The 4-3 score was flattering to the San Jose Sharks. If not for some spectacular saves by Antti Niemi and a soft goal allowed by Corey Crawford the outcome would not have been close. In the end the Blackhawks displayed strong character. They didn’t falter although San Jose was able to tie the score with two quick goals early in the second period.

Give the Hawks high marks for playing well in all three zones. The Sharks are a fine hockey club but they don’t match up well with the Blackhawks. The Hawks can usually dictate the pace of play when facing San Jose. Last night the Sharks couldn’t play as quickly, lost individual battles and tuned the puck over.

The Blackhawks controlled play for most of the game and had the better scoring chances. The Hawks were successful because they kept things simple. They advanced the puck into the Sharks’ zone and were able to work their defense down low. The Hawks cycled the puck but didn’t look for pretty plays. It was more of a north and south game which enabled the Blackhawks to cause problems for Niemi.

A player who once again excelled at keeping it simple was Andrew Shaw. In the salary cap era the best teams can use a pleasant surprise from players with modest contracts. There doesn’t appear to be a reason to wait any longer, Shaw can be proclaimed an unexpected difference maker.

Shaw can skate well and isn’t afraid to get his nose dirty. So far he has been defensively responsible and has avoided taking dumb penalties.

Shaw had his best outing as a Blackhawk and was credited with his first game winning goal. It came about because of his hard charging style. He plays a smart physical game and recorded three hits versus San Jose. Shaw can also play center and was a perfect 6-0 in the faceoff circle. To go along with his other accomplishments Shaw recorded five shots on goal in 16:51 of playing time.

The Hawks’ forecheck has improved since Shaw has arrived. His aggressive play appears to be contagious as Shaw looks like a keeper. Another Blackhawks who has been a pleasant surprise and is solidifying his place as a top six forward is Viktor Stalberg. He notched his fourteenth goal last night, which is third best on the Blackhawks.

It’s true Stalberg is playing with skilful players who provide him with scoring chances. What shouldn’t be overlooked is Stalberg is winning puck battles and working hard along the boards. He also finds the soft spots in coverage and puts himself in scoring position. Stalberg is converting chances and looks like true a NHL goal scorer.

Blackhawks fans have witnessed the evolution of a young player who needed time to develop. Stalberg was like another youngster with skill who also had lessons to learn.

To continue reading click here.

Follow me on Twitter @AlCimaglia

Comments can also be posted on My Fox Chicago.com

Marian Hossa was the best player in the game. Ray Emery outplayed his counterpart Al Montoya. The Hawks’ special teams were very good, scoring a power play goal and successfully killing off six Islander penalties. The key stop for the penalty-killing unit was while the Islanders had a five-on-three power play. At that time, the Hawks PK unit stood tall for almost two full minutes.

Some would say the Blackhawks were lucky to win. Hossa did score the 400th goal of his career on a fluky play. On the game winner by Patrick Sharp, the Islanders Steve Staios had a blowout. Hossa and Sharp broke out on a two on one which might not have happened otherwise. Still, the Hawks were the better team and deserving of two points.

The Islanders are a young, quick team and appear to be gaining confidence. They battled back from a 2-0 deficit and deserved coming away with a point. They seem to have found a solid young goal keeper. My suggestion to Montoya would to be to stay in the net until he learns how to better handle the puck. Thursday night, as has been the case recently, Montoya gave his club a chance to win.

The Blackhawks finally came out with a determined effort from the start. They not only scored the first goal, but also took a two-goal lead. The Hawks played with a steady effort throughout. There were some breakdowns, but the Hawks ground out a road win, and they were successful despite some questionable officiating.

Dave Bolland is skating with more jump. Johnathan Toews continues to be a force and is working well with Patrick Kane. The Sharp-Kruger-Hossa line was solid.

Marcus Kruger still must shoot more. Kruger looks to pass first almost always and is missing opportunities to score himself. Forgotten defenseman Sami Lepisto made a rare appearance and played well. I didn’t see any glaring mistakes from Lepisto and he should have a chance to play again on Sunday.

To continue reading click here.

Follow me on Twitter…@AlCimaglia

Next article will be on Monday.

The San Jose Sharks might regret not taking advantage of a shorthanded Hawks’ squad on Monday night. Maybe the Sharks took the victory for granted after taking a late first period lead. Regardless, the Blackhawks more than made up for a slow start and dominated the Sharks in the middle frame. 

The Hawks were able to get the puck deep on the Sharks and outworked San Jose along the wall. The Achilles’ heel for the Sharks is their defense. Normally Antti Niemi has been able to stem the tide. But the other night Niemi’s five hole was open and the Hawks shooters were dead on target. Give all the credit to the Blackhawks who had to take advantage of home ice and were able to skate away with two points. 

Not tough enough? 

Much has been made of the lack of physicality of Hawk defensemen. The Chicago blueliners thrive because of what they can add to the offense, they aren’t known for clearing the crease. Sometimes  Hawk defenders don’t have the size to win battles in front of their goal. It would be nice to have a couple of bigger defensemen because they are targets throughout the season. Since the rule changes defenders take a lot of physical punishment. 

Although the defense is not comprised of bangers the Hawks aren’t a soft team these days. When they play their game the Blackhawks win the majority of one on one battles. Physicality can be measured in different ways and as a group the Hawk forwards are tough to play against. 

One part of the Blackhawks’ game which exhibits physicality is their play along the boards. 

I don’t know of a better forward along the wall than Jonathan Toews. Patrick Sharp is very good also, and pound for pound Patrick Kane more than holds his own. In fact all of the forwards know how to use their stick and position their bodies to win puck battles. 

Ever since Joel Quenneville became head coach the Hawks have proved to be a tough team to play against along the walls. Sometimes the problem is the Hawks don’t get pucks in deep enough, but that wasn’t the case in the second period versus the Sharks. 

The Sharks weren’t as determined and lost most of the puck battles. The end result was the Hawks were able to control the play and the Sharks couldn’t keep up. San Jose took penalties and was dominated in every phase of the game.  

San Jose couldn’t do much in the final forty minutes, including winning faceoffs. The Sharks are third in the NHL in faceoff win percentage but the Hawks were still better at the dot. 

The best players on San Jose disappeared. The Hawks showed that strong structured play can be successful despite key injuries. The San Jose defense looked slow and couldn’t match the intensity of the Blackhawks. 

Being a successful puck possession team requires two elements. 

The puck must be controlled with good passing and by chipping it into correct areas on the ice and then retrieved. This next fact is as important as the first. …

When there is a turnover, one on one battles must be won to get the biscuit back as quickly as possible. It is in that way the pace can be pushed and opponents can be dominated. 

Interestingly, Niemi and the Sharks bounced back on Tuesday night and rallied to beat the Stars in Dallas. The talented and underrated Loui Eriksson will most likely be out of the Stars’ lineup for awhile. Eriksson apparently suffered a concussion against San Jose. 

Guessing and projecting….  

Last year, to achieve a playoff berth in the Western Conference 95 points was required. Detroit finished fourth last season with a total of 102 points. 

Currently the Blackhawks have accumulated 84 points through 70 games. My feeling is it will take at least 96 points to secure a playoff berth which means the Hawks need to capture 12 points in their final 12 games. 

To finish fourth in the Western Conference my guess, and I mean my guess, is it will take around 103 points. The Hawks would need to play at a brisk pace to capture 19 points in 12 games, but it is possible. It would be more likely with a healthy Dave Bolland and Brian Campbell. 

To follow up on a recent point made about injuries….Last season the Blackhawks’ man game lost total stood at 220, curently it is 87. 

Now let’s take a look at the remaining games.  

The Hawks take to the road to play the Stars and Coyotes and then return home to face the Panthers and Ducks. The four games will cover a stretch from March 15 until March 26. Now the Hawks may have caught their only favorable scheduling break considering the injuries to Bolland and Campbell.

Over the past two seasons the Hawks have had a great record in the second half of back to back games. But if they continue to play predominately with only five defensemen, it wouldn’t hurt to have days off between games. 

Maybe with continued solid play and some luck the Hawks will capture six out of a eight upcoming points. At least that should be the goal because the schedule will then turn more challenging. 

A winning record in the four upcoming games is extremely important. The month ends with a bang as the Blackhawks take to the road to face the Red Wings and Bruins. 

April begins with a road game versus Columbus. The Hawks will then return to the United Center to face the Lightning. 

Next the Hawks play back to back games. They go on the road to play the Habs and then come home to face the Blues. The regular season concludes with a home and home versus the Red Wings. 

The road to the playoffs won’t be an easy one.  

There are some difficult road opponents and there won’t be any breathers after March 28. The Blackhawks will finish up the 2010-2011 campaign by playing eight games in 14 days. Getting everyone healthy and staying that way will be more important than ever. 

Taking into consideration the entire season the Blackhawks couldn’t have had a less favorable schedule.  The NHL can only do so much because the United Center is a very busy place. But the schedule makers didn’t do the defending Stanley Cup winner any favors. 

After a short summer the first two months featured a very congestion schedule. The Hawks began the year at a playoff like pace and the end of the season is not any better. 

But there is no whining in the NHL and nobody feels sorry for the Champs.

What also has to be considered is this is as good as it has been for Blackhawk fans since last spring. It’s probably best to not hesitate, just embrace the current winning streak and hold on tight. There are a few things which still appear iffy. Certainly there’s a risk the quest for a playoff berth could end with a thud, but for now it’s time to be optimistic. 

After the trade deadline acquisitions Stan Bowman leaves himself open for some criticism, but his real test will be this summer. The young GM’s time to shine could be at the NHL Entry Draft. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Bowman was very active and took big strides toward retooling his team then. 

The Hawks recent acquisitions were Michael Frolik and Chris Campoli.  Both players could be around in Chicago next October if all goes well.   

In some ways Bowman went out to improve his team today but also had an eye on the future. This is audition time for Frolik and Campoli. If both show well, the Hawks could gain a couple of reasonably priced players for next season. 

It’s a red flag when a player who is in the final year of his contract struggles to produce. Maybe Frolik is experiencing a sophomore slump a year late. At first blush Frolik appears to be a useful player for the Hawks’ attack but I’m not sure where he will fit in. It would be better if he could play center on a regular basis. 

My view on Campoli is basically the same as Frolik. He could be a good addition although I’m not sure what role he will play. 

Campoli appears to be somewhat like Niklas Hjalmarsson except he has more offense but maybe isn’t as good defensively. Unfortunately Campoli hasn’t been considered a crease clearer and evidently management doesn’t feel that area is as much of a concern as most fans. Both Hjalmarsson and Campoli could be on the roster in the fall, but that wouldn’t be my bet. 

Before I would give a second round draft pick for any defender they would have to be able to kill penalties. Maybe Campoli will fill that role otherwise all that was replaced is Jordan Hendry. Maybe Bowman had to wait until the last minute and by that time Campoli was the best option. Hopefully he will be able to share the load and help shore up the defense. 

The Hawks offense may still undergo some tweaking but their current defensive pairings make little sense. The only real reason to split up Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook is to allow them to save some energy. That strategy would make sense if their minutes were reduced. 

Playing Keith with Nick Leddy doesn’t help spread out the minutes or take the heat off of Keith. First off it isn’t Leddy who is turning and chasing every puck that gets chipped into the Hawks zone. Young Leddy is a talent and someday will be a solid defender. But at times he is physically overmatched and opponents will target him.

On Wednesday night the Flames exploited Leddy and made Keith work very hard. That’s the biggest issue, Keith doesn’t catch a break. 

Leddy appears to be a mentally tough kid. Hopefully his confidence doesn’t suffer because he was rushed to the NHL and hopefully Keith won’t become more worn out.

Jassen Cullimore is the only real option for the Hawk defense. Currently Cullimore is out of the Ice Hog lineup with an injury. For at least awhile Leddy will have to stand tall. Down the road Hendry’s loss could be a big issue. 

Keith may not be the ice time leader every game but if it isn’t him it is often Seabrook. So why not play them together always? Neither is getting much of a breather. 

It may be too late to keep the big horses fresh for the post season but it wouldn’t hurt to try. Campoli and Niklas Hjalmarsson should get more ice time than 15 or 16 minutes. Currently Hjalmarsson may be nursing an injury, and that doesn’t help. Leddy needs to be spotted, especially at home, and sometimes Brian Campbell should be the ice time leader. 

This season, probably more so than any other time,  Keith doesn’t need to be leading NHL defensemen in playing time. Leddy is showing some signs of wear. It’s only a question of when, not if the hard minutes catch up to the top four. 

The good news for Hawk loyalists is their favorite club is as good as or better than any team close to them in the standings. 

The bad news is the Balckhawks’ playoff destiny could be decided by the nine upcoming contests with Eastern Conference opponents. There is less familiarity with those foes and only three of the nine games will be held at the United Center. If the Hawks can win all of the home games they should be able to have a winning record against the East. 

At least the Blackhawks won’t have to worry about giving their opponents from the East a token point in a deadlocked contest. Wins are needed although a regulation victory isn’t necessarily required. But begining this year, total non shootout wins will be the first time breaker.  Once again there’s no need to worry.

Besides the Eastern Conference opponents the other foes will offer a stiff challenge. The Hawks still have to face the Red Wings three times and the Sharks once. It won’t be easy but nothing comes easy for this group. 

One could say being consistently outplayed in the third period will be the undoing of the Blackhawks.  But for now it’s more fun to hang on tight. 

There’s no need to worry….Because it’s too late anyway. 

Al’s Shots 

Tonight the Hawks face another desperate opponent.

The Hurricanes are coming off a hard fought victory over the Sabres. The Canes will be focused but the Hawks should have more energy to sustain a solid attack. This is another game the Hawks can not afford to lose. 

