THE UNUSUAL SUSPECTS: What The Isles Will Likely Do This Draft
BDGallof | Jun 21, 2010 | Comments 18
The NY Islanders march to the beat of a different drummer, even where scouting and prospect assessment is concerned. How do we know this? Just track their picks for the past few years, about the time where Mike Milbury was out and a new system was brought in. That system has created quite a bit of draft picks that have actually seen the light of NHL day. This is not really the norm. Very often, a few develop, but most never see any NHL time, a shot in the dark that usually fades away.
When choosing in the entry draft, unless you are at the very top of the list, very often you are not going to get someone who will go into the NHL
right away. Very often, especially after the 2nd round, those fortunes of NHL time sink fast.
Let’s take an entry draft year, let us go with 2004.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2004e.html
Take a good look down that list and watch how it gets sparser and sparser on NHL games played or even any NHL time at all. Sure, there are jewels deep in there, like an oasis in the middle of a desert. Even better, if we now click to make it list in GAMES PLAYED order, it comes far clearer…
Yes, sure the wonderful Marc Streit, the former Isles Chris Campoli were deep picks that show near the top, but look at most of the rounds that are shown. It is the simple math of selection, but look deeper and see where most come from as well. Look any other year and you will see the same elements.
These days, the reality of making a mistake during the draft is much worse than the old days as there is a salary cap and new CBA. Mistakes are very unforgiving now. Now add in the rise of the psychological factor that is being used across sports, and you have a new elements to add to the equation of judgment. How much so….take a look at this piece written about the NFL’s NY Giants just two months ago….
Teams want to know it all: NFL prospects take psychological, personality tests before draft
Monday, April 19, 2010
Jenny Vrentas/The Star-Ledger
“From clinical interviews and personality tests, psychologists create for teams a profile of a prospect, and also grade the risk of drafting him. The aim is to bring in players who not just improve the team on the field, but who also fit in smoothly in the locker room.
“The psychological and character piece is probably 10 percent of the whole process for a team,” said sports psychology consultant Robert Price, who conducted pre-draft evaluations for the Giants for a decade. “You don’t make it because you do well in an interview. But if you don’t have a good grade, you will drop off someone’s draft board pretty quickly.”
In the months leading up to the draft, teams screen as many players as possible at the NFL Combine, senior all-star games and pre-draft visits.
Players are classified as one of 16 personality types through the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, and scored on traits like dominance, independence and leadership via the California Psychological Inventory. In interviews, they’re asked simple questions like “Where did you grow up?” and tougher ones about family tragedies or legal trouble.”
I think some hockey teams use it far more than just 10%. For the Isles, I think it has as much heft as any other mark.
Thus, here is my theory…
As I wrote last weeks on suggestions for the draft, taking in all the other Isles blogosphere takes on the upcoming draft, doubts began nagging me. I was missing something. I was making an error in judgement. I was sure of it. I kept with it anyway, because I got lost on Erik Gudbranson’s size, the fact the Isles needed a dman of his size and style, and his one-on-one personality.
Instead, it is my gut belief is that the Islanders will not select any of the popular choices this coming draft. Yes, they will ignore the blogospheric and bloggeriffic hype of Erik Gudbranson, and even the side bets of Burmistrov, Gormley, and Connolly. Some blogs have made all sorts of bets, featuring all the players, just to cover their bases. Well, every one of them might be wrong….
In fact, the chances of them taking a dman with the #5 pick might be a bit of a low percentage.
Why? Because the blogosphere, fans and the so-called scouting experts are forgetting one cardinal rule when it comes to drafting kids.
DO NOT DRAFT ON POSITION. Take the best player available.
The best that fits your system, your template, your ideal. You don’t take pieces like a jigsaw, hoping they develop to fit your puzzle. Kids take years to develop…sometimes 4, 5 or even 6 years later. Within that scope of time, the puzzle is always changing…
Well, that folks is why none of those popular choices will likely be on the Isles hit list, especially with the Isles in the #5 spot.
It’s not that kids like Gudbranson are not well-regarded. Just does not fit the Isles best practices and criterias…and those for the Isles have been very plain and very clear for at least two drafts now…
Character, development system, hockey awareness and smarts.
These things I believe, when it comes down to the Isles choice, are paramount. They will wash away any hype about size, physicality, mean streak, smooth interviews, cool mystique and anything else that might bend others who are not gauging the most important aspects…
BEST FIT & MOST LIKELY SUCCESS (aka…a safe bet?)
I think these last two things are the vision and goals here. Who will fit the clear dynamic system the NY Islanders organization has put into place NOT only on the NHL ice, but also in their AHL ice in Bridgeport. Above all, when you pick this high in the draft, YOU MUST get something for it. You must get a NHL caliber player who can be a top 6 forward, top 3 dman, or starter goalie. Thanks to the CBA, salary caps, and a tough situation for many NHL teams these days, there simply is no room for error.
