Preseason Power Rankings: Eastern Bottom Five

Last Sunday I introduced my Preseason Power Rankings and submitted for the hockey world’s approval my Western Conference Cellar Dwellers. Thanks for the feed back from those who commented.

Today’s installment moves across the continent to the Eastern Conference. The home of the oldest teams, rabid fan bases, and easy travel.

Here are the five teams at the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

15. New York Islanders – 26 Points

Rebuilds take time. As a Blues and Penguins fan I’ve seen my fair share of rebuilding. The Islanders are starting to come out of theirs. A light is at the end of the tunnel, it’s just not in reach yet.

The Islanders main four on defense has improved greatly. Mark Eaton is a very solid addition. He knows how to win games thanks to the last few years spent doing that frequently in Pittsburgh. Eaton is a solid second pairing defender that won’t hurt a team at even strength and can play on the penalty kill. Another new face is James Wisniewski. He too is a solid second pairing defender. Milan Jurcina continues the trend, giving the Islanders four capable defenders with Mark Streit leading the group. This group can hold its own, but there has to be concern over injuries to all three of their additions. The team’s depth beyond those four is questionable.

In net there is the enigma with an albatross of a contract, Rick DiPietro. Dwayne Roloson is a capable goaltender, but at age 40, what does he have left? The risk for injury issues or sub standard play in net does not breed confidence.

A glimmer of hope comes up front. The Islanders feature a plethora of young, highly skilled forwards in Kyle Okposo, John Tavares, Josh Bailey, Matt Moulson, and the newly drafted Nino Niederreiter. While they may be young and inexperienced they have a very strong draft pedigree. Three of them were taken in the top 10. Doug Weight returns to do what he does best, be a stable and steady leader.

Assumed growth from their young core of forwards means more goals scored than the 214 (20th in the NHL) from last year. However, the 258 allowed against from last season will not be a number improved greatly on while those between the pipes are in question. The net result is another minus goal differential season.

The Islanders are a team that will likely finish better than their initial ranking as their young core matures. Unfortunately for the faithful on Long Island instability in net and youthful inexperience leads to the bottom of the conference to start the season.

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14. Carolina Hurricanes – 29 Points

The Canes blow in to the 2010-11 season as a tropical storm. The 2006 Stanley Cup cannot be forgotten, but long past in the rearview mirror. Injuries to key players robbed the Hurricanes of a more productive 2009-10 season. Sadly, their fortunes don’t appear to be changing.

Franchise cornerstones Eric Staal and Cam Ward return from injury reduced seasons to lead the way. There is just not enough between these two bookends.

Tuomo Ruutu and Jussi Jokinen are proving to be capable top two line players, but the depth Carolina once boasted is not there. Are Sergei Samsonov, Chad LaRose and Eric Cole A productive enough veteran trio to be the secondary scoring punch? Can Brandon Sutter continue to grow? Can first year players Zach Boychuk, Riley Nash and Jeff Skinner make a consistent impact if they make the team? Can Jiri Tlusty benefit from the change of scenery and develop in to some of his potential? The potential is there for all of these young players. There are just many questions around that potential.

The once productive and deep Carolina blue-line is sliding the other direction. New faces come ready to make their mark, but are unknowns at the NHL level. Bobby Sanguinetti and Jamie McBain come in as high level prospects, but need to develop further before they can be counted on. The experience of Joe Corvo, Tim Gleason and Joni Pitkanen will be called upon to log the key minutes. All are solid players in their own right, but not the core of a playoff contender’s defense unit. Anton Babchuk returns and is an obvious wild card. Going back to the Canes 2008-09 Eastern Conference Finals team, Babchuk was an important part of the squad. Producing 16 goals and 36 points from the point. His return will hopefully allow more room for Sanguinetti and McBain room to grow.

Where the rest of the roster has depth questions, Cam Ward will come back healthy and ready to be a rock in net. There are legitimate concerns regarding his injury history, but they do not trump his ability to be an elite netminder. That is why on paper he carries the team away from the very bottom.

Another season shortened by injury for Ward or Staal can easily mean a lottery pick. Those two are the consistent leaders they can be and the youth overachieves, they can push for a finish in the 10 to 12 range.

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13. Toronto Maple Leafs – 32 Points

Wait, Toronto isn’t last? No they won’t be and they shouldn’t be to start. Here is why.

Depth on defense is a recurring theme I will point to in the Pre-Season rankings. On paper Toronto has a better set of defensemen than both Carolina and New York. Dion Phaneuf is previously a Norris candidate and has room to grow still. Tomas Kaberle is a legitimate puck mover and power play threat. Mike Komisarek can be a solid physical defender when healthy. If injury issues are past him for this season, he can be a big bonus. Luke Schenn is getting old and wiser. Now in his third season he should be a reliable defensive player. François Beauchemin returns as a top two pairing player in a third pairing role. The addition of Brett Lebda and the emergence of Carl Gunnarsson add more depth to the NHL blue-line. Jeff Finger may be overpaid, but can be a capable player and addition to cover for injuries.

Jean-Sebastian Giguere will start the season in net with a more mature and ready to “prove himself” Jonas Gustavsson. Again, on paper a substantial upgrade over the Vesa Toskala and Gustavsson duo that started 2009-10.