Now that Seabrook is locked up…Why not focus on future RFA Troy Brouwer? 

Brouwer is the Hawks only legit power forward, scoring 22 goals last season. Bryan Bickell doesn’t count yet. 

It seems Brouwer would be a better value now and it doesn’t make it sense to wait until the summer to re-sign him. If Brouwer gets hot he could score over 20 goals once again. 

The major trades near the deadline all involved young power forwards….Neal, Stewart and Penner. 

The Hawks could use another big goal scoring wing and they can’t afford to lose Brouwer. 

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky and Doug Wilson is benefitting from some good fortune. 

Signing Antti Niemi wasn’t on the Sharks radar this past summer. 

Even after Niemi was available, Wilson asked recently signed Antero Niittymaki if it was ok to bring Niemi on board. Niittymaki said yes because it would help the Sharks become a better team and so Niemi was signed. Wilson made those comments on XM Home Ice. 

Wilson backed into a great situation and now has locked up his goalie for the future. 

Recently Niemi signed a four year contract extension valued at $15.2 million. Niemi’s contract is slightly higher than Jarolsav Halak’s $15 million extension. 

My choice of the two would be Niemi. He is a bigger goal keeper and has already won a Stanley Cup. 

Niemi joins Kris Versteeg and Nick Boynton as ex-Hawks with a good chance at another Cup ring. 

On Monday night I took part in a podcast with Chris Block and Dieter Kurtenbach. We touched on a lot of topics. To listen go to http://thethirdmanin.com/.

The negotiations seem to be progressing at a snails pace, which shouldn’t be a surprise. 

The Blackhawks can’t replace Seabrook internally and they probably wouldn’t receive fair value if they decided to trade him. If Seabrook were to get a mega offer sheet, which averages over $6,026,868 per season, maybe Stan Bowman and company will take the compensation. If an offer sheet were to happen it would come at a price the potential acquirer felt the Blackhawks would not match. 

Last summer the compensation for players who received an offer sheet between $6,026,868 – $7,533,584 was ….Two first round draft picks (2010 & 2011), plus a second round and third selection in 2010. The compensation for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft will be similar.  

If a franchise desired to make the 25 year old Seabrook the cornerstone of their team he could receive a 10 year $65 million offer sheet. It seems a bit high but there usually is always a team willing to pay up. If the Hawks chose not to match they probably would be better off by taking the compensation rather than forcing a trade. 

Even before Dustin Byfuglien’s new contract Seabrook probably wasn’t going to receive an arbitration award for less than $5 million per season. Now, $5 million is probably the floor for Seabrook’s next deal. 

My guess is if Seabrook decided to remain in Chicago for the next decade he would sign for less than $6 million per season. But as we will discuss, Seabrook may not want to make such a long commitment. In any event Seabrook will earn above $ 5 million if not $6 million per season going forward. 

There will be a great deal of interest for Seabrook on the trade market. But if the Hawks are going to retool this summer trading Seabrook shouldn’t happen. 

Realistically the only other 25 year old defenseman in the NHL with a stronger resume than Seabrook is Nashville’s Shea Weber. 

Both are restricted free agents this summer and if Weber signs first, Seabrook will be in higher demand. Weber is also arbitration eligible and offer sheets could be coming his way too. Nashville knows they will have to pay up or they will lose their young star. 

Seabrook doesn’t need to be in a hurry.  

Even if Weber takes a hometown discount from Nashville his next contract could still average $6 million for a three or four year term. Maybe higher as Weber could almost dictate his own terms. In many ways Weber is the Nashville franchise and they can’t afford to lose him. The Predators could ink him to a mega deal, which should also be great news for Seabrook. 

Barring a serious injury there is only one real concern for Seabrook. 

How long does he want to remain a Blackhawk? 

If Seabrook’s choice is to stay in Chicago for only one or two additional seasons then it is wise to hang out. If Seabrook takes the process through arbitration he will receive a nice raise. If an offer sheet happens, and most likely will, Seabrook is still in great shape.  Either way Seabrook is going to be a wealthy man. 

For Seabrook there is only one real downside to an offer sheet. That is, Seabrook could have to go to a city where he wouldn’t want to play. Bowman is hoping that bothers Seabrook because the Hawks really have no other leverage. But a big sack of money usually makes a destination more desirable.  

Most likely teams selecting in the bottom five of the first round in this summer’s draft would gladly ship draft picks to Chicago as compensation for Seabrook.  

If a GM is going to give up two first round selections, etc., it would make a lot of sense to do so for a 25 year old stud defender. Also teams drafting at the bottom of the first round should have a better chance of winning a Stanley Cup. That’s another positive for Seabrook. In that case he wouldn’t have to deal with an all out rebuilding process. 

Seabrook is in a win-win situation.  

In general, very good defensemen are in short supply. Big, twenty five year old, skillful defenders who have already won a Stanley cup are a rare find. 

By all accounts Seabrook loves Chicago. His playing partner is also a very good friend. When Duncan Keith signed his long extension he mentioned the Hawks need to resign his partner. 

There could be some trepidation on Seabrook’s part to sign a really long term contract to stay in Chicago. 

It wasn’t long ago the Ottawa Senators were the talk of the NHL. Unlike the Blackhawks the Senators got to the Stanley Cup Finals but didn’t win. Ever since then the Senators have made a 180 degree turn. 

In 2007 the Senators had young budding superstars, Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza, their edition of Kane and Toews. Ottawa also had a veteran star like Hossa, in Daniel Alfredsson. The Sens had a core which most franchises envied and now they can’t dump salaries fast enough. 

The management group in Chicago is much different than in Ottawa, but things can quickly change for the worse. In only four seasons the Senators have gone from the penthouse to the outhouse. 

Maybe, just maybe, Seabrook is wondering if signing an eight or ten year contract extension to stay in Chicago is a wise decision. The Hawks probably would like a long commitment so they can lessen the cap hit, but Seabrook could have some doubts. 

Although Hossa is signed on for a number of years as is Keith, Kane and Toews are under contracts for only four more seasons. Campbell is inked through the 2015-2106 campaign. Seeing that only Keith and Hossa are signed longer than five more years, maybe Seabrook doesn’t want to commit to a mega long term contract. 

Seabrook has to consider everything. Does he want to align himself with Kane and Toews and then try to hit the jackpot again? A 30 year old, top pairing defender will still be considered very valuable.

There is a chance the Hawks will want to shuffle the deck this summer and not include Seabrook in their plans. That wouldn’t be my choice, Seabrook probably hasn’t hit his prime.  

The Hawks have paid for Seabrook’s education and for those thinking Weber could come to Chicago instead…Not likely. If Weber is available he will be more expensive and is probably not a viable option for Bowman.   

Even if the Hawks wanted to trade Seabrook they probably couldn’t get a decent return at this point. Those teams which can afford him might find it easier to write an offer sheet. 

The Hawks will be in a better cap situation this summer, and should be able to justifying paying Seabrook a hefty raise from his $3.5 million salary of this season. I’m thinking some changes to the core of the Blackhawks could happen over the summer, but dealing Seabrook would be a mistake.

This is not the same conundrum the Hawks faced with Antti Niemi.  In the summer Bowman did what he needed to and was able to play hard ball. Niemi knows that so well, but this time the Hawks don’t have the upper hand. 

There are some similarities as both players are restricted free agents with arbitration eligibility. But that is where much of the comparison should end. 

Niemi was in a lose-lose predicament.  

Despite what many believed, Niemi had little leverage as the Hawks had only a small amount of available cap space. My sources indicated Niemi was never offered a hefty raise by the Hawks. Even before the Niklas Hjalmarsson offer sheet fiasco, Niemi wasn’t going to get rich by staying a Blackhawk. 

Blackhawk management banked on a soft goalie market. The Hawks’ GM then rolled the dice on arbitration. 

If Niemi’s award would have come in at $1.5 million or less the Hawks might have paid him. But Bowman was already backstopped with Marty Turco for $1.3 million. The Hawks weren’t in a panic. If Niemi was originally the Hawks’ Plan A, they would be content with Plan B. 

Hawks’ management made their choice and Niemi didn’t really have any wiggle room.

Niemi also wasn’t going to be offered a contract by another franchise for higher than the arbitration amount. In essence a ceiling was set. A much as anything else, Niemi was a victim of bad timing. 

Unlike Niemi, if the Seabrook negotiations are not resolved before this summer he will have the advantage.

Seabrook is holding all the cards and also will soon have a big stack of chips. It’s only a question of where.

Basically players were not put in a position to succeed and more often than not the team wasn’t successful. Almost always it was not a case of players not providing effort. Mostly the wrong type of effort came about because players were asked to perform beyond their capabilities. It became difficult to watch because the outcome was so predictable and the losses continued to mount. 

Years ago many of my blogs included questions. There was so much uncertainty because the picture was always cloudy. The questions needed to be asked but the correct answers were not always obvious. 

After the recent injuries and this summer’s salary cap purge the Blackhawks haven’t come full circle but there are some disturbing similarities.  

Let’s start with a few questions. 

Has a team which leads the league in goal against in the third period ever qualified for the playoffs? 

Since 2000 it hasn’t happened, and probably seldom if ever before that period.

Last year the Anaheim Ducks came rather close, as they missed qualifying for the playoffs by six points. 

Teams which hold the ominous honor of leading in third period goals against usually finish near the bottom of their respective conferences. Normally they aren’t considered good hockey teams. 

Currently the Blackhawks lead the NHL with 47 goals against in the third period. After looking at past results, 47 goals against in the final frame is a high total after 39 games. Usually even the worse teams don’t finish with more than 100 third period goals against for the entire year. This season, the lowly New York Islanders have allowed five fewer goals in the third frame than the Blackhawks. 

Let that sink in for a minute. 

Is it just me…Or does it seem like Tomas Kopecky is always on the ice? 

Kopecky reminds me of Hawk players from the past who were in over their head. Really Kopecky can’t be faulted because he is trying. But the more Kopecky tries the more mistakes happen. 

He can’t play center effectively. Besides making 10 foot passes to Marian Hossa, Kopecky usually isn’t able to make a play. When he does do something good, like the assist on the Patrick Sharp goal he follows it up with dumb hockey, a bad penalty and frequent poor passes. 

Kopecky is not being put into a position to succeed and most on the coaching staff and in the front office must know the same. But sometimes there isn’t a better option and Kopecky is not the only player who is now overmatched. 

Unless Joel Quenneville has forgotten how to coach, Kopecky wouldn’t be taking important faceoffs. Some of the line combinations and ice time distribution has been curious. Maybe Quenneville is being forced to stick with certain players. Or simply there is no other choice for the head coach or Stan Bowman. 

This club was built around top players and when they are injured things seem to crumble quickly.

Even the loss of Fernando Pisani is significant because it changes line combinations. 

If Pisani were healthy, maybe Brouwer would go to the top line and Dowell would become the third line center. That could mean Kopecky would play wing alongside Ryan Johnson on the fourth line. It could also mean Kopecky wouldn’t play 17 minutes a night and take important faceoffs. Not to mention always being used on the power play. 

But now Quenneville’s hand is forced or there is another agenda I don’t understand. 

If there are still any believers in Rockford Ice Hog help, stop kidding yourself. In my book Jeremy Morin should be here but most likely no one else. In a perfect situation Morin would stay in Rockford and maybe come up towards the playoffs. But the Hawks are certainly not a playoff lock and Morin could be needed sooner. 

Sometimes players with affordable contracts are cheap for a reason and it isn’t because they are a bargain. 

Look no further than the Hawks third pairing, of Nick Boynton and Jassen Cullimore. 

Cullimore has played more responsibly than Boynton but the combination of the two is scary. They are playing for near minimum salaries and could still pass through waivers a dozen times before a claim would be entered. 

So far Marty Turco has been what I expected, some games very good other times sub-par. For the most Turco has been adequate, but on a struggling team just ok usually isn’t good enough. 

Turco took more than a $4 million pay cut to come to the Blackhawks, but I wouldn’t consider him a bargain.  

When Turco looks slow going from post to post, or can’t secure rebounds he appears fairly priced. Many of his acrobatic great saves come as a result of poor rebound control and the inability to secure pucks in goal mouth scrambles. 

On Thursday night the stage appeared to be set for a Blackhawks come from behind victory. 

The Sharks are one of the best faceoff teams in the NHL but the Hawks were better at the dot last night. 

Antti Niemi wasn’t at the top of his game which meant a lot because Turco wasn’t great either. In essence neither goalie would help a team which was outplayed steal a win. So all the Hawks had to do was win the final twenty minutes. 

The Blackhawks played a more physical game and outhit the Sharks by 19. Bear in mind the team without the puck does most of the hitting but the Hawks answered the Sharks’ physical challenge. 

The Hawks scored a fluke goal and one which beat the horn by less than a second to even the score at the end of forty minutes. A little luck never hurts. 

The Hawks did show up, they came with a renewed sense of determination, but in the end the wrong type of effort resulted. Two more home ice points were squandered and the Blackhawks record when tied going into the third period stands at 2-7-1. Out of a possible 20 available points in that situation, the Hawks have captured only five. 

The better teams, those which are playoff bound usually get stronger as the game goes on.  

Those clubs don’t make mental mistakes due to fatigue or inexperience late in games because they know how to win. Winning teams don’t take careless penalties because they are out of position and get caught reaching. Confident winning clubs play with the same effectiveness throughout a contest and don’t appear to scramble when the game is on the line. 

Last night the Hawks wanted to win, it wasn’t the same lay down effort that happened in St. Louis. They just weren’t good enough to seal deal.  

Al’s Shots 

Last night’s game was poorly officiated, bad calls for each team. 

The Seabrook hooking penalty was an awful call. 

The Hawks finished December 6-5-1. That isn’t good enough especially considering eight games were on home ice. 