This is why the team selected Bailey, Tavares, made deals to grab de Haan, and more. They are picking based on a system…and veering from it just will not happen this coming draft.
SOME HINTS:
If you look at the Isles most successful picks lately, the Islanders have made a lot of early picks from WHL and OHL teams that play a successful system (lets not also forget the US under-18 team). In fact, if you look at the predominance of picks that have succeeded in the last 6 or 7 years, it has been clearly in certain usual places.
The key element seems to be a high scrutiny for system players with good developmental success. They seem to hone in on all-situation players with a high hockey sense and IQ. Tends to be a solid WHL, OHL (mostly) foundation. They focus on a system player who will thrive and develop further in the Isles AHL and then NHL systems.
Sure the Isles also take from all sorts of places deeper in the draft, but if you take a look at their sets of picks you will see a pattern emerge:
They take their most important top picks from clear established leagues, with a tendency for seeking a competitive edge, high hockey sense, and well-roundedness. They also might also seem a SAFE pick. Probably for good reason, a rebuild cannot work if they cannot pick the bricks that will hold the structure together. Makes it key that the Isles choose someone who is a can’t miss to play on the NHL level, to the system they are employing…
THEIR RECIPE:
Then add their focus on character and psychological evaluation. At the NHL combine, NY Islanders main psyche guy was on-hand as they gave out a 180 question personality test.
Character and disposition count. They like good work ethics. Leadership. Two way play. A team player. Someone to mesh with others in the locker room besides on the ice. They also don’t seem to care on size, meanness or anything else that makes others salivate. In other words, they might judge strictly on core elements solely. They don’t bother with hype, latest trends, or anything than their own parameters.
OK, let’s now take all those elements and start to mix them and see who rises to the top…
My belief is it will likely be a forward, not a defenseman to start the 1st round. I seem them catching dmen later. They might even move backward from #5 to get their man… like they did with Josh Bailey.
So Here Are The Unusual Suspects
Has not visited the Isles….
*Austin Watson
(BD’s most likely suspect of those who did not visit Long Island)
Austin was willing to play anywhere the Windsor Spitfires put him, but he was getting lost on the 4th line there behind their stacked established players. Waived his no trade to go to the Petes and tore it up, showing far more than being just window dressing. Blocks shots. Does whatever it takes, and Isles might love that. Got a nasty feeling that this, like Josh Bailey two years ago, might be the 2010 Entry Draft surprise. Austin 3:16 says: “I skated past your ass”, and the Isles really might be buying-in.
Jeff Skinner
Contains a lot of hockey intangibles, including lethal shot and goal scoring skill set. Not the greatest skater, but same was said of Tavares. Great hockey vision. Some feel he is highly underrated and might be the steal of the draft. Might the Isles have lasered in on him? You cannot discount this possibility. Scoring ability and those positive attributes, in a system that can lend itself for him to thrive might make him more than dangerous on the NHL level.
Dark horses of those who have not visited the Isles
Quinton Howden
Not perfect, but a speedy two way player who has excellent defensive abilities besides an ability to score.
>
The Unsual Suspects of those that have visited the Isles…
*Ryan Johansen (BD’s most likely suspect if visiting the team counts)
Has all the tools, has visited the Isles. Under the radar, but really is the type of guy the Isles might really look for. 2 way player with grit, that seems to be good at just about everything. Extremely well-rounded player. System player who thrives in that system. This plus everything else might make him a well-regarded pick in the Isles eyes. Picking him would not be a HUGE surprise, or shouldn’t be. Though, might be a surprise to those who are enamored with El Nino, since they both play for Portland.
Nino Niederreiter (my personal preference)
I still love this kid. I see Johansen as the more likely pick by the Isles due to criteria fulfillment, but this kid’s grit, smarts, and competitive edge really is what I like in a player. To me, personally, Nino is a can’t-miss prospect. Only weakness I have seen is defensively, but seems to have gotten better there. But his play, speed and type of style, to me, would really do well on the NHL level for a team like the Isles besides lend itself to the uptempo system they employ. “El Nino” is my personal hope at the #5 spot. Wouldn’t be disappointed if they took Johansen over him, but will miss not being able to use his nickname.
DARK HORSES:
Mikael Granlund (has visited, and only a dark horse due to new parameters)
No OHL or WHL, but Granlund is a dynamic offensive dynamo. High hockey senses. Cannot discount him, size wouldn’t matter to Isles.
Brett Connolly
If they feel the medicals are clear, cannot discount his choice either. High skillset and character. The problem is his type of injuries does matter and do have an effect. Isles have had a bevy of injury woes that might have then gun-shy on Brett.
