Pisani's Game 5 winner

There was something in the air that night, the stars were bright, Fernando. - ABBA

I hate that song. I hate ABBA. But nonetheless every time Fernando Pisani scored a goal it would pop into my head. I lived with that for seven years and now it’ll be stuck in your head all day, enjoy.

Fine you want something else to think about, think about Game 5. The shorthanded breakaway from the blue line. Pisani beating Ward high glove side. MacT giving it to the fans right after the goal. I know exactly where I was and who I was with when Fernando scored that goal.

I may not have liked the song but I did like Pisani. He’s been slowed down significantly over the past couple of seasons as he battled ulcerative colitis, back problems, and a broken ankle but I think he’s still got a little bit left in the tank. For $500k the Blackhawks get a solid defensive player who kills penalties and has a bit more offensive flair than you might expect at first.

Unlike the four year $10 M contract he signed with the Oilers after his spectacular 2006 playoffs (14 goals in 24 games) Pisani can outplay this contract, something the Hawks are going to need a few players to do if they plan to repeat. Pisani can be a third line player but if injuries force him onto the fourth line he should still be a value contract.

That the Oilers didn’t identify Pisani’s value leaves me somewhat stunned. I’d have taken him for double what the Hawks paid but it seems as if the Oilers never even picked up the phone to talk to him about a new deal. I think the Oilers could use a solid penalty killer like Pisani but I guess Tambellini doesn’t agree.

Fernando, I wish you luck in Chicago. I’ll never forget Game 5.

The One Hundred Million Dollar Man

Today’s signing of Ilya Kovalchuk by the New Jersey Devils to a rumored 17 year deal worth more that $100 million is the latest example of an NHL team utilizing a nice little loophole in the CBA to their advantage. Other deals that have taken advantage of the same loophole include the Luongo, Hossa, and Zetterberg contract. If you aren’t a salary cap nerd and this loophole isn’t familiar to you, allow me to explain.

Contracts that take advantage of this loophole are for a term longer than the player will likely play, are heavily front end loaded, and are worth almost nothing in the final years of the deal; years when the player is often over 40 and very unlikely to still be playing. Here comes the good part, because the deal was signed before the player turned 35 there is no cap hit for the final years should (in reality when) the player retires.

Numbers are always easier to understand than wordy explanations so let’s take Hossa’s contract as an example. Last year at age 30 he signed a 12 year, $63.3 million deal with the Hawks; the cap hit for the deal is $5.275 annually. In the first eight years of the deal Hossa will be paid $59.3 million of the total contract value, or on average $7.4125 million a season. If Hossa decided to retire after turning 38 he’d leave just $4 million on the table and the Hawks will have saved over $2.1 million against the cap every year.

The benefit for the player and the team when it comes to contracts like this is obvious; the team reduces their cap hit and the player gets his money. And this is exactly why there is no rush to close the loophole because both sides love it. If the deal is good for both sides then there’s no harm, right?

Well not exactly. If I’m a middle of the pack NHLers – say in the 20 goal, 40 point range – this deal would drive me insane because it costs me money. When my agent sits down to negotiate my next contract he’ll pump up all my good traits and find comparable players that I deserve to be paid like. But if the NHLs elite players are signing contracts worth less on average than what they’re actually worth then that brings down the value of all other players as well. I know we’re talking about guys getting paid millions to play hockey but who wouldn’t want every penny that they can get, after all a career ending injury is always a possibility.

I’ll go on record as saying that I think that contracts like the one Kovalchuk signed today and ridiculous and are a bad idea for the NHL. If Kovalchuk’s contract is in fact a 17 year deal it’ll expire when he’s 44, am I really supposed to believe he’ll still be playing at 44? What about the next contract that expires when the players is 46? Or 48? Teams are going to keep pushing this until finally the NHL has to say no to a deal because the term is just unbelievable and then all hell will break loose.

But what I think doesn’t matter when it comes to CBA issues. And there is no reason for the owners to close this loophole since it’s helping them from a cap perspective. When push comes to shove, if this loophole is going to be closed it’s going to have to come from the NHL rank and file because they’re the ones that are getting hurt by this; the elite are still getting their money and the 4th line grinders and rookies are going to get under a million dollars a year regardless, so it’s only the middle class that suffer. In this case it’s getting them right in the pocket books so they might actually pay attention for a change.

The Oilers should be looking for some insurance for Khabibulin - photo from Jimmy Jeong/Canadian Press

On the first day of NHL free agency last season, Steve Tambellini made his first – and to date only – big free agent signing when he inked Nikolai Khabibulin to a four year $15 million dollar deal. The reaction by many in Edmonton was that a cap hit of $3.75 million for four years for a 36 year old goalie with a history of injury problems was somewhat of a risk. That Khabibulin played only 18 games last season before requiring back surgery did little to make anyone think anything to the contrary.

But as if an 18 game season were not bad enough, things got worse on February 8 when he was arrested in Arizona for driving under the influence. The chargers were later increased to an extreme DUI when his blood alcohol content was found to be over 0.15. In fact his blood alcohol content of 0.164 was more than double the legal limit. Khabibulin will appear in court this morning in relation to this charge, and if found guilty faces a mandatory minimum sentence of 30 days in jail.

Some in Edmonton on message boards and on radio call in shows have suggested that the Oilers could use a conviction in this case to void the Khabibulin contract. In March I attended a lunch with Tambellini where another season ticket holder asked the GM if this was a possibility; Tambellini’s answer was an unequivocal no. While I know that what NHL general managers say often has an expiry date of their next breath (see Burke’s I have no interest in the Toronto GM position comments or Sutter’s denials of a trade involving Phaneuf as recent evidence of this) but I have a tough time believing that this is a road the Oilers would want to travel.

If they did try to void Khabibulin’s contract they would certainly meet opposition from the NHLPA who would without a doubt file a grievance with the league. Even if the Oilers were successful in getting the contract voided the likely downside would be that more than a few NHL free agents would see Edmonton as an even less desirable location than they do now. And if their efforts failed they’d be stuck with him for another three years, wouldn’t that be fun. As far as I’m concerned trying to use a potential DUI conviction to get out of the Khabibulin deal is a lose-lose situation for the Oilers.

But even though I think Khabibulin is going to be an Oiler this year (and for two more after this), I also think the Oilers need to plan for life without him because he could be in jail when the season starts, although that seems unlikely, and because his back problems could recur. In fact mc79hockey reported on Monday that Khabibulin’s rehab might not be quite on schedule right now; this was of course not the way Tambellini sees it. After watching the Devan Dubnyk-Jeff Deslauriers show last season I can’t imagine anyone in the organization would be too excited to see that combination take the reigns again for an extended period of time should Khabibulin not be available. So regardless of the reason, I think the Oilers need to be in the market for a cheap veteran backup.

Before the free agent period started Behind The Net looked at the free agent goalies available this year. To say the least, that list isn’t loaded with cheap options and the signings of Martin Biron, Chris Mason, Dan Ellis, and Alex Auld thins out the group even more. For this reason, Mr. DeBakey provided a list of AHL goalies ranked by save percentage over the past two years at The Copper & Blue yesterday. While I may not be thrilled about bringing in another AHL netminder, the Oilers might be able to find a better option than Deslauriers there (I think Dubnyk is the better of the two options now and will be the backup to start the year) and could result in an extra win or two maybe but I don’t know if that’s really what the team needs.

If there aren’t options in the NHL or AHL then what about Europe? There aren’t many options across the ocean right now but one that might be a potential fit for the Oilers would be Martin Gerber. After his performance Jonathon Willis looked at the idea of Gerber returning to the NHL. It’s an interesting idea and one I think the Oilers should look into because Gerber really fits the mould of what the Oilers need – he’s got NHL experience (226 games), he’d be cheap (probably $1 million at most), and he’d probably be willing to sign a one year deal. As far as I’m concerned that’s the trifecta the Oilers should be looking for. Gerber isn’t likely to be this years Craig Anderson but he’d be a better backup option for the Oilers if they had to play a large portion of the season without Khabibulin and at a $1 million I see more upside than downside to bringing him on board.

*****Update*****

The Edmonton Journal is reporting that Khabibulin’s trial date has been postponed until August. The date isn’t known yet but the mandatory minimum of 30 days in jail could certainly impact training camp now, probably not a good thing for a goalie who hasn’t played since November.

The day got of to a rather surprising start when the Blue Jackets claimed Moreau off waivers. Moreau has been a warrior for the Oilers, but much like Steve Staios who was traded to Calgary at the deadline, it was time for him to move on. Moreau struggled in the years after he was named the Oilers captain, both on the ice taking stupid untimely penalties and with injuries; at 34 years old I’m not sure that he’s got much left in him. I could be wrong, it’s possible that the change of scenery and getting placed on waivers will motivate him and allow him to regains some of his previous form but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. As far as I’m concerned this is a weird choice. Regardless, the Blue Jackets decision to take a chance on Moreau will save the Oilers $833k against the cap this year and another $533 in 2011/12.