For January the Hawks will play 11 times with seven games to be held at the UC. 

I caught the game at home last night and Edzo said the Hawks should shoot for one game over .500 while Jonathan Toews is out.

That’s probably a realistic goal but if that were to happen it could mean another wasted month.

Let’s say Toews returns January 15, which would mean he misses six more games.

Considering the upcoming competition and their current injuries the next six games might be the Hawks softest stretch for the rest of the season.

The next two games will be on the road while the following four will be at home.

Here are the next six opponents, the Ducks, Kings, Stars, Senators, Islanders and Avalanche.

Even without the captain the Hawks need to win at least four of six.

The Hawks record for January needs to be better than December.

After January only 12 of the final 32 games will be played at home.

When teams do things they haven’t done in decades it is time to take notice. Last year’s Hawks’ team immediately comes to mind.

The other night the Canucks skated into Philly and beat the Flyers. That is the first time Vancouver has won in Philly in 21 years. Granted they don’t play every year but still a significant win.

Vancouver could be the class of the West, although Detroit won’t go away.

The Sharks are good enough to have beaten the Hawks three times in a row but they seem to be a couple of players short of the Canucks and Wings.

2010 was a tremendous year for the Blackhawks and their fans.

Unfortunately the story hasn’t been as rosy this season.

To end on a positive note there are a few good things to report.

Eddie O. and Pat Foley have signed a three year contract extension.

The second printing of ‘One Goal’ will be released by the end of January.

Finally, the players will be accompanied by their mothers on the two game road trip to California.

Hopefully 2011 will be filled with positive on ice events.

To All…..A Happy and Healthy New Year

The Hawks finally had a few days off between games to recharge their batteries. The team went to the city that screams rest and relaxation for a couple of days …Las Vegas.

I have a feeling the highlights of their little junket won’t be available on DVD. The boys did arrive in California yesterday so they have had around 24 hours to focus on tonight’s battle. All work and and no play makes for a boring team. Sometimes too much is made of sleep and rest. 

Besides the upcoming road challenges from the Sharks, Kings and Ducks, let’s take a look at the next four games on the Blackhawks’ schedule. 

The Hawks come home to face the Blues on November 30. Then December begins with the Canucks, Flames and Stars skating into the United Center. 

Let’s hope the Hawks enjoyed their time off  because they will play those seven games in 15 days. Then the boys leave town for a couple of contests before returning to the UC for a lengthy five game homestand. 

By the time many Hawk fans finish Christmas shopping their favorite hockey club will emerge as a likely playoff participant or not. 

Al’s Shots 

The word out of San Jose which came my way is Antti Niemi will get the start tonight.

But I wouldn’t be shocked if Todd McLelland went with Antero Niittymaki, who has played well. Official word concerning the Sharks’ starter will be released after the morning skate.

Marty Turco will look to rebound from a bad performance in Calgary.

The audio link below is from last night’s XM interview with Jamie Shalley and Boomer Gordon. We discussed the road trip, possible trade additions and the drop off in play from Tomas Kopecky. Boomer also brought up the struggles of Roberto Luongo versus the Hawks. 

Although I couldn’t remember the name of Canucks’ back-up Cory Schneider to save my life, an interesting point was brought up. 

We wondered if Alain Vigneault might start Schneider instead of  Luongo when the Canucks come to town  on December 3. Maybe the Canucks will look to change their luck against the Hawks by leaving Bobby Lu on the bench from the beginning of the contest.

ICE CAP-10-11-23- UNCLE AL

Happy Thanksgiving to All

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

They say it’s best to go out on a high note. John Elway did it. Very few others have.

In my case, some probably think I should stay away from predictions from this point forward.

Prior to the puck dropping on last season, I perfectly called the Kings finishing in sixth place (link is here for you Doubting Thomases). Most thought I was crazy for even thinking that at the time, as the mainstream hockey media had the Kings sneaking in around 8th…if they even made the playoffs at all.

Boy have times changed. The Kings are one of the trendy picks coming into this season. It’s hard to believe, yet some even have them winning the Stanley Cup this year. Now, I’m not going to go that far (just yet).

However, after carefully reading the tea leaves, consulting with Sylvia Browne and having my palm read on Venice Beach yesterday, I’m ready. Below are my predictions for the 2010-11 season.

Western Conference

1. Detroit Red Wings

What if… they experience a rash of injuries again, like last season?  Will that be enough to finally clip the playoff wings of the infamous Detroit hockey club?  I doubt it.  They showed last year that you can basically run this team over with a Mac truck and they’ll still find a way to post 100 points.  Jimmy Howard is rock solid.  The defense is always strong.  They should be healthier than they were in the first half last year and they added Mike Modano.  He’s motivated to prove he wasn’t done yet.  I’d put him on my third line any day of the week and twice on Sunday gameday.

2.  Vancouver Canucks

What if… their new defense isn’t as strong as last year’s version?  It’s possible.  It’s also possible that Sedin #1 doesn’t play the same with Sedin #2 back in the line-up.  It’s also possible that Luongo spends the year looking more like the goalie he did in that 8-3 shellacking in LA last year than the goalie he was at the Olympics.  Any of those is certainly possible, but not probable.  If the Red Wings slide at all, the Canucks will be there to take the top spot in the West.

3.  San Jose Sharks

What if… they hadn’t signed Niemi?  Would they have still won the Pacific Division this year?  I’m not so sure about that.  That move (call it luck) gave them just a tiny advantage here.  I’m also not sure about Joe Thornton as the captain of this team.  Nearly everybody in that locker room likes to talk about there being a group of leaders on this team, not just a single person.  I’m not sure I buy it.  Yes, they win – a lot of regular season games.  But, who is the leader of this team?  Who is going to put the team on his back when they’re up against the wall?  Who knows, mark it down as TBA.

4.  Los Angeles Kings

What if… Dean Lombardi adds a high-end piece to the puzzle sometime between opening night and the trading deadline?  Well, last year I said they could finish higher than sixth place if he added such a player.  He didn’t and they finished right where I thought.  That’s not a criticism, just an observation.  Entering this year, I have a similar feeling.  Right now, they should finish in fourth.  If Lombardi tweaks the roster in a significant way, this group will challenge the Sharks…and probably overtake them for the Pacific Division.  Seeing the Kings finish the year in second place overall is not out of the question.

5.  Chicago Blackhawks

What if… there wasn’t a salary cap?  Well, then this team would be a one or two seed.  There is, so they aren’t.  I get that the core is still there.  But, I’m a high character guy.  They’ve lost their grit – or, I think we’re supposed to call it sandpaper these days.  The defense enters the year banged up too.  I’m high on Marty Turco too.  That will help.  However, can he get it done at this point in his career?  Overall, they enter the season with too many questions to slot in higher than fifth.  By March though, I expect this to be a completely different team than the one playing in October.

6.  Nashville Predators

What if… this team actually had money to spend?  From the goal out, they look solid…until you get up front.  Between the pipes, Pekka Rinne could be the most under appreciated goalie in the league.  If you want a young defensive pairing to rival the Kings’ Doughty and Johnson, look no further than Ryan Suter and Shea Weber (also a Can-Am duo).  It’s the scoring that worries me.  Last year they only had two players post more than 20 goals (Patrick Horqvist and Martin Erat) – both are right wingers.  Where is their big center?  Jason Arnott left and Matthew Lombardi came over from Phoenix.  That’s not enough to move them higher than sixth place.  They’ll still win plenty of games though due to their goaltending and defense.  They’re the tweener team in the West.  Not good enough to be part of the top five, clearly better than all the teams below them.

7.  St. Louis Blues

What if… Montreal didn’t trade Jaroslav Halak to the Blues?  Then St. Louis may be on the outside looking in this year.  Like nearly every year, seeds 7-10 are almost interchangeable.  The addition of Halak (Bernier’s former teammate in juniors) should be enough to help a Blues team poised for a bounce back year.  They’ve lost Kariya and Tkachuk, both veterans who were on the downside of their scoring peaks.  Their young talent continues to develop at a steady pace.  However, to make some noise in the second half of the season, they’ll need a breakout star.  Any team being led in points by Andy McDonald probably doesn’t strike fear in the teams listed above.

8.  Phoenix Coyotes

What if… GM Don Maloney was able shop at Saks, instead of KMart?  As has been written everywhere, the loss of Zbynek Michalek will hurt this team.  Losing Lombardi will also probably hurt the Coyotes more than it will help the Blues.  Adding Eric Belanger will help here more than most realize.  He is among the best face-off guys in the league, probably top three.  Even though he probably won’t score 30 goals, the ones he does put in the net are usually timely.  Finally, any team with Ilya Bryzgalov in net has a fighting chance each team they take the ice.  Here’s a what if… What if they never picked him up off waivers from the Ducks?

9.  Calgary Flames

What if… somebody could actually explain them bringing back Olli Jokinen and Alex Tanguay?  If so, it might be a little easier to get a read on this team.  Their goaltending is probably the only difference maker placing them a notch ahead of the next few teams to follow. Their offense is still highly questionable though.  Which is probably the difference maker when it comes to them not making the playoffs.

10.  Colorado Avalanche

What if… this team hadn’t gotten off to such a hot start last year?  People wouldn’t even be talking about this group as a playoff team this year.  Yes, Matt Duchene is an incredible young talent.  And sure, one of their executives wanted to bend my ear in Vegas last weekend about guys like Phillippe Dupuis and Brandon Yip.  However, they don’t have a true stud on defense and I’m not sold on Craig Anderson in net.  That said, it is a contract year for Anderson.  So, perhaps, he’ll perform better than projected.

11.  Anaheim Ducks

What if… they actually had some defense?  They might challenge for a playoff spot.  Maybe.  They gave up 243 goals last year, only one better than Dallas in the Pacific and only good enough for 22nd in a 30 team league.  I see nothing they’ve done in the off-season to make them significantly better.  If Cam Fowler is the second coming of Drew Doughty, maybe.  If Temmu or Koivu start to show their age, maybe not.

12.  Dallas Stars

What if… Brenden Morrow played on a more visible team?  He’d be one of the top-10 superstars in this league.  A pure warrior, similar to Jeremy Roenick of a generation earlier.  Steve Ott is highly underrated as well.  Brad Richards is playing for a huge contract next summer.  Those are the positives.  On the flip side, the goaltending is probably middle of the pack – much like this team.  Behind the bench they’re lead by Marc Crawford.  And that’s never a good thing.

13.  Edmonton Oilers

What if… this was the 2013-14 and not 2010-11 season?  Then, the Oilers would be solidly in the playoffs.  This is a team on the rise.  They have so much young talent it’s almost hard to keep track of it all.  If they had a goaltender in their system that was capable of rising up with a Calder-like season, then it wouldn’t be such a stretch to see them challenge for a playoff spot this year (that’s right, I said it).  However, they don’t have that player, nor the defensive depth just yet.  This may be one of the most exciting teams to watch this season.  But, the playoffs are not within their grasp.

14.  Minnesota Wild

What if… GM Chuck Fletcher was allowed to bring Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin over with him when he joined the Wild, after three years in Pittsburgh?  The answer is obvious, they’d be a much better team.  Neither happened, just like the Wild won’t even be close to the playoffs.  Like every team on the outside looking in, you can point to positives.  Here, it’s the goaltending.  Similarly, you can’t point out obvious holes.  The Wild have so many, they could be called the Minnesota Cheese.

15.  Columbus Blue Jackets

What if… Rick Nash took over and played like the true superstar he should be?  Well, it would be nice to finally see.  He has the potential to be a top-5 offensive threat in the National Hockey League.  However, it still wouldn’t be enough.  This team is in real bad shape.  And probably will be for several years to come.  If you can actually name more than five players on their roster, you need to get out of the house more.

There you have it.  Agree or disagree?

Just please bookmark for later.  There will be a review in six months.

What if… I’m right, again?

The Mayor
www.twitter.com/Mayor119
www.facebook.com/MayorsManor

RELATED ARTICLES on MayorsManor:

Season Preview with Pierre LeBrun of ESPN and HNIC

Season Preview with Kevin Allen of USA Today and NHL Live

Season Preview with Kelly Hrudey of ESPN and Hockey Night in Canada

Season Preview with John Buccigross of ESPN

Interview with Mike Modano

Interview with Bobby Ryan

Interview with Cam Fowler
.

The following article appears courtesy of www.MayorsManor.com …

Over the last week or so we’ve brought you season previews from around the world of hockey – including thoughts from Kelly Hrudey of Hockey Night in Canada, NHL Insider Kevin Allen and ESPN’s John Buccigross.

Today, we catch up with Pierre LeBrun, a regular across the U.S. and Canada via outlets like ESPN and the CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada.

In this exclusive MayorsManor interview he shares his opinions and discoveries from a recent trip through camps in Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Jose and Vancouver. It’s the latest in our Season Preview series – today we’re joined by Pierre LeBrun…

MM: As you went on your training camp tour, what was the most surprising thing you observed with the Kings?

PL: I was a bit surprised, and actually I think it’s a good decision, that Dustin Brown was back on the top line. They had sort of gone to so much effort to make him a second liner last year and had really stuck to that. Now they’ve loaded up with him and Ryan Smyth and Anze Kopitar. I just wonder with Dustin, after spending so much time on a terrific second line last year, why the sudden change of heart? Perhaps it’s a byproduct of not signing Kovalchuk. Maybe they wanted a little more offensive direction from Dustin. This will certainly give him a better chance of doing that, by playing with those two great offensive players.

How about over in Phoenix, that’s a real hodgepodge of parts the Coyotes have right now.  Did you get a sense of just how ready any of their young blueliners might be?

