Defining Playoff Expectations

Each team that qualifies for the NHL Playoffs have a different set of expectations from fans and management. The expectations change from year to year, too. When looking at the San Jose Sharks, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that expectations are much higher than those of teams like Montreal or Boston.

Those are the easy expectations to define. Everyone knows San Jose needs to go deep this year to shed the “chokers” label they so rightfully own. But how about defining reasonable expectations for a team like the recently bounced New Jersey Devils? Or perhaps the Vancouver Canucks? Sure, expectations stem from regular season results, recent Playoff performances (if possible), roster depth and any big trades made between the NHL Entry Draft and annual Trade Deadline.

Although each team is different, it’s unreasonable to expect every Playoff team to reach the Stanley Cup finals. I look at post-season expectations from 4 basic levels.

• Conference Quarter-Final loss (1st round) – Bare Minimum
• Conference Semi-Final loss (2nd round) – Average
• Conference Final loss (3rd round) – Very good
• Stanley Cup Final appearance (4th round) – Excellent

No matter what the results, every team fits in one of these categories. (DUH, I know).

From training camp and onwards, players will always quote cliche sound bites like “our goal is to win the Stanley Cup”. But let’s be honest, only 3-4 teams per year are actually serious when they say that. I understand players and teams can’t say “our goal is to qualify for the Playoffs in a shootout in game 82 of the regular season”, but most fans can differentiate a Stanley Cup contender versus a Playoff contender. To me, that’s probably how GM’s and team executives view their team when looking at trades, etc… At least that’s how I would do it if I were a GM.

Using the ‘Cup contender/Playoff contender’ notion, along with the 4 levels of Playoff expectations, where do this year’s 16 teams fit in? Remember, these aren’t predictions. It’s based on how far each team (reasonably) expects to go in the Playoffs, regardless of their 1st round opponent.  I’ll go first…

Bare Minimum: Montreal, Boston, Colorado

Average: Ottawa,  Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Nashville, Phoenix

Very Good: Detroit, Vancouver, New Jersey,  Buffalo

Excellent: San Jose, Pittsburgh,  Washington, Chicago

Do you agree? Let’s see your expectations!

Stay classy, NHL Playoff teams.