Shortly after the Moreau news broke the Oilers swung a deal with the Coyotes swapping O’Sullivan for Jim Vandermeer. Vandermeer is set to make $2.3M this season (his cap hit is also $2.3) which is probably more than he’s worth but if you consider that the O’Sullivan buyout would have cost $935k this season, the case can easily be made that Vandermeer’s hit is really only around $1.4M, a far more reasonable salary. This will also save the Oilers another $400k against the cap in 2011/12. In addition to the cap implications the addition of Vandermeer to the Oilers roster will give the club some extra toughness on the backend, something they’re in need of after moving Staios and the imminent Souray trade. Vandermeer doesn’t bring a thing in terms of offence but he should provide some much needed size and grit in a 4/5 role among the Oilers blue liners.

With Moreau and O’Sullivan off the books that left the Oilers with only Nilsson’s contract to buyout. Because of how Nilsson’s contract is structured the Oilers will actually get a credit of $83k against the cap this year; the following year the buyout will result in a cap hit of $417k.

So just like that the Oilers got rid of three contract they didn’t want and added something they needed on their back end, all at minimal cost. Although the team still needs to get Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, and Gilbert Brule under contract, a team that was considered by many to have serious cap issues just a few months ago all of a sudden has over $19M of cap space. And the Souray trade could easily create even more cap space. Most NHL fans look forward to July 1 but for Oiler fans June 30 may prove to be an even more important day.

If you’re an Oiler fan you probably already know how ironic it is that he’ll be sentenced on that day. If you’re not an Oiler fan I’ll bring you up to speed. You see August 9 will be the twenty second anniversary of the sale of Wayne Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings; a day that will never be forgotten, or truly forgiven, here in Edmonton.

I was nine years old when the “trade” happened and I still remember exactly where I was and who told me. I thought it was a joke. Gretzky was the greatest player on the planet, why would he ever be traded? I was nine and I didn’t know that hockey wasn’t a sport, it was a business. In the last twenty two years I’ve manage to, for the most part, come to grips with what Pocklington did. The Oilers winning another Stanley Cup in 1990 certainly helped ease the pain, the twenty winless years since then not as much.

According to the story on TSN Pocklington faces a maximum sentence of five years in jail but probation is a possibility. A maximum of five years and a chance at probabtion after what he did? I hope that the judge factors in what Pocklington did to Oiler fans as part of his sentence, maybe even gives him some extra jail time as a result. The nine year old inside of me thinks he deserves it.

Hall with his second Memorial Cup MVP trophy

While most of the hockey world has spent the last week watching the NHL Conference Championships, Edmonton fans instead were watching two other tournaments much more closely – the IIHF World Championships and the Memorial Cup.

The World Championships were a disappointment for both Canadian and American hockey fans as the countries that battled for gold in Vancouver just 3 months ago could do no better than 7th and 13th place respectivly. But Oiler fans weren’t nearly as interested in the fate of the Canadian team as they were in how Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson and Jordan Eberle would preform. I can’t say that either disappointed.

Pääjärvi-Svensson ended the tournament in third among scorers with 5 goals and 4 assists and was named to the tournaments all-star team – not too bad for a nineteen year old. And Eberle had the amazing four point performance against Norway that gave Oiler fans goosebumps about what could be. He didn’t get another point after that sparkling debut but his team only managed 5 more goals in losses to Sweden, the Czech Republic, and Russia so it’s not as if he was the only player not putting up big numbers for Canada.

And then there was the Memorial Cup, which for Oiler fans was one last chance to see Taylor Hall play before the NHL draft. Since well before the draft lottery fans in Edmonton have debated Hall and Seguin. Central Scouting has Seguin ranked ahead of Hall in their final rankings and the CHL named Seguin Top Prospect. The two tied for the OHL scoring title. With Hall leading the way, the Windsor Spitfires swept Seguin and the Plymouth Whalers in the second round of the OHL playoffs. At every turn there has been another item to discuss in the debate which could easily be one of the biggest in the Oilers franchise history.

But based on what I saw from Mr. Hall over the last week at the Memorial Cup I’m not so sure that the Oilers decision is all that difficult after all. Hall’s play in the Memorial Cup was simply amazing. En route to Windsor’s second straight Memorial Cup title, Hall scored 5 goals and added another 4 assists to lead the tournament in scoring. But he doesn’t just score goals, he scores highlight reel goals; there is this one from the opening game of the tournament or this one from the final.

Goals aside though, this is a guy who plays big in big games. Already in his career he’s won gold for Canada at the 2008 Under 18 World Championships and silver at the 2010 World Juniors. He’s won two Memorial Cups and was named MVP both times, something nobody else has ever done. The guy is battled tested in high pressure situations and hasn’t shown any cracks. It’s hard not to like a player like that. To date Hall has done far more in his career than Seguin has. Not to say that Seguin can’t do these same things given the opportunity but the simple fact is that at this point he hasn’t. For me that is a big plus for Hall.

Fans in Edmonton looking for a negative in Hall’s game point to the number of big hits that he takes and that he likes to skate with his head down at times. Hall and Lindros are being mentioned in the same sentence a lot these days. This is a concern for me too. The Oilers best today is Ales Hemsky. Hemsky is willing to hold on to the puck to make plays, something that has lead to injuries over the last few seasons that have cost him a lot games. But I think that his game can evolve.

More often than not players at the top of their draft class have a bad habit or two that aren’t a big deal in junior hockey because they’re simply that much better than their competition; in the NHL that isn’t the case. Why can’t Hall change his game too? I don’t see Hall’s propensity for taking hits and skating with his head down as deal breakers. Look at the hit he took against the Wheat Kings in the tournament opener as an example. He took the big hit but he came back and scored the beautiful goal I mentioned earlier. I think he’ll be just fine in the NHL.

The Oilers ultimately have to make the final decision when it comes to Taylor or Tyler. They may choose to go with Seguin over Hall because they believe he will be the better player in the long run. But what Hall did last week in Brandon had to at least make the Oilers brass doubt that decision just a little bit. If not then I don’t think they were watching the same games I was.

There is a 48.2% chance that the Oilers pick first. It’s basically a coin toss. It seems like a lot to put on a coin toss – the chance to secure a cornerstone of a rebuilding team – but that is the system we have. And to be fair the lottery is a lot more exciting than reversing the standings. If the Oilers don’t win I reserve the right to change my mind on the lottery though.

Regardless of whether the Oilers pick first or second this will be the highest (assuming they don’t trade the pick, a move that would likely lead to rioting in Edmonton) that the club has ever selected. In the mid 90s the Oilers selected in the top 10 for four years in a row, and twice in 1994, but never selected higher than 4^th overall.

Unfortunately for those Oiler teams the players selected with those high picks didn’t always pan out. In 1993 the Oilers took Arnott with the 7^th pick and added Smyth the next year with the 6^th pick, both solid selections for sure. But they also took Jason Bonsignore (4^th in 1994), Steve Kelly (6^th in 1995), and Boyd Devereaux (6^th in 1996) with some of those top end picks, not exactly household names.

But the Oilers past draft failures, and there are many more beyond these three example, are in the past. More recently the result for the Oilers on draft day has been far better. Hemsky, Gagner, Cogliano, and Eberle are four of the Oilers better first round picks of the last decade. It is this recent success that gives me faith that if the Oilers win the lottery that will pick the better of Hall and Seguin.

Not that either Taylor or Tyler is likely to be a flop. In fact both look like they’re going to have long and very successful NHL careers. But then again don’t all 1^st overall selections have that same future outlook?

It’s because of that uncertainty that there are more than a few people in Edmonton who’d like to see the team pick 2^nd just so that they can’t really be wrong. I’m not of those people. As far as I’m concerned you always want to steer your own ship and you don’t get to do that when you pick at number 2.

It’s nothing more than a coin toss but I’m excited all the same. The future of my favourite team might just hang in the balance.

Back in September I thought that the best that could be hoped for this season would be the Oilers finishing this campaign somewhere between 7^th and 10^th in the Western Conference. I don’t think anyone expected a last place overall finish – I know I didn’t.

At times the games were painful to watch. Other times the games were just sad. There were bright spots – Dustin Penner comes to mind – but all in all the season was bad. But just how bad was it? Lets looks at the numbers.

With a final record of record of 27-47-8 the 62 points that the Oilers racked up this year is the second lowest total in franchise history and only twice before have the Oilers recorded fewer wins.

The Oilers were one of the worst teams in the NHL offensively this season scoring only 214 goals, the third fewest in franchise history. But it wasn’t just putting the puck in the net that was a problem, keeping it out was a challenge as well.