That’s going to be an area of concern for them.  In a perfect world, they probably would have wanted to give Oliver Ekman-Larsson another year to develop.  But, Michalek left July 1st and was not replaced.  They still have a pretty solid top-4, with Morris, Jovanovski, Aucoin and especially in Keith Yandle - he’s a real emerging star.  After that, it really drops off.  No doubt, there’s no doubt Ekman-Larson is going to be a player.  The question is whether he’s ready now.  From the days I spent in their camp, that was something there was a lot of internal debate on.  If he’s ready, that’s a big break for them because they have a gaping hole with Michalek gone.

The Sharks announced earlier this week that Joe Thornton will be their team captain this season.  It’s sort of a surprising move, considering he’ll be a free agent next summer.  With Rob Blake gone from the team now, who do you see as the real leader in San Jose?

Two guys stick out for me.  One is Dan Boyle, an emotional guy who speaks his mind in good and bad times.  He is absolutely the team spokesman.  He’s always been that way, even in Tampa Bay.  Another guy that I think is leading by example, with how clutch he’s already been in his young career – both for the Sharks and Team USA, is Joe Pavelski.  He let his play do the talking last year in the playoffs.  He was just uncanny, always seeming to score late to tie it or even in overtime.  That’s another form of leadership.  Eventually, Pavelski will be captain of the team.

Another captain, Roberto Luongo up in Vancouver, lost his ‘C’ this summer.  Was that a necessary move for the Canucks to take the next step forward or is this really just a story that the media and fans like to talk about?

I do think it was a little more media and fan driven than what it was realistically.  Except that, even Luongo when I spoke to him, said that perhaps subconsciously he was thinking about what he was going to say, as team captain, after the game.  It’s pretty amazing to hear that.  As team spokesman, it put Luongo in some interesting positions some nights – when the reality was he defense was brutal, but he couldn’t say it because it would sound selfish.  I think, in the end, he did find it a bit cumbersome to have to speak for 23 guys.  It’s an unusual position for goalies, unless their name is Patrick Roy.  In the end, I think it was a slight distraction – not nearly as big as everyone made it.  In a market like Vancouver, the team captain has to talk twice a day on game days and once a day on off days.  So, that’s a lot of talking he won’t have to do now without the ‘C’, or at least not as often.

Many media folks are predicting the Canucks will win the Stanley Cup this year - so we’ve already heard why they WILL win it, tell us why they WON’T win the Cup…

Luongo still has to prove that come playoff time he can be that same great goalie he has shown in the regular season and that he’s shown a couple of World Championships.  In ’03 and ’04 he was unbelievable, leading Canada to gold.  But, he has yet to translate that really, especially in the two playoff losses to Chicago in back-to-back years.  That would be one of the reasons.

Another would be, while I do like what they’ve done with Ballard and Hamhuis, essentially replacing Sami Salo and Willie Mitchell - we’ll have to see what those two can do in Vancouver.  They’ve never played in a market like this, to begin with.  They’ve never really been in a top pairing either, a one-two.  So, there is a lot of pressure on these two young guys.  They’re being asked to do a lot.  That’s still an X-factor as to whether they’re ready for this role.

The two coaches in the Western Conference who are probably on the hot seat more than anybody as we start the season are Marc Crawford in Dallas and Randy Carlyle in Anaheim.  Do you think both of those guys can survive the whole season with their jobs?

Mathematically, I cant imagine anybody being fired in Dallas because there isn’t an owner to pay the new guy or the old guy.  I think Randy Carlyle is one of the best coaches in the league.  But, he’s been there a long time and even Scotty Bowman had to exit some stops along his legendary career.  We might be getting near that time with Randy.  He does have a real close relationship with GM Bob Murray.  So, that’s certainly on his side.  However, right now I’m not too sure how enamored Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne are with the prospect of being separated, with the idea of  Bobby Ryan playing center.  That’s a real interesting gamble, on and off the ice.  On the surface, I think it’s the right decision to put a big star like Bobby Ryan at center.  Or at least try it out, maximize your assets.  But, Koivu and Selanne did come back purposefully to play together one more year.

Rank these three captains, from one to three - Shane Doan, Dustin Brown and Brendon Morrow…

Holy cow, I love all those three guys honestly.  That’s like 1A, 1B, 1C.  But, if I had to start a team tomorrow, I’d go Dustin Brown #1.  The other two would be tied for two.

Which is going to be the better third line this year – Detroit (with Hudler, Modano and Cleary) or Los Angeles (with Simmonds, Handzus and Ponikarovsky)?

I’m going to go with the LA line because Modano will have pulled a groin by Christmas.

Who will have more points this year - Ponikarovsky or Frolov?

Frolov.  They don’t play any defense in New York.

If you could only have one of these three players, who you take – Ryan Kesler, James Neal or Anze Kopitar?

I’d have to go with Kopitar right now.  Of those three, he’s the only pure-bred number one center right now.

If you were a GM in the Western Conference and had your pick of these three goalies, who would you take - Turco, Niemi or Luongo?

No question, Luongo.  He’s had his up and downs, but let’s not forget he was in goal for the most pressure packed game in the history of hockey, last February in Vancouver.  You’d have to be Canadian to understand, that really checked your temperature if you’re a human being.  And he delivered.  He wasn’t very good against Chicago, but I think people forget what he did for Team Canada.  He’s still a great goalie and I’d go with him.

Conventional wisdom says that Dean Lombardi is going to try and add a piece to the Kings at some point over the next couple of months.  Go out on a limb here, who is somebody you could realistically see coming to Los Angeles in a deal?

I’ll give you one name for sure.  If the Calgary Flames flame out, no pun intended – and decide that they need to rebuild and blow up there team, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dean Lombardi phoned Calgary about Jarome Iginla.  That’s certainly up his alley, in terms of a character guy that brings that to a dressing room.  Obviously, he’s a star quality trigger man.  So, he’s a name.  Again, only if Calgary is totally out of it.  But, I think LA would sniff around.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

For what it’s worth, he predicts the Kings will win the Pacific Division and has Vancouver atop the Western Conference regular season standings.  For some reason, he likes the Sharks to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals this year.

The Mayor
www.twitter.com/Mayor119
www.facebook.com/MayorsManor

RELATED ARTICLES:

Season Preview with John Buccigross of ESPN

Season Preview with Kelly Hrudey of Hockey Night in Canada

Season Preview with Kevin Allen of USA Today and NHL Radio

Scoop from Pierre LeBrun – Rob Blake joining the NHL front office?

The Mayor predicts the Western Conference standings
.

There are many Blackhawk fans which believe every salary shedding roster move made this summer will work out just fine. Some find reasons to justify why certain players won’t be missed. Maybe all will be fine in the upcoming season but at some point almost everyone who has departed will be missed.

My energy won’t be spent on figuring out who is to blame for Niemi not staying in Chicago. My gut feeling from the outset was that for whatever reason the Hawks front offce didn’t value Niemi enough.

Ceratinly the cap space issue was a big problem but the decision by Hawks management probaby went beyond the dollars, which most likely could have been worked out.  The Blackhawks brass decided on another direction which happened to also be a cheaper alternative.

Regardless of what lies ahead the reality is most of the Hawks players shipped out this summer happened out of necessity. Not retaining the services of a young Stanley Cup winning goalie isn’t the NHL norm. Niemi’s treatment was a bit different than those which were traded away.

Stan Bowman needed to fix his salary cap situation and was dead set not to ramp up the salaries of less experienced NHL players like Niklas Hjalmarsson and Niemi. Unfortunately for Bowman his hand was forced with Hjalmarsson, and may have had to choose between the two.

There are reasons why Niemi is gone and although it may come down to a matter of opinion for some, the rationalization isn’t very complex.

The explanation is really plain and simple, it  is there for all to see. There isn’t a need for whispers, rumors or finger pointing. Niemi may have given everyone with an objective stance the best understanding of his situation.

Here is a Niemi quote from an August 16 article from the Chicago Tribune.

“It seemed like they already had a plan without me,” Niemi said without any hint of bitterness. “I don’t think I had another choice.”

Without a doubt those two statements jive with everything I had heard before the arbitration hearing.

Maybe Niemi’s agent Bill Zito overplayed his hand, but I don’t think he had a very strong hand to play.  Once the arbitration award was given and the Hawks passed Zito was in a corner. He was fortunate to have a few options for Niemi, and in many ways getting him a $2 million contract with a top team was a big accomplishment.

Anyone who believes Zito wasn’t highly motivated to get Niemi signed before the arbitration hearing is off target. Every penny counted for Hawks’ management. Zito was well aware of that fact as well as the tight free agent market.

In the end the Blackhawks chose Marty Turco and the additional cap space his discounted salary created.

If Niemi’s arbitration award would have been closer to Jonathan Quick’s $1.8 million cap hit there is a good chance the Hawks would have anted up and Niemi wouldn’t be a Shark today.

But I won’t assume there was an official offer made to Zito by the Blackhawks better than the one he accepted from San Jose. Actually my belief falls inline with my source which indicated Niemi received no higher than a $1.5 million dollar contract offer from Chicago.

If Zito couldn’t negotiate a longer term deal with the Hawks it is understandable why he wouldn’t accept a one year $1.5 million contract.

As a fan my hope would have been Niemi would stay in Chicago for a long time, the same as some others who left this summer. What I won’t do is justify his departure by concluding an agent screwed up. Zito is probably not to be blamed and the same might be said for the Bowman’s.

Blackhawk management made a calculated decision, if they highly valued Niemi’s services he would still be with Chicago. The judgment to forsake Niemi and retain others will be discussed for a long time, especially if Antti proves he isn’t a one hit wonder.

Certainly there could be some blame assigned to both parties and if Hawk fans want to finger point they might have reason.

Maybe the general manager underestimated the offer sheet possibility for Hjalmarsson. Possibly Bowman shouldn’t be faulted and Hjalmarsson’s agent deserves the credit.

In any regard other franchises don’t fear retribution or lingering ill will from writing an offer sheet on a Blackhawk restricted free agent.

There is an upcoming Chicago RFA which will garner an offer sheet if not signed beforehand. Getting Brent Seabrook a new contract before July 1 was also a consideration in replacing Niemi with Turco.

The Dale Tallon era of Gabor sister jokes and business the NHL old fashioned way are gone. The Hawks new regime plays hard ball and doesn’t worry about making friends or burning bridges. So far their management style has helped to capture the ultimate prize. But make no mistake playing rough usually carries a cost.

Zito’s strongest play may have been to hope the Hawks would be publicly pressured to retain a young Stanley Cup winning goalie. I can’t remember another time when a Cup winning tender wasn’t kept on for the following season.

But times are different now, and the Hawks were in a precarious position.

If both Hjalmarsson and Niemi could have been re-signed for a total of $3.5 or $4 million the Hawks might have kept both. That is if the Blackhawk front office was going to sign any goal keeper for as much as $2 million for the 2010-2011 campaign.

It has to be considered the Hawks had a value assigned to their goal keeping position. In essence there was a good likelihood Niemi’s salary wasn’t going to fit.

If my info is correct, and it is plausible, Hjalmarsson was originally offered a new contract in the neighborhood of $1.3-$1.5 million. If not for the offer sheet, Hammer would have signed the Hawks supposed offer and been grateful his salary doubled. If that scenario played out maybe Niemi would have gotten at least a $2 million contract from the Blackhawks.

There is more to the Niemi story concerning the Zito and Bowman negotiations than we all know. Maybe there was some past history or personality conflicts which made for strained negotiations. Zito was known by some as a Tallon fan.

Much of the information which came my way about this saga appears to be accurate. At least the story unfolded in the same fashion as the script that was laid out to me.

If Zito was presented a three year $8 million dollar contract and passed it could be a big mistake. But I wouldn’t bet that actually happened.

My source said there was never a contract offer made to Niemi for over $1.5 million.

If you buy into my info, which was around before the arbitration hearing, Turco’s contract was already tucked away in Bowman’s desk drawer. That basically meant the Hawks were backstopped and going through the arbitration process was more a formality than anything else.

In any regard it is highly unlikely Niemi was offered a three year contract in the neighborhood of $8 million after the offer sheet was written by the Sharks.

It was obvious to me, especially after the way he played in the Conference Finals that Evgeni Nabokov was not going to remain a Shark. After the Hawks eliminated San Jose there were some interesting rumblings around.

Some of the Sharks’ hierarchy thought the difference in the series was Niemi. They felt if the goal keepers could have been switched the outcome would have been different. The same notion was discussed by those involved with the Hawks.

Niemi did not have a great series against the Flyers but he still outplayed his counterpart. He was decidedly better than every goal tender he faced in the playoff run except for Pekka Rinne. Niemi might have been running on fumes in the Finals as he was under a heavy workload once Cristobal Huet was put into dry dock.

If Doug Wilson really targeted Niemi from early on, he could have come back with an offer sheet on him. As it turned out it was to Wilson’s advantage to let things play out the way they have.

The word going around this summer was the Sharks first need was a top pairing defenseman to fill the void of the retired Rob Blake. They improved there goal tending but still have a hole on the blueline.

The Sharks acquired a good young goalie for a reasonable price and didn’t have to give anything up. For those wondering why Niemi wasn’t traded before the arbitration hearing there are reasons.

Primarily there wasn’t any need for a team to give something up to the cap strapped Hawks. There was also little motivation for Bowman to strike a deal for a high round draft pick and put together a trade with a potential playoff opponent.

I wouldn’t want to have trading Niemi for a sixth round draft pick on my GM resume. The Hawks young manager may have felt the same. Also there was a slim chance Niemi’s arbitration award would have squeezed into the Hawks budget.

Popular opinion going around the league after Wilson’s offer sheet was the Hawks would have to trade Patrick Sharp. Many NHL insiders figured the Hawks would keep their Cup winning goalie.

