Preseason Power Rankings: Western Cellar Dwellers

“Is it hockey season yet?”

The quote repeated (and re-tweeted) daily by the faithful fans from Vancouver to Minnesota to Carolina to New York. Everyone is ready for training camps, preseason games and another opener in Europe.

All three are still close to a month (or more) away. How do hockey fans find their fix in the between time?

Predictions!

I’ve got your fix right here for the next few weeks. As I break down the best and worst of each conference in my preseason power rankings.

The rankings will be broken down in to three postings per conference. Ranks 15 to 11, 10 to 6 and 5 to 1.

Ranking System:
Each team is ranked from 1 to 15 according to how they compare against their conference peers in various categories.

Each rank is assigned a point value.
Rank 1 = 15 points
Rank 2 = 14 points
….
Rank 14 = 2 points
Rank 15 = 1 point

Categories:
Goaltending, Top 6 Forwards, Top 4 Defensemen, Power Play, Penalty Kill and Coaching.

Two categories are scored based on thee tellers of placement. They are Team Toughness and Role Players/Depth (3rd Pairing and Bottom 6 Forwards). The top five earn 5 points, middle five earn 3 points and bottom five earn 1 point.

The total possible points a team can earn is 100.

The preseason ranking is not statistically based. Since every team has made changes, I find it unfair to base the ranks off of old information. This is my honest interpretation of the rosters as of August 29th.

After both conferences are ranked I will combine them in to one master NHL ranking. Using the same method as described above to order the teams 1 through 30. The point totals will be increased to a total of 200. There will be the same six categories for 30 points max each and two for 10 points max each.

Each week during the season I will update the rankings. The rankings will then be based off of stats. Not Puck Prospectus style, but just raw numbers. As in power play percentage, point total, GAA, Hits and so on. The better the numbers, the higher the ranking per category. Each conference will be ranked and then combined for one master NHL ranking.

First up are the five teams at the bottom of the Western Conference.

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#15. Edmonton Oilers – 11 Points

Just a few seasons ago, in 2007-08, Edmonton was making a late season push to make the playoffs. They would fall short of the 8th spot and slide down hill from there. Injury issues and lack of depth turned the bright future with Gagner, Coglinao, Gilbert and Penner in to a nightmare fall to the worst record in the league.

Their reward was Taylor Hall, but the waiting game to get out of the cellar remains. Hall can step in with his winning pedigree and make an immediate impact. That won’t be enough as the roster lacks depth down to the fourth line and third pairing. Edmonton has a line up full of supplemental players, but no one who can carry the load. Hall as a rookie can’t be expected to be the one. At least not yet.

The biggest issues facing the Oilers are who will start in net and how will a flipped roster respond.

Nikoli Khabulin is a legitimate starter still, but is facing the end of his career through a DUI. Can Jeff Deslauriers take the next step in his development? What about Devan Dubnyk? He seems like a total wild card who struggled greatly at the professional level last season. Are they banking on Martin Gerber? Hopefully he can stabilize the situation, but he cannot pull them out of it. Too bad the cards just cant fall right because Antti Niemi would be an awesome fit for Edmonton.

The Oilers are hoping that the return of Ales Hensky will spark their mundane offense. If anyone can do it there, its Ales Hemsky. Lots of potential in Brule, Gagner, Cogliano and Penner that hasn’t materialized yet. Someone in that group needs to step up and become a legitimate threat to spread the pressure around and keep it off Hemsky and Hall. How Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson fair in their rookie campaigns will be every interesting to follow.

Edmonton would be ranked much higher if this was about potential and skill. They are getting a massive influx with three very promising prospects. Questions in net and a throughout the line up mean another last place finish is likely. For what its worth, I personally think they don’t finish in the bottom five league wide.

Who to watch for? Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle

#14. Columbus Blue Jackets – 26 Points

Who are the Columbus Blue Jackets?

A team that surprised most of the hockey world when they made their first ever playoff appearance in 2008-09. A hot young goalie (who won the Calder) playing behind a line up of youngsters lead by an elite scorer. Then come expectations and struggle and a slide down to familiar territory. Are they a playoff level team or a one hit wonder?

Until this line up fills out more, the 08-09 season is flash in the pan.

Rick Nash is a regular of a scorer as there is. He is rock steady and reliable by the end of the season to lead the team’s offense. The question comes around as to who else can score besides him? RJ Umberger is a very solid player, but not a point producer to take the heat off Nash. Antionette Vermette is a steady two-way center, but only moonlights as a scoring threat. Kristain Huselius is consistent, but doesn’t have that extra gear. Derek Brassard has the skill but hasn’t turned teh corner in his development yet. Jakub Voracek could be the guy, but has to tporve it first.

Just like Edmonton, Colmubus has a strong group of supplemental players with not enough developed high level skill.

Their blue-line leaves much to be desired. Kris Russell should be able to take the next step in his development this season as an effective puck mover. Anton Stalman still has to prove he can be more than a power play threat.  A defense comprised mainly of marginal second pairing types will not be good enough to compete for a playoff spot.

Steve Mason is the wild card for the Blue Jackets. If he reverts back to his rookie form he can keep them in many games they shouldn’t be in. The defense just isn’t good enough to give him the chance.

Perhaps new Head Coach Scott Arniel can rally the team and push them in the right direction. Can he step up from the AHL ranks like Joe Sacco, Davis Payne, Dan Bylsma and Bruce Boudreau and impact his team positively?

Too much uncertainty leads to another lottery pick finish.