Where Burke has been criticized for “throwing 20 goal scorers at the wall and hoping one breaks out”, the roster has improved. Phil Kessel is the only “for sure” on the top line, but the growth of Tyler Bozak and Nikolai Kulemin should continue to improve. Clarke MacArthur, Kris Versteeg and Colby Armstrong bring size, scoring touch, and experience to the line up. Christian Hanson is back in the fold as an important energy line presence. Nazem Kadri is poised to take his game to a new level with a spot in the top two lines there for the taking. Though inexperienced, he adds substantial offensive skill to the roster.

These are not ideal improvements by any stretch. However, given what General Manger Brian Burke had to work with, he has made many upgrades to the roster. The heat now comes on Had Coach Ron Wilson. Burke has provided the bodies, Wilson needs to win games.

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12. Florida Panthers – 33 Points

From the front office to on the ice, the Florida Panthers have gone though some noticeable changes this summer.

Gone is longtime forward Nathan Horton. He was shipped to Boston for Defenseman Dennis Wideman. While Horton had yet to fully perform to his abilities, he was their biggest offensive threat. David Booth was taking that title from Horton, but after the concussions sustained last season the young man’s future is in doubt. Outside of those two then scoring ability drops considerably. Michael Frolik, Corey Stillman and Steven Reinprecht are solid players in their own right, but not the finishers the other two are. The bulk of the offensive load will now be carried by Stephen Weiss. The teams top Center will have to build on his impressive 2009-10 season for the the Panthers to win consistently. They are going to see what longtime developing prospects like Shawn Mattiaus and Michel Repik are capable of, but they are not to be counted on just yet. Michael Grabber and Steve Bernier come from Vancouver in the Keith Ballard trade. Bernier will provide depth in the Panthers top 9 and Grabner is an injection of young skill that is ready for NHL action. If Weiss, Frolik and Booth can provide a primary scoring punch they can compete, but there are too many uncertainties with the secondary scoring to place the Panthers higher.

Goaltending is one area Florida should be solid in. Tomas Vokoun has been one of the mist underrated netminders during his tenure with the Panthers. Posting a 2.49 GAA and a .919 Save% in 191 games. Back-up Scott Clemmensen should be a capable fill in when needed. Should Vokoun go down to injury, Clemmensen can jump in with his starting experience in New Jersey. Top prospect Jacob Markstrom comes over to start his North American career in the AHL. The 20 year old Swede is not likely to see NHL action this season, but he can make his case by out shining the veteran Clemmensen at training camp.

The presumed weak spot of this team is their defense. I disagree to an extent. Brian McCabe can still be an effective defenseman. Bryan Allen, when healthy, can be a solid defender. Dmitry Kulikov will be a year stronger and ready forth next step in his development. Add in the offensive ability of Wideman and their puck moving and scoring capability from the blue-line will be a positive. Can the defend? That’s the million dollar question. Don’t underestimate Mike Weave though. He is a very smart and experienced player that will help stabilize the Cats third pairing and improve their penalty kill. He can help bring along someone like 3rd overall selection Eric Gudbranson or developing prospect Keaton Ellerby.

Anything is possible in the Southeast Division, but Florida needs many unknown variables to play out in their favor to get out of the bottom five.

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11. New York Rangers – 36 Points

The Rangers are much like the Nashville Predators in that they were difficult to rank. A team that has done well enough, but on paper has slipped.

Outside of Marian Gaborik, there is little to no scoring ability. Vaclav Prospal can be a producer, but not one a playoff team has as a go to guy. Alex Frolov should help in the finishing department, but will he be a consistent threat? Brandon Dubinsky can become a very soli player, but is he a legitimate point producer? The rest of their line up is made of bangers, instigators and tough guys. Sean Avery and Ryan Callahan can contribute. Just not at the pace needed. At this point in his career Chris Drury is a checking/energy line role player. Much like what became of Keith Tkahuck. What can Artem Anisimov, Mats Zuccarello-Aasen and Evgeny Grachev bring? Youth, skill and questions of their ability to make an immediate impact at highest level. The Rangers just won’t score enough.

The lack of scoring leaves the burden of winning games to the defense and goaltending.

The defense has the potential to carry the Rangers. Can they defend well enough to keep games close? Marc Staal is becoming a very stable and steady defender. Few questions there. Michael Del Zotto and Matt Gilroy have the offensive skills, bur have yet to prove they can play a defensive game to match. Michal Rozsival didn’t have a good 2009-10 season and will need to prove he is is worth the extension the Rangers gave him. What about Wade Redden? No one knows what he will bring to the table. Steve Eminger and Dan Girardi add depth, but aren’t reliable options for a competing team.

The one roster spot with few(er) concerns is the guys between the pipes. Henrik Lumdqvist struggled in 2009-10 because his team did. However, he is still an elite netminder who can single handedly win games. Add in a more reliable back up in Martin Biron and Lundqvist should be able to rest more and be stronger throughout the season.

The Rangers are the team in the end that will bottom out in the East. For now their experience, goaltending and presumed toughness has them ranked higher on paper than they should be.

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In Summary

All five of these teams are very closely ranked. Only 10 points separates 15th from 11th and as you will see later only 14 points separates 15th from 9th. A far cry from the 42 points that separates 15th from 9th in the West.

Anyone of these teams could overachieve and challenge for the playoffs. At the same time they could all struggle and end up with a lottery pick. Only time will tell.

Check back this weekend for rankings 10 through 6 in the Western Conference.