After Bowman publicly stated Sharp wasn’t going to be traded over the summer, Niemi’s fate was practically sealed. Once the normally tight lipped Bowman made his Sharp no trade proclamation his cell phone wasn’t ringing nearly as often.

Given the choice Blackhawk management was going to choose Hjalmarsson and others over Niemi. In the end that is exactly what they did.

Hawk fans can blame who they want as this topic will be discussed for years to come no matter how well Turco performs. The bottom line is Niemi wasn’t valued as highly by the Chicago front office as many thought.

Some believe everyone can be replaced. Blackhawk fans are hoping so.

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

It has been reported by Hockey Buzz that Antti Niemi is close to agreeing to terms with a new team. Unless something goes upside down the story appears accurate. More important, and somewhat of a surprise is that my whispers indicate Niemi won’t have to settle for a skimpy contract. 

Hockey logic and a tight goal tender market originally led me to believe Niemi would be hard pressed to receive an offer in the vicinity of his arbitration award of $2.75 million. I now think Niemi will agree to a contract for close to his award amount and could be in line for a multi-year deal as well. 

Where Niemi will end up is open for speculation. 

My thinking hasn’t changed on the Carey Price situation. That doesn’t mean Niemi is about sign in Montreal but it wouldn’t shock me if Price wasn’t in a Habs uniform come opening night. 

San Jose jumped to sign Antero Niitymaki on July 1. If they are currently interested in Niemi another trade would have to follow. From what I have heard in the past the Sharks are high on Thomas Greiss. Although all of that could be true, it is unwise to dismiss any possibilities at this point. 

If Niemi is looking for the security of a multi-year deal maybe  Edmonton or Long Island could become his new home. 

If a Stanley Cup contender is coveting Niemi’s services there would likely have to be a trade made to create salary cap  space. As in San Jose, Philadelphia would have to create some cap space and probably trade a goalie to accommodate Niemi. 

The Capitals appeared to be happy with their goal tending situation but maybe because of Niemi’s availability they are reconsidering. 

There’s no telling where Niemi will end up as there could be a team willing to make significant changes. But if whispers are correct he will receive a contract commensurate with winning a Stanley Cup.

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

The saga of “Where will Antti Niemi go” continues to garner more interest, especially now that the Thomas Kaberle trade watch is over and Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract status with the New Jersey Devils remains in limbo.

I certainly understand why some believe he could eventually sign with the San Jose Sharks, as they signed Antero Niittymaki well before Niemi became a UFA. Even I can’t full bring myself to believe the Sharks intend to go with Niittymaki and Greiss as their tandem when Niemi’s now available.

It’s also understandable why some tie Niemi with the Washington Capitals, who’ve insisted for months they’ll go into next season with the young tandem of Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth, though I believe the Caps management and its faith in that goalie pairing.

Some of the suggested destinations for Niemi however have been, to be blunt, ridiculous.

The Montreal Canadiens and Florida Panthers have in recent weeks been cited by internet rumormongers as being interested in the former Blackhawks starter.

Slow contract talks with Carey Price is the obvious catalyst behind the “Niemi to Montreal” rumors but the Canadiens remain intent on re-signing Price and according to Price’s agent the Habs have no interest in Niemi.

As for the Panthers, whoever dreamed up that destination simply didn’t do their homework, forgetting they currently have a solid goaltending tandem in Tomas Vokoun and Scott Clemmensen, plus promising prospects Jacob Markstrom and Tyler Plante in their system.

The only reason the Panthers are linked to NIemi is because former Blackhawks GM Dale Tallon is now GM in Florida but that doesn’t mean Tallon is interested in signing Niemi and creating a problem area for himself between the pipes.

It remains to be seen where Niemi will eventually sign this season but it won’t be with the Canadiens or Panthers.

Lyle Richardson

SpectorsHockey.net
twitter.com/spectorshockey

As the habitual NHL apologists continue to defend the poorly written CBA…. 

What if the CBA actually was written as if it took a year to put together rather than a long a weekend? 

Certainly the latest Ilya Kovalchuk saga would never have happened. Also the contracts for other long term, front end loaded signings would not be in jeopardy today. 

If there would have been a couple of additional sentences added to the CBA the NHL might not appear as if its rule book was written in water color.

Let’s keep this simple and move past any age stipulations and only add a couple of sentences to the CBA.

If there was a clause which stated a certain percentage of a player’s salary had to be dispersed to him in the last years of a contract, this shameful mess could have been avoided.

How about this for an added clause? 

During the last 40% of a player’s contract term, at least 20% of his salary must be paid out.  

For example, in a 10 year $100 million contract, at least $20 million would have to be paid out in the final four years of the agreement. The payout percentage in the final years possibly could be different, maybe it should be 25% or 30%, but at least there would be an exact guideline in place.

The Kovalchuk contract, which was revoked had the Devils paying him on average about $7 million in the final seven years of the proposed 17 year agreement. That amount happens to represent only about 7% of the $100 million contract value.

The additional money due in the later portion of a long term contract would make a big difference for a possible buyout.  It would also make an aging player less attractive on the trade market.  In essence the economics would make the mega long term, front end loaded contracts less likely to occur. 

As it stands now the NHL just continues to stumble along appearing as if they are re-interpreting rules whenever they must. 

What if the Marian Hossa contract is now considered a circumvention of the CBA? 

Anything can happen in the NHL but it would be hard to believe the league will mess with the Hossa contract. They already blessed the deal, but even more important he has fulfilled one year of the contract. There would be a multitude of lawsuits coming at the NHL if they tried to void the Hossa deal. 

If somehow the league did rescind the Hossa contract the Hawks might be screwed.

Most likely Hossa’s next contract would have to be shortened, which would mean a higher cap hit unless he signed for less money. Hossa’s options are limited too, so he probably would be driven to make it work in Chicago. 

If Gary Bettman made waves about the Hossa contact immediately following the Stanley Cup Finals, maybe things would be a lot different.  

Certainly Hawk management would wince at the thought of losing Hossa, but they might not have been too upset. With Hossa gone a few younger Hawks who had to be traded away would still be able to play in Chicago. 

Maybe the Blackhawks would have taken one on the chin…For the good of the league, don’t you know. 

Hossa is the most talented Blackhawk and couldn’t be replaced with only one player. Two months ago his loss would have been much easier to bear. Maybe given the choice Hawk management would rather have had some combination of Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg and Andrew Ladd instead of Hossa. 

What if Hawk fans would have chosen to believe what was written concerning Niemi’s likely arbitration award? 

There were some who wrote Niemi would really strike it rich and earn close to $4 million next season. To add to the lunacy some thought Stan Bowman would have enough cap space available to re-sign Niemi for as much as $3.5 million. 

Those which can tell the difference between a hard salary cap and a hard boiled egg knew the Hawks were going to be facing many roster changes this summer. The high alerts on the changing of personnel kicked in December 3, 2009, when the big three (Kane, Keith and Toews) were all re-signed. 

The reality is the Blackhawks salary cap dilemma was far worse than many thought. 

What if Blackhawk fans choose to blame the NHL salary cap for the break-up of a young, talented championship team? 

My thinking is the rules are the rules, no matter how misguided they might be. 

The NHL needs a salary cap and a properly written CBA. Hopefully neither today’s salary cap nor the CBA will resemble the new agreement in place a few years from now. In a perfect world the CBA would be worked on today, and polished up sooner than later. 

If the purpose of the NHL salary cap was to provide financial parity, it has failed. Many of the same franchises which lost money before the lockout are still deeply in the red today.   

As far as the Hawks are concerned, the first signal of future cap trouble started with the Brian Campbell and Cristobal Huet free agent signings. The qualifying offer screw up from last summer contributed with some unnecessary spending as well. The other contributing factor came with the overpayment of a few talented, inexperienced players. Too many young promising Blackhawks went from earning close to the NHL minimum to a $3 million payday.

Until there is a way to take back salary when attempting to trade off big contracts or some sort of a luxury tax is put in place it will be difficult to keep a young talented team together. Especially, as in the Hawks’ case, when a bunch of young players become very good all at once.

Hawk fans should be thankful management put the team in position to win the grand prize. Spending a fortune on player salaries doesn’t guarantee a Stanley Cup. Hawk faithful should realize loading up for one big swing at any championship doesn’t often work.  

The NY Yankees spend to the hilt every year and have won five World Series since 1996, which is a high success ratio. But there have been many more seasons since 1996 in which the Yanks have failed to win the World Series, some years they haven’t come close. It is also far easier to keep a baseball team together as long as management is willing to spend excessively for every campaign.

If Blackhawk fans want to lament about the summer of 2010…Just imagine what it would feel like if the Cup wasn’t in Chicago. 

There has been speculation concerning disunity among NHL players over the current CBA. It is no wonder considering there are so many players signing league minimum deals or reduced two-way contracts than those striking it rich.  

The current economic environment has helped the Blackhawks re-sign players to skinny contracts. But the salary cap and current CBA isn’t working out great for all involved. 

That’s what happens when there are more players looking for jobs around the league than available cap space. 

Al’s Shots 

I really wanted to let the Antti Niemi, Bill Zito, Stan Bowman saga rest, but not yet….

So sometime next week I will take one last look as to why Niemi isn’t a Blackhawk.

Not sure where Niemi will end up, but I still find it curious Carey Price wasn’t re-signed before the Jaroslav Halak trade. 

It has been reported the Hawks have signed Fernando Pisani to a one year, $500,000 contract. Pisani suffers from colitis and has had other health issues. 

If healthy he could add some skill and needed experience to the line-up. Last season Pisani  played in only 40 games.

It might not be etched in stone but odds are Kyle Beach will start the year Rockford.

Maybe if he has a great camp things could be different. But from what I can tell Beach does his best work in games…not practices. Beach will learn in Rockford how important  practice and preparation really is, and he will have more time to figure things out. 

blackhawskwin@comcast.net

The Hawk sign Turco for a speculated $1.75 million and save $1 million in salary cap space as Niemi becomes a UFA. The exact amount of Turco’s contract is not known but it could have been as low as in the $1.0-$1.5 million range. Chris Kuc from the Tribune reported that was the case.

Readers were prepared for this outcome.

From my blog on July 23…

I don’t believe Niemi’s contract negotiation will be settled by an arbitrator unless the Hawks have already decided to go in a different direction. There are risks for both sides in going that route, but Niemi has the most to lose.

If for some reason Hawk management is not as high on Niemi as most believe there will be an arbitration hearing involving both parties next Thursday. If that is the case Bowman has options and Turco waiting in the wings.

From my blog on August 1…

My objective opinion is Niemi will continue to improve and the Hawks should try to keep him. That said, my gut feeling is the team may still go in a different direction. Niemi was popular among his teammates and that might be the best thing going for him.

If the Hawks deal Niemi the front runner to replace him is most likely Turco. At this point if Niemi isn’t re-signed nothing should come as a shock.

Turco will probably play for the Hawks at a deep discount. Possibly he could sign here for at least one million dollars less than Niemi’s $2.75 million award.

*********************************************************************************************************************************

I do believe the players will be very disappointed by this decision. They are professionals and personnel decisions are not up to them. But it would be best for all concerned for the Hawks to have a good start to next season. That could be a lot to ask considering all of the roster changes.

Al’s Shots

Comments from Monday morning’s conference call.

Stan Bowman remarked the Hawks made a couple of offers to Niemi. He said they couldn’t work anything out and they decided to do what was best for the team. Bowman maintained there was a multi-year offer made although Niemi’s agent Bill Zito contradicts that claim.

Bowman commented Turco is hungry to win a Cup and will be a good mentor for Corey Crawford. Turco mentioned he is excited and looking forward to working toward winning the Stanley Cup.

The former Star remarked the last few seasons have been very difficult because of not making the playoffs. Turco said his health is very good and he did turn down other offers to become a Blackhawk.

Turco wouldn’t comment specifically if one of the teams bidding for his services was the Flyers. Bowman did mention that they have been interested in Turco for awhile and he appreciated his patience throughout the process.

The Hawks GM remarked the Cristobal Huet situation will now be a priority.

Bowman mentioned he spoke to Niemi at the arbitration hearing but has not spoken to him since.

Bowman concluded by commenting the team is almost set, but they still need to add a defenseman.

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

My objective opinion is Niemi will continue to improve and the Hawks should try to keep him. That said, my gut feeling is the team may still go in a different direction. Niemi was popular among his teammates and that might be the best thing going for him. 

Initially the biggest problem in not keeping Niemi is the players will be very disappointed.

When Jonathan Toews makes a pointed comment, it is best to listen, the young guy doesn’t run his mouth for no good reason. He mentioned this weekend if the Hawks were going to compete for the Cup they needed to have Niemi in goal. There couldn’t be a better endorsement for re-signing Niemi. 

The reality is there is no reason to change my original opinion the Hawks could have re-signed Niemi for $2.5 million or slightly less, in the days leading up to the arbitration hearing. 

If Stan Bowman wouldn’t make an offer above $2 million before the ruling will he pay up afterwards? 

Niemi’s award of $2.75 million is a tricky one for the cap strapped Bowman, the Hawks could catch some heat from fans if they don’t retain Niemi. 

It appears the Hawks could afford to keep Niemi and have a very inexpensive back-up such as Hannu Toivonen (cap hit $550,000) if they choose to have a 21 man roster. The cap space is so tight, according to a weekend story by Tim Sassone of the Daily Herald, Corey Crawford (cap hit $750,000) could be jilted once again and not be able to back-up Niemi. 

Toivonen was a former first round draft pick but thus far has been a NHL disappointment. Crawford hasn’t had enough work in the NHL to call him a disappointment. Crawford has played in only eight NHL games while Toivonen has competed in 61 contests.  Both keepers are only in their mid twenty’s, and it’s too early to have a definite opinion as to their NHL future. 