During the high scoring 1980s the Oilers regularly gave up more goals than the 284 that were surrendered this season. The difference of course back then was that the Oilers could outscore everyone else which clearly was not the case this season. This season their goal differential was a stunning -70. Not the worst in franchise history but close.

But if the overall numbers are bad, the road numbers are even worse. With just 9 road wins this season the Oilers recorded the second fewest road wins in franchise history and their 0.268 winning percentage was the lowest the team has ever recorded.  To prove that the hockey gods have a sense of humour though the Oilers also set a franchise record for consecutive wins on a road trip this season with 5. You’ve got to love the irony.

Nowhere though are the numbers more amazing than the injury totals. The total number of man games lost to injury was 530; a total that dwarfs the Oilers previous record of 346. To put the injury total into perspective, if a team had 6 players sit out the entire season that would only total 492 games. So the Oilers averaged almost 6.5 injured players for every game this year. The injuries might not be an excuse but they certainly are a factor.

So the short answer to “How bad was it?” is very bad. But the season is over now and it’s time to start looking forward so the only number that really matters anymore in 48.2. That would be the percentage that the Oilers retain the first overall pick and get to choose between Taylor and Tyler. It would be nice if so many bad numbers could add up to number 1.

Denis Grebeshkov will no longer be wearing copper and blue

After 61 games and with the Oilers firmly entrenched in last place overall, Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini has finally decided to do something; he has moved Denis Grebeshkov to the Nashville Predators for a second round pick in this years draft. Not a big move by any means but for Oiler fans who were starting to feel as if Tambellini’s reign as GM would be nothing more than one loss after another with no signs from the man in charge that anything would ever change, at least this proves that Tambellini is still alive.

Making trades in the NHL, especially the salary cap era NHL, isn’t as easy as simply picking up the phone but when your team has a 0.361 winning percentage at the three quarter point of the season you’d have thought that something, anything, would have happened by now. Placing a player on waivers, making a waiver claim, an inconsequential trade of fourth liners, something to give fans the impression that the GM is trying to improve his club. Although this is a move that doesn’t make the club immediately better it is a good move for the club.

Firstly the move adds a draft pick for the Oilers this summer as the clubs rebuild truly begins. With the Predators sitting twelfth right now in the NHL standing that pick could easily be one of the first 50 selections at this years draft. That isn’t bad return for the leagues worst plus/minus defenceman. Beyond the draft pick, and possibly more importantly, the move also clears cap space for the Oilers next season. As a restricted free agent Grebeshkov would have cost the Oilers a minimum of $3.15 million next season assuming that they had decided to qualify him and not allow him to become a free agent. So even through he isn’t signed past this season this move can been seen as clearing more than $3 million in cap space for a team with serious cap space problems looming.

Grebeshkov has skills that make him valuable – he is a good puck mover, a good skater, and is talented offensively – but his inconsistent play over his two plus season here in Edmonton would have made it hard to justify keeping him at a cost of more that $3 million. For all the good things Grebeshkov does he isn’t a physical defenceman (he doesn’t shy away from contact but almost never initiates it), he doesn’t shoot frequently enough, and worst of all can be a defensive nightmare at times. Nightmare might seem harsh but he makes plays that make you bury your face in your hands with amazing regularity. On top of that his skill set is very similar to what Tom Gilbert brings to the table and although Gilbert comes with a cap hit of almost $1 million more per season, Gilbert is a better player in almost every way.

What Oiler fans might want to brace themselves for is the possibility of Grebeshkov blossoming somewhat with the Predators. If he happens to be paired with either Weber or Suter the result would likely be a boost in offensive production and his defensive play will seem less terrible based simply on the skill level of his partner. Both Weber and Suter are on the verge, and perhaps already are based on what I saw during the Olympics, of becoming two of the NHL elite defenders and anyone who plays with them will look better simply because they’re on the ice with him. If that is the case for Grebeshkov then good for him but that won’t change the fact that those same results wouldn’t have happened with the Oilers.

In a weird schedule quirk Grebeshkov will suit up for his new team tomorrow night against his old team. Maybe Predator fans will get their first glimpse of his defensive downside, more likely he’ll score three points and help the Predators hand the Oilers yet another loss in a season that seems as if it might never end.

Deslauriers was a busy guy last night for the Oilers - Photo from John Lucas / Canwest News Service

Last night Chicago doubled up on the Oilers 4-2 and as a result now have double the points of the Oilers in the standings too. The game was in no way as close as the final score would indicate. The description used over at The Copper & Blue of men versus boys is about as an accurate a description as any I can think of.

Things got off to a rocky start when the first shot of the game got past Deslauriers. Granted Toews is a pretty damn good hockey player but a wrist shot from the bottom of the circle simply shouldn’t get past an NHL netminder it as simple as that.

It hard to say whether the Oilers came out flat or whether the early goal – Toews scored 44 seconds in – sucked away any life they might have had. Regardless of the reason the Oilers were awful in the first period and only marginally better in the second period when then gave up three more goals.

The Hawks first score of the second period came off the stick of Brouwer but it was the result of a great play by Kane. Kane skated around the ice as if he owned Rexall Place all to himself before making a pass to Brouwer for the shot. If you watch the replay you can actually tell that all six Oilers on the ice are staring at Kane just before he passes the puck – they look like six year olds out there.

The other two Hawk goals in the second period were a Byfuglien tip-in of a Keith point shot and a Hossa powerplay goal that came off a scramble in front of the net that resulted in a loose puck and an open net, not the kind of opportunity a player like Hossa doesn’t convert on very often.

With time running out in the second period the Oilers finally got on the board. The puck was bouncing all over the place eventually making its way to the front of the Chicago net where Moreau jammed the puck under Huet. Somehow the puck came out the other side and Pisani was standing there to slap it in. The puck would have gone in without Pisani’s help but he’s had a tough season so I think he deserves the goal. He certainly deserves it more that Moreau.

Potulny pulled the Oilers to within two when he beat Huet high to the blocker side just past the five minute mark of the third period. The Potulny goal started with a Hjalmarsson turning the puck over deep in Chicago’s end. O’Sullivan picked up the turnover and moved it out to Potulny. Not a highlight reel goal but at this point I’ll take anything.

That was it for the Oilers though. They did have a couple of more chances before the final buzzer went but I don’t think anyone in the building harbored any thoughts that the games final result was in jeopardy.

The third period was the Oilers best of the night but that had more to do with the Hawks taking their foot off the gas more that anything that the Oilers did. As a fan I want to win every game but I understand that no team wins them all so on any given night I will always walk away with a smile on my face if the home team at least plays hard and the game has some entertainment value. The Oilers previous two home games – losses to the Canucks and Stars – were games like that, last night was not.

A scene Oiler fans might see a lot of tonight - Photo from UPI/Brian Kersey

No matter how bad a team is sooner or later they’re going to win a game. Maybe they’ll get a lucky bounce, or maybe the refs will make a debatable call that leads to a powerplay, or maybe the game will be stolen by a hot goaltender. Even though any of those things could happen there is really no way that the Oilers win tonight against the Hawks. The Hawks are not just a better team than the Oilers they’re in a different league than the Oilers. As Al Cimaglia said in his post today “the lowly Oilers trail the Blackhawks in the standings by a total of 40 points”.

I would hope that the Hawks are the model that the Oilers are looking to as they plan their rebuild. Since the lockout the Hawks have steadily grown their point total every season and have become one of the elite teams in the NHL. There is hope in here in Oil Country that a successful rebuild will vault the Oilers back into the NHLs elite like it has for the Blackhawks (hopefully that happens sooner than later) but for today tat least fans should just hope that the Oilers don’t get embarrassed tonight.

Over the last two seasons the Hawks are 5-0-1 against the Oilers having outscored the Oilers 28-12 in those games. The Hawks play a fast puck control game that equals death for the Oilers defense. Every line they send out just keeps coming and the Oilers have proven unable to hold their own against that attack.

Faced with the task of trying to stop the Hawks high powered offense tonight will be Deslauriers who returns to the net after watching Dubnyk start the Oilers last two games. Deslauriers last start was in Colorado eight days a go, a game that the Oilers lost 6-0. Deslauriers wasn’t great that night but I’d say that was the Oilers worst performance of the season.

The two games since then – an overtime loss to the Canucks and a last minute loss to the Stars – have by comparison been the Oilers best games in over a month. But even with back-to-back good performances under their belts the Oilers have just too many holes in their lineup to compete with a team as skilled as the Hawks.

A look at the numbers

Although the Blackhawks looked less than stellar against the Canucks in their last game this isn’t a team that gets on many losing streaks. Only four times this season have the Hawks failed to record a win in back-to-back games. And with losses in two of their last three I’d be willing to bet that they’re looking at tonight as a good night to right the ship.

If the Oilers plan to keep this game even remotely close they will need to stay out of the penalty box. On the road this season Chicago has the leagues fourth best powerplay converting on 25.9% of their chances. On the other side of the ice the Oilers have one of the leagues worst penalty kills. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how this matchup could shape up.

