A Fresh Start: Glancing At the Predators

It’s been nearly two years since I’ve blogged about hockey in general, and the Nashville Predators specifically.  Before I get too far, I have to thank Jay for giving me my first opportunity back in 2007 with PredNation.com (now defunct) and to B.D. for giving me my second opportunity here at HockeyIndependent.com.  My start was delayed further last night by a lightening strike that fried my cable modem, router, a TV, and a DirecTV/TIVO box.  That’s life.  On to the fun…

Let’s dip our toe back into the blogosphere by taking a quick glance at the Predators after their 5-4 road loss to the Atlanta Thrashers tonight.

Coming into training camp, Nashville had two really pressing issues: increasing scoring and bettering their well-below-average powerplay.   A third issue presented itself with the decision to not re-sign Greg de Vries and Greg Zanon resulting in only three defensemen having played meaningful minutes at the NHL level in Weber, Suter and Hamhuis.

Let’s examine management’s attempts at addressing those issues and try to gauge their success to this point.

Goal 1: Increase Scoring

Given the financial situation both now and for the upcoming offseason (Hamhuis, Rinne, potentially falling cap), this is a pretty tough task.  That said, we’ve seen several plans put in motion by Barry Trotz and David Poile.

• Re-signing Steve Sullivan was the first step.  Sullivan appeared to successfully return from his back injuries last season to provide a direct offensive boost and helping Dumont and Arnott to rebound from a slow start.  Given Sully’s age and injury history, the signing certainly has a fair amount of risk.  That said, I believe this to be one of the best moves made given that, if healthy, Sullivan appears to have essentially returned to form and he has an excellent chemistry with Arnott and Dumont.
• Another apparent course of action was to increase depth scoring from the third line.  Joel Ward was a pleasant suprise last season and was re-signed.  Last season, however, he spent a lot of time on the top two lines due to our depth issues.  This season the goal is to play Ward on the third line with some combination of Ryan Jones, Patric Hornqvist, Colin Wilson and Cal O’Reilly.  All of those players represent a fairly significant increase in offensive skill level to those players iced on the third line last season.  All but rookie Colin Wilson saw some time on the top two lines last season with at least some degree of success.  All of them should be better this season and the preseason certainly seems to bear that out with the exception of O’Reilly and a just returning from injury Ward.  Ryan Jones (+3) has 1G and 1A in 3GP.  Patric Hornqvist (+4) has 4A in 3GP.  Colin Wilson (+3) has looked good as well.  He has 1G and 2A in 1GP, and has been really good in camp until his current groin injury sidelined him.
• Another goal was to get more from the second line.  Last season saw a significant decline in production from both David Legwand and Martin Erat.  In fairness, production from all forwards was down.  Sullivan’s return helped boost Dumont and Arnott’s statistics, but there no boost came from Legwand and Erat.  Both have shown that they can produce when they have another skilled player on their wing.  Both have also shown tremendous chemistry together.  This season has seen management focus on pairing Legwand and Erat with a player that displayed good goal scoring skills.  Plan A has been to play Mike Santorelli on their wing.  Santorelli led the Milwaukee Admirals last season in goals (27) and points (70).  Plan B was to bring in a free agent to fill that role.  Plan B almost came to fruition in the form of Phil Kessel (an attempt in which I applaud Poile’s efforts).  That said, Santorelli has really shown some good chemistry with Legwand and Erat in both training camp and preseason games.  All three have really produced.  Legwand (E) has 1G and 4A in 2GP.  Erat (E) has 2G and 2A in 2GP.  Santorelli (+2) has 1G in 3GP.

Goal 2: Assess the Blueline

• Can Weber, Suter, and Hamhuis continue to produce and be that steady presence on the blueline?  At this point in time, there’s no doubt in my mind.  Weber has been given a permanent A this season and his leadership and intensity on the ice reallyshows.  In the preseason, he’s (+4) still pouring on the shots (19) and has 2G  in 3GP.  Suter (+4) has 2A in 3GP.  Hamhuis (+2) has 1G and 1A in 3GP.  I don’t see any real problems here.
• Is Kevin Klein ready for top four minutes?  From the little I’ve seen in training camp, he really is having a slow start.  My opinion is that the signing of Francis Bouillon indicates that the coaching staff isn’t ready to turn over top-4 minutes to Klein.  If Bouillon is physically able to play, that will push Klein into a more manageable role and limit the team’s exposure to mistakes due to inexperience.
• Are the kids ready to play?  Alexander Sulzer, Cody Franson, Jonathan Blum and Teemu Laakso are all vying for roster.  At the beginning of camp, the team seem prepared to go with two of those four- of which Sulzer was almost guaranteed a spot due to his one-way contract.  Since then, they all have been fairly uneven.  Laakso has probably been the best of the four to this point, but will the Predators carry seven defensemen?

Goal 3: Put the Power into Powerplay

Seemingly the ever-present need, it continues to haunt this team.  Right now, the Predators are 3 of 20 (15%) with the man advantage.  Given the roster flux now, however, it’s hard to guage  anything from that yet.

• In theory, Sullivan’s re-signing was a great first step.  He’s extremely dangerous with the man advantage.
• If Colin Wilson can stay at the NHL level, that gives the team another big body to play in the slot.
• It bodes well for the powerplay if Legwand, Erat, and Santorelli can continue to show the production they are showing in camp and preseason.
• Weber and Suter appear to have picked up where they left off.

Right now, there are certainly reasons to be optimistic for the upcoming season.  Scoring is up, the second line is producing at a much greater rate, the third line is chipping in, and the stalwarts on the blueline appear to be ready for another great season.  It will be interesting to see how the efforts of Trotz and Poile translate to the regular season.

Glad to be back and looking forward to the season.