It appears safe to conclude if Niemi does stay in Chicago, barring injuries, he could play in 60 games or more. The Hawks would be getting a lot of minutes out of Niemi as he should be the solid number one. But one never knows with goalies, especially those only entering their second year. An important point is Niemi should be highly motivated because he will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. 

By best estimation is if the Hawks re-sign Niemi they are scraping the cap space ceiling. Another salary dumping trade could still be required regardless if the back-up job goes to Crawford or Toivonen. 

Here’s some goal tending combinations Blackhawks management is probably considering. 

A. Niemi and Crawford or Toivonen 

B. Marty Turco and Crawford or Toivonen 

C. Jose Theodore and Crawford or Toivonen 

C. Carey Price and Crawford or Toivonen 

If  a change is going to be made the team needs to quickly buy into their new number one keeper. A decision on Niemi will come tomorrow and his replacement should surface quickly. 

We already discussed choice ‘A’, so let’s take a look at the rest of the options. 

B. As written here awhile back, the Marty Turco to the Hawks rumor was not to be taken lightly. 

Turco’s contract may already be signed and in Bowman’s desk drawer. An internet story out today indicates Turco has said he won’t be going to Philadelphia. His agent has recently commented his client will be on a contender. That doesn’t leave too many available options. 

In some ways Turco appears to be on the down side of his career, although the Stars haven’t been a playoff quality team for the last couple of seasons. Turco will probably play for the Hawks at a deep discount. Possibly he could sign here for at least  one million dollars less than Niemi’s $2.75 million award. 

C. Maybe the Hawks front office values Jose Theodore more so than the Dale Tallon regime. 

The Hawks chose to pay up to sign Cristobal Huet as Theodore was also an available UFA in the summer of 2008. But those days are in the past. 

Theodore is 33 years old, one year younger than Turco. His stats from last season could be considered better than Turco’s because the Capitals didn’t focus as much on defense. He would also most likely sign at a discount to play in Chicago, but might cost more than Turco. 

D. The Carey Price angle is an intriguing one. 

This past winter, while there was a goal tending controversy in Montreal, Scotty Bowman was talking on Canadian sports radio. Normally members of a club’s front office won’t comment specifically about another franchise. Scotty has so many Stanley Cup rings no one questions what he does.  

Price was having a rough time when Bowman remarked his ability shouldn’t be doubted and gave him a vote of confidence. If memory serves me correctly Bowman stated Price should be the starting net minder for the Habs. 

So Price has a big fan in the Hawks Senior Director of Hockey, and Montreal did not re-sign him to an extension before Jarolsav Halak’s rights were traded to the Blues. I’m a long way from Montreal but that always struck me as a bit odd. 

Price is supposedly looking for a raise and a multi-year deal. He has finished his entry level contract, which including bonuses was a $2.2 million dollar cap hit.  

It wouldn’t be a stretch to conclude Price shouldn’t get a contract for more than the Cup winning Niemi. Although Montreal has some cap space, it is a buyer’s market for goal keepers this summer. 

If Niemi’s market value is agreed to be more than Price, it might make sense for each team to swap goalies. The Canadiens have a new GM, Pierre Gauthier, who doesn’t appear tentative to shuffle the deck. 

Montreal would get the Cup winning Niemi who seems to deal well with difficult situations. It will be less of a pressure cooker for Niemi in Montreal than Price who was a former first round draft pick. Niemi isn’t the best interview and after awhile the cameras could easily shift to someone else. 

Once Price was chosen fifth overall by the Canadiens in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft he became somewhat of a legend before his own time. It might be the best thing for his career to leave Montreal, and maybe the possibility exists. It could be the reason why Price wasn’t signed to a contract extension before Halak was dealt. 

In Chicago’s cap ordeal, a savings of around $250,000 could be enough of a reason for the Hawks to trade Niemi. If Price were to agree to $2.5 million contract, certainly Crawford could be his back-up for next season. 

Because Niemi’s award came in at a reasonable value he could be more easily traded. If not a sign and trade for Price, Bowman should be able to land a 3^rd or 4^th draft pick and maybe even a prospect.  

If the Hawks deal Niemi the front runner to replace him is most likely Turco. At this point if Niemi isn’t re-signed nothing should come as a shock. Maybe the young, brash Price could make his mark in Chicago. 

Acquiring the much heralded Price might be an easier sell to the young core of the Blackhawks than signing veterans like Turco or Theodore.  Maybe most Hawks fans would feel the same.

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

The Blackhawks didn’t want to bend at all, which could be smart business or a big mistake. Time will tell which decision will prove correct. 

Fans should realize Bowman seems comfortable with the possibility Niemi can’t be re-signed. Hawk management has weighed the risks versus their options and they rolled the dice. 

My information points to a contract situation which might have been settled before arbitration with an offer in the low to mid $2 million dollar range. My source indicated there weren’t any offers made by the Blackhawks over $2 million in the week before the hearing. If true, Bowman’s lack of negotiation is a telling sign.  

Although this is an unusual arbitration situation, Niemi does deserve a healthy raise. No decision would shock me unless he was awarded below $1.5 million or above $3.5 million. A prudent hockey guess would point toward Jonathan Quick’s $1.8 million dollar cap hit as being in reach for Niemi. In my estimation something around $2.3 million would seem fair. 

Niemi’s camp is probably very confident the award won’t come in below $1.8 million. On the other side the Hawks didn’t want to make a pre-arbitration offer above $2 million. 

The world knows the Hawks are in a tight cap situation. Blackhawks fans should realize the importance of re-signing Niemi wasn’t at the top of management’s priority list. Certainly the offer sheet made to Niklas Hjalmarsson applied more cap pain, but a middle ground apparently wasn’t discussed with the Niemi camp. 

Niemi will be back in Chicago only if the price is right. We will soon know whether Niemi’s worth is in line with his estimation or closer to the value the Hawks placed on him. 

Just realize the Hawks weren’t bluffing before the hearing and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they don’t budge much after the decision.

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

He indicated the Hawks have  a strategy in place dependent upon the dollar amount of  Niemi’s award.  Bowman expects the team to compete once again for the Stanley Cup and is confident in the new additions. He fully expects his young core players to be even better in the new season.

Bowman mentioned there are many goal tending options and the club will explore them depending on the result of the arbitration. He stressed there are numerous scenarios as he has tried to plot many different courses of action.

Nothing earth shaking was said, as one member of the media who asked questions didn’t  understand how NHL arbitration worked.  So some of Bowman’s time was spent explaining the process.

If you were thinking about buying a Niemi jersey to wear while watching him battle for the Blackhawks at the United Center….I would hold off on making the purchase. 

As has been stated here on a few occasions Niemi is playing with a shorter stake than Stan Bowman. The young goalie is not in control of his destiny. In many ways Niemi has a more uncertain future than most Cup winning goal keepers. 

Life is not always fair. 

Lucrative contract options could be a real possibility if Niemi’s agent Bill Zito can figure out a way to get his client away from the Blackhawks. As negotiations have creped along Niemi may feel like he is under appreciated and could have his sites set elsewhere. 

What does Niemi really want?   

Does Niemi prefer to stay in Chicago or would he rather find a job where he will earn the most money?  It appears Niemi can not have it both ways, and as time passes his situation becomes more tenuous. 

Niemi has won a Stanley Cup, maybe now his mission is more about financial security. He certainly can’t be faulted for wanting to ring the register and provide a comfortable life for his family. Maybe Niemi’s boyhood dreams did not target a long lasting career in the NHL. Unfortunately he isn’t in a position to insure a big payday, or at least not yet. 

Judging by the way money is being thrown around in the KHL Niemi probably could sign a fat contract there for nearly double what a NHL team would offer.  If a tax exempt payday in Russia doesn’t work there is always the Swedish Elite League. 

Whispers which seem to have some merit.  

Although the Marty Turco to the Blackhawks story has gained some momentum and deserves attention, recently there has been some movement in Niemi’s negotiation. Word from someone who has spoken to Niemi indicated playing in the KHL wouldn’t be his first option. But knowing what options are available may take time to evolve. 

The scuttlebutt in the Turco scenario signals he will sign in Chicago at a deep discount. Turco ends up on different team than the group which won the Cup but the Hawks could still make a lot of noise in the playoffs. If Turco plays well he has a chance to be a sought after unrestricted free agent next summer. 

Turco is at a much different point in is career than Niemi. Money isn’t as important as proving he can still be a NHL starting goal keeper. Evidently, if the rumors are true, Turco feels Chicago gives him the best opportunity to show he still has some gas left in his tank. 

The biggest Niemi re-signing hitch could be his preference on having more than a one year deal while in Chicago. He wants more security than a one year arrangement offers as he seeks to establish himself as the starter for the upcoming season.  

Even after winning the Cup it seems Niemi has some apprehensiveness about his status with the Hawks. The Niemi camp feels there will be some one year options available with other NHL clubs if the Hawks aren’t in the picture.  Once again exploring those options can’t fully happen yet. 

The conclusion to a sticky situation should be surfacing soon.…. 

Some of what has been tossed around the rumor mill could be posturing from both sides.

What appears likely is Niemi will have to soften his demands and the Hawks will have to decide if they want to sign him to a multi-year deal.  

Before the San Jose offer sheet to Hjalmarsson a two year $5 million dollar contract would have been a distinct possibility. One has to believe Niemi would sign such a deal today. The issue now is the Hawks would have to make another trade to have enough cap space to make that offer. The Marty Reasoner cap clearing move was only enough for a Bryan Bickell re-signing. 

Except For Cristobal Huet and Brian Campbell there aren’t any larger contracts for Bowman to trade. There is a better chance of no snow in Chicago during January than Huet being traded. His contract falls into the ‘have to eat’ category. 

Dealing Campbell wouldn’t be easy and it would cause a big change in the style of play for the Blackhawks. As much as some fans and media are quick to say Campbell is overpaid, he does serve a purpose. There might be a very small market for Campbell’s services, although Bowman wouldn’t want to give him away. 

Realistically there is no easy way out of this mess unless Niemi signs on the dotted line for well below $2 million per year. That might be almost as unlikely as an arbitration award above $4 million per season. 

The other outcome is easy enough too, as the Hawks could just walk away from the arbitrator’s decision. 

Possibly if the award is well below $3 million and the Hawks still decide to pass, Niemi could be traded for a draft pick or prospect. That is if there is enough cap space available to sign and then trade him. 

The clock is running, the convention is coming and the Hawks still might have a new starting goal keeper come October. 

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

I don’t believe Niemi’s contract negotiation will be settled by an arbitrator unless the Hawks have already decided to go in a different direction. There are risks for both sides in going that route, but Niemi has the most to lose. 

Even if with an arbitration ruling coming in the neighborhood of $3.5-$4 million, Niemi will have trouble.  The cap strapped Stan Bowman would walk away and Niemi would become an unrestricted free agent. Agent Bill Zito and Niemi would have to go out in the open market and most likely no franchise will pay close to the awarded amount. So even if the young guy wins he could lose because this is not the best time to seek a new job with another club. 

Maybe a franchise with cap space would be interested in Niemi and he could sign a contract for more than the Hawks would have paid him before the arbitration settlement. But it also could be much more difficult for Niemi to pad his stats for a big free agent push the following summer if he is on a non- playoff contender. Facing upwards of 30 shots each game plus many more rebound opportunities will be a lot different than playing in front of Chicago’s top four defenders. 

Bowman isn’t in the best spot but at the end of the day he will still have his job and there are other goal tenders available. It appears Marty Turco could be a cap friendly replacement for Niemi. Niemi may not have as many options available to him as Bowman. If the Hawks walked away and Niemi signed an offer sheet with another team for less than 80% of his arbitration award the Hawks could match. 

**The Hawks can’t seek a two year arbitration ruling because Niemi will be  eligible to be a free agent next July 1. (Stick taps to well informed reader RJF who corrected my mistake on the CBA.)

Zito knows all about the risks to his client, and because Niemi has a short resume there are many. From what I have heard the negotiations are proceeding at a snail’s pace.

My guess is Niemi signs a one year extension for less than $2.5 million and stays with the Blackhawks, but my confidence is waning. He would still get a nice raise although probably not as much as before Niklas Hjalmarsson’s offer sheet. But if the Hawks didn’t win the Cup, Niemi would probably have settled for an extension in the $1.5 million range, so it isn’t all bad. 

By re-signing with the Hawks before arbitration Niemi accomplishes a few things which  are very important. He stays with a pretty good team and goal tender coach who has helped him improve.  In 2010-2011, Niemi will have a great chance to prove he is a legit number one goal keeper over an entire season. 

If Niemi improves, and I believe he will, the money will be there for him next summer. Maybe it won’t be with the Blackhawks but Niemi will get a large contract somewhere as long as he proves to be a dependable starting goal keeper. Mr. Zito realizes the same and will most likely agree to a contract extension for his client by early next week. 

If for some reason Hawk management is not as high on Niemi as most believe there will be an arbitration hearing involving both parties next Thursday. If that is the case Bowman has options and Turco waiting in the wings.

Al’s Shots  

I feel bad for the fans of the Coyotes as there has been some recent rumblings reported over the plight to find new ownership in Phoenix. 

Unfortunately this does not come as a shock. 

Why would anyone want to buy the Coyotes after Jerry Reinsdorf walked away from a very generous, low risk opportunity? 

If the shrewd Reinsdorf passes, I wouldn’t want to be next in line to buy. 

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

In the wake of the San Jose Sharks failed attempt earlier this month to sign defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson away from the Chicago Blackhawks via offer sheet some bloggers suggested the possibility of the Sharks or another team trying to do the same with Blackhawks restricted free agent goaltender Antti Niemi.

Hockeyleaks.com was the latest to make such a suggestion back on July 16th:

There has been some speculation that the Sharks could now make a second offer sheet to the Hawks, this time for Niemi.  Sneaky move if it happens.