On the injury front

With exception of the switch between the pipes the Oilers will be icing the exact same line up that they did on Friday night. That means no Brule, Stone, or Comrie up front and no Staios or Smid on the blue line. Comrie was able to participate in the Oilers skills competition on the weekend but is still not quite in game shape yet.

Prediction

If the Hawks and Oilers were close to even as teams then the loss of two defensemen from the Oilers lineup would have to tilt this game towards Chicago. Of course these two teams aren’t close so that loss make an already lopsided game just a little more lopsided. I’m going to say Hawks 5 – Oilers 1 and I’ll keep my fingers crossed that it’s even that close.

Seguin and Hall, one of them could be an Oiler in about five months

Well the Oilers have finally made it all the way to the basement of the NHL. With a 5-1 win on Sunday over the Bruins, the Hurricanes blew past the Oilers and into 29^th place overall. It’s been tough work for the Oilers to make it to the cellar – they needed to put up a 1-15-2 record over the past 45 days – but the team kept at it and was eventually rewarded. Don’t ever say that hard work doesn’t pay off.

As the Oilers have fallen further and further down the standings more and more talk in Edmonton has centred on all things draft related. Fans here are excited really about what the first overall pick could do for the future of the Oilers because excluding a magical two month run in the spring of 2006 it’s been pretty bleak here for a very long time.

In the last 10 seasons (technically 11 years because of the lockout) the Oilers have qualified for the post season just four times and never finished higher than 6^th in the Western Conference. In those four post season trips they have a combined 20 wins; 15 of which came during the 2006 Stanley Cup run. Like I said it’s been a little bleak.

As bad as the Oilers have been though they’ve never been this bad before. Unless something very surprising happens over the next couple of months it looks like the Oilers are going to be at, or near, the bottom of the NHL standings when the final buzzer goes on the 2009/10 season. If they do in fact land in the bottom three that would mean they’d have the opportunity to draft one of Hall, Seguin, or Fowler – the consensus top three picks from those who scout and report on these kinds of things.

If the opinions of those who call into radio shows represent the views of the majority then it is widely believed in Edmonton that the key to future success lies with a finishing last this year and getting to go to the podium first at the 2010 Draft in Los Angeles.

Unfortunately for Oiler fans getting that first overall pick is easier said than done. Starting in 1995 the NHL has used a lottery to determine the team that gets to chose first overall. Every team that misses the post season is placed into a draw and one team is selected. How many times your name is in that draw depends of course on you spot in the final standings. The 30^th place team for example has a 25% chance of being drawn, 17^th place has a 0.5% chance.

But it’s not a true lottery in that the team selected can only move up five spots in the draft order. So if that team with the 0.5% chance of being selected was the name drawn out of the barrel they’d only move up to the 10^th pick not the 1^st pick. Better than a kick in the ass with a frozen boot but not quite as good as getting the top pick. In the 14 draft lotteries that have been held this has happened two times – Los Angeles in 1995 moved up from 7^th to 3^rd and Chicago in 1999 moved up from the 8^th pick to the 3^rd.

It’s because a team can only move up five spots in the draft order that the team finishing 30^th actually has a 48.2% chance of selecting overall even though they only have a 25% chance of being the team selected in the lottery. For a league that has some three point games and some two point games a system like this seems just about perfect in my opinion.

Regardless of the odds nobody can argue that it’s desirable for a team looking to grab the first draft pick to finish in 30^th place. Unfortunately being bad isn’t good enough you also have to be lucky.

Even if the Oilers do get lucky enough to select first it’s also important to realize that Hall and Seguin are just potentially great players; they are not generational talents. That is by no means meant to be a slight on either of them. By all accounts they’re very good hockey players who have the talent to be great NHL players for a very long time. But they are not another Crosby, Ovechkin, Lemiuex, or Gretzky and the expectations fans place on them should reflect that.

It also needs to be pointed out that selecting first doesn’t guarantee future success. If that was the case then the Senators would have been the NHLs most dominant team over the last 15 years since they had the first selection three times in four years starting in 1993. In fact over the last 20 years only three players selected first have even won a Stanley Cup – Crosby, Fleury, and Lecavalier. And if you go all the way back to the beginning of the draft in 1963 you’ll find only five players selected first who went on to have Hall of Fame careers. So while getting that first overall pick could be a defining moment for an organization it more often than not is anything but.

I want the Oilers to pick first because I want them to control their own destiny as they begin to rebuild this team. But whoever they choose – I think it’d be Hall if it is in fact their choice – that selection will be one of the first pieces of a much larger puzzle as the Oilers work their way back to respectability. Plenty of other pieces will still be needed.

Dubnyk tries to make the save on Neal's game winner - Photo from John Ulan/The Canadian Press

Just like Wednesday night Oiler fans at Rexall Place last night thought that the home team might just pull out a win and end their losing streak, but it just wasn’t meant to be and the streak continues – the Oilers have now lost 10 straight games. By going winless in 10 the Oilers are now starting to creep into franchise record territory.

Despite the result last night the team did play really good hockey. The Oilers fell behind early on a point shot from Daley. It wasn’t an overpowering shot by any means, Dubnyk would probably like to have that one back.

Shortly after the first Dallas goal both Pisani and Horcoff were flagged for penalties at the same time resulting in a two minute long two man advantage for the visitors. The Oilers have the 29th ranked penalty kill in the NHL and with two of the teams better penalty killers in the box it seemed like a lock that Dallas would stretch their lead to two.

The Oilers came up big and killed off the two man advantage and then killed a stupid holding penalty by Gagner shortly after. It was another stupid penalty – this time a slash to the shin pads of a Dallas player by O’Sullivan – that proved to be too much for the Oiler penalty killers. Modano gets credit for the goal but Strudwick was the guy who deflected it in. It was a nice tip just too bad it was at the wrong end of the ice.

The shots at this point in the game were 14-2 in favour of the visitors and so far it looked as if the ice must be sloped towards the Edmonton end of the rink. But the Oilers battled back scoring a powerplay goal of their own from Potulny to cut the Dallas lead to a goal. After the Modano goal the Oilers really came on, outshooting the Stars 9-4 over the last seven and half minutes of the period.

Dallas restored the two goal lead in the second period on a goal from Benn. Coming out of the Oilers zone Chorney got caught between a pinching and falling back. That hesitation resulted in a two on one and Strudwick just could breakup the pass allowing Benn to score a pretty easy goal.

With time running out in the second, and just a few seconds after Visnovsky missed a wide open net Gagner scored on a beautiful pass from Gilbert. The play started with Penner who moved to the middle of the ice and then made a drop pass to Gilbert. Penner’s play opened up a ton of ice for Gilbert who was able to spot Gagner on the other side of the ice. Gagner didn’t waste the chance and ripped a one timer past Turco to again cut the Dallas lead to one.

Buoyed by the late goal from Gagner the Oilers took control of the game in the third period. They controlled the play and kept Dallas pinned in their end for what seemed like most of the period. But they just couldn’t get the puck past Turco. With the goalie pulled the Oilers finally were able to beat Turco but even then needed a lucky bounce to make it happen. Modano tried to control a rebound off a Gagner shot and accidentally kicked it into his own net.

Considering the period that the Oilers had played and the way things have been going for them over the last month it seemed fitting that they’d finally catch a break like that. It wasn’t meant to be though. Although the Oilers had tied the game up with just 1:09 left in the game they still couldn’t even get this one to overtime.

With a couple of veterans forwards on the ice – Horcoff and Moreau – the Oilers turned the puck over at the blue line. Strudwick was able to breakup the cross ice pass this time but lost his balance and played the puck back into the slot where Neal was waiting to slap it home. And just like that it was another heartbreaker for the Oilers. Hopefully the Oilers can draw something positive from a second consecutive good effort. If they keep playing games like that the streak will have to end soon.

Dubnyk looked good between the pipes for the Oilers again last night. The first goal was on the soft side but after that he was very solid and made a couple of really big saves that kept the Oilers in it and gave the the chance to tie the game up. Even though he still wasn’t able to nail down that first win he should be happy with how he played. Based on what I’ve seen over the past couple of weeks the Oilers should be giving him the lion’s share of the work for the next while.

The Oilers now have a few days off before hosting Chicago on Tuesday night. The Hawks have dominated the Oilers over the last couple of seasons so ending the losing streak that night will be a real challenge, stranger things have happened though.

The Oilers look for another win over Dallas tonight - Photo from AP Photo/Ralph Lauer

When the NHL introduced the shootout after the lockout it marked the beginning of a new era in the NHL, an era where there would always be a winner. That means that either the Oilers or Stars will put the brakes on their losing streak tonight. For the other, the futility will continue.

