Don’t Judge Garth Snow Based On Your Hindsight Reasoning: The Josh Bailey Edition
ChrisTriants | Aug 27, 2012 | Comments 9
What’s going on, Islanders fans? I hope all of you had a great weekend. To go back to where we left off, there is still absolutely nothing happening. The NHL is basically doing its lockout thing. Of course, all of it is at the expense of us fans, but what do they care, right?
Anyways, I was doing some thinking about the Islanders. I’ve thought about where they stand, and what the Islanders have in store for us fans. Obviously, the team has been rebuilding through the past few seasons. The Islanders, who have not finished placed well in the standings in recent years, have accumulated plenty of draft picks over this time frame. Draft picks often lead to second-guessing, which often leads to over-analysis of the General Manager who drafted the player, the organization that drafted the player, and the player himself. Let me put emphasis on General Manager.
Garth Snow is often villainized by Islanders fans based on moves he has made, and the moves that all of us “general managers” say he should have made.
For the sake of examples, the Islanders selected Josh Bailey in 2008, which was arguably the Islanders moat important draft class in recent years. As we remember, Islanders fans were very critical of Garth Snow when the Islanders traded back several times in order to pick Josh Bailey 9th-overall.
I also know that a lot of Islanders fans have been critical of this draft choice because of what the Islanders “could have had.” Players like Tyler Myers and Cody Hodgson were passed on in order to draft Josh Bailey. This is one of the reasons that most have labeled Garth Snow a “joke,” and honestly, it doesn’t make sense.
Well, I don’t know how I stumbled upon this, but a Google search led to a 2008 article saying how the Islanders stunned fans with their draft choice of Josh Bailey. The article, like most fans, was critical of Snow and the Islanders (not much has changed since 2008, huh?). Well, I think this article shows exactly why us Islanders fans must exhibit patience rather than force our conclusions-based-on-hindsight. As a matter of fact, hindsight is a pretty useless way to measure performance.
We can play the “what if” game all we want. All of us are general managers that can say “Oh, we should have drafted this guy” four years after the fact. Yes, we have all seen Tyler Myers succeed in Buffalo. We all have our opinions on Luke Schenn, who was recently traded from Toronto to Philadelphia. I’m sure most of us saw Mikkel Boedker score important goals for the Phoenix Coyotes during their most recent playoff run. I’m going to stop right there, though. I’m going to explain why hindsight is USELESS.
Does anyone even remember who every single Islanders fan wanted to draft, and who every single “expert” projected the Islanders to draft when they picked 5th-overall in 2008? The team was slated to draft Nikita Filatov! They weren’t picking any of the guys mentioned above…or Colin Wilson…or Cody Hodgson. Nikita Filatov was the guy the Islanders were penciled in to draft until they shocked the world by drafting Josh Bailey.
I mean, this is even an excerpt from this article:
“The thing is, players who can do what Filatov projects to do are hard to find.”
And what is that? Score a hat-trick in his NHL debut and then flame out while disappearing in obscurity? I mean, Nikita Filatov was the sure thing. He was the second-coming of Alex Ovechkin. The Islanders decided to pass “Ovi” to Columbus, a team that is in a much better situation on the ice than the Islanders (ha), for Josh Bailey plus extra draft picks.
The Isles missed out on 6 goals and 8 assists in 53 NHL games. Josh Bailey has logged 291 NHL games, where he recored 47 goals, 73 assists and 120 points. Guess what? Bailey is one of six players in his draft class to break 100 points. The other five are Jordan Eberle, Erik Karlsson, Tyler Myers, Drew Doughty, and Steven Stamkos. Out of those 5, Doughty and Stamkos were never making it to the Island, and the other three were “passed up” although every Islanders fan wanted to get the guy who scored 6 career NHL goals.
You know, maybe the Islanders did “stun fans.” They caused quite a stir back in 2008 because of their reluctance to draft Nikita Filatov…and that’s just it. They were going to draft Filatov. They weren’t going to draft Tyler Myers. Islanders fans would have negatively overreacted had the team drafted Erik Karlsson, this year’s Norris Trophy winner. The Islanders drafted Josh Bailey over Nikita Filatov, so “in hindsight,” the Islanders actually won.
Sure, “in hindsight,” the Islanders could have come up with a better player, but so could the number of GMs who drafted before Erik Karlsson. Don’t jump on Garth for the 2008 draft. Don’t forget that, with Josh Bailey, things are a lot better than they would have been, according to most of us pre-hindsight.
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Filed Under: New York Islanders
Bailey has drastically underachieved. He has been a disappointment. 120 pts in four full NHL seasons is nothing to be excited about. Not saying Bailey is worse than Filatov, he is clearly better. But Bailey was considered a reach pick at #9 by many draft experts and his average of 30 points per full NHL season doesn’t make isles fans feel great about the pick.