It certainly would be a sneaky move. So why hasn’t it happened? Because Niemi filed for salary arbitration over two weeks ago, making him ineligible to receive an offer sheet.

As an aside, the same thing goes if a team takes a player to arbitration.

One team, the New York Rangers, actually made this move with goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, not because they felt his side was being unreasonable in their salary demands, but rather as a ploy to prevent him from receiving an offer sheet target whilst the two sides were hammering out a new contract. Less than a week later, Lundqvist re-signed with the Rangers.

So remember, kids, if an NHL player has filed for or is being taken to arbitration, he’s ineligible to receive an offer sheet. Here endeth the lesson, class dismissed.

Lyle Richardson
SpectorsHockey.net
twitter.com/spectorshockey

If Taffe replaces Reasoner on the roster the net cap saving would be $600,000.

Could the re-signing of Antti Niemi be coming soon?

There were a couple of big overpayments involving the Brian Campbell and Cristobal Huet contracts.  Another factor which isn’t brought up as much would involve players which went from earning close to the league minimum and then resigned multi-year extensions for around $3 million per season. None of those players were at All-Star status when they received very large increases. Last summer’s careless qualifying offer snafu added to some overpayments as well.

Certainly the Blackhawks franchise has been a victim of its own success but not enough fiscal responsibility was in place. Many believe Stan Bowman’s appointment as general manager signaled the end for Blackhawks careless overspending.

As a long time featured sports writer from Chicago once commented….Dale Tallon paid players as if they were his own children.  Maybe the criticism was a bit harsh, maybe not.

Bowman is trying to maintain a tighter fiscal discipline. He doesn’t want a relatively unproven player’s salary to jump from near the NHL floor to well over $3 million per year. Those which are watching closely realize Bowman has already gotten rid of the most overpaid players on the team except for Campbell and Huet.

Will Bowman be forced to send Antti Niemi packing in the same way as Cam Barker, Dustin Byfuglien and Kris Versteeg?

Trading away a young Stanley Cup winning goalie would require some real cojones, plus let’s not dismiss the hefty hike in ticket prices already in place for Hawk faithful.

But Bowman didn’t sign up for an easy job and it could be a long year. Imagine the relentless criticism if the 2010-2011 season is knocked off the tracks because of poor goal keeping due to the Hawks not re-signing Niemi.

The Niemi negotiations were supposedly going along, until Doug Wilson upset the proceedings. The Hawks then made Niklas Hjalmarsson their first priority and now Niemi’s camp, led by agent Bill Zito have been left dangling.

Zito always worked well with Tallon, which meant his clients left the negotiating table happy. But Bowman won’t ever be confused for Tallon.

Unless the tune out of Zito changes quickly and Niemi signs on for less than $3 million per season the Hawks may seek an arbitration settlement. We are getting close to crunch time as Niemi’s hearing is set for July 29, only ten days away.

There are a number of different factors to consider when ascertaining a fair contract value for Niemi. For our discussion, goal tender salaries which can be used as comparables will be reviewed. Also we will take a look at some of the criteria an arbitrator will use in determining Niemi’s new contract.

My information concerning arbitrator guidelines are from an article by Jamie Fitzpatrick in About.com.

1. The player’s “overall performance” including statistics in all previous seasons.

Niemi’s playoff stats were very good, although his GAA wasn’t as low as Jaroslav Halak, Michael Leighton, Evgeni Nabokov or Tuukka Rask.

He didn’t dominate in the playoffs but he was as good as Pekka Rinne and out played Roberto Luongo, Nabokov and Leighton.

Advantage Zito

As for the regular season, Niemi was good but his sample is based on fewer games than any starting goal tender in the NHL.

Last year Niemi only started 35 games and played in a total of 39. His stats rank him around mid-pack in the league although many had more games played.

By those standards Niemi could be considered good but not great. The Hawks team defense and penalty killing unit ranked high, which also doesn’t help Niemi’s cause.

Advantage Bowman

2. Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.

Niemi wasn’t injury prone. But in the big picture he saw limited regular season action compared to other  number one goalies.

Advantage Bowman

3. The player’s length of service with the team and in the NHL.

Niemi has played in only 42 regular season NHL games and he didn’t start in all of those.

Advantage Bowman

4. The player’s “overall contribution” to the team’s success or failure.

Would the Blackhawks have won the Stanley Cup with Huet between the pipes?

Advantage Zito

5. The player’s “special qualities of leadership or public appeal.”

The young guy is likeable enough. But until he can string a few sentences together in English his popularity will be based entirely on the team’s overall success. There doesn’t appear to be any edge here for Zito.

Advantage Bowman

6. The performance and salary of any player alleged to be “comparable” to the player in the dispute.

Here is where the proceedings can get really dicey for each side.

No doubt Zito will want to draw a comparison to Halak and Jonas Hiller.

Halak didn’t go to the Blues in a sign and trade, it was the opposite. To say he had an extreme upper hand on Blues management would be an understatement.

When St. Louis acquired him they knew they would have to agree to Halak’s demands. The result was Halak signed a four year contract with a $3.75 million dollar cap hit.

In January, Hiller signed a four year contract paying him an average of $4.5 million each season. Hiller had close to the same amount of NHL games when he signed his extension as Niemi has now. That could be a big problem for Bowman. But, and it is a big but in my estimation, Hiller would have become an unrestricted free agent six months later if he wasn’t re-signed.

Bowman will undoubtedly bring up the contract value of the Kings starting keeper Jonathan Quick. His progression in the NHL and status before signing his three year contract extension could be viewed similarly to Niemi’s situation.

Quick signed a three year extension which runs through 2012-2013 for a cap hit of $1.8 million. Before agreeing to his extension Quick wasn’t about to become a UFA.

Although Carey Price was a high draft pick his last contract might be a comparable enough for Bowman to emphasize. Price had signing bonuses involved as well, as his cap hit was $2.2 million for the 2009-2010 season.

Price is unsigned for next year and Quick might be available via trade. The Kings have the well thought of Jonathan Bernier waiting in the wings. Bernier is thought to be NHL ready, although only 21 years old.

Maybe the goalie which is most similar to Niemi is Rinne, who just signed a two year extension in February. Rinne reminds me of Niemi in some ways as they are both close to the same age. Rinne’s cap hit will be $3.4 million, and his contract will run through 2011-2012.

A notable point which comes into play when using Rinne’s contract as a comparable was his pending UFA status. Niemi is only a restricted free agent otherwise he might already be with another team.

Advantage Bowman….As long as the arbitrator agrees there is a higher realized contract value for players negotiating an extension just before being eligible for free agency.

How much extra value an arbitrator will place on a pending UFA goalie is probably the most important unknown. There aren’t many goalies that were not drafted and quickly won a Stanley Cup, so this hearing is not typical. My presumption is the added leverage a pending UFA has when negotiating an extension can’t be discounted.

If Niemi had another solid season of stats under his belt an arbitrator could value him closer to Halak and Hiller. Now a conclusion might come somewhere between Quick and Prices’s contract values, an average of $2 million and Rinne’s $3.4 million cap hit.

My guess is the Hawks won’t agree to pay Niemi as much as Rinne before the arbitration hearing. If an arbitrator ends up determining Niemi’s contract value both sides will have to hold on tight.

Players which signed new contracts after earning UFA status aren’t used as comparables in NHL arbitration hearings.

If the arbitrator only uses recent contract signings which didn’t involve pending UFA’s, maybe it boils down to an average between the Quick and Halak contracts.

If that is the case the Niemi camp will be disappointed as his new deal would be for slightly less than $2.8 million.

If an arbitrator weighs the pending UFA factor heavily then Niemi’s ruling should be below $3 million per season. If an arbitrator discounts Halak’s contract, as he was already traded to a new team before agreeing to terms, the Niemi camp won’t like the outcome.

If Niemi had pending UFA status and a longer resume he could deserve a contract between Rinne’s $3.4 and Hiller’s $4.5 million.

Bowman could stick to a more stringent stance than in the past and choose to not pay Niemi in excess of $3 million dollars per season.

In my estimation Niemi’s new contract shouldn’t be strictly compared to those with longer resumes and on the verge of UFA status. That said, Niemi could be much better next year after the benefit of pressure packed playoff seasoning.

The Hawks front office could be banking an arbitrator views things my way. There are so many unknowns, but the last is the biggest question of all.

Will the mistakes of the past cost the Blackhawks a potential star goal tender of the future?

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

Without Hjalmarsson, making the playoffs would have been an uphill battle. Losing another very good defenseman would have made a big difference to the Blackhawks. Hjalmarsson couldn’t effectively be replaced by anyone inside the organization. There were not many other choices around the NHL either, Bowman realized the same and matched the Sharks offers sheet.

There could have been a strong likelihood both Hjalmarsson’s and Niemi’s agents were dragging their feet on agreeing to contract extensions. As one bright connected hockey guy told me, if you could smell an offer sheet possibility so could their agents. The Niemi camp waited until the eleventh hour to apply for arbitration, his hearing is now set for July 29. Shortly after Niemi’s arbitration became a possibility Doug Wilson made his move.

Wilson waited until after Niemi filed for arbitration. In that way the Hawks wouldn’t be able to make an easy decision on Niemi’s contract. If Niemi would have received a large offer sheet the Hawks could have focused all of their resources on re-signing Hjalmarsson. Wilson gave himself a slight chance of capturing a very good young defender.

The timing of San Jose’s bold offer sheet, although calculated, was curious. Wilson’s had to know down deep he wasn’t getting Hjalmarsson. His attempt to snatch the young Chicago defender could have been solely intended to inflict more salary cap pain. Was Wilson’s realistic mission to cause the Hawks to trade a player they would have been otherwise able to retain?

Even though his club wouldn’t directly benefit, the Sharks GM was helping to weaken one of his main rivals. Maybe Wilson’s actions will benefit another franchise more than his own.

My question to Wilson would be..…Why didn’t you wait until Niemi was signed to a contract extension before writing the offer sheet?

The word was around Niemi was Chicago’s first priority because he had already filed for arbitration. There were whispers Bowman was very close to signing Niemi before Hjalmarsson received an offer sheet. Now Bowman has time and a few options.

If the Blackhawks get very lucky they could retain both Hjalmarsson and Niemi for no more than they would have before the offer sheet. After the $14 million contract extension to Hjalmarsson the Hawks are more likely to be hard pressed to re-sign Niemi without making another trade. But at least Bowman has the chance an arbitration ruling will be in his favor not Niemi’s.

So Wilson’s timing was a bit odd and so was the Blackhawks early reply.  As soon as prospect camp was complete the Hawks GM announced Hjalmarsson would remain in Chicago.

As is often the case with salary cap situations, there are many questions without apparent answers and no way to get replies from the involved parties.

My question for Bowman would be…. Why not wait a few more days to match the offer sheet and leave San Jose uncertain of their next move?

It would have made sense to hold the Sharks up for awhile longer. Why make it easier on them?

Maybe Bowman wanted to get the speculation out of the way because he was already trying to open up more salary cap space by exploring trade opportunities. It still doesn’t make sense to rush to give the Sharks front office notice ahead of the seven day deadline.

If what I am hearing is correct the Hawks are trying to move Brian Campbell more so than anyone of the seven untouchables. (Bolland, Hossa, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Sharp and Toews)

I have reason to believe the Hawks and Panthers have discussed a deal involving Campbell.

Dale Tallon has been biding his time. His time could be now considering Hjalmarsson received a huge raise. It feels like Tallon won’t let the whole summer pass without making a deal with his former assistant.

Tallon has the cap space and possibly Campbell would agree to go to sunny Florida to work for his former boss. Campbell has a no movement clause. Supposedly Campbell’s contract requires him to list eight clubs which Bowman could negotiate a trade.

It wouldn’t be difficult to list eight teams which either didn’t have the cap space, or would have no interest in Campbell’s services. Although one has to wonder if Florida, Buffalo and Toronto aren’t high up on Campbell’s list. Maybe there are other teams he could be talked into playing for like Colorado or even the Islanders.

If Panther defenseman Bryan McCabe was shipped to Chicago in exchange for Campbell the Hawks would gain close to $1.5 million in cap space. Most important is McCabe’s hefty contract expires after the upcoming season. Tallon would make a splash and the Hawks get back an offensive minded defenseman to help them for one season.

The 35 year old McCabe may not fit into the long range plans for the Panthers.  Campbell is only 31 years old and could be an important rebuilding piece for Tallon.

If Bowman had to pick a contract to dump, Campbell’s would be first choice after Cristobal Huet’s. There is some chance Campbell could be dealt, compared to no chance for Huet. If not put into a corner Bowman would probably not look to deal Campbell.

The biggest loser in the latest salary cap drama could be Niemi, as Hjalmarsson probably received about an additional $1 million dollars because of the offer sheet. The same amount may not come off of Niemi’s deal but he might have to roll the dice and hope for a friendly arbitrator.

Niemi doesn’t have a long resume. For every justification Niemi should be awarded a contract of $3 million or more there are two reasons why he should get paid closer to $2 million.

Maybe Bowman has already made a call to Jose Theodore or Marty Turco. A back-up plan would be a good idea as Corey Crawford might need a veteran mentor. The Hawks could be hard pressed to sign Niemi without making a meaningful salary dumping trade.

Hjalmarsson’s only real leverage in contract negotiations was if another team wrote an offer sheet. I wonder if the Hawks took his re-signing too casually or if Hjalmarsson’s agent played the Chicago front office to perfection.

In hindsight it would have been wise for the Hawks to strongly press to re-sign Hjalmarsson as soon as the Sharks inked free agent goal keeper Antero Niittymaki. Up until then the Sharks were the most logical Western Conference destination for Niemi if he was to leave Chicago by way of an offer sheet.

