Catching the Stanley Cup Cold
stevenhindle | Jun 10, 2010 | Comments 4
It’s a Dangerous Fever
First things first.
Congratulations to the Chicago Blackhawks and their 1st Stanley Cup championship since 1961. There is nothing sweeter than for a franchise to claw their way back to the promised land after such an excruciating drought.
The fact that the Stanley Cup curse was quietly approaching the half-century mark next season spoke volumes of how desperate the Hawks were to hoist a fresh banner to the rafters.
But with the Hawks Cup victory comes a great burden.
You see, when building a winner in the post-lockout NHL, there are always a few catches. Namely, the cost of building a winner.
The true championship formula is a balance of spending almost all the way to cap ceiling while taking advantage of talented young players playing at pre-UFA rates. This has been proven in recent years as the Hurricanes, Ducks, Red Wings and Penguins have all earned Cups yet have seen their championship teams become compromised due to cap constraints.
Although the Red Wings and Penguins held onto a two year stretch where it seemed that either club could have turned into a dynasty team, both succumbed to the Stanley Cup cold, forced into parting ways with key members while struggling through the crippling affects of fatigue from 2 extended seasons.
Of course fatigue may be the most tell-tale sign of how difficult it is for one single team to dominate the league anymore as the Wings and Pens both proved that 2 straight trips to the Cup Finals eventually catch up to you, but in the end, it is the cost of talent that eventually forces a team out of its window for success.
In the beginning of the salary cap era, the Carolina Hurricanes took advantage of two young superstars dominance and rode Cam Ward and Eric Staal to their first Cup championship in team history, but their long-term success was not to be as the Cup victory ultimately proved too costly. Eventually, the ‘Canes were forced to part with talents such as Erik Cole and became hampered by the cost of retaining their young and talented players.
The same story repeated itself the following year as the Anaheim Ducks fought their way to their first Cup victory on the strengths of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Along with a superb mix of uber-talented veterans in Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, Teemu Selanne and JS Giguere, the Ducks out-classed everyone on their way to the Cup. That victory endowed Brian Burke with plenty of success and praise as everyone touted the new “Brian Burke way to build a team.” Yet again though, the magic formula for success cost the Ducks as they were forced to part ways with Dustin Penner and Joffrey Lupul among others. That eventual cost of winning also pushed the Ducks out of their window of opportunity and they have been rebuilding ever since.
Next came the Red Wings and their 4th Stanley Cup victory since 1996-97.
At the time, the Wings were the closest thing to a dynasty team that the NHL had seen since the 1980’s, yet even the well-built Wings couldn’t withstand the forces of the cap era. And, although they may be strongest perennial contenders thanks to the strength of their management and development system, they too have been victims of the cap/Cup crunch.
The long-term deals that Detroit provided its stars may serve as the best example of what a “home-town discount” truly is, especially Johan Franzen’s contract, but even those ‘discounts’ were not enough to leave the Wings lee-way in maintaining their hopes for a Cup. Their losses have been rather insignificant in comparison to other Cup winners in recent seasons, but the cap constraint under which Detroit placed themselves eventually led to the departure of Jiri Hudler and the forced trade of Flyers’ rookie playoff sensation, Ville Leino. Although Hudler will return next season, the loss of Leino is one that will clearly sting.
Although the Red Wings do happen to be a relatively rare exception as, out of the last 5 teams to win the Cup, Detroit is the only one to have made the playoffs every year since the lockout, they still manage to demonstrate that the Stanley Cup cold still has an affect on its winners.
The Penguins Stanley Cup victory was the first glimpse of a new breed of team under the new CBA regime.
Pittsburgh’s Cup came after a few years of rebuilding. A formula that now trumps all other methods of winning since the lockout.
By balancing the team with its 3 great centers, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal, as well as young netminder Marc-Andre Fleury, the Pens took advantage of their youthful players while balancing the team by being able to maximize their cap space either on UFA’s or through trades.
This new balance of the Cup formula, which saw the Penguins succeed while balancing paying their young stars top dollars(for the most part) and their UFA’s at fair rates.
Yet, despite having taken the best advantage of the Cup formula to date, the inevitable X-factor of fatigue wound up catching the Penguins, just as it did to the Red Wings, and so Pittsburgh became the next casualty of the Stanley Cup cold.
