Pre-Season Power Rankings: Middle of the West

After two installments of the Pre-Season Power Rankings I’ve looked at the bottom of the Western and Eastern Conferences. The third installment moves back to the West to see who is stuck in the middle.

Here is a quick refresher of who bottoms out the West. The signing of Antti Niemi by the Sharks did alter the Ducks’ and Predators’ point totals.

15. Edmonton Oilers – 11 Points
14. Columbus Blue Jackets – 26 Points
13. Dallas Stars – 26 Points
12. Anaheim Ducks – 46 Points
11. Nashville Predators – 50 Points

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#10. Phoenix Coyotes – 51 points

Falling from 4th overall at the end of the 2009-10 regular season to 10th place on the Pre-Season list is the Phoenix Coyotes. A key loss on defense and scoring questions amongst the forwards puts the Yotes further down on paper than they will likely end up.

Amid the pure insanity that was the ownership dispute for the Coyotes, they managed an amazing season under new Head Coach Dave Tippett. The Jack Adams winning lead the club to a 50 win, 107 point season. His keen use of wily veterans and hungry up and comers played his system to perfection. I don’t think anyone underestimates what Tippett can do. However, the St. Louis Blues made a similar jump in team productivity on the 2008-09 season only to fall flat in 2009-10. Can Tippett avoid a similar follow up failure? His coaching ability will be paramount in the teams attempt to make it back to the playoffs.

Another key factor in any attempt to make the playoffs is how Ilya Bryzgalov follows up his Vezina Finalist worthy season. Was his statistical triumph rooted in playing behind Tippett’s system or has he fully blossomed as a legitimate goaltender? The games will have to be played to find out, but my guess is Bryzgalov doesn’t fall off the horse like Steve Mason did.

Pittsburgh’s gain was Phoenix’s loss this summer. Zybnek Michalek left the desert for a more lucrative contract on a more stable team. His defensive play, shot blocking and ability eat 20 minutes or more a night on the ice will be sorely missed. Longtime blue-line anchor Ed Jovanovsky remains in his same old position and Derek Morris returns. Add in Keith Yandle and Audrian Aucoin and the Coyotes have a solid two pairings to count on. Not the best, but not the worst. Had they retained Michalek, they could have placed higher.

The big question remains upfront. Scoring goals is the name of the game in the post lockout NHL and the Coyotes have struggled to do that. While scoring by committee can work, at some point those teams begin to struggle. Can anyone on the roster break out and develop in to that needed threat? Shane Doan and Ray Whitney are givens. Exceptional players for what they do, but they are not the high level scorers Phoenix could use. Radim Vrbata has led the team in goal scored, but he was the only one to crack the 20 goal mark. Scottie Upshall did chip in 18 goals in 43 games. His return should help bolster the offense as should a returning Lee Stempniak. However, it’s a fair question to wonder which Stempniak are they getting. The 06-07, 09-10 Lee or the 07-08, 08-09 Lee? Wojtek Wolski is capable to top six play, but is not the finisher they need. The Coyotes have depth in capable players, but too many question marks around those who will be counted on to score the goals.

The wild card for Phoenix is their young prospects. Kyle Turris and Mikkel Boedker look to come back strong after a year in the AHL. Martin Hanzal also wants to build off of his strong 09-10 campaign. Could Brandon Gormley or Oliver Ekman-Larsson step in to the third pairing and have a similar impact to that of Michael Del Zotto? If some of their key prospects jump in and make a splash, Phoenix can bust out of their 10th overall ranking. The capability for such a jump is there, just like in Nashville.

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#9. Minnesota Wild – 53 Points

Minnesota has been sliding over the last few seasons. A perennial playoff franchise has gone through major changes in their coaching staff and front office. The ideology shifts and perceived lack of prospect development has lead many to predict their continued downfall. I think the perception might be premature,

When healthy, Minnesota boasts the second best goaltending tandem in the Western Conference. Niklas Backstrom is an elite of a goaltender as any labeled that way. Josh Harding has graduated from the prospect ranks and now is a budding starting netminder with NHL experience. The two combine to give the Wild a chance to win more often than not.

On paper, their blue-line is patrolled by as solid a group as any in the West. Greg Zannon is a safe and steady defender who logs the most minutes on the Wild penalty kill. To the tune of 3:10 per game. His 196 Blocked Shots were also tops on the team. Marek Zidlicky was second in SHTOI and 3rd in blocks. These two lead the Wild to the 6th best PK in the West. Do not forget Zidlicky’s offensive ability as well. Posting 43 points in 78 games. Assuming good health (which is what happens on paper comparisons) Brett Burns is a vital cog to the Wild’s defense. He brings size and goal producing offense to the point. Add in former Blackhawks first rounder Cam Barker and the Wild’s top two pairings are stacked offensively. Nick Schultz is another defender capable of logging 20 minutes a night. Shane Hnidy provides depth.

