The Pat Quinn factor and the Oilers playoff chances

This past weekend I made the trip from Oil Country to the State of Hockey for my friend wedding. As it always does, at some point during the weekend the topic of hockey came up and I was asked “Have the Oilers done enough to make the playoffs this year?”

My gut reaction to this question is no. Last year they missed the playoffs by six points and the team this season is essentially the same. Brodziak was sent to Minnesota, Comrie was brought in on a one year deal, Roloson was replaced by Khabibulin, and MacTavish was fired in favour of Quinn and Renney. I can’t see how the subtraction of Brodziak will lead to a bigger number in the win column at the end of the year and while Comrie is an improvement he doesn’t address some of the teams biggest weaknesses. In goal Khabibulin is a minor improvement if he plays a full season, but that is a big if. So if this team is going to play meaningful games in April it is all going to come down to coaching.

I’m not a big believer that a coaching change can significantly change a teams fortunes – short term maybe, but not over a full season. That is my gut reaction but what do the numbers say? Luckily for me Quinn isn’t new to the coaching game, having held a head coaching position four times before, so there are some stats to look at. The table below compares the record of the coach who preceded Quinn to Quinn’s record the year he took over. Quinn’s coaching record for the Flyers and Canucks includes both the portion of the year he took over (in both cases from Bob McCammon oddly enough) and the following year as well.

I’ll admit it, these numbers surprised me. I know the basics of Quinn’s stats; fifth all-time in wins and a two time Jack Adams trophy winner. But I didn’t really think that he managed to transform the franchises he worked for in quite this way. Does Quinn deserve all of the credit for the turn around? Probably not since I would assume that the was also some personnel changes as well that may have made the team better but at the very least he does deserve some credit.

As far as I’m concerned the Oilers underachieved last season; they could have, and should have, been better. Maybe another year for the younger players and a new man on the bench is all that they’ll need to take the next step. I know that if the Oilers could manage to get even half of that average point swing they’ll be good to go for the playoff and should be in a spot to challenge for the division title. I’m not ready to say that a coach can make all the difference in the world but with a good start to the season I might be willing to change my mind.