The one difference that the Penguins bring to the formula is that their young and signed talent still have many years ahead of them. Although the same can be said for most of the other Cup winners in recent years, for the most part, the truth is that even with a balanced core like that on the Penguins, there still might not be room enough for all of their important pieces in the future. This timely dilemma of contract values versus the rise and fall of the salary cap truly hand-cuffs GM’s who have seen their teams succeed and win the Cup only to be stifled by the inability to reward all of their talent appropriately.
Since this is an open market system, where players can eventually earn the right to pick and choose where they want to go, not one single Cup winner since the lock-out has been able to withstand the perils of victory.
It can be construed as the irony of success, but with the Chicago Blackhawks having laid claim to Lord Stanley’s Cup only just last evening, the questions have already begun.
Will the Hawks catch the same Stanley Cup cold that has weakened all recent champions and inhibited them from repeating?
Or is there more magic to be found in the treasure chest of talent that is the Blackhawks farm system?
The truth is that, as Lyle Richardson has pointed out(aka “Spector”), even if the salary cap does go up to $58.8 million for the 2010-11 season, the Chicago Blackhawks stand no chance of retaining all of the talented players that combined for the team’s first Stanley Cup in 49 years.
The reality is that they too will fall prey to the cost of being the owners of successful players. Talent dictates a players value, but success is what makes a player enticing.
Now that the young Hawks can (eventually) wear their Cup rings with pride, you have to wonder how many of them will still be able to call the Windy city home for next season?
Although I am no odds-maker, I wouldn’t hesitate to bet against the reigning Cup champions repeating next Spring. Despite the strength of this young Blackhawks team, built in a similar fashion to last season’s Cup champion Penguins, it stands to reason that with the cash-calls that their RFA’s and UFA’s will demand, plus the likely on-set of the X-factor, fatigue, these Hawks just won’t be the same team.
Another level of irony lies in the fact that the Hawks franchise won’t have long to bask in the glory of their victory. The truth is that with the Draft only a couple weeks away, and the opening of Unrestricted Free Agency shortly there-after, Chicago’s management will barely have time to catch their breathe before deciding who to keep and who they must part ways with.
It will be an excruciating process and something that will likely shock fans in Chicago, but the same can be said for the Flyers as the reigning runner-ups will also have cap issues to deal with and roster spots to address.
It is becoming painfully clear that it’s getting harder and harder to build and maintain a winner in today’s NHL, yet despite the costs and possible negatives, one thing remains infinitely clear, no one team will ever stop trying and whenever a franchise sees the opportunity to win it all, they will do everything in their power-damned of the consequences- to bring home Lord Stanley’s Cup.
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Filed Under: Anaheim Ducks • Carolina Hurricanes • Chicago Blackhawks • Detroit Red Wings • Eastern Conference • Featured • NHL • NHL Teams • Philadelphia Flyers • Pittsburgh Penguins • Western Conference
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The Hawks are tight against the cap already and they have to sign key RFAs such as Hjalmarsson and Niemi.
Players like Sopel and Versteeg are most likely gone.
Steven, you bring up some intriguing points, but your basic premise would be refuted by fans of the Penguins and the Wings, both of whom returned to the Finals the following year.
Expecting them to do a ‘three-peat’ goes against the logic of the cycle of professional sports, which has dictated that there are no ‘dynasties’ any more.
The competitive edge is narrower than ever, which makes for highly entertaining and often surprising hockey, such as we saw this past playoff season.
So, what evidence is there of this so-called “Stanley Cup Cold”?
The salary cap is a reality all 30 GMs deal with. Some clubs have had more success than others. The Bruins, Flyers, Caps, Hawks, all rebuilt their teams within a short window.
They rapidly became competitive after a period of decline.
The GMs of these teams, Mssrs Chiarelli, Holmgren, McPhee and Bowman, are all brilliant men who have shown they can adjust to the challenges of managing their budgets.
The Colorado Avalanche, who most writers had written off before the season started, surged back to relevance.
On the other side of the ledger, we see the Flames, Oilers and Senators are mediocre shadows of their once powerful selves.
The Rangers appear to be stuck in neutral.
All of the above to underline the fact that the picture is far more complex than you seem to suggest.
The figure you mention of $58 million as the cap ceiling conflicts with the information cited on the sources frequently used as the benchamrks, NHLNumbers.com and CapGeek.com, which demonstrate that the actual salary cap, bonuses included, was somewhere between 60 and 62 million last season.
If the cap goes up by some two to two and half million dollars next year, that would make the cap effectively around 64 million dollars.
Do you have the definitive number? And what is the authoritative source?