Even though they played their best game of 2010 – that isn’t saying much – the Oilers still couldn’t win against the Canucks on Wednesday night. That loss pushed their streak of winless games to nine. While the Stars don’t have an overall losing streak that rivals the Oilers they have dropped their last 10 games on the road.

This will be the third meeting of the season between the two clubs. The Oilers won both of the games this season – one at home and one in Dallas- in a shootout. With a win tonight the Oilers will secure a win in the season series. The last time the Oilers won the season series against this franchise was in the 92/93 season, the last season of the Minnesota North Stars.

With the NHLs skewed system of win and losses thanks to the loser point, technically the cased could be made that the Oilers won the season series against the Stars in 03/04 with a 2-0-2 record. I fail to see how two wins and two losses can work out to a winning record but that argument is better left for another day.

Not only was Wednesday’s game the Oilers best effort of the calendar year it was also Dubnyk’s best game of his young career. He played so well that Quinn has decided to go back to him tonight where he’ll be looking for that elusive first win in the NHL; this will be his sixth career start, his record is 0-4-1 so far.

Looking at the numbers

A big reason why the Stars are outside of the playoffs right now is that they give up too many goals. Out of the 15 teams in the Western Conference they surrender the thirteenth most goals against per game with 3.08 – only the Blue Jackets (3.17) and the Oilers (3.35) allow more goals against per game.

This season a team has traveled to Edmonton after having played the night before a total of seven times. Those teams are 6-1 in their second game in as many nights. You’d think that the combination of playing two games in a row on the road would be an advantage for the Oilers but somehow that isn’t the case. Just a reminder, Dallas played in Vancouver last night.

On the injury front

For the third time this week Brule, Staios, and Stone will not be in the lineup tonight. Joining them will be Smid who is suffering from what sounds like a concussion although there is no official word from the team to confirm that. Replacing Smid in the lineup will be Chorney who was recalled from Springfield yesterday. In 13 games this season Chorney has one assist and six penalty minutes.

Prediction

This is a tough one tonight for sure. I think the Stars are bad enough on the road for the Oilers to win this game but three wins in a year against Dallas seems pretty unlikely too. When things are even I take the home team, I think the Oilers will build off Wednesday’s performance and will come out with a 4-2 win.

Henrik and Daniel = Oiler Killers

If the Oilers could have just killed a penalty last night they probably would have won the game. They played a solid game but the Canucks converted three times on four powerplays to win the game 3-2. The Oilers can at least take some solace in the fact that they were able to register a point.

The Oilers grabbed the lead in the first period on a goal by Gagner. Vancouver made a brutal line change and Grebeshkov moved the puck up quickly to Gagner. Coming down the right side Gagner’s wrist shot hit the top corner on Luongo’s glove side. It was a nice goal but from where Gagner shot the puck I though that Luongo should have stopped that one.

During that first period I thought that Luongo looked pretty shaky. He should have had the Gagner goal, the Oilers hit a post, and there were plenty of scrambles around his net. The Oilers had chances to really grab a hold of the game early but just couldn’t seem to take advantage of Luongo not being on top of his game.

The Canucks scored their first powerplay marker later in the first period. The Sedins are Oiler killers and this goal was a perfect example of what they always do against Edmonton. Daniel moves the puck across the ice to Henrik that gets the Oilers moving one way; then Henrik moves it back right away to the man in the slot – in this case Burrows -for a tap in. It seems like I’ve seen it a million times before.

Early in the second period the Oilers were able to restore that one goal lead. With some good work from the fourth line on the faceoff Stortini was able to get the puck back to Souray on the point whose blast went through a maze of bodies to beat Luongo.

The Oilers took that slim one goal lead into the third period, they even held onto it for most of the period. Fans were actually starting to think that a win might be possible. But then the Oilers took a penalty and then they took another one. As time ran out on the two man advantage Salo’s shot from the point beat Dubnyk to the glove side. Assists on the goal go to the Sedins. I told you Oiler killers.

The Oilers were able to push this one to an extra frame but then the penalty kill reared its ugly head yet again. The penalty was a bit of a mystery to me but even more mysterious is why exactly Strudwick was on the ice. A 4-on-3 is almost impossible to kill but with your sixth defenseman on the ice it gets even harder.

The 4-on-3 didn’t even last a minute. The Canucks made a couple of quick passes to get the Oilers moving and then the Sedin to Sedin play that makes Strudwick look like a pylon and the game was over. Who didn’t see that coming? The final tally last night was seven points combined for the Sedins and Burrows. I predicted 10 so I guess it could have been worse.

If there is a guy I really feel for last night is Dubnyk. The guy is still searching for that first win and played a game last night that easily could have gotten it for him. But the Oilers just couldn’t kill off penalties and the offense wasn’t there to bail them out. I wouldn’t be shocked if Quinn went back to him on Friday against the Stars. Maybe he’ll finally get that win then.

A couple of other Oilers played solid games last night too. I thought Gagner, Cogliano, and O’Sullivan really played well last night. O’Sullivan registered six shots and was the only Oiler forward to play more than 20 minutes last night. Over the last couple of weeks he’s started to look like what Oiler fans had hoped for going into this season. The way he’s been playing will not only make him more tradable but should also help the Oilers get just a little more in return. For a team looking forward that is a good thing.

My gut tells me that the building will be at best 50% Oiler fans tonight. Whenever the Canucks come to town their fans come out in full force. That the Oilers have lost 15 of their last 16 games should make tickets for Vancouver fans even easier to come by.

The Canucks aren’t my least favorite team in the league but they’re close – it goes Calgary, Toronto, and then Vancouver if you were wondering – and listening to all those Canuck fans yell Luooooo when the man stops a dump in from the far blue line just makes me dislike them a little bit more each time. The guy is a good goalie. Hell you know what, he’s great but it was a dump in you meat head. Get a little perspective.

Unlike the Oilers, the Canucks have been playing some good hockey of late. The Canucks are 6-2-2 in their last 10 games. By comparison to find six Oilers wins you have to go back 21 games. Yeah the Canucks are playing a little bit better hockey these days.

Burrows and Henrik Sedin have been the guys leading the way of late for Vancouver. I’ve never been a big fan of either of the Sweish twins and I like Burrows less than I do the Canuck fans I mentioned earlier. That means that tonight the three of them will probably combine for 10 points. And to make things worse Luongo will probably stop a whole lot of dump ins. I can’t wait.

Looking at the numbers

The Oilers loss on Monday was their most lopsided of the season. The six goal defeat bettered their previous worst outing – a 7-2 loss to the Blues – by a single goal. Way to strive for excellence boys. It was also the fourth time this season that the Oilers have been shutout. Luongo blanked the Oilers back on October 25 in Vancouver.

Against the Northwest Division this season Vancouver has a 10-5-1 record that includes three wins in four tries against the Oilers. The good news for Oiler fans is that the lone win they have against Vancouver came on home ice. Maybe lightning will strike twice.

On the injury front

It looks as if Stone (knee), Brule (sick), and Staios (sick/head) will all be out of the lineup for tonights game. As was reported today on Oilers Nation Comrie was at practice this morning for the first time in I don’t even know how long. Mono seems like an odd thing to get you’re 29 but I’m not a doctor so maybe I don’t know anything.

Prediction

Quinn has decided to start Dubnyk tonight rather than Deslauriers who has struggled against Vancouver this season – a 4.26 GAA in three starts this season. Dubnyk is still looking for his first career win and the Oilers should be motivated after yesterdays bag skate so things could be pointing to an Oilers win. They could be but they’re not, the Oilers will lose 5-2. The over/under tonight on beers consumed so I can tolerate Canuck fans is 3.5, I’d take the over.

The Oilers actually have a winning record against the Avalanche this season. They’ve won one of two games in Edmonton and have taken the only game the two teams have played so far in Colorado. How the Oilers have a winning record against anyone is truly shocking. When you’ve got on 16 wins in 47 tries it’s difficult to have a winning record.

Deslauriers will be back in net for the Oilers tonight. He last saw action when the Oilers lost to the Predators last Tuesday. That night he allowed four goals on 14 shots. Dubnyk played the last half of that game and also started the next two, losses to the Penguins and Sharks. Deslauriers hasn’t looked even close to being a number one goalie over the last month and on too many occasions hasn’t even looked like a reliable back up netminder. Maybe he was tired and with a week off he will at least look passable. I don’t really see how he could look any worse.

Looking at the numbers

The Oilers powerplay has been on fire of late. Over the last three games the powerplay is 4-for-8. ON a team where very little has gone right lately the powerplay has been a bright spot. The Avalanche penalty kill is 17th overall in the NHL but on home ice is just 24th. The powerplay might be an area the Oilers could exploit tonight.

In the I wish I had made that deal category do you think they Oilers wish that they’d gone after Anderson instead of Khabibulin. Anderson is in the top ten in wins, saves, minutes played, and shutouts; Khabibulin has been out with a bad back since mid-November and could miss the rest of the year. Oh yeah one more thing. Anderson’s $1.8125 M cap hit is less than half of Khabibulin’s $3.75 M cap hit. Oh to be able to go back in time.