The Wild’s two off-season acquisitions of note will play a big part in the team’s ability to win this season. Matt Cullen provides another well seasoned and reliable top 6 forward who can chip in 15-20 goals, 45 plus points and play a solid two-way game. John Madden comes to town fresh off his Stanley Cup victory in Chicago. His winning experience is sure to help close out games. Never underestimate the addition of Stanley Cup Champions to a roster.

Cullen joins a capable group filling out the top two lines. Mikku Koivu, Guillaume Latendresse, Martin Havlat, Andrew Brunette and Antti Miettinen. I know Brunette is getting up in age at 37 years old. However, he has been a consistent 20 goal producer since the lockout. Laendresse was a very effective goal scorer for the Wild last season. Should that trend continue, Havlat will have an easier time producing goals as well. Koivu is possibly the most underrated Center in the West. His skills should lead to a second 70 plus point season. Giving the Wild 6 players fully capable of posting a 20 goal season. Their depth is fairly solid with room to grow. Cal Clutterbuck and Eric Nystrom provide a physical edge. Chuck Kobasew looks to find his 20 goal scoring touch again. James Sheppard looks to prove finally that he was worth the 9th overall selection in 2006. Casey Wellman comes in as a college free agent looking to make his mark.

I think Minnesota is the team that surprises the NHL. That said, they really do rest on the edge of a knife. If older players begin showing their age next season (Brunette, Madden, Zidlicky) and previous injury issues resurface (Havlat, Backstrom, Harding, Burns) they can easily fall to the lottery pick level.

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8. Los Angeles Kings – 58 Points

The Los Angeles Kings are the first team to rank in the playoff picture and they are more likely to rise than fall.

The Kings are lead by their young Norris Finalst, Drew Doughty. The 2nd pick overall in the 2008 draft had an outstanding 2009-10 campaign. scoring 16 goals and registering 53 points in his second full season in the NHL. Logging 24 minutes a night on the ice, he plays in all situations. Following him on defense is the ever stable Rob Scuderi and the potentially great Jack Johnson. Add in former Canuck Willie Mitchell and the Kings blue line is very solid. Could top defensive prospects like Thomas Hickey and Colten Teubert push to make the roster? For now it looks like they would have to over take Davis Drewiske, Peter Harrold and Matt Greene to make the jump to the NHL.

Up front, LA remains as strong as they were before. Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown and Ryan Smyth return as reliable offensive producers and goal scorers. Jarrett Stoll, Michal Handzus and Justin Williams can provide capable depth and a little scoring punch if all goes well. The wild card in the forward ranks is Wayne Simmonds. The 22 year old came on last season and appears to have established himself as an up and coming power forward. What’s impressive is that all 16 of his goals came at even strength. An off-season to get stronger should only benefit Simmonds, so long as his intensity level stays high. Which Alexi Ponikarvosky is LA getting. The 20+ goal scoring threat from Toronto or the underachiever from Pittsburgh? His goal scoring capability should be a positive for LA’s depth, but only time can tell if he can make it work on the west coast. Energy line forwards Brad Richardson and Scott Parse combined for 22 goals in less than 12 minutes ATOI. Will they continue to produce from the bottom of the line up or go the way of Brad Winchster?

What about Brayden Schenn and Oscar Moeller? The two young guns will have a have to work hard to unseat the veterans on the roster.

The big question mark is in net. Jonathan Quick started the 09-10 season very strong. As the season went on fatigue would take its toll on the young netminder. Appearing in 72 games is a lot for any goalie. The 24 year old has plenty of upside to develop in to, but will he go the way of Steve Mason? It can be as hard to tell with goalies as it is with pitchers in baseball. Quick will need to be solid once again if LA is to climb in to the top half of the playoff seeding. Otherwise they are slated for an 6th-8th place finish.

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7. Calgary Flames – 60 Points

Has the demise of the Calgary Flames been exaggerated? I think so.

An able bodied Mikka Kiprusoff still tends the net for the Alberta based club. Giving the Flames the third best goalie in the west. Mikka has been dominate for long stretches to keep Calagry competitive previously. He can still has gas in the tank to do it again. The only concern is how he will hold up by seasons end without a clear back-up to give him days off.