The information available to the media is limited, as is–if one can take the reporting done on the subject as proof–the media’s understanding of the complexities of managing an NHL franchise.
Forbes Magazine’s comprehensive look at “The Business of Hockey” (the title of their annual series of team value reviews) concedes, at least, that their numbers are estimates.
While veteran writers like Stan Fischler and Bruce Dowbiggin have probed, in their books, the labyrinth of the National Hockey League, even they don’t have access to the conversations in the ‘back rooms’ (more likely the yachts and private jets) of the magnates who run the NHL.
Nevertheless, the so-called pundits are already forecasting what changes will come before next season.
Not one them knows what the truth is, as only the Board of Governors and the executives of the NHL teams actually know what the salary cap and attendant factors will be.
The rest is speculation and opinion.
In terms of Chicago’s future, both Rocky Wirtz and Stan Bowman have gone on record as saying they have been planning for the inevitable changes that would come after this year.
With a Stanley Cup in hand, their work, and the work of their team, has been validated.
By the way, leading oddsmakers Bodog already have the Blackhawks as favorites to repeat.
That said, we’ve seen predictions for what they are this year: flights of fancy.
And that’s part of the fun of sport.
Hey Dave,
Definitely appreciate the well-thought out comment.
As for the Pens and Wings disputing my ‘cold’ theory, I did make mention that they may very well be the exceptions to the rule as they seem to have found a better balance within their team structures.
That said, only the Wings have been able to withstand the “drop to the bottom” in order to rebuild. Their incredible drafting and the loyalty of their players have given them the most consistent team in terms of competitiveness.
The Canes, Ducks, Pens and Hawks have all benefitted from spells at the bottom of the league that have allowed them the opportunity to build back up. But it’s a long way up and it takes a toll on a team, as we are all very well aware.
My point in relating winning the Cup to catching a cold lies more in the after-effects of a Cup victory.
The reality is that big money is contagious once players have found success and a Cup ring immediately increases most players worth. Once that happens, the ‘cap crunch’ catches teams off-guard.
The Penguins and Red Wings used different formulas for success, building up “cores” of talented players rather than focusing their system around one or two players.
The Blackhawks have followed the Penguins in that mold, building up a team of young stars and a core that should provide the Hawks with the strength to remain competitive for years to come, but they too have already fallen prey to the lure of earning a Cup, spending to the cap ceiling and higher this season.
The key in withstanding the “Stanley Cup Cold” is really all about the cost of retaining players, post Cup victory, while avoiding the X-factor of fatigue.
So, as for the direct correlations and specifics to it all, I’m sure it would require alot more research to fully prove my theory, but the outline of this pattern is pretty evident and I feel that winning the Cup is as difficult as ever, if not harder.
Building a winner that can hang at the top of the league for more than a brief shining moment is hard to do these days and I believe that, as this formula has evolved since the ‘Canes and Ducks won the 1st two Cups, it is doing so once again.
Realistically, I’m more interested in finding out if the Hawks can retain their Cup winning team and be capable of making another run next year. I believe they have the core players to do it, but I’m very interested to see if they can succeed where the Red Wings and Penguins failed in actually repeating.
A little early to ask that quesiton, I know, but the truth is that this Cup win may have created even greater pressure in Chicago.
The Draft and Free Agency will be very telling of how the Hawks will be able to cope the Cup hangover and whether or not they will be able to keep key players such as Byfuglien, Sharp and Versteeg.
As for the salary cap numbers, the word I am hearing is that it will indeed go up. Revenues have steadily risen since the Olympics and the league is looking at bigger television deals in the near future, something that could help buoy the salary cap system for a long while.
As for the cap, the $58.8 number, which I quoted in the article, came from Lyle Richardson. I have not heard any direct numbers yet, but was able to find out early enough last year about the cap and have been working to do the same this summer.
The key in determining the final cap number will be in finding out how the NHLPA will handle the 5% inflator they enacted last season to keep the cap level at $56.8. By using the inflator last season, players were forced into another escrow situation. Depending on whether or not revenues have handled that situation will likely play a role in determining next seasons cap total. From all accounts, it seems that revenues will be covering the inflator, and more. And that’s why it is likely that we will see the cap rise.
Anyways, it’s still too early to predict anything, but we will find out soon enough.
And, as for the Cup Cold…we’ll just have to wait until next season to see if the Hawks will catch it. I never said it was a guarantee, just that it seems to be a common occurrence to Cup winners in the post-lockout NHL.