove, and was sound positionally. I expect him to come out strong for the start of the season and have another solid campaign.

The blueline for the Predators is solid in the top four players, with Shea Weber and Ryan Suter manning the first pairing and Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Klein anchoring the second pairing. The fact is that Hamhuis has to play solid and not commit the occasional turnover that he is prone to do that puts his goalie in a difficult position. Klein is sound, but has to step up his intensity. The addition of Francis Buillon should help the D corps as his experience and physical play will be welcome. He played his first game for the Predators on Sunday against Columbus and notched a goal for the Preds. The remaining two slots are up for grabs, with a three way battle between Cody Franson, Alexander Sulzer, and Teemu Laakso competing for the two slots. At this point, it looks as if Sulzer will have one of the positions secured, and the battle is between Lasskso and Franson for the final slot (the Preds are expected to carry six blueliners to start the season). In my opinion, neither of these two have distinguished themselves enough to make this an easy call for the coaching staff.

The forwards remain the biggest question for the Preds. The top line of Arnott, Dumont, and Sullivan is set, although Sully has missed the last three games with a minor groin strain. David Legwand centers the second line with Marty Erat on one wing, and it appears that Mike Santorelli will start as the second line winger. Santorelli had a strong camp and hopefully for Predator fans will grow into that position and be productive. Speaking of production, Legwand and Erat have to produce at a higher level. Frankly, the success of this team and the potential return to the playoffs for the Predators depends on these two being productive- more so than they have been in past seasons. Rookie Colin Wilson started camp strong, but missed the last four games due to a groin strain, and it appears that he will begin the season in Milwaukee as he attempts to get healthy. I expect him to be back with the Predators before too much of the season lapses.

This team will again be challenged to score goals, and as mentioned, it is imperative that two players in particular, Erat and Legwand, have strong campaigns and improve their point production. Young players are going to be given an opportunity with this team, and they must make the most of it. It would not surprise me to see the Predators to look at possibly picking up a forward off waivers if they believe they can add consistent scoring punch to the line up. If this team is to be successful, they will have to have solid goal tending, play sound defense, and they will have to have production from the second and third lines. The margin for success with this team is razor thin, and veterans are going to have to step up their play and youngsters are going to have to produce to win.