I think Bailey provides much more than the 30 points he has averaged. Although his previous three seasons weren’t anything to rave about, the 2011-12 season showed vast improvement in his 2-way game. Bailey played very well on both sides of the puck, and although he was definitely a reach in the draft, and definitely not producing like most want him too, Bailey is still one of the better draft picks from that first round.
I believe Bailey was the third player in his draft class to reach the 100-point plateau. Sure, other guys will catch up (Jordan Eberle comes to mind. He has 119 points while Bailey has 120), but there’s still no saying that Bailey cannot be a 50-60 point guy.
Of course he has to prove it, but I don’t think players have 5-point nights by accident. His window is closing in the eyes of most, but I think that Bailey still has many more better years to come.
As much as Isles fans don’t feel so great about the pick, Bailey is still better than most of what was out there, at least on the score-sheet 4 years after. We will have to see, I guess. If anything, Isles fans can at least find some pride in what should be, if not already, a very solid draft for the Islanders in 2008.
Thanks for reading, and continuing to comment on these articles.
Bailey wouldn’t have played on any other NHL team for at least his first 1 or 2 seasons after he was drafted. Garth had to justify trading down to get him so he forced him into the NHL which was a detriment to his development and to the teams growth, IMHO. What I’m getting at is that the points hes amassed in the NHL are a mirage if you compare them to other draft picks for most NHL teams who don’t rush their players. He would’ve scored allot more than 30 pts per season in the AHL.
With that being said I think Bailey has made some major strides over the last season and I do believe hes ready to come into his own. The kid has the 2nd best set of hands on team, IMHO. He has shown us “Flashes of Bailey”(FOB) that make you excited. Those flashes of brilliance show that he has the talent and the ability to do special things as a hockey player. Lets hope this is the year where is breaks out and shows some consistency.
I think most judge Garth as a puppet. Who else would take a job as GM under Wangs conditions? What happened to Smith?lol So its not Garths fault that his hands are tied. He wouldn’t even admit that. How many times has he said that he has “no constraints” to sign FA’s that can make the team better? That is a lie if I ever heard one because in the same vain, Wanger, said that the team is on strict budget. So to say that Garth isn’t working under financial constraints is to bury your head in the sand. The Islanders are on austerity. I wouldn’t have a problem with this if Wang hired hockey people to run the show. We have seen small market teams have success. Its just hard to do unless you have luck and smart hockey people making the decisions.
Ask yourself, what type of guy would take a job under Wangs conditions as a GM? The answer is “a backup goalie” who is just happy to have the job and get the experience as a pro-hockey GM. This means that we have a guy learning on the job. That is absolute BS. Look at who we have coaching our young guys? A minor leaguer learning on the job. Its like we’re a farm team for coaches and GM’s.
I’m sorry to rain on your parade. I’m just playing devils advocate. But this is how it looks to me and most other isles fans.
I understand how it looks, and the I agree with the “learning on the job” notion. Fact is, Snow is now entering his 7th season as the Islanders GM, though, and I don’t think he’s done a terrible job with what he has had to work with. He’s an experienced GM now, who has been growing with this team. I believe that it is important to have continuity with your General Manager, mostly during a rebuild stage. If the Islanders were not a playoff team in two years, then yes, something’s wrong, but the fact that he basically started the rebuild, to change course now would be a terrible move.
If the Islanders were to make the playoffs this season, I’m sure a lot of people would actually praise Snow for how he has handled the rebuild, and the players that he has developed in order to help the Islanders reach this goal.
Of course, this means the Islanders need to make the playoffs, because it’s been 1 o 6 seasons that Snow has actually made the playoffs.
There are definitely constraints on the team’s budget, as the team will not spend until the arena situation is resolved. To Wang’s defense, it’s his business, so why put in the money if he’s just losing money, but yes, it definitely sucks for us fans. I am a fan, and have hated the losing, and I hate it just as much as any other fan.
Capuano is garbage. That’s all I’m saying about that.
I also agree Bailey was rushed, but I do believe he’s going to breakout. The kid’s still way too young to give up on. He was a reach, but I think he’s showing what he can do, and I think, even if it’s a 40-50-point player that can play on both sides of the puck, Bailey will have an integral role with this team.
I agree with what you posted here. I have to admit I was surprised when you just came out with “Capuano is garbage”, lol. I guess we agree on that too. He’s probably a great guy but just not a great coach, IMHO.
Haha, I’m optimistic, but I’m also not crazy. If there’s one thing I absolutely do not like, it’s the fact that Capuano is still coaching the Islanders, despite a season where he has shown virtually no emotion. I mean, I understand continuity, but come on. The guy just sits there on the bench and feeds the same “they play well” lines after every loss.
I still have a feeling Brent Thompson will be taking over. I would be thrilled.
and he starts off most Islander losses with “Im pleased with effort”. lol
Brent Thompson would be the same shit all over again. We need a seasoned NHL coach.