On the injury front

Pouliot will play his first game of the season for the Oilers tonight. He was sidelined with a sports hernia. Pouliot is my least favorite Oiler, although based on his play of late Moreau may soon have that title. For now though it’s Pouliot. As far as I’m concerned he brings next to nothing to the game. He’s had plenty of chances to grab a permanent roster spot but just isn’t effective enough to be a full time NHL player in my opinion.

Pouliot is back but Horcoff, Brule, and Pisani are all now sick with the flu; a couple of them are going to need to play tonight. Stone missed the game on Saturday with a bad knee and Staios is questionable with a head issue, I assume that means concussion.

Prediction

Will the losing end tonight? I’m thinking no. The Avalanche take a close one 4-3. Maybe it’ll go to overtime and we’ll at least get a point.

Photo from Brian J. Gavriloff/Canwest News Service

The Oilers dropped their sixth straight game last night, a 3-2 decision to the Penguins. It was a game that the Oilers could have won, they had a two goal lead going into the third period, but they just couldn’t hold off the Penguins. The played a good game and still managed to lose. In the drive for a high draft pick last nights outcome was the best case scenario.

Things got off to a brutally slow start in the first period with the Oilers managing just four shots on goal in the games first 20 minutes. Somehow that was more than the Penguins registered; they had only 3. Both teams had a couple of chances but the period was mostly forgettable. Near the end of the first period the Potulny drew two penalties at the same time; a hook on Adams and a charge on Malkin. I’ve watched a lot of hockey in my 30 years and I’ve never seen one player draw two penalties at the exact same time.

The Oilers were able to capitalize on that two man advantage early in the second period. Cogliano took the cross ice feed and, after being turned away on his first attempt, beat Fleury up high. Later in the second period the Oilers added to their lead with another powerplay goal. This one was a blast from the point off the stick of Visnovsky. All of a sudden the Oilers powerplay is red hot with four goals on seven chances in the last two games.

But the two goal lead was as good as it would get for the Oilers on this night. Like they did against the Capitals a month ago, the Oilers blew the 2-0 lead in the third period. This season the Oilers have lead after two periods 12 times and have a 9-2-1 record in those games. The only two games where they came away without a point were both on home ice against one of the games best teams. I guess if you’re going to blow a lead you might as well blow it against a good team.

It wasn’t the Penguins stars that the Oilers couldn’t handle though; it was their third line and specifically Staal who recorded the first assist on all three goals. The Penguins first goal came from Kennedy on a shot that beat Dubnyk on the short side. It was a shot that Dubnyk should have had without a doubt.

The second goal came off a rebound on a Staal shot. With Dubnyk was moving to his right, Staal let go of a low wrist shot back to his left and even though Dubnyk made the first save he wasn’t able to get to the rebound which Cooke tucked into the net to tie the game.

The game winner was a typical third line grinder type goal. It started behind the net where Dupuis obliterated Smid forcing a turnover. Staal grabbed the puck and passed it out front to Dupuis who jammed it in. It wasn’t pretty but it was the type of goal that hard working teams score.

The Oilers played a good game but once again found a way to lose. They’ve lost 13 of their last 14 and with San Jose, Vancouver, Chicago, and Calgary still on the schedule for this month the losing will likely continue for a while. But there were positives in this game too. Dubnyk played really well, he did allow one soft goal but he looked far more solid than Desluariers has of late. O’Sullivan had two assists and a couple of good scoring chances; if he keeps playing like that he’d be great trade bait at the deadline. And Cogliano played another excellent game. There are a lot of trade rumours surrounding him, if he does move the Oilers had better get a lot in return.

Up next for the Oilers are the Sharks in afternoon game on Saturday. I see one win 15 games on the horizon.

"Edmonton has a team, really? I didn't know that."

At this point things in Edmonton are about as ugly as they can get. The season is done, the team has three points in their last 13 games, Khabibulin needs back surgery and is likely done for the year, Hemsky was lost for the year six weeks ago, and by the end of the night it’s very possible that the Oilers will be tied for 30^th place with the Hurricanes. So it’s a good thing that the Penguins are coming to town tonight, at least this way there is something for Oiler fans something to be excited about.

There is a chance – I’d say a really good chance – that the Oilers get dismantled by the Penguins tonight. That the Oilers will send out Dubnyk tonight for the third start of his career doesn’t give me much confidence that this one will be close but a win, or even a close game, isn’t what fans are looking forward to tonight. We’re excited because Crosby, Malkin, and the rest of the Stanley Cup Champs will actually play here.

Tonights game will be the 338^th game of Crosby’s career and number 283 for Malkin. So far both have played in Edmonton just once. That’s it, one lousy appearance in Edmonton in their careers so far. Between those two players they’ve won the Calder, the Art Ross twice, the Conn Smythe, the Hart, and the Lester B. Pearson not to mention the Stanley Cup rings they added to their collection in June. All of those awards and just one game played in Edmonton

Thankfully there are plenty of chances to watch the Pens play on television but it isn’t the same. No hockey game will ever be better on television than it is live and seeing some of the worlds very best players live is something that just can’t be beat. I wish that the Oilers had some of the games elite players but for now I’ll have to settle for watching the visiting teams starts instead.

Looking at the numbers

Taking a quick glance at some stats today one jumped off the page at me. The Penguins are 29^th in the NHL on the powerplay. Really??? That one shocked me so much I had to double check that I was looking at the right thing. The Oilers – who have half the offensive firepower of the Pens – on the other hand are 13^th. The Pens are already a pretty high scoring team (tied for 6^th in the NHL in goals per game) so you’d have to figure that if that powerplay gets going at some point this year the Pens will be virtually impossible to beat.

I also found it a little surprising that Malkin has gone 10 games without a goal. The last time he got one past a goalie was before Christmas when he recorded a hat trick against the Senators. One thing that the Oilers do better than any other team is bust slumps. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Malkin get off the schneid tonight in a big way.

On the injury front

Obviously the big news for Oilers fans yesterday was the confirmation that Khabibulin will go under the knife to fix his bad back. Brule will miss his second game in a row with the flu tonight so the Oilers will go with the same roster they used on Tuesday night simply replacing Deslauriers with Dubnyk as the starter.

Armchair GM time

According to Oilers Nation the Ducks are exploring trade options to acquire Moreau. From Oilers Nation:

The Anaheim Ducks have inquired about Ethan Moreau. They have won five straight and are only four points behind the 8th place Kings. The Ducks have room to add Moreau’s salary which today would roughly be an $860,000 cap hit. It isn’t imminent but the Ducks have made some calls.

There are teams out there who will be interested in Moreau if the asking price is reasonable. He’s gritty and experienced. I’ve been very disappointed with his game this year but perhaps a change of scenery will help jump start his game. If the Oilers could get a draft pick in return I’d make the deal.

Prediction

I would love for the Oilers to win tonights game but I don’t think that a win is in the cards. The way I see it the Penguins will roll through Alberta with a pair of wins, tonight’s final will be 5-2.

First some background on the Oilers goaltending situation.

Deslauriers was drafted by the Oilers in 2002 with the 31^st overall pick. He spent two additional years playing for Chicoutimi in the QMJHL before turning pro in 2004. Deslauriers spent two seasons splitting time between the ECHL and AHL before becoming a full time AHL player in 2006; last season he made the jump to the NHL.

Dubnyk’s career follows a very similar path starting two years later. Dubnyk was drafted at 14^th overall out of the WHL and turned pro at 20 in 2006. Dubnyk’s first pro season saw him split time between the ECHL and the AHL. In 2007 he served as Deslauriers’ backup in Springfield. When Deslauriers moved up to the big club last season Dubnyk assumed the starters role.

Those are the Oiler goalies that the club has drafted but there are others that come into play too.

First there is Roloson who joined the club in the weeks before the 2006 trade deadline in a deal with Minnesota. Roloson was a key piece in the Oilers run to the 2006 Stanley Cup Final and was certainly worth the cost of a first round pick – a pick that turned out to be 29^th overall. In the summer of 2006, at the age of 36, he signed a three year deal with the Oilers. This summer he moved his show to Long Island, a team that was willing to give him the two year contract the Oilers wouldn’t.

In 2007 the Oilers added Garon to their goaltending mix as a UFA. The contract he signed was a two year deal. The intention was that Garon would play a backup roll to Roloson. In the 07/08 season he stole the starting job from Roloson only to hand it back to Rolson during the 08/09 season. In early January of last season he was traded to Pittsburgh.

And lastly there is Khabibulin who signed with the Oilers this past offseaon. His deal was worth $15 million. Khabibulin was 36 years old when the deal was signed so the cap hit for this contract will still exist even if Khabibulin retires before the contract expires.