In the past it seemed odd while during offer sheet haggling the teams chatted. In this day and age that type of behavior could be cause for a claim of collusion. In other instances the end result would be the acquiring team would get the player via trade instead of by an offer sheet.

It would seem the sought after player wouldn’t have the same opportunity to sign as large of a contract extension if acquired by trade. At the very least there would be lawyers eagerly awaiting the chance to prove their client wasn’t allowed a fair shot at the best possible contract. It would seem franchises weren’t really competing with each other.

In the case of the Hjalmarsson’s offer sheet, my whispers indicate the Hawks front office had no prior contact beforehand with the Sharks. Maybe this dilemma was more painful because the Chicago brain trust didn’t see it coming. Then again Bowman had to realize the possibility, although he might have thought there would have been some forewarning. In this offer sheet drama a trade to settle matters wasn’t likely.

Did the Hawks young GM get caught off guard?

No matter what, Wilson has hurt the Hawks and there probably is no chance of retribution coming for a long time.

Wilson chose to come in with a four year offer for Hjalmarsson. He could have written the offer sheet for more money per year but with a shorter term. More likely the Hawks would have passed and taken the draft picks if that were the case. But cap space is also precious for the Sharks.

Now the challenge will be to retain both Hjalmarsson and Niemi without being forced to trade another important team member.

If the Hawks go to arbitration and Niemi is awarded a contract in excess of $3 million they probably won’t be able to keep both players without another salary dump. If they did choose to re-sign Niemi someone off the untouchable list would have to go. Probably not Bowman’s first option but these are desperate times.

Unless a trade was manufactured and agreed to by Brian Campbell the most likely to be dealt could be Patrick Sharp. The trade of Sharp would be a last resort for Bowman.  Campbell’s departure makes more sense and he wasn’t one of the seven untouchables…. (Bolland, Hossa, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Sharp and Toews)

The other salary cap saving options would boil down to players who are earning only about $1 dollars. Those cap casualty choices are very difficult to make also.

Troy Brouwer, Tomas Kopecky and Marty Reasoner are veterans which could be replaced by minimum salary players. In some ways those players are the last Bowman would want to trade because their contracts are fairly valued. To save around $1 million in cap space two of the three would have to depart.

It still is uncertain what Wilson gained besides making the Hawks squirm and making a few enemies.

If Wilson’s real mission was to acquire Niemi he could have written an offer sheet on him. The Niemi camp gave everyone all the time they could before signing up for arbitration.

The offer sheet for Hjalmarsson wasn’t a shocker but the timing of Wilson and in some ways Bowman was curious. Maybe the end game for everyone involved will surface soon enough.

It could be the Chicago heat and humidity has blurred my thinking.

But if the Hawks do end up making a significant trade with Tallon’s Panthers, maybe the answers were in Florida all along.

Al’ Shots

The agent speak coming from the Niemi camp reminds a little of the Marty Havlat negotiations….we all remember how that turned out.

There is no way the Hawks will sign Niemi to a long term mega contract…front loading isn’t the issue. Even if they were to agree on a five year $15 million dollar deal the cap hit is going to be $3 million no matter how much Niemi receives early on.

If the Hawks wanted to pay Niemi $3 million they could most likely sign him for two or three years and be done with it….Niemi’s haggling is is about not overpaying and over committing to a player who hasn’t played in 50 NHL games yet.

I think Niemi will continue to improve but the Hawks aren’t going to bend over backwards to keep him.

Reported contract signings not confirmed on the Hawks website….??

Igor Makarov has missed the last few prospects camps and seemed to be off the Blackhawks radar. But surprise, surprise the former 33rd overall pick in the 2006 entry draft supposedly has signed a $552,500 two year contract.

Makarov has signed a reasonable contract which will enable him to play with the big club this season. It will be interesting to watch Makarov in training camp. When I last saw him he looked to have potential. I figured he didn’t want to leave Russia but now he could help the Hawks this season. The young right winger is only 22 years old.

As expected Jack Skille signed a deal for about half of his bonus heavy entry level contract, reports indicate. Skille could finally get a chance to stick in Chicago as he too is reasonably priced.

I am still not sure where Skille will fit in, but if not Tallon was always one of his biggest fans.

The Hawks will have some young hungry players competing for jobs.

It is not a coincidence Skille signed a cap friendly, $600,000 one year contract only one day after Makarov agreed to come back to the States.

blackhawkswin@comacst.net

As was outlined a few weeks ago this possibility made as much sense as any offer sheet could.  

The Sharks needed to replace a top defender and they don’t mind shipping off draft selections.  Hjalmarsson is only 23 years old and does everything at a high level except pass the puck. But he has time to improve that skill and odds are he will be even better with a couple of years of seasoning. 

Is Hammer currently worth $3.5 million per season?….It depends on where you sit. Pragmatically he isn’t a top pairing defender on the Hawks but he might be on the Sharks.  

Stan Bowman has a decision to make and it won’t be easy. Hjalmarsson is someone the Hawks can’t replace internally. Bowman would have to make a trade or seek out an available free agent for the right price. 

My view was the Hawks could afford to pay Antti Niemi and Hjalmarsson about $ 5.5 million combined without making more salary dumping trades. If Chicago matches the offer sheet they would have about $2 million to pay Niemi and that might not be enough. Once again, trying to figure out the exact available cap space is almost impossible. 

The Hawks may have been surprised by Wilson’s aggressiveness. My whispers recently indicated Niemi was on course to squeeze slightly more the $3 million per season out of the Hawks. Maybe becasue Wilson waited a weeks or so,  Bowman didn’t expect an offer sheet.

So now what? 

My thinking is the Hawks will choose Hjalmarsson over Niemi if need be. 

That is my take without any outside rumblings involved. Even though young Nik isn’t worth $3.5 million today he probably will deserve as much three or four years from now. Very good defenders carry a premium these days. It doesn’t take much for a blueliner to earn at least $2.5 million. 

The most disappointed beside Blackhawk management might be Bill Zito, Niemi’s agent. Now Bowman may take a chance and let an arbitrator decide Niemi’s salary on a two year contract. Supposedly Bowman and Zito weren’t very far apart on an extension before Wilson crashed the party. 

If an arbitrator gives Niemi a $750,000 bump compared to Craig Anderson and Jonathan Quick his new salary would be about $2.6 million. Included  would be a nice raise for winning the Cup. But maybe his new deal comes in below as it all depends on the arbitrator. 

It appears likely Niemi will want more than $2.5 million per season from the Hawks. 

Bowman could wait on Niemi and make a minor deal or two for additional cap space. Or he may go to arbitration and play his hand after the ruling. The Hawks could choose to trade Niemi if his newly awarded contract was too large. 

Maybe there is a way for the Hawks to keep Hjalmarsson and Niemi without having to trade anyone off of their untouchable list. Those players are Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Dave Bolland, Marian Hossa, Pat Kane, Patrick Sharp and Jonathan Toews. 

Hawk fans will find out what Bowman plans on doing within seven days. The Hawks have a week to match the offer and if Niemi seals a deal sooner there could be another trade to follow.

Bowman also has to allow for cap space for Seabrook as his contract is over after next season. The Hawks second best defender will command close to $5 million per season. 

My thinking is Niemi waits for an arbitration ruling unless Bowman decides to take the first and third round draft picks from the Sharks.   

If the Hjalmarsson offer sheet is matched the Hawks may roll the dice on an arbitration ruling on Niemi. If Bowman gets a favorable decision he still might be able to hang onto his most important team members. 

The Hawks defense already has to manage without Brent Sopel. Can Chicago get by without Hjalmarsson too? 

As written in the past, offer sheets have been a figment of the new CBA but if ever one were to make sense this was it. 

The Sharks could acquire a very good young defenseman and also weaken their toughest Western Conference opponent.

blackhawkswin@comcast.net

From what I have heard Stan Bowman, and Niemi’s agent Bill Zito haven’t been haggling for very long. Bowman’s was preoccupied until recently with the draft and trimming payroll. Actually whispers were the two didn’t speak about Niemi’s contract before July 1.

Zito always seemed to get a favorable deal for his clients when negotiating with the Hawks in the past.  One of Zito’s clients is Tuomo Ruutu who ended up with a nice multi- year contract from Chicago management a few years ago. But the Dale Tallon days are over and now we will see how Bowman and Zito play together. 

The tricky part of the Niemi’s contract will be if Bowman can sign him to a multi-year deal. One way or the other Niemi would be eligible to become a UFA after this year. The Hawks would rather sign him for more than one season. Otherwise they may have to go through a similar situation next summer unless Niemi is not in their future plans. It appears even if Niemi goes through the arbitration process the Hawks will have cap space to sign him.

***After looking more closely at the CBA the Hawks appear to have an upper hand, as Niemi has a short resume. The club can elect to go for a ruling on a two year contract. That would be another reason for Niemi to sign a multi-year deal and not go through the arbitration process. If the Blackhawks roll the dice on a two year arbitration ruling then Niemi wouldn’t become a  UFA  after next  sesason. The drawback for the Hawks is if Niemi was awarded a huge contract, but they could then walk away and he would become a UFA. ***

Given a choice the Hawk would like to get both Niemi and Niklas Hjalmarsson signed soon but there isn’t a big rush. Niemi has more leverage than Hammer who is not eligible for arbitration. There appears to be little chance of Hjalmarsson receiving an offer sheet. 

As with Niemi it would be better for the Hawks to lock the young defender up for a few years. At this point Hjalmarsson’s new deal may depend on how much available cap space is left after Niemi comes to terms. 

From a business standpoint it would have been wise for the Hawks to sign both young RFA’s to a contract extension during the winter. After Pat Kane, Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews were given extensions there was no tagging space availble for the following year. So Bowman had little choice but to wait until the season was over. Unfortunately for the Blackhawks both contract values have increased with the passing of time. 

Recently I’ve gotten some inquiries regarding contract extension talks involving Niemi which were supposedly happening during later rounds of the playoffs.  As far as I know those rumors are false. 

NHL teams don’t negotiate with players on contract extensions during the playoffs. It would been almost impossible for contract talks to have taken place with Niemi’s agent during the Stanley Cup finals. No matter what was written on the internet here, or on euro hockey sites, it would have defied logic and protocol for contact talks to have happened during the post season. 

The Hawks may not have had a plan in place accounting for a Conn Smythe bonus for Toews. But a good portion of the $4 million or so in performance bonuses was probably anticipated because some players figured to hit their marks. Concerning contract extensions for Niemi or Hjalmarsson it didn’t matter, the tagging space wasn’t available anyway.

If it was possible the time to re-sign both players was in February. Certainly by then Chicago management would have known Hjalmarsson was the real deal. But the contract extensions for the ‘big three’ seem to have limited the ability for management to re-sign anyone else sooner. 

Recently there also has been some confusion concerning a player from the KHL who supposedly had agreed to contract terms with the Blackhawks.  

As far as I know Niklas Perrson, who ultimately signed on with Tampa Bay, was never under contract or close to signing with Chicago. 

Maybe the Hawks had an interest in signing the 31 year old forward who has never played in the NHL??? 

But certainly there would have been no reason to sit on the signing and not announce it publicly if it did happen. Hawk management knew for awhile exactly how much cap space was available to sign additional players. If a contract signing is not published on the Hawks website, TSN or NHL.com, it is not a done deal. 

I’m hearing good reports about defenseman John Scott. 

Scott is supposedly a bright player who might be able to contribute some on offense also.  It appears Bowman made a good signing in the tough Scott, who will especially help the Hawks cause when they play certain clubs. This season the Hawks can’t afford to leave points on the table against a division rival like St. Louis. 

The Hawks could have a few new players in their line-up which can fight if needed. Bryan Bickell and Jake Dowell can take care of themselves and some teammates. The Hawks will have a different look next year and they may play with more of an edge. 

Al’s Shots 

There was some sad news on Monday with the passing of Bob Probert who just turned 45 years old.  

Probert was one of the toughest players ever and was the best fighter in the last 30 years. In his prime Probert could do more than fight as he had some skill too. 

Probert compiled 384 points in 935 NHL games, including 3300 penalty minutes. 

I have a Bob Probert story to share. 

There was someone from my old neighborhood that ‘worked’ for the Hawks for over 20 years. His name was John Stanko, and when I say worked for the Hawks, he never actually was paid by the team as far as I know. 

John was like a locker room attendant, he spent much of his time at his second job washing Hawks practice jerseys, towels and whatever else. The players loved John and he was a character. The guys would chip in at the end of the season and tip John for all of his work. 

One day when Probert was with the Hawks, John called a  friend of mine while he was doing the wash. He told my buddy to hang on because someone wanted to speak to him.

Stanko puts the phone down and yells over…Hey Probie someone wants to talk to you. 

Probert finishes up in the weight room and grabs the phone. Big Bob then spends the next 10 minutes holding a conversation with someone he didn’t know. 

Probert realized it was a feel good for Stanko to show he had some clout with a Hawk player. Probert didn’t hesitate to do something nice for someone many athletes from other sports would have thought of as just a towel guy. 

Hockey players in general are that way and Probert was certainly a good, genuine person.  He was very well liked and will be missed. 

In fact so was Stanko who passed away a few years ago. I would like to think both are together now sharing a few laughs. 

My sincere condolences go out to the Probert family and his many friends. 

I have not heard any rumblings but it wouldn’t surprsie me if the Hawks made a pitch for Mike Modano.

It may come down to money. Modano is aware to play in the NHL he will have to take a big pay cut.

Another solid veteran influence is always a good thing for a young team.

I think signing Modano wouldn’t waste a roster spot. He could help out on the penalty kill and would probbaly love to play in Chicago.

blackhawkswin@ comcast.net