Dmen To Consider because they do fit the template…
Brandon Gormley
Cam Fowler
Mark Pysyk
Jonathan Merrill* (don’t discount them going here over the others. Lots of upside)
Those that fit the template at the back of the 1st round or start of the 2nd?
Jaden Schwartz* (very intriguing kid who might be on the Isles list IF they can trade back into the round)
Tyler Toffoli
Later is also where you might see a Tinordi, McIlrath, Forbort, and others taken. Could Isles get back into the 1st round to take a sharp dman?
NOTE ON THE CASINO:
Newsday has Nassau Coliseum inaccurately cited as a likely venue for the casino for the Shinnecock nation.
Per a ToH source ,who did admit.they wouldn’t be able to stop Mangano or the county, they have already heard from many concerned citizens and Uniondale/Hemspstead groups over it to know there will be major opposition over it. The Shinnecock nation will only come to a location that welcomes them.
Newsday calling it likely venue location is irresponsible and lacking any pertinent local information. Do these guys even have a Town of Hemspstead beat writer anymore?
The Coliseum location has major opposition which Newsday is either oblivious of or dodging. Or both.
As for word of the ToH vaunted developmental plans of their own for the area….nothing. They are now over one month late to their Memorial Day weekend planned announcement.
Author would like to thank Nick Giglia, my fellow Isles blogger, for his help to bounce ideas, thoughts and conversation for this blog.
Filed Under: Featured • Featured Rumors • New York Islanders • NHL • Prospects • Rumors
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Nice breakdown of the Islanders way of thinking about the draft. My bet is they will pick a defenseman with their choice.
Very interesting article to read, with truth to it: neither Bailey or DeHaan were expected to be taken so high, and there’s a very good chance Islander fans will be surprised on draft day.
The more I read about Gormley, the more I feel he is going to be our pick and future #1 defenseman. Smart, two-way defenseman with character.
I’m starting to get used to draft day surprised from Snow and company, however.
Good read, BD.
I dig the thinking on Johansen and/or Nino. I’m not sure that the Isles are a lock to move back to pick someone unexpected. I’m pretty sure that they’ll stick at 5 to see where the chips fall. However, if Fowler and maybe Gormley is still there then maybe they pick one of those defensemen. Otherwise, if the guy they had targeted is taken, then they could move back a few picks and grab one of either Nino or Johansen. As a side note, this is some of the more logical thinking about the draft that I’ve heard.
cannot seethe team picking soeone that has not been to LI for a pre-draft visit…highly unlikly…but, on the bright side…we will all soon find out….2010 draft…here we come…I am excited….as then free agent frenzy will begin.
well, i’d have to agree…
however, they also meet at combine, and sometimes visits cannot be scheduled due to issues or things on both sides.
As far as Jon Merrill, he was suspended this past year and I’ve read at several sites that his combine interviews were horrible, so I don’t see him being ideal from a character standpoint.
Even if his character was ideal, from a ranking standpoint, he is in the 15-25 range, so I think he should be in that late first/early 2nd category with Schwartz and Toffoli..
I wouldnt mind Merrill as a SECOND first round pick, but passing on the top 10 guys and moving down to take Merrill as our first selection, I’ll puke.
If, the Isles like him, we have the assets in two 2nd and two 3rd rounders to move into the 15-20 range and get him without having to give up our 5th overall choice.
As far as Gudbranson no longer fitting the criteria, don’t disregard your initial gut feeling! With all the info that comes in during the last week or two leading up to the draft, it’s easy to start second guessing our first choice or the obvious choice.
Go down your criteria, what doesn’t Gudbranson have?
character: double yes.
leadership: yes yes (called captain material)
hockey awareness and smarts: yes (he’s not Gormley in this department, but everything I read says he thinks the game well)
system player: the Isles like puck moving defensemen and he is said to be a smart player that makes a good first pass and has good offensive potential.
He might not be the top puck moving d man, but given his other skills and intangibles, he certainly moves the puck move then sufficiently enough to fit the system.
A kid with his character, skating ability for a big man (another thing I love about him), willingness to lead a team and stand up for teammates, along with offensive ability and good puck skills should fit ANY system. He is a hockey player.. PERIOD!
i removed my meeting with him from the equation. charisma does not make a prospect or NHL player. If you look at most players taken in the 4-6 spots historically, the safe bet is a forward. I think Isles rebuild effort hones on safer bets. They tend to take Dmen later. Or outside top 10
Got to disagree with you, BD. I personally feel that the best pick, taking all the intangibles into account that you described above, seems to be Gudbranson. According to what I’ve read, he’s a solid kid, good character guy who can be an anchor for the defense for a decade. They need that to compete for a Cup. Chances are, the best available at #5 is going to be a d-man, since Gormley, Fowler and Gudbranson have all been projected to go around #5.