The Flames have an underrated blue-line. Jay Bouwmeester is still every bit as capable of a player as he was in Florida. A full season with him as the clear #1 should help to refocus the highly skilled offensive defenseman. Robyn Regher, Steve Staios and Cory Sarich should provide reliable experience. The growth potential on the Flames backend comes from Mark Giordano and Ian White. The two combined for 15 goals, 42 points and a Plus-24 rating in 109 games. Their presumed development combined with a resurgent Bouwmeester should equal more wins.

At the forward position the Flames are difficult to figure out. On paper they have eight forwards who are all capable of 15-20 goals and 50 or more points. Nicklas Hagman, Rene Bourque and captain Jarome Iginla provide the goal scoring touch. Can Olli Jokinen reclaim his scoring prowess in his second stint in Calgary? Value signing Alex Tanguay returns for his second stint as well. Can his point producing ability be rekindled? Can Daymond Langkow return to form? Can Matt Stajan become a reliable, consistent centerman? There are many questions, but their forward depth is strong (on paper).

The wild card for the Flames are Giordano on defense and Jokinen up front. If Giordano can continue to improve, then the Flames have a solid “1b” to Bouwmeester to count on. Giving them two consistent pairings to bank on. If Jokinen can find some magic and find his point producing capabilities from his previous seasons the Flames have a solid “1b” to Iginla to keep the goal scoring pressure off him.

For now Calgary sits in the playoff picture. Further regression from Bouwmeester, Kiprusoff showing his age and under achieving fowards could spell a second playoff less summer in western Canada.

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6. Colorado Avalanche – 62 Points

The Colorado Avalanche surprised many detractors (myself included) last season. Instead of bottoming out the conference First year Head Coach Joe Sacco lead the youth infused club back to the playoffs as the 8th seed in the West. Now the task becomes much more difficult. Expectations are higher and rookie standouts need to prove their worth in a sophomore campaign.

The Avs should be up to the task.

Returning for what could be his final season is team leader Adam Foote. The veteran should provide all the intangibles a Cup winning veteran should. Leadership, motivation, and direction. Will his age catch up to him? They also boast a fairly mobile and offensive minded crew on the point. John-Michael Liles, Kyle Cumiskey, and Kyle Quincey will provide plenty of puck movement and points from the blue-line. Veteran Scott Hannan should be a solid defender logging 20 minutes a night in a contract season. Ryan Wilson provides size, strength and big hits (ask TJ Oshie and Roman Polak). A youngster like Kevin Shattenkirk could push for the 7th spot and maybe more. The Avs did give up the 6th most Shots Against/Game in the NHL last season. To win more games that trend needs to reverse. Time will tell if they can improve on that number.

Upfront the Avs have to be concerned about slumps. Matt Duchene, the 3rd overall selection in 2008, has a Calder Finalist season to improve on. If anyone can do it, this guy can. He has the determination and desire to get better. A Steven Stamkos type second effort is unlikely, but I would wager he is as good or better than his rookie campaign. The other slump candidate is Chris Stewart, the Blues Slayer. When he is on, he is every bit as good of a power forward as any in the NHL. When he is off, he’s a 3rd line winger. The kicker for Stewart is finding consistency. Example, in the final 10 games of 2009-10 the Avs were fighting for playoff position. Stewart went goalless with only four assists and a Minus-10 rating. If he takes on every team like he takes on the Blues, there is no stopping him. Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk will be relied upon for the primary scoring punch outside of Stewart. Both are more than capable. Depth at the forward position is decent with Cody McLeod, Daniel Winnik and Ryan O’Reilly. What can Brandon Yip bring after a solid 11 Goals in 32 Games rookie performance? Can TJ Galliardi improve on his 15 Goals in 70 Games. How will David Jones come back from injury and build on his solid 23 games last season (10 Goals in 23 Games)? Continued growth can give the Avs six or seven 20 Goal scorers and three or four 30 Goal scorers. A quick strike offense that can finish like the Avs is very difficult to beat.

The 7th 20 Goal man is wild card Peter Mueller. His 20 points in 15 games with the Avs looks good on paper. Will consistency issues bother him in his first full season in Colorado? The former 8th overall selection (2006) has plenty of potential. His rookie season in Phoenix is proof of that (22 Goals and 54 Points in 81 Games). We will find out once he signs and the puck is dropped.

Craig Anderson could be the great equalizer again. I don’t think Colorado wants to test him as much as he was last season. A little more rest (71 starts in 09-10) and fewer shots against (covered that) will help keep Anderson strong throughout the season and in to the playoffs.

The Avalanche were nearly a 100 point team last season even with fighting through injury issues and a young team. The potential to catch fire and be a goal scoring machine moves this team up the Western Conference ladder. Assuming Craig Anderson remains healthy.

* Edited for confusing current Avs and former Quebec Nordiques. Thanks to Aaron Musick and Fred Poulin.