With all the background information in place we can look at Khabibulin’s contract and the Oilers goaltending situation.

The initial problems between the pipes for the Oilers begin in their farm system in 2005. This season marked the first year that the Oilers didn’t have a farm team of their own. That season they split their players between the Canadiens (Hamilton) and Stars (Iowa) AHL teams. The following year to make matter worse they added the Wings (Grand Rapids), Predators (Milwaukee), and Penguins (Wilkes-Barre/Scranton) AHL affiliates to the equation. Finally in 2007 the Oilers removed their heads from their backsides and got an AHL team of their own, the Springfield Falcons.

These two seasons were very costly for the Oilers from a development standpoint as the club had little or no control over how there prospects were used. This is most noticeable with the goalies. No franchise will develop another franchises goalies over their own goaltending prospects. Because the Oilers goalies aren’t playing regularly they’re not developing and the Oilers don’t have an opportunity to fully evaluate whether they’re NHL caliber players or not.

At the beginning of last season Desluariers stayed up with the big club because he would have been subject to waivers had he been sent down and the Oilers didn’t want to risk losing him to another club. Keep in mind that Deslauriers had played just one season for an Oilers franchise at the AHL level, and only 110 games in the AHL total, at this point in his career; that is a pretty limited sample size to determine that he’s a goaltender capable of playing in the NHL.

But let’s say he is. Then why would the team also have Roloson and Garon under contract for the same season. Garon was brought in the year before to backup Roloson. The team had to know (I really hope they knew) that Deslauriers would be subject to waivers beginning in 2008 so wouldn’t the smart move have been to sign a backup goalie to a one year deal and leave the backup role for Deslauriers rather than have three goalies on your roster? Even if you’re not sold on Deslauriers at this point in his career sign a goalie to a one year deal and give yourself some options for the future.

With three goalies on the roster one was relegated to sitting in the press box each night. More often than not that was Deslauriers, not a great way to improve your skills. Thankfully the three goalie system only lasted half a year and Desluariers was able to assume the role of backup goalie that he should have had if the Oilers had made a better decision in the summer of 2007.

But even with Deslauriers in the role of the backup the Oilers couldn’t accomplish much in the way of evaluating his talent. In a desperate attempt to make the playoffs Roloson started every game the Oiler played from the day Garon was traded until the Oilers were officially eliminated from the playoffs in game 80. In total Deslauriers played just 15 games last season – 10 in the NHL and 5 in the AHL while on a conditioning stint.

With Deslauriers not ready to assume the role of the starter the Oilers needed a starting goalie in the summer of 2009. The answer to their problems was Khabibulin. Why exactly he was the answer I don’t know. Only one time in the previous four years had he played more than 50 games and the injuries were starting to pile up for him. When you factor in that he’s 36 years old the deal starts to look even worse.

That the deal was for four years is insane. Is Deslauriers supposed to play the backup role for four years? Or will Khabibulin transition to that role at some point even though he’s still being paid starting goalie money. After two or three years you’d have to beg someone to take that deal off your hands if you did want to get rid of it.

But the stupidest thing might be that when Dubnyk is subjected to waivers beginning in 2010 the Oilers will be right back where they were in 2008, with three goalies on their roster. So what’s the plan when this happens? If the answer is that Dubnyk is not an NHL goaltender then he would be just a wasted first round pick when the Oilers could have drafted Radulov, Zajac, Wolski, or Green.

What if the team had given Roloson the two year deal he wanted? Based on his play last season you knew he could still play. The only problem might have been year two when Dubnyk became waiver eligible but with only a year left on his deal he’d have been far more tradable unlike Khabibulin and the three years left on his deal.

The Oilers might have been handed a gift with the injury to Khabibulin though. There are 37 games left in this season for the Oilers to decide which goalie will be their goalie of the future. The other will need to be traded or assigned to Springfield at the end of training camp next season. If he’s claimed it’s no big deal because he wasn’t their guy of the future.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that they’ll have three years and $11.25 million dollars left on a deal for a goalie that will be 37 years old and will be coming off of back surgery. The Oilers had better hope they make the right decision between Deslauriers and Dubnyk because it’s very possible that Khabibulin could go down with an injury again and again and again pressing that backup into service and opening the door for more questions about his contract.

Things started out well for the Oiler last night. They dominated the play for the first five minutes and held the Predators without a shot on goal. It looked like maybe the mini-camp was just what this team needed to get going. But when the Predators finally got control of the puck things came apart for the Oilers.

Off a neutral zone turnover by Stone the Predators broke into the Oilers zone, forcing Deslauriers to make a big save. The good save was quickly forgotten though when Weber’s point shot beat Deslauriers high to the glove side. Weber’s got a good sot but Deslauriers gets beat by that shot far too often. He seems to be out far enough to cut down the angle but for some reason that shot keeps getting past him.

Less than 30 seconds later the Predators scored again. This time Gilbert blocked the point shot from Weber but Goc grabbed the lose puck and beat Deslauriers on a backhand from a bad angle at the side of the net. Five good minutes followed by one bad minute and the score is 2-0 Predators.

To all but wrap the game up the Predators scored again before the end of the first period. Off yet another shot from the point that the Oilers couldn’t control Dumont picked up the lose puck and scored on a wrap around. To add insult to injury the goal was scored in the last minute of the period – a category that the Oilers must lead the league in.

The first period wasn’t a good one for Deslauriers but unfortunately it would only get worse. Encouraged by so many defensive zone turnovers by his own team he decided to out do them all with a beauty of his own in the second period. That turnover lead to a goal for Hornqvist, stretching the Predators lead to four, and marked the end of Deslauriers’ night. 10 saves on 14 shots; I guess defensive zone play wasn’t worked on in the mini-camp.

The Oilers finally got on the board in the third period when Jacques managed to get a puck to squeak through Rinne’s five hole. Potulny’ cut the Predators lead to two with a goal on the games first powerplay about seven minutes later and actually put some life back into the game. Thankfully Captain Stupidity was there to kill any momentum and hope that the Oilers had by taking a penalty 30 seconds after the goal.

On a night where the Oilers took just one penalty you knew that the penalty would be Moreau’s. That the penalty would be a lazy hooking penalty behind the Predators net was just icing on the cake. This penalty might be the best example yet of the kind of leadership Moreau brings to this team. Jones scored the Predators fifth goal as time expired on the Moreau penalty. Good work captain, how to lead us to 30^th place.

Penner added a late goal – number 21 on the year for the big man – for the Oilers on a two man advantage to make the final score 5-3. That score and the shot total, 41-28 in favour of the Oilers, flattered the home team on this night. The Oilers were outplayed for all but about eight minutes of the game and when they didn’t have the puck they made almost no effort to get it back. I don’t mind losing but watching a team complacently allow their opposition to just do whatever they wanted to do is frustrating beyond imagination. Is it to much to ask for a little effort out there?

Oilers looking on at mini-camp, photo from edmontonoilers.com

With a whopping three points in their last 12 games the Oilers took advantage of their recent four day break to hold a mini-camp so the team could work on the little things that have been costing them wins of late. If you’re wondering what those things would be, the answer is everything.

The first problem would be scoring. During the recent slide the Oilers have managed to score three or more goals just three times. Even worse they lost one of those games in regulation, another in overtime, and the third was against the Leafs. The power outage has been most noticeable on the powerplay where the Oilers have been a terrible 5-for-40 in their last 12 games. That equates to a 12.5% conversion rate, a full 7% lower than what it was before these 12 games.

But the finger can’t be pointed at offense alone; the Oilers have had their fare share of defensive problems too. In eight of their last twelve games the Oilers have allowed four or more goals. If you’re not scoring goals while at the same time allowing plenty you will lose more often than you win, the Oilers have certainly learned this lesson recently.

For a team 16 points back of a playoff spot the mini-camp might have been too little too late but at least the franchises management is trying to improve the club. Improving doesn’t have to mean winning though. I don’t think that the mini-camp was necessarily about winning games, although that would be a nice side effect, because at this point the playoffs are nothing more than a dream – the Oilers would likely need to play better than 0.750 hockey to even have a shot. What this camp was about was offensive and defensive systems and the little things that the coaches are looking for night in night out, the things they believe will make this team successful in the future.

All that the Oilers will be doing for the rest of the year is evaluating talent and waiting for the draft lottery. If players can’t do what the coaches are asking of them at this point in the season when the games mean nothing then there’s no reason to think they will when the games matter again. If that’s the case it might be time for some of these guys to move on. I don’t mind if to do that the Oilers lose a trade or two because I believe that the ends will justify the means. This season is gone and next year will be more of the same but after that this team could start to show signs of life once again if the dead weight is eliminated – or at the very least limited. That process should begin tonight.