Who to watch for? Jakub Voracek and Kris Russell

#13. Dallas Stars – 26 Points

Three seasons ago the Dallas Stars ran over the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks en route to a Western Conference Finals match up against the eventual Stanley Cup winner, the Detroit Red Wings. Since that loss at the hands of the Wings, the Stars have not been back to the playoffs or been a legitimate contender for the second season. A very successful franchise for nearly twenty years is now in a downward spiral.

Extended success can be very difficult to achieve and often comes with a steep price. Dallas has not kept up with other top level pre-lockout teams like Detroit because they haven’t been able to develop future players like them. In all fairness few can. Still, Dallas hasn’t really developed and retained a legitimate core player, aside from Loui Eriksson and James Neal, since 2005.

Just like the two teams before them, the Stars have large concerns in net on the blue-line. Their relative weakness there will be their undoing against teams with more talent spread out over four lines and three pairings. Kari Lehtonen has yet to live up to his billing as a high draft pick. Can he do it in Dallas? The odds are against him.

Assuming Neal is re-signed, Dallas can ice a capable top two lines. Brad Richards, Mike Riberio, Neal, Eriksson, Brenden Morrow and Jamie Benn can match up with most team in the west. However, like last season, that won’t be enough as their bottom two lines lack a scoring punch. If the top is shut down, the bottom can’t contribute.

Stephane Robidas is a consistent presence on the blue-line, but is not a number one anchor the team lacks. The remaining parts of their defensive depth leave much to be desired offensively. Trevor Daley’s top season is a 25 point campaign in 2008-09. Mark Fistric looks good with 10 points and a Plus-27 rating, but only averaged 14 minutes on the ice. Matt Niskanen had a solid rookie season and has put up a fair amount of point sin three seasons, but is not the high level player they need more of. There is a lot of potential talent on defense. Many of their projected NHL roster players are first and second round draft picks. Yes, defensemen take time to grow and a longer period of development is expected. Most of their depth has had time to grow and it’s time for them to step up.

Dallas could be a team that goes either way. Should Lehtonen realize his potential and their defense mature and maximize their abilities this season they can compete for the 8th spot. If that doesn’t happen, they are looking at a lottery pick.

Who to watch for? Loui Eriksson and Jamie Benn

#12. Anaheim Ducks – 46 Points

The Ducks are an interesting team to look at. If it was not for having a solid netminder in Jonas Hiller and superb top two lines, Anaheim would be much lower in the rankings. It’s become obvious how big of a hole their defensive depth has become after Hall of Famers Chris Pronger and Scott Neidermeyer moved on.

On defense they stand to add a god amount of young skill in Cam Fowler and Luca Sbisa. Can they make an immediate impact while aging veterans like Toni Lydman, Andy Sutton and Lubomir Vishnovsky hold down the fort? The biggest questions surround a few defensemen who’ve already tasted NHL action. What do the Ducks have in Brett Fresterling, Bredan Mikkleson and Sheldon Brookbank? If potential fulfills quickly, the Ducks blue line will compete. Only time will tell.

There are few questions regarding their forwards once Bobby Ryan is signed. A top line of Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry is second only to the Sharks triple threat in the west. A secondary line of Jason Blake, Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne has a plethora of experience and winning history. If Joffrey Lupul can come back healthy from his back issue and players like Matt Beleskey and Dan Sexton continue to grow, the Ducks will have three solid lines.

Jonas Hiller should remain a consistent presence for the Ducks. He still has room to grow and get better, but his level of play surpasses Deslauriers, Mason and Lehtonen. A key reason why the Ducks will not finish in the lottery pick range like the three previous teams likely could.

The playoffs could be in store for the Ducks if Hiller continues his growth and they get secondary scoring.

Who to watch for? Cam Fowler and Bobby Ryan

#11. Nashville Predators – 50 Points

Nashville is a team I want to rank higher. There are just certain intangibles that franchise possess that always make them a competitor and tough to play against. That said, these rankings are bout roster comparisons on paper. Going in to the season who has the best stuff. Right now, Nashville just isn’t on par with the conferences best.

Their top pairing is one of the two or three best in the league. Ryan Suter and Shea Weber make for an amazing combination of speed, finesse, toughness, offensive power and defensive strength. Below them are a lot of question marks. Jon Blum and Cody Franson could become impact players from the blue-line, but haven’t proven their wort in the NHL yet. Is Ryan Ellis strong enough to earn a regular NHL job? Can Kevin Klein or Francis Bouillon step up and take charge of the “#3″ spot vacated by Dan Hamhuis? What about Alexander Sulzer and Ryan Parent? Aside from the top two, there are just too many “ifs”.

Team Captain Jason Arnott has been swapped out for the speedy Matt Lombardi. Former 8th overall selection Colin Wilson will move on to NHL action. Patrik Hornqvist is a year older and wiser. There is growth potential in their top two lines to be a productive group. Just no one capable of being a big goal scoring threat outside of Hornqvist. JP Dumont and Martin Erat really aren’t that type of player. Steve Sullivan can be, but he too is a year older and when you get in to your late 30s the question of continued production is a legitimate one.

Goalie Pekka Rinne should be a consistent bright spot for the Preds. Of the five teams listed so far he is the best of the bunch between the pipes.

An elite top pairing, solid goal tending and superior coaching from Barry Trotz will keep Nashville in contention, just not let them score enough for a top 8 finish.

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Love or hate my rankings, this is where I see the bottom of the Western Conference. Check back next week for the Eastern Conference Cellar Dwelllers.