Look at what guys like Pronger and Keith did for their teams this year. The Isles don’t have a d-man on the roster now or in the system that is projected to be the impact shut-down defender that Gudbranson is projected to become. The Isles have drafted a lot of forwards over the past two drafts and also added guys like Moulson and Schremp to the roster in that time. The D-men they’ve drafted, aside from Hamonic and de Haan have not been overly impressive.
I’m hoping for Gudbranson or Fowler at #5, but would be okay with Gormley also. I’m just not that excited about the prospects of drafting a forward at #5 or worse yet, trading down out of #5 to take a lesser player.
Jethro, the point that BD is making (we talked this to death for a few days) is that it’s more than the player’s talent per se. The system in which the player plays in junior is also important, because strong system players are more able to adapt to a new system. Saying that on paper Gudbranson has the SKILLS that make him the best fit for the Islanders (which is true), doesn’t in and of itself mean that the whole picture indicates the same thing. Look at his team, the Kingston Frontenacs: who has come out of there in the last 20 years? All I see is Drake Berehowsky (very similar to Gudbranson in his draft hype, flamed out), Chris Gratton, and Andrew Raycroft. Guys like Johansen and Niederreiter, who play a powerful system that took them from worst to first, Jeff Skinner, a powerful offensive player who could thrive in the Isles’ system, and the like could likely be the best picks from the perspective of Isles brass in the long run.
Remember, it’s about whom the Isles believe will be the biggest contributor to their team, not necessarily who is the best player on paper on June 25.
Thoroughly enjoyed this read. Broke down what most of us suspect/have noticed/have realized from no less than the past two drafts, putting the Islander’s likely thinking pattern into a logical perspective. Then possibilities based on this thesis led to a sound preview.
As a fan, I personally tend to agree heavily with the direction of the thought patterns presented here and see this as a draft where taking a Johansen/Niederreiter at 5 is hardly unthinkable, with moves similar to those conducted in the ’08 draft almost likely.
In addition, the players Watson, Schwartz, and Howden would seem to fit the bill in connection with the method behind the Islanders’ drafting madness that’s being introduced here. Could one of them SURPASS the usual suspects on the Islanders’ list, prolly meaning that trading down – perhaps considerably – is likely? Or would one them be worth moving back up for, perhaps costing another 3-5 picks in the process? Will they Baileyize again? Will they de Haanate the draft again? Will they do both – or do they just feel that a Fowler/Gormley/Gudbranson possess a level of talent that far outweighs the attributes of the others?
Gonna be a fun weekend!
bd, i get your main point but come on what is the point of throwing out all sorts of names hoping one sticks to the wall. there is really no point in doing that. btw, i wouldn’t be surprised by anything the islanders do because they are the islanders afterall.
Watson, Johansen and Skinner is not throwing a bunch of names against a wall. My belief that one of these three will be the Isles 1st selection in this coming draft. I still place El Nino in there, but see Isles taking Johansen over him. This list and philosophy is a full out veer from almost any list out there….I’m going out on a limb and saying why.
As for the additional ones, they become more apt to be selected than Gudbranson or others. Though I do see the Isles taking forward first, I did list dmen that are now more likely to be chosen due to the Isles criteria.
Unlike others who are citing the Usual Suspects, I believe that it is these UNusual ones who are not being featured who are more likely to be selected, and said why. Pretty clear.
fair enough if you think one of those three will be our selection. i’ve read a ton of sh*t about this year’s draft since we drafted tavares and de haan (as an isles fan, you don’t have much else to look to) and i’m just not sold on using our first pick on guys like watson and skinner…they are not top 10 talent…ill give you johansen though……none of this sh*t would have mattered if the isles hadn’t gotten meaningless points during the end of the season. they could have coasted with fowler off and into the sunset. we’ll see what happens in 24 hrs. though
I think something is really flawed here. If the Islanders do operate under these parameters it’s no wonder they’re a bottom of the barrel team. These kids grow up being coached by multiple and I mean multiple coaches and playing in different systems, just because a kid played within a particular system doesn’t mean he can’t adapt to the Islanders system. If you’re not drafting the best talent available you’re not building the best team possible, period.
This system approach should have a bearing on who you draft to a degree but to put as much stock into it that Islanders apparantly do is a flawed approach. And yes, size doesn’t seem to matter with the Isles, another flawed approach, when’s the last time you saw a team as soft and as small as the Isles win the cup?
[...] who pushed dmen or just didn’t have enough draft acumen to hazard a guess. History dictated, as I cited in a previous blog a while ago, that it is FORWARDS not defense that tend to develop to NHL-level at the 4-6th picks of the 1st [...]