Will it be #1 or #2???

In a few short minutes from now the Oilers will find out if they win the draft lottery and get to pick first overall. If they’re unsuccessful they will have to wait until 2^nd to make their first selection. If the scouts are to be believed the 2010 draft will see Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin drafted in the first two spots. So what the Oilers are hoping for tonight is the right to choose between the two, nothing more.

There is a 48.2% chance that the Oilers pick first. It’s basically a coin toss. It seems like a lot to put on a coin toss – the chance to secure a cornerstone of a rebuilding team – but that is the system we have. And to be fair the lottery is a lot more exciting than reversing the standings. If the Oilers don’t win I reserve the right to change my mind on the lottery though.

Regardless of whether the Oilers pick first or second this will be the highest (assuming they don’t trade the pick, a move that would likely lead to rioting in Edmonton) that the club has ever selected. In the mid 90s the Oilers selected in the top 10 for four years in a row, and twice in 1994, but never selected higher than 4^th overall.

Unfortunately for those Oiler teams the players selected with those high picks didn’t always pan out. In 1993 the Oilers took Arnott with the 7^th pick and added Smyth the next year with the 6^th pick, both solid selections for sure. But they also took Jason Bonsignore (4^th in 1994), Steve Kelly (6^th in 1995), and Boyd Devereaux (6^th in 1996) with some of those top end picks, not exactly household names.

But the Oilers past draft failures, and there are many more beyond these three example, are in the past. More recently the result for the Oilers on draft day has been far better. Hemsky, Gagner, Cogliano, and Eberle are four of the Oilers better first round picks of the last decade. It is this recent success that gives me faith that if the Oilers win the lottery that will pick the better of Hall and Seguin.

Not that either Taylor or Tyler is likely to be a flop. In fact both look like they’re going to have long and very successful NHL careers. But then again don’t all 1^st overall selections have that same future outlook?

It’s because of that uncertainty that there are more than a few people in Edmonton who’d like to see the team pick 2^nd just so that they can’t really be wrong. I’m not of those people. As far as I’m concerned you always want to steer your own ship and you don’t get to do that when you pick at number 2.

It’s nothing more than a coin toss but I’m excited all the same. The future of my favourite team might just hang in the balance.