Looking at the numbers

Tonight the Oilers will be looking to capitalize on all the things that they learned during their time off with a win over the Predators. The Predators – who the Oilers are 1-1-0 against this season – are a very interesting team with a lot of numbers and stats similar to the Oilers. The exception of course is the number in the win column and at the end of the day that’s all that counts.

The Predators take about two more shots per game than the Oilers and allow two fewer shots on goal. The special teams of the two squads are within a percentage point of each other. Even goals scored are almost identical – the Predators score 0.1 more goals per game – and yet the Predators sit 10 spots and 20 points ahead of the Oilers.

The only difference of note is goals against. The Oilers give up 0.5 more goals per game than the Predators. That doesn’t seem like a lot but a goal here or there costs you games. The Predators seem to understand that, hopefully Quinn and company drilled that into the Oilers during their mini-camp.

On the injury front

Visnovsky will return from an ankle injury tonight, he missed the Oilers previous three games. With one play back in the lineup someone else had to go down. That player would be Brule who will sit out tonight’s game with the flu. Pouliot looks like he might finally be getting close to returning – which is not good news if you ask me – as he was assigned to Springfield today for a conditioning stint.

Prediction

In a fast, physical game I think the Oilers will come out on top tonight. It’ll be close game with a final score of 3-2 for the home squad.

Photo from Brian Gavriloff, edmontonjournal.com

In a battle of two teams at the bottom of the Western Conference the Oilers showed why they are the worst team in the West. The game was a snoozer from the get go. There was no energy and all the fans could do was hope it would end soon, it didn’t. At one point I pulled out my ticket to see hope many home games we had left – to my horror the answer is 18.

The final score wasn’t that terrible – 4-2 for the Blue Jackets – but the game was. The Oilers were outplayed and outhustled most of the night. The first period was especially unbalanced and had it not been for a great top shelf shot off the stick of Pisani the Oilers would have gone into the first trailing the Jackets by a goal.

I’ve never figured out what it is with Pisani but the guy seems to be able to play with anyone. He’s been back for two games but has already created chemistry with his line mates. He’s a solid third line player and if he’s healthy enough to keep playing next year I really hope that the Oilers are smart enough to make sure that he plays here next season.

The second period was a better frame for the Oilers but the result was much the same. The Blue Jackets took the lead on a play where ex-Oilers Torres absolutely flattened Smid in front of the net and got the puck to Vermette. Vermette got the shot off quick enough that Dubnyk wasn’t able to get out quick enough to cut down the angle making this one pretty easy for Vermette.

The Oilers tied it up early in the third period on a goal by Gagner. Grebeshkov made a real nice pass to get the puck over to Gagner who scored while he was falling down. Grebeshkov probably should have taken the shot from the high slot instead of making the pass but the pass was nice and it gave the fans something to cheer about, briefly at least.

Shortly after the Gagner goal Staios took a hold penalty in front of the Oilers net. I don’t see the Jackets play many games so I didn’t know this but they have a pretty good powerplay. The Oilers had been able to kill off a couple penalties in the game so far but with the game tied in the third period you just knew the Jackets would convert this one. Huselius was the man who put the puck past Dubnyk.

Staios’ penalty was just a sample of great night. Not only was he in the box for the game winner, he was on the ice for the other three goals. There’s a stat line that you’ve got to like. But if you’re talking bad defensemen then you can’t forget Strudwick. Both looked like pylons and were routinely beat both in the corner and in front of the net.

The last goal was scored by ex-Oiler Hejda. Of course the Oilers had to help out by getting O’Sullivan to deflect it past Dubnyk. At that point there was still eight and a half minutes left but you knew this one was done, there wasn’t going to be another two goal comeback on this night.

Dubnyk takes the loss in his second career start. He didn’t play great, just a good game. Positionally he was better last night than in his previous performance but I still have yet to see him make that big save that help keep his team in the game. Looking back at last night the Vermette goal is where the big save would have been nice. That would have been a tough save to make but good goalies make that save.

The Oilers now get four days off before they host the Predators next Tuesday. This stretch was supposed to see the team head to Palm Springs for some fun in the sun but in light of their current situation that trip has been cancelled and they’ll instead be hold a mini camp to work on fundamentals and systems. 44 games in, it might be a little late for that.

How bad are these teams? Well the season is over for both teams already and both have just one win in their last ten games. In those same ten games Columbus has three losses in extra time to the Oilers one so I guess you could call them the hotter (???) of the two teams. Of course Columbus hasn’t won a road game since November 19 – a stretch of 13 losses – so you might want to take that hotter statement with a grain of salt.

Things are going so poorly in Columbus that calls for Hitchcock’s head are increasing by the day. Quinn is safe in Edmonton because this is his first year behind the Oilers bench and when a team loses their best forward (Hemsky) and the goaltender (Khabibulin) the expectations tend to get dialed back a notch – even in Edmonton where the expectations are always unrealistic.

The problem for both teams this season has been that too many pucks are ending up in their net. For a Hitchcock coached team this is especially surprising. Right now the Jackets and Oilers are ties for 26^th in the NHL in goals against per game with an average of 3.23, only Atlanta, Toronto, and Carolina are worse. But as bad as these teams have been defensively this season I wouldn’t necessarily bet the over either, the Oilers are 19^th in goals for, the Jackets are 22^nd.

With stats like those tonight’s game might just come down to goaltending. After allowing six goals on 17 shots it’s likely that Mason will get the night off in favour of Garon who would be starting for the second time this season here in Edmonton against his old team. That previous start was a crazy game where the Oilers fell behind 4-1 at the midpoint of the game but battled back to win 6-4 lead by five point nights from Penner and Hemsky.

At the other end of the ice iIt looks like the Oilers meanwhile will be giving Dubnyk his second career start tonight and for a change Deslauriers will get a night off – this is something I called for a couple of days ago. In his first career start Dubnyk gave up seven goals but was left to fend for himself by an absentee defense more than a couple of times that night.

On the injury front Visnovsky skated at practice this morning but won’t play tonight for the Oilers. For Columbus Picard and Torres are both listed as day to day right now. If Torres doesn’t play that would be bad news for Blue Jackets fans as ex Oilers tend to kill Edmonton on home ice.

In a battle of two terrible teams I always pick the home squad. I’m thinking 4-2 for the Oilers.

Phoenix grabbed the lead off a neutral zone faceoff with both team playing a man short. For some reason the Oilers lined up with players at all three forward positions and the lone back man against the boards leaving the centre of the ice wide open. When Vrbata was missed off the draw he simple picked up the lose puck and skated in all alone; 1-0 Phoenix.

In the second period the Coyotes extended the lead to 2-0 thanks to poor rebound control from Deslauriers. When bad angle shots are simply kicked into the slot by the goalie they will end up in the back of the net more often than not. If Doan is the man in the crease it’s a near certainty. That would be the case here as well.

But the Oilers bounced back. First Brule scored with time running out on a powerplay. The shot came from just off the half wall to Bryzgalov’s right. The goal wasn’t great beating Bryzagalov through the five hole; my bet would be that he’d like to have that one back. Then the Oil tied it up at two on the beautiful breakaway from O’Sullivan that finished with a top shelf backhand.

As is so often the case with the Oilers of late though, the good times were short lived. First came an ugly goal through the five hole from Hanzal that Deslauriers needs to stop, followed by a goal by Prucha to reestablish the Coyotes two goal lead. On the fourth goal Nilsson turned the puck over at the blue line, it was fired across to Prucha who fired a onetimer that Deslauriers had no chance of stopping.

With the Oilers already coming back from two goals down and Team Canada having done the same a third comeback would have seemed like a stretch but believe it or not it happened. The Oilers did catch a break when a Phoenix goal that would have mage the score 5-2 was disallowed for reasons I still can’t figure out. The referee told the fans that there was no interference but also no goal. I’m not sure how that works but I’ll take it.

In the third period the Oilers got goals from Grebeshkov and Penner. The Grebeshkov goal was the result of hard work by Gagner in the corner to force a turnover. Penner’s goal was just a garbage goal that he banged in while standing in the blue paint. And just like that it was tied at four and we’re headed to overtime.

In the extra frame Pisani got whistled for a tripping penalty. Yeah I guess it was a penalty but in extra time when the result is a 4 on 3 it was a tough one to swallow. Tougher still was on the penalty kill when Smid lost his stick resulting in what is essentially a 4 on 2 ½. The result was about what you expect; Doan ripped a shot from the point that Deslauriers just had no chance to stop and the Coyotes win 5-4.

The loser point might not be what the Oilers wanted when they worked so hard to tie it up but when a team has just two points in their last ten games I’d be willing to bet that they’ll take points wherever they can find them.

Even though they lost the game the Oilers showed some grit and character in twice battling back from a two goal deficit. There were other positives too, O’Sullivan played a good game for the first time in a long time, Gagner played great registering an assist and seven shots, and Penner ended a six game goalless drought.

Up next for the Oilers is a game against fellow cellar dweller the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday.