Jakub Voracek, 1st round pick, and....3rd round pick...(Opens Envelope) Name 3 things traded for Jeff Carter!

This year, once again with the assistance of my good friend Andrew R (and some Bitches Brew…..both the beer and the music), I sat down to do my NHL Mock Draft.  As per usual, trades were considered, and by a phenomenal stroke of luck we called Carter to Columbus for Voracek and the 8th pick….so we’re ready to go.

This was fun and challenging, as always, but especially this year, because it’s such a fluid draft and people are seriously all over the place.  I’ve seen guys ranked top 10 in some drafts and out of the 1st round in others.  I’m sure some of these picks will sound stupid, but I’m sure I’ll be wrong a lot….but hey, nobody thought Dylan McIlrath would go before Cam Fowler last year.

Without further ado, here we go…

1. Edmonton Oilers: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Red Deer (WHL)

I think there are a few question marks about Nugent-Hopkins, specifically his size and willingness to go to the dirty areas, but despite this the Oilers think he’s too good to pass up at #1.  They hope he and Taylor Hall form a dynamic duo for years to come.

2. Colorado Avalanche: Gabriel Landeskog, W, Kitchener (OHL)

We agonized over this pick, but we thought at the end of the day the Avalanche would be seduced by the size, heart, grit, and NHL readiness of Landeskog.  He’s a Chris Stewart type – the kind of player you hold on to, and never trade, come hell or high water!  Wait….what?

3. Florida Panthers: Sean Couturier, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)

Dale Tallon is a well-known fan of big players, and he overlooks the “analysis paralysis” in the scouting community to jump on Sean Couturier.  Back-to-back 96-point seasons (despite having mono at the start of this year), experience at the WJC, winning the Mike Bossy Award, and his size (6’4) make him the right move for the Panthers.

4. New Jersey Devils: Adam Larsson, D, Skelleftea (SEL)

The Devils, by most accounts, should have lost their 1st round pick this year in the Kovalchuk chicanery.  Instead, they won the draft lottery, and Lou Lamoriello looks like the cat who ate the canary after Larsson falls to him at 4.  He had a sub-par year in the SEL by most standards, but Larsson’s talent and hockey sense will make him the best Devils blueline prospect since Scott Niedermayer.

5. New York Islanders: Ryan Strome, C, Niagara (OHL)

I can already hear the Dougie Hamilton fans sharpening their knives, but hear me out.  In addition to resembling Mr. Burns (according to Niagara fans), I believe Strome is the best long-term fit for the Islanders.  He projects as a top center with playmaking ability and creativity, and the Islanders justify this pick by citing his higher projection.  At the end of the day, when you pick 5th, you want the guy who will be the better player down the road, not the biggest positional need or the guy who will calm Josh Bailey’s nerves about being replaced.  I’ve had a hunch about Strome for a while, and I will not back off from it like I did last year with Nino Niederreiter.

Here’s a Strome highlight reel goal:

Highlight Reel Goal From Strome

6. Ottawa Senators: Jonathan Huberdeau, C, St. John’s (QMJHL)

Huberdeau slips to Ottawa despite his incredible playoff run with the Memorial Cup champions, and Bryan Murray is glad he did (especially since Brian Burke is nowhere to be seen and can’t take the pick out of spite).  Huberdeau projects as a flashy offensive player, and he’ll be a good one for Ottawa.

7. Winnipeg Not Yet Jets: Dougie Hamilton, D, Niagara (OHL)

Gary Bettman was much like the father in this famous Simpsons scene recently:

The NHL has indeed gone back to Winnipeg, and they bring this hulking (6’4) d-man with them.  Hamilton is a smart player who will be a good fit on this team.

8. Philadelphia Flyers (From Columbus): Duncan Siemens, D, Saskatoon (WHL)

I had this as a mock trade, and now it’s a real trade.  Siemens is big (6’3), mean, and a hard hitter….just the kind of kid the Flyers love.  They pick him over my other option here, Mika Zibanejad, and hope Chris Pronger’s influence helps him become a star.

9. Boston Bruins (From Toronto): Ryan Murphy, D, Kitchener (OHL)

Fresh off their Cup win, the Bruins add Ryan Murphy, whose suspect D is more than balanced out by skilled offense.  He could be a true difference-maker on the Bruins PP for years to come, and they could always hide him with a defensive d-man in even strength situations to mask his weakness.

10. Minnesota Wild: Nathan Beaulieu, D, St. John’s (QMJHL)

The Wild step up to grab mobile but raw D prospect Nathan Beaulieu, whom some scouts have ranked above Hamilton, continuing a run on defense in this part of the draft.  Beaulieu is a few years away but the Wild fans will cheer this one tomorrow night at the Xcel Energy Center.

11. Colorado Avalanche (From St. Louis): Jamieson Oleksiak, D, Northeastern University (NCAA)

The Avalanche have their forward and possible future captain in Landeskog.  Now, playing with house money, they feel like they can reach just a bit for the hulking (6’7) defender Oleksiak, and give him time to develop at his own pace that he might not have received if he were a team’s top pick.  He may leave Northeastern to play major junior next year; let’s keep an eye.

12. Carolina Hurricanes: Mika Zibanejad, President of Iran C/W, Djurgarden (SEL)

Zibanejad finds a home with the Carolina Hurricanes, who still need depth at every position and grab the best player available.  Some teams have him ranked top 5, but he slips due to being 2nd choice for a few of the teams above (Islanders, Winnipeg, Flyers, Avalanche).  The Canes are glad to have this tough, hard-nosed player, and their fans will be as well.

And I ran......I ran so far away....

13. Calgary Flames: Joel Armia, W, Assat Pori (FIN)

The Flames go for the home run by picking Armia, one of the more talented Finnish forward prospects in the last 10 years.  There are some questions about his work ethic, but the Flames love his talent too much to let him slip away.

14. Dallas Stars: Sven Bartschi, W, Portland (WHL)

The Stars jump on The Other Swiss Winterhawk, Sven Bartschi, who was a force of nature in this year’s Memorial Cup playoffs.  Some are surprised to see him slip so far, but he was again second choice for many teams, and the Stars practically pinch themselves on the way to the podium.

15. New York Rangers: Nicklas Jensen, RW, Oshawa (OHL)

The Islanders have a Dane, and now the Rangers have one too. Jensen’s hockey sense is off the charts, and the Rangers, after targeting D in the first round in previous years, think he’s the right move at 15 this year.

16. Buffalo Sabres: Oscar Klefbom, D, Farjestad (SEL)

The Sabres go for the BPA with Oscar Klefbom, a mobile, agile, and incredibly smart Swedish defenseman.  He has the potential to be the steal of the 1st round at this slot.

17. Montral Canadiens: Rocco Grimaldi, F, US NTDP

The Canadiens have trouble finding a forward taller than 5’3, and this does not get better with Grimaldi, who would be the shortest player in the NHL should he make it (yes, even smaller than Nathan Gerbe…who is a gnat).  However, he may be the most skilled player in the whole draft, and you can’t doubt his will to make it.  The Habs will look for size elsewhere….or not…

18. Chicago Blackhawks: Matt Puempel, W, Peterborough (OHL)

Puempel is a pure goal-scorer, and the Blackhawks go for the home run in continuing the rebuild of their farm system.  There are questions about his consistency, but Puempel is a great call here.

19. Edmonton Oilers: John Gibson, G, US NTDP

The Oilers have many goaltenders in the system, including Devan Dubnyk and Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, but none project as a solid #1 goaltender.  Therefore, with Nugent-Hopkins in the fold, the Oilers jump up and take Gibson, hoping he will stabilize the crease for years to come.

20. Phoenix Coyotes: Mark McNeill, C, Prince Albert (WHL)

McNeill is strong in the corners, kills penalties well, and generally drives hard to the net.  The Coyotes have some danglers in the system, and McNeill projects as a strong, safe pick….they’re glad to have him.

21. Ottawa Senators (From Nashville): Brandon Saad, LW, Saginaw (OHL)

Ottawa is also playing with house money after nabbing Huberdeau at 6, and they can afford to take a flyer on Brandon Saad.  Saad will either be a home run power forward or a groundout, but with Huberdeau hogging all the attention as a top pick the Senators can let the Pennsylvania native find himself without a lot of pressure.

22. Anaheim Ducks: Joe Morrow, D, Portland (WHL)

Joe Morrow rocketed up the draft board due to his hockey sense, tenacity, and offensive potential.  The Ducks grab him and hope he’ll anchor the blueline for years alongside Fowler and Sbisa.

23. Pittsburgh Penguins: Tyler Biggs, RW, US NTDP

Even though the Penguins absolutely deplore violence in all its forms, they can’t resist another boom or bust type in Biggs.  He has size and a great net-front presence, and they hope he develops into his full potential.

24. Detroit Red Wings: Jonas Brodin, D, Farjestad (SEL)

This is almost too easy.  Smooth-skating, intelligent but raw d-man out of Sweden?  The Red Wings live for picks like this.  Brodin oozes talent and potential, and in Detroit he may have the best chance to harness them.

25. Toronto Maple Leafs (From Flyers): David Musil, D, Vancouver (WHL)

At a time, the hulking Musil was rated a potential top 5 pick in this draft.  His performance steadied, and he fell amid concerns his ceiling is not as high as originally thought.  He still plays a mean game and has offensive potential beyond that of his father, Frank, and he’s just truculent enough to fit Brian Burke’s bill.

26. Washington Capitals: Alexander Kochlachev, C, Windsor (OHL)

This is another almost no-brainer, as we know the Capitals LOVE their Russians.  Kochlachev oozes skill and pure offense, making him a potential home run pick this late in the draft.

27. San Jose Sharks: Mark Schiefele, C, Barrie (OHL)

The Sharks pick Schiefele as best player available, slightly ahead of J.T. Miller from the US NTDP.  Schiefele has discipline, playmaking ability, and  great net-front presence, making him a good complement to the current crop of prospects in the South Bay.

28. Tampa Bay Lightning: Connor Murphy, D, US NTDP

Murphy is a big, competitive 2-way winger who will do a little bit of everything for Steve Yzerman’s club in Tampa.  He’s best available for them.

29. Vancouver Canucks: Scott Mayfield, D, Youngstown (USHL)

He’s big, he’s smooth, he’s poised with the puck, and he’ll be a great fit in Vancouver.

30. Toronto Maple Leafs (From Boston): Zach Phillips, C/W, St. John’s (QMJHL)

Toronto closes out the pick by making it a trio from the Memorial Cup champions.  Phillips is a smart player with great puck skills and an ability to score.  Good fit for what they’re building in Toronto.

Many Islanders fans are frustrated with the whole Lighthouse Project saga, and claim they only want to talk about hockey.  In reality, the Islanders have never been just about hockey.  They were formed because the NHL wanted to keep the WHA from putting a team in Nassau Coliseum, an arena built after severe compromises that was out of date about 5 years after it was finished, and designed with an initial capacity of a little over 12,000.  Original plans called for a 20,000 seat arena with an underground Long Island Rail Road station, and the only indication of what could’ve been is that in the Coliseum Expo Hall, you can still see a hidden door that reads “Subway Entrance.”  The Coliseum was a patronage mill for corrupt Nassau County politicians for decades, including the deal with SMG to manage the facility, which, despite being crippling, has kept the Islanders here long after they may have left.

Nassau County has been broke for a long time, and the Lighthouse Project came about because just building an arena would’ve been flushing money down the toilet.  The development was meant to raise the money for a renovation of Nassau Coliseum, and most people responded strongly to it.

The Lighthouse Project was introduced at a seminal moment in Long Island’s history, and many people hoped it would signal a new way of thinking for an area that began the whole idea of suburbia but, like its only professional sports team, had fallen on hard times.

Monday, Kate Murray threw on the brakes and spit in all of our faces.  The Town of Hempstead unveiled its “vision” for the Coliseum site, a 61% reduction to the original vision.  What was promised as the beacon of hope for Long Island became a Hobbit village, and the Islanders’ future is in flux as a result.

Is the Lighthouse Dead?

Let’s get one thing out of the way: reports of the Lighthouse Project’s death on Monday have been greatly exaggerated, because in all honesty the vision as first proposed has been dead since last October.  It was clear that the Town of Hempstead, which controls zoning over the Nassau County-owned land for the Lighthouse Project, which was approved 16-2 by the Nassau legislature in 2006, had serious reservations about the size and scope, as evidenced by repeated comments about “preserving the suburban way of life“.

Before going dark, even Charles Wang acknowledged the likelihood of a scale-down, repeatedly begging the Town of Hempstead to “just tell me what I can build.”

We all expected the Town to reduce the project.

None of us expected this.

The Gutting

Make no mistake about it: What Kate Murray unveiled is a brainless, gutless, visionless insult to Charles Wang and all of us.  The project claims to be mixed-use, yet it doesn’t follow even the most basic economic principles.  The Town is also completely misrepresenting the actual size, including the parking lots in their claims of new construction.  Traffic plans included some elements the Town itself criticized at the September re-zoning hearings, which would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.  Then again, one of the Hempstead council members also once objected to a traffic light because “people could just not stop at it.”

Kate Murray, in her introductory press conference, made a statement so shocking and so galling that I have to question her fitness to hold elected office.  Murray admitted that she never considered whether the plan would be economically viable for any developer to actually do it.  I understand that Kate Murray has to think about what she believes is the best project for the Town, but to avoid basic fact is both stupid and dangerously naive.  If the project is not economically viable for a developer to build it, the project will never exist.  If the project doesn’t exist, it will by definition do nothing to benefit the community.  For Kate Murray to stand there and say she wasted $200,000 of my and your tax dollars on a plan when she has no clue whether or not its viable is naive at best and negligent at worst.

I can’t believe this needs to be said again.  People are in business to make money.  Since it’s been proven an arena cannot be profitable if built as a stand-alone, and the government will not provide any funds (usual amount is about 65-75%, according to sports economist Andrew Zimbalist), developing the land to raise money for a new arena is the only solution.  In addition, the Lighthouse was designed as an integrated whole, so changing pieces could throw the whole thing off kilter.  The retail was meant to support the 2300 residential units planned.  Cutting the residential units down to only 500 without corresponding cuts to the retail will do MORE to exacerbate the problem of vacancies in commercial space that so many people suddenly started caring about when the Lighthouse Project was proposed.

Reaction from residents has been largely negative, and it seems that Charles Wang has gotten the point.  Friends who work around Nassau Coliseum say that the Lighthouse billboards and murals are being taken down.

Charles Wang should have been better with explaining exactly why this project existed at the size and scale it did, but people still supported it in record numbers (though, sadly, not at the polls).  It’s a shame to think it could all end like this.

Leaving Long Island?

Brooklyn and Queens are constantly mentioned as possible relocation places for the Islanders, since Brooklyn is building a new arena and certain interests in Queens are interested in building a new home for the Islanders next to Citi Field at Willets Point.  It’s a possibility, but there still has not been a confirmed solid offer from someone in a position of actually making it happen.  There have been lots of rumors and lots of posturing from politicians and community leaders who have no power in the situation (Brooklyn Borough President, Queens Chamber of Commerce President), but despite a lot of speculating there hasn’t been a confirmation.

Some frustrated Islanders fans are also pushing Suffolk County as a potential relocation option.  Please stop doing that; it’s completely not viable.

Let’s also remember one other thing: Charles Wang’s actions suggest he genuinely doesn’t want to move.**  He has had many opportunities to make public overtures to Brooklyn and Queens, but he hasn’t.  The fact that nobody with power has come out to woo the Islanders could also suggest that these options aren’t the slam dunks that frustrated hockey fans want them to be.

Personally, even though it makes more sense to stay in the area, I have to be concerned the Islanders will leave until there is a solid deal to prevent that.  Remember, nobody thought the Brooklyn Dodgers would ever move….until they did.

Moving Forward

Developers and economists have roundly panned Hempstead’s new proposal, even though Kate Murray continues to defend it and insist there will be no negotiation.

This ridiculous “plan” has also fractured the Republican Party, pitting County Executive Ed Mangano against Murray and the Town of Hempstead.  Mangano released a joint statement with the Lighthouse Development Group panning the project as not viable, either for the owner of the site (Nassau County) or the group still bound by a Designated Developer Agreement (The Lighthouse).  Kate Murray has made it clear that she believes there should be no negotiation from here, so the County Executive is ostensibly going in a different direction…

As sources stated to Islanders Point Blank (and as I heard in Ed Mangano’s office last week), Nassau County is attempting to pivot toward a casino at the Coliseum site in partnership with the recently-recognized Shinnecock Nation.  As was the case with the new Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh (which is already having trouble paying its bills), the Shinnecock Nation would be expected to provide the money to replace Nassau Coliseum in exchange for receiving development rights to a casino and entertainment complex on the property.  Some believe this is an attractive option because the land would be granted to the Shinnecock Nation as a federal “land-in trust.”  This would be approved by the state and not subject to the zoning regulations of the Town of Hempstead, nor would it be susceptible to local lawsuits.

However, let’s not get ready for the roulette tables just yet.  A casino is expected to meet fierce opposition, and the Shinnecocks, who waited 30 years to get this close to federal recognition, have repeatedly said they won’t build a casino in a place where they aren’t wanted.  In addition, a group connected to casino interests in Connecticut (home to both Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun) has filed suit challenging the decision to recognize the Shinnecock tribe, which will delay any planned casino for months, or even years.

Speaking of plans, neither Mangano nor the Shinnecocks actually have a casino plan.  The Shinnecocks have a development partner but no solid plans, and Ed Mangano’s office seems to only have some rough revenue projections based on loose requirements.  It’s not like this plan could go through tomorrow, or possibly even within the year.
The political angle is important, too.  The NY State Assembly is controlled by Democrat Sheldon Silver of Manhattan, and two potential “racinos” are proposed at the Aqueduct and Belmont race.  Would Silver and the assembly approve a project at the Coliseum that denied the city that revenue?  It’s not clear they would.

We also have to consider that this could be a ploy.  Kate Murray may have said that the proposed disgrace new zone is not negotiable, but she could quickly change her tune when she sees what could alternatively be done with the site.  It’s likely not a ploy, but the thought of a casino and complete removal of her own power in this situation could bring Kate Murray back to the table.

We’ve reached a point where we all want a resolution, but this news has seemingly put us farther away from that.  Expect this to get a lot uglier before it gets better.

One thing’s for sure: the chances that we will get a visionary project are now slim to none.  In the end, we may be left with nothing more than the cheap cash grab of a casino….or a vacant parking lot and the distant memory of the New York Islanders and what could’ve been.

As her annoying and self-serving TV commercials say: Thanks, Kate Murray.

Last week, armed with the ISS draft primer, index cards, and lots of beer, my good friend Andrew and I sat down to do our mock draft.  We had it done, and I even previewed it on Su Ring’s radio show last Sunday.  Then, disaster struck.  2 picks were traded, throwing the draft strategy for at least half the league into question, and B.D. Gallof posted a fantastic piece on this site that alluded to the Islanders’ draft strategy and showed that my initial hunch was likely wrong. 

Therefore, last night, we re-did the mock draft from the ground up.  Due to a running gag involving the auto spelling correction on my iPhone, we’ve decided to call it the “Ducked” Version.

Three things to go over, right out of the gate.  First, we did take trades into consideration.  Frankly I think a mock draft is useless if you assume each team actually drafts in its original spot, since that never happens.  In addition, we are considering both off the board picks and sliders.  I’m not sure if I personally agree with one of our sliders, but there are many factors, and we’ve tried to get into the heads of the individual GM’s and make a move that they could make in the same situation.  Finally, I’m going to mention two big trends that I think will drive this draft as we move forward.

Without further ado, away we go:

1. Edmonton Oilers – Taylor Hall, LW (Windsor – OHL)

The Oilers answer this year’s John Tavares/Matt Duchene Question in the same way the Islanders answered it last year.  They wouldn’t go wrong with Tyler Seguin, who when all is said and done could be the best player of this draft, but the Oilers need the dazzling scoring ability of new Canadian hero Taylor Hall.  When all is said and done, this is a pretty easy pick.

2. Boston Bruins (From Toronto) – Tyler Seguin, C (Plymouth – OHL)

Serious questions about this team’s heart abound after their embarrassing performance against the Flyers in the playoffs, in which, leading 3-0, they managed to snare defeat from the jaws of victory.  Some wondered if trading this pick for an immediate star was the better bet than trading the 15th, but the Bruins never seriously considered that, and you could understand why.  Seguin is a dynamic force with a nasty streak who could easily develop into a consistent 90-100 point player in the NHL.  The guarantee of one of Seguin or Hall allowed the Bruins, likely thinking they were playing with house money, to roll the dice on the Horton trade.

3. Florida Panthers - Brett Connolly, LW (Prince George – WHL)

 From all reports Connolly is their guy, since the Panthers showed a surprising lack of interest in any of the elite defense prospects. The best situation for the Cats is to trade down and get a top 6 back in return since they have enough picks, but the current draft slotting doesn’t allow this.  They’ll take Connolly, who seems to have answered questions about the health of his hip to a satisfactory degree.  If he can stay healthy, the Panthers will have a dynamic offensive player who will grace their top line for years to come.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets – Cam Fowler, D (Windsor, OHL)

Something about him just screams OHIO! Not to mention the Jackets need a mobile D-man and Fowler is the most NHL ready.  He will immediately step in, and he has a chance to both anchor their blue line for years to come and play in many NHL all-star games.

TRADE – The Hurricanes lack depth at all positions and are starved for elite prospect talent, and the Islanders want to stockpile picks while still targeting their player.  This is a good deal for both teams:

To CAR: 5th Pick

To NYI: 7th Pick, 37th Pick, and 157th Pick

5. Carolina Hurricanes (From New York Islanders) – Erik Gudbranson, D (Kingston, OHL)

The Blue Jackets hope this hulking defender with a nasty streak and maturity beyond his years will anchor the blueline for many years to come.  They also hope that the similarities to Drake Berehowsky, the last such defender drafted so high from Kingston, are unfounded.

6. Tampa Bay Lightning: Brandon Gormley, D (Moncton, QMJHL)

Some see Gormley as a “safe” pick, but he is a great complement for Victor Hedman.  The Lightning hope they now have a top defensive pairing to go with their elite offensive talent, and they hope Dustin Tokarski arrives soon to lock down their goaltending.

7. New York Islanders (From Carolina) – Ryan Johansen, C (Portland – WHL)

We agonized over this pick, because like B.D. I have enormous personal affection for Nino Niederreiter.  I almost put him in this pick a few times, but it just didn’t seem to fit as well as Johansen.  This big center projects to be a Ryan Getzlaf or Joe Thornton (hopefully without the rep for playoff thumb-sucking…) type, with smart 2-way play.  He rocketed up the draft board, and Garth Snow is glad to have him.  I’m not going to the Draft Party tonight (I swore off it after 2008), but I’d be interested to see how the Islanders fans respond if this is the case.

(Blogger’s Note: I think if the Islanders pick at 5 they take Niederreiter)

8. Atlanta Thrashers – Jack Campbell, G (US NTDP)

Jack Campbell, who had an otherworldly season, backstopping the USA to gold at the World Junior Championships and winning many other accolades, is the answer to the long-term goaltending question in Atlanta.  He will play in Windsor of the OHL next year, but he could challenge for the starting job soon after.

9. Minnesota Wild – Mikael Granlund, C/W (HIFK – Helsinki)

A smallish, skilled European with a rep for making those around him better?  That screams Minnesota Wild to me.  Granlund, who has been compared to a more offensively-gifted Saku Koivu, proves emphatically that the Wild are no longer that defensive, trapping team.  He should be ready in 2 years, and the Wild will be glad when he is.

10. New York Rangers – Vladimir Tarasenko, LW (Sibir – KHL)

The Rangers have had good luck with Russian players, and they can afford the bribe money to get him out of the KHL, so they will not be able to pass on this dynamic offensive force whom many believe is NHL-ready now.

11. Dallas Stars – Nino Niederreiter, W (Portland – WHL)

I’m as surprised as any of you that El Nino fell out of the top 10 in this mock, but he ended up being second choice for many of the teams ahead, and Dallas is all too happy he fell into their laps.  Niederreiter brings dynamic offensive ability and one of the ultimate intangibles: a burning desire to win.  He’ll fit in well with a suddenly rebuilding Dallas team.

12. Anaheim Ducks – Jon Merrill, D (US NTDP)

The Ducks need a top-4 defender with offensive gifts and a strong physical game, like Chris Pronger.  Since we can’t recall such a player ever playing for the Ducks, we believe they will be looking at one of the 2 big defenders.  Merrill has the edge over Forbort because his offensive upside is higher, his hockey sense is high, and he has a proven record on the power play.  There are some questions about his attitude after he got in trouble for underage drinking, but the Ducks are seduced by his talent and hope Red Berenson straightens him out (Merrill is Michigan-bound for next year).

13. Phoenix Coyotes – Derek Forbort, D (US NTDP)

There is a bumper crop of defensemen from the US development program this year, and the Coyotes are happy this particular one is still there.  The Coyotes D corps is aging, and Zbynek Michalek is almost certainly gone as a UFA this year. The Coyotes will not get Siouxed (Forbort is UND-bound) for making this pick. He is likely a 2-3 year developer in the WCHA and may get used to the cold enough to adjust to life in Winnipeg or, should the Coyotes stabilize their situation, melt in the desert.  Team brass hope he will join last year’s 1st round pick, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, on the blueline for many years to come.  Stay tuned, the Coyotes aren’t done re-tooling their D just yet.

14. St. Louis Blues – Jeff Skinner, C (Kitchener, OHL)

A player touted by some as the best pure goal scorer in the draft, but whose ranking is far from settled in the scouting community, falls into the Blues’ laps at 14. Skinner oozes goal-scoring ability, and the Blues hope he will anchor their center corps along with Inglourious Backes and the rest of the Basterds.

15. Florida Panthers – Austin Watson, RW (Peterborough – OHL)

We looked into the possibility of the Panthers trading this pick for Jeff Carter, but the Panthers’ salary cap figure made us think it wouldn’t work from their perspective (if they trade the pick, however, that’s what I predict).  Florida falls in love with the versatility and hockey smarts shown by the 6’3 Watson, who has a big projectable body and excelled in every role he played in junior.  I hope he enjoys South Beach…um…Sunrise.

16. Ottawa Senators – Alexander Burmistrov, C (Barrie – OHL)

Burmistrov has gone on record many times saying how much he despises the KHL, but he still slides because every Russian player has to be considered a risk and some might think the centerman doth protest too much.  After all, Alexander Radulov made the same noises about his desire to play in the NHL before he was drafted, and that didn’t work out well.  The Senators are glad to take this talented playmaker, one of the best players in the draft.  Where’s Brian Burke to take this pick out of spite?

17. Colorado Avalanche – Dylan McIlrath, D (Moose Jaw – WHL)

The Avalanche are looking D, and they go for the home run with the hulking and physical McIlrath, whose game can best be described as, well, “rath.”  This nasty, bruising defenseman needs to improve his hockey sense and skating, but the Avalanche are deep with soon-to-be-ready D prospects like former BU defensive partners Kevin Shattenkirk and Colby Cohen. They can give him a few years to develop at his own pace.

Trade: The Predators have a dearth of picks in the later rounds, and with the recent trading of Arnott and Hamhuis they’re looking to re-load.  Buffalo is looking D and has the bullets to move up:

To NSH: Picks 23, 75, and 143

To BUF: Pick 18

18. Buffalo Sabres (From Nashville) – Mark Pysyk, D (Edmonton – OHL)

Some consider Pysyk a “safe” pick, but he’s the right pick for a conservative, team-oriented GM like Darcy Regier.  Pysyk does his job effectively and has received high marks for his skating.  He’s not overly physical, but he has some offensive upside, and his positional play is top-notch.  He’ll look good in Buffalo.

19. Los Angeles Kings – Quinton Howden, LW (Moose Jaw – WHL)

Howden is another player whose hockey sense is off the charts; the rep is that he can beat you many different ways and loves to set up in front of the net.  Make Howden a special project for Ryan Smyth, who made a nice career out of this sort of play.  Another tough player to go with the physical nature of the Kings, who are setting up to be dangerous for years to come.  There is enough depth on this team at all levels for Howden to progress at his own pace.

20. Pittsburgh Penguins – Emerson Etem, C/W (Medicine Hat – WHL)

Some have Etem ranked top 12 or even top 10, but he slips to 20 (this is a very fluid draft) and the Penguins are glad he’s there.  The team in constant search for a winger for Crosby hopes the talented and smart Etem can be a part of the answer.

21. Detroit Red Wings – Ludvig Rensfeldt, LW (Brynas IF – Sweden)

A talented, scoring Swede with a rep for doing dirty work and an emphasis on the little things that win games?  Jeez, this sounds like the kind of player the Red Wings dig up in the later rounds.  Rensfeldt is not far away from being NHL-ready, and the fans in the self-proclaimed “Hockeytown” will be glad when he comes over.

TRADE – A blockbuster, in fact.  Brian Burke has been noticeably silent since he traded this year’s 1st as part of the Phil Kessel deal, but here’s a chance to make a deal that benefits everyone.  The Coyotes are still looking for anchors at D to replace their aging core and those who will depart via free agency.  They also have a glut of forwards in their system, and Brian Burke needs a top-6 winger.  We propose this deal, headlined by players who have something to prove and fill each team’s respective needs:

To PHX: Tomas Kaberle, Jerry D’Amigo, Jesse Blacker

To TOR: Picks 22 and 113, Scottie Upshall

Upshall, who was on pace for 30 goals before a knee injury stopped him at 18, is a great fit for a wide-open Toronto team, and Phoenix can replace his spot in the lineup with one of Boedker, Turris, Tikhonov, or the recently-acquired Lee Stempniak.

22. Toronto Maple Leafs (From Phoenix) – Nick Bjugstad, C (Blaine HS – MN)

This year’s Mr. Hockey slips a bit due to concerns over the quality (or lack thereof) of the program at the University of Minnesota, as Bjugstad is slated to be a Golden Gopher next year, but Brian Burke just can’t resist his combination of size, two-way play, and smarts.  Burke also hopes this “size” will soon translate to “truculence.”

23. Nashville Predators (From Buffalo) – Tyler Toffoli, RW (Ottawa – OHL)

A smart, competitive wing with great hands and a solid work ethic, Toffoli fits well with the team David Poile is building in the Music City.  He’s elevated his play throughout the year, and if he gets stronger and improves his defensive zone play the Preds will have a very nice player.  I hope he enjoys country music.

24. Chicago Blackhawks (From Atlanta) – Tyler Pitlick, C (Minnesota State – WCHA)

Pitlick is a rangy, versatile forward who fits the Best Player Available criterion for the Blackhawks, whose depth may suddenly be questioned now that they’ve won their Cup and hit cap trouble.

25. Vancouver Canucks – Riley Sheahen, C (Notre Dame – WCHA)

Vancouver is looking for the Best Forward Available, and that falls to the playmaker with superior vision, Notre Dame’s Riley Sheahen.  He is likely a longer-term project in South Bend, though it could prepare him quite well for life in British Columbua.  The Canucks are content to let him progress at his own pace with last year’s top pick, Jordan Schroeder, in the fold for next year.  Sheahen should improve his skating and consistency to get a better shot at the big leagues.

26. Washington Capitals – Jarred Tinordi, D (US NTDP)

This huge defenseman, who plays a similar snarly game to his father, Mark Tinordi, is the Best Player Available for a Capitals team that looked unbeatable for most of the regular season but folded like a cheap tent in the playoffs.  Tinordi can add to a growing young D corps that includes Mike Green, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner, and he has shown flashes of leadership, having captained what some consider the best US U-18 team in history.

27. Montreal Canadiens – Jaden Schwartz, C (Tri-City – USHL)

The Canadiens have a size problem that is not getting better with this pick, but Schwartz could be the real deal.  Schwartz is an excellent playmaker with highly-praised vision who is willing to get into the dirty zones and make plays.  That tips the scales for the Habs, who get bonus points if they enunciate his name in a way that makes it sound French.  He could be a trade-up target, especially for the hockey sense-crazed New York Islanders.  Hat tip to us for not putting him in the Blues’ slot, facilitating a cheap and easy “Bear Jew” joke.

28. San Jose Sharks – Charlie Coyle, RW (South Shore – EJHL)

Being a BU alum, I wasn’t too thrilled about sending future Terrier (and cousin of Tony Amonte) Charlie Coyle to Silicon Valley, but he is the best fit for them.  Coyle is a strong wing who could develop into a power forward and will get a ton of high-level ice time on a suddenly decimated BU team, which has said goodbye to Colin Wilson, Matt Gilroy, Brandon Yip, Nick Bonino, Kevin Shattenkirk, Colby Cohen, and Vinny Saponari (kicked off the team) in the past 2 years.  The Sharks can allow him to progress on Commonwealth Ave at his own pace…Tony, please don’t hurt us for this.

29. Anaheim Ducks (From Philadelphia) – Jason Zucker, LW (US NTDP)

Having already added Jon Merrill, the Ducks go back to the US U-18 program for his teammate, the lightning fast, smart, and hard-working Jason Zucker.  He has a strong compete level, and if he improves his offensive instincts he could be another Jason Blake.

30. Chicago Blackhawks – Beau Bennett, RW (Penticton – BCHL)

The Blackhawks close out the first round with the brilliant hockey mind of Beau Bennett, who is fast and agile with great offensive instincts.  He’s a bit of a project, but the Hawks can wait, especially with Pitlick in the fold a few picks earlier.

Trends

This concludes the mock draft, but I just wanted to share 2 quick predictions about how this draft will go:

First, the Tyler Myers Effect will be in full swing.  The towering d-man, fresh off his Calder win, could entice some teams to go late-90′s Mike Milbury and take chances on big projectable bodies on the backline.  Forbort, Merrill, Tinordi, and even Gudbranson are great examples of how we could see this playing out.

Second, this is very much a get your guy sort of draft, so expect a lot of maneuvering and a lot of both off the board picks and reaches.  The rankings are so fluid that teams can’t afford to chance that their targeted player will not be available at a later point.

Yesterday at Town Hall, before a “roll back the raises” protest began, the Town of Hempstead voted unanimously to authorize its environmental consultant, Frederick P. Clark Associates, to prepare an alternative zoning plan for the Nassau Coliseum property.

This represents a major reversal for the Town of Hempstead, which has since 2003 refused to meet with the Lighthouse Development Group or Nassau County to discuss their vision for the 77-acre county-owned property, even though they hold final zoning authority over whatever is built there.

The Town of Hempstead credited itself for taking this “unusual step” in an effort to “jump-start the zoning process,” which has stalled in previous months as the Lighthouse Projecthas gone dark and apparently ceased paying its bills to F.P. Clark, as it is required by law to do.

The Town of Hempstead, which appears to be financing this alternative zoning plan itself, outlined three main goals for the plan, which they expect will be finished in the summer of this year:

1. It has to be a mixed-use development.
2. A renovation plan for Nassau Coliseum, to keep the New York Islanders in the Town of Hempstead, must be included.
3. The plan must serve as a model for “responsible” development.

We’ve all heard the comments by now – Kate Murray addressed the Long Island Board of Realtors on Thursday, mentioning the Lighthouse Project more extensively than anyone from the Lighthouse itself has since October.  The Supervisor compared the density to the Upper West Side of Manhattan, and she intimated that, with the inauguration of Ed Mangano as County Executive, there was a new, pro-scaling-down Sheriff in town.  This is a clear indication of the new narrative that is taking hold in 2010, and a precarious point for the Lighthouse negotiations.

Fuzzy Math

One little point – according to demographic data, the Supervisor is playing with some serious fuzzy statistics.  According to the 2000 Census, the Upper West Side (the third most-dense neighborhood in New York City) had 207,699 residents in 2.11 square miles, a density of around 98,000 people per square mile.  The Lighthouse is proposing 2400 residential units in an area roughly .25 square miles.  Assuming 4 residents per unit (that may be an over-estimation), you get 9600 residents and 38,400 residents per square mile, or almost 1/3 the density.*  I didn’t realize the 2 numbers were equal – as those commercials say, THANK YOU KATE MURRAY!

*1 square mile = 640 acres.  Therefore, the 150 acres of proposed development would actually come to .234 square miles.  I rounded for the purpose of calculation.


Political Background

After witnessing the complete no-show at the polls in November, I can’t help but come to one simple conclusion: our movement peaked too early, and I share some blame for that.  In March we (and many connected Republicans) were talking up Kate Murray as a challenger to Tom Suozzi for the County Executive position, since the Republicans’ hold on the Town of Hempstead seemed secure.  Just as the Town of Hempstead became more receptive to the project due to your passion and dedication, they also seemed to want to hold Kate Murray in a seat that now appeared vulnerable.  Ed Mangano, a good, capable, but unknown politician who seemed outside the traditional machine, was nominated, and many in his own party declined to give him a chance.  Kate Murray ended up winning re-election in a landslide, and Ed Mangano rode a wave of anti-incumbent feelings and anger over taxes into the big office in Mineola.

Republicans are united, the Town of Hempstead’s rhetoric is becoming more fierce, and you may have to wonder if the Lighthouse Project and its supporters will pay the price for, in essence, causing Kate Murray to stay in her current job.

Implications Going Forward

Seinfeld first explored the concept of “hand” – meaning the upper hand – in a relationship, and, right now, politicians have all the hand in the Lighthouse negotiations.  This is exactly why I believe the media blackout has been a terrible mistake.  The Lighthouse has stayed silent, allowing the Town of Hempstead to become more sharp in its rhetoric, and causing the support base to fracture under the weight of misinformation and unproductive arguing about other options.  At this point, the Lighthouse has completely lost control of the public debate, and it is hurting the ultimate cause.

At the same time, the Town of Hempstead seems to be out for revenge after the Lighthouse and now-former County Executive Suozzi used them as a pinata for the most part of 2009.  The Lighthouse and Mr. Suozzi criticized Kate Murray and the Town of Hempstead for dragging their feet on the project, even though the Town is not solely responsible for the delays.  This has led to the Town digging in, calling Charles Wang a “bully” to B.D. Gallof and complaining about every little slight.  One source was even upset that Mr. Wang did not call Kate Murray after the election to congratulate her on her victory, and tried to make that symbolic of a greater issue with the man.  The Town’s dislike of Mr. Wang seems personal, and they clearly feel the tables have turned with Ed Mangano in office.

At the same time, Mangano is the first Republican County Executive in decades who did not rise from the traditional Town of Hempstead Republican machine.  He seems less beholden to some of the classic bosses, including Joe “Blow It Out Your Dufflebag” Mondello, and he repeatedly stressed his support for the project in interviews with me and News 12 Interactive (hat tip to the readers who told me about that).  It may be premature for Murray and her cronies to assume the Mangano camp is wholly in support of their new tactics because of the (R) next to his name.

One thing is clear – the political landscape has changed, and some in the Town are promising that this is only the opening shot.  They have promised to examine everything about the project, including the supposedly “sweetheart deal” of the lease that Mr. Suozzi signed with the Lighthouse on October 1.  New times, indeed.

Bottom Line

These are the same stories we have been hearing since October, the last time the Lighthouse and Town are confirmed to have met each other to discuss the project.  It’s clear that size and scope are the main objections to the Town, and even though I wholeheartedly support the project as proposed, I realized a long time ago that there will need to be negotiations if this project ever hopes to become reality.

The sides are far apart, with Town of Hempstead sources discussing a reduction of up to 35%, something that could render the project not worth doing, and sources and other outlets close to Charles Wang floating a number closer to 10%.  Both sides seem to have dug in their heels rather than offering to meet in the middle, which has kept us at this impasse.

We first heard these numbers in October, from my friend B.D. Gallof.  We’re now here, on January 10, talking about the same things, and the Town of Hempstead is still clinging to an argument that was long ago disproven by just about every objective measure.

3 months, and zero progress.  That’s not good for anybody.

At this point, we need to re-visit the mediation option that has previously been offered by John Cameron of the Long Island Regional Planning Council.  Both sides have devolved the debate into a tit-for-tat about who insulted whom, and the focus has gone away from what I believe is an unassailable fact: Long Island desperately needs the new direction the Lighthouse Project can provide.  Maybe Mangano, who promised to be a uniting force after 8 years of the hyper-partisan Suozzi, could best serve the people by laying low and trying to get the two sides to forge a compromise.

The Lighthouse, without the cover of PR and community outreach that allowed it to build such unprecedented levels of support, only has three options in its fight to regain Hand: they can either wait and hope the politicians in Hempstead overplay their hand, openly flirt with other options (Brooklyn chief among them), or give in (the least likely option).

If both sides can’t get past every little slight and comment and work toward a common purpose, the people, who again seem an afterthought in this equation, will lose.

The future we need will be gone.

Long Island will lose.

That is not the ending I want to see to this narrative.

Play time is over – how about people start doing their jobs?

Howdy, I’m pinch-hitting for the Florida bound bastard blogger, B.D. – hope everyone had a Happy Festivus.

Late last night, news broke (from behind a paywall) about a new lease agreement that could give the Islanders control over parking, concession, and other revenues from Nassau Coliseum.

B.D. and I got wind of this earlier in the night, and he pinged me, cryptically saying “Source says Suozzi is working on a new lease with SMG.”  We initially barked up the wrong tree, concerned the outgoing County Executive had gone insane and was attempting to extend the horrific lease agreement that has crippled the New York Islanders and the facility at which they play for decades.  The news has thrown many people off-guard, and Islanders Country is scrambling to figure out what this means for the Lighthouse Project in general, and the team specifically.

I have spoken to some people in the know, and this is what I have so far:

• This in no way shape or form means Charles Wang is abandoning the Lighthouse Project.  It is dangerously misguided to go down that road and assume “just an arena” is now suddenly acceptable.
• It shows, as I have said numerous times, that Mr. Wang is very serious about getting a deal done on Long Island.
• This is the big news: this is not a new lease agreement.  Tom Suozzi compelled a sub-lease between SMG and the New York Islanders/Lighthouse Development Group.

Last things first:

What Exactly Happened

There are 3 main parties involved with Nassau Coliseum: Nassau County, which owns the building, Spectator Management Group (SMG), which manages the facility, and the New York Islanders, who play their home games at the facility.  The lease agreement was originally signed in 1979, and it only covers the County and SMG.  The Islanders play their home games at the facility, and they are entitled to what amounts to financial crumbs.  It is by far the worst lease deal in sports, and it has resulted time and again in the Islanders losing money as a franchise.  It was widely known that SMG would either be bought out or not invited back once the agreement expired, something the Lighthouse confirmed to me in February, given their abysmal handling of the arena.

This move is a bit of political genius because it addresses the money issue without touching the initial contract.  This is a good plan because contracts in the United States are largely considered sacrosanct, and it is very difficult to break them.  In this case, the Islanders/Lighthouse Development Group entered into an agreement with SMG that complements the original document signed with Nassau County.  This allows SMG to relinquish its right to some of the revenue streams, an action that benefits the Islanders financially.  At the same time, it does not subject the agreement to County approval, because the County is not a party to the agreement.  The only issue is for the County Executive to sign off on the deal, which Mr. Suozzi has now done (while he still holds the office).

To make matters even more interesting, this move almost certainly prevents Ed Mangano from canceling the agreement once he takes office.  He would have to compel the Islanders to relinquish their financial right, a move I simply do not see happening.

After reviewing all the information, I think I’ve figured out why SMG signed the agreement: they were likely forced.  Mr. Suozzi probably confronted them with 3 options: condemnation of the lease, a lawsuit for breach of contract, or signing this new sub-lease.  If that happened, it would make sense that SMG would sign the agreement.

Lighthouse Implications

Some believe this bit of news means the Lighthouse Project is abandoned, and that is a misguided line of thinking.  This shows, as I have said all along, that Charles Wang’s first choice – by far – is to get something done on Long Island at the site of the proposed Lighthouse Project.  This agreement frees up revenue streams the New York Islanders never enjoyed, and it will at worst stop the constant bleeding of money the franchise has experienced since Mr. Wang bought the team almost a decade ago.

At the same time, it will likely eliminate a major obstacle to the Lighthouse Project being completed.  SMG, according to the lease agreement, retains the right to manage any new/renovated arena built on the property, and, given the state of the relationship, they were likely to be excluded from the new arena (and the money to be made) once the deal either expired or was bought out.  That could have created a legal headache, but this seems like a win-win.  The Islanders get an expanded revenue stream, and SMG likely retains the ability to participate in a bidding process for the renovated building.

On the other hand, this may – MAY – be clearing the way for a renegotiated project.  I have shown through calculations why there is a Lighthouse Project, and anything built on the site would have to make more money than that which is spent on the arena renovation.  Opening up new revenue streams could be a potential way of accomplishing this.  Since the deadline passed on October 3, this is by far the most substantive action the Lighthouse Development Group has taken to show its commitment to the area, and, given the issues surrounding the project, it could not have come at a better time.

Political Fallout

You can never accuse Tom Suozzi of being a passive politician.  In many instances – such as his election kick-off rally, which was held in front of Republican headquarters – the outgoing County Executive has enjoyed sticking it to his rivals, and this is no exception.  Much like Tom Gulotta rammed through an 11th-hour extension of the SMG lease through 2015 (aiding a company with close ties to Al D’Amato) before ceding his office to Suozzi, our outgoing County Executive had one last trick up his sleeve.  However, I do wonder if this could have been done earlier and was held back in the name of political expediency…

Naturally, Republicans in the Town of Hempstead and Mangano camps are livid, claiming this is an end-around by Suozzi and prevents the incoming administration from having a say in the issue.  While they may not like it, they do not seem to have any legal recourse.  This has occurred in American politics since John Adams‘ infamous appointment of the “Midnight Judges,” an action which led to the landmark Supreme Court Case Marbury v. Madison and the establishment of Judicial Review.  Ed Mangano won the election, and he will take the oath of office January 1, but until that happens Tom Suozzi is the County Executive, and he is entitled to all the duties and benefits of that office.

That isn’t to say that the issue could be completely out of the woods.  This move, and the Lighthouse Project’s past close alignment with Democrats, could harden the incoming and entrenched Republican policy-makers against the proposal.  We’ve also established that other developers have been heavily donating money to Ed Mangano in an apparent attempt to curry favor in case the Lighthouse Project fails.  This move makes it more likely the project will happen, and some operatives may be disappointed.

At the same time, reader Jimmy makes an excellent point: these actions could be part of a campaign to make sure the Lighthouse Project is a top priority for Ed Mangano, who endorsed the project in his interview with me, once he takes office on January 1, 2010.

A Town of Hempstead source had immediate reaction last night, telling B.D. that the move needles Ed Mangano and could possibly signal the death knell for the Lighthouse Project.  If the Lighthouse resumes payments to F.P. Clark, fulfills its legal requirements, and properly finishes the environmental review, we could see a very good end to this process.  At the end of the day, it will require something that has been too often missing from the process: communication.

Bottom Line

This is a bit of good news, but it remains to be seen how it will play out once the Mangano administration takes office.  We now see clearly that Charles Wang wants to make it work (despite those saying for certain that Brooklyn is all but done) right here, on Long Island.  The Lighthouse Project is now more likely to pass than it was as recently as last week.  If nothing else, from an Islanders perspective, this is a nice Christmas present.  Let’s enjoy it for now.

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By now, we’ve all seen it.  On Monday evening, during the Thrashers/Panthers game, Ilya Kovalchuk picked up a loose rebound and knocked it into the net.  Out of frustration, Florida defenseman Keith Ballard swung his stick, intending to break it over the net, but he instead clipped teammate Tomas Vokoun in the head:

Click here to view the embedded video.

I’ve never seen anything like this before (though others have cited a similar incident in the World Championships with Team Slovakia players Tomas Surovy and Jaroslav Halak), and as a former goalie I flinch every time I watch it.  However, when showing my uncle, who made me a hockey fan, this video, he had an interesting reaction: he wondered whether Ballard deserved suspension by the NHL.  His rationale is that a player is responsible for his stick, and the lack of intent should not excuse his actions.

This sounded like an interesting debate, and we did just that this afternoon.  I had the pleasure of discussing this with an esteemed panel of 4 bloggers: Su Ring of KING 5 in Seattle and Hockey Independent, Tony Stabile of Hockey Independent, Anthony Curatolo of Crash the Crease and The Hockey Guys, and Buddy Oakes of the excellent Preds on the Glass web site and radio show.

It was not quite the Simpsons‘ jury of the damned – which included the 1976 Philadelphia Flyers – but we had a fun conversation.  Thanks to Su, Tony, Anthony, and Buddy for their time – and thanks to Google Wave for providing a fun new platform for us to have the conversation.

First, check out these two videos, courtesy of Adrian Dater of the Denver Post, in which Vokoun and Ballard discuss the incident:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Nick: Thanks everyone for participating.  The idea for this kind of a chat came about when I sent my uncle, who hadn’t seen it yet, a video of the Ballard/Vokoun incident, and he asked me a question that I hadn’t thought of: should the NHL suspend Ballard for what he did?

Buddy: I don’t know exactly what the rules are on internal discipline. I’m sure league rules would apply but it is rare that a teammate is involved

Nick: That’s what makes this so bizarre

Su: I watched and watched again. I don’t know if it’s an NHL thing, but I definitely think the team should impose some type of punishment. Accident or not, that was a dangerous thing to happen.

Tony: Unfortunately I don’t think the NHL has any rules about being an idiot, though I do believe they should step in on this one. They have been discussing hits to the head, and this is an easy one to make an example out of.

Buddy: The last time I saw someone take a full swing at another player was Mike Modano hitting Jordin Tootoo with his stick after Tootoo sucker punced Robidas a few years back. Nothing was accessed againstModano and he set the US record for goals later in the game. It was a full double standard for star players issue.

Nick: Right, I remember that game, Buddy – and you contrast that to Chris Simon chopping at Ryan Hollweg 2 years ago, and how swiftly and severely he was punished (and rightfully so).

Tony: True, Nick, but the reason they came down so quickly was the intent Simon had. Ballard was just careless, and I guess in the NHL’s eyes there’s a difference.

Su: That makes it hard to level any kind of punishment here because this was obviously an accident and done out of extreme frustration. But it DOES seem to come under the heading of unsportsmanlike conduct.

Nick: Yes, exactly….I can’t get past one simple fact. Ballard didn’t intend to injure anyone, the contact was not intentional, but he 100% intended to swing the stick. That to me takes it to a new level, when you consider the tried-and-true explanations that you are responsible for your stick. If an accidental high-stick is a penalty, part of me thinks the same standard applies here.

Buddy: If you compare it to a kids’ league, the player would be suspended without question.

Su: I agree, Buddy. And I do think the team should level a punishment – suspension, fine, both. I mean, Ballard did injure Vokoun. I definitely think the team has to set a standard here.

Anthony: I think that Ballard needs to seriously figure out a way to win his team back, whether it’s via media by sticking up for the team and talking more for them, and callig himself out. Should the team honestly suspend him for his actions – that is the biggest question here, no?

Tony: To me the big question I have is this: Should the Panthers level some kind of discipline?

Nick: I’m not sure, Tony – what’s your take?

Tony: I absolutely would. If i’m the Panthers GM and I just watched my defenseman nearly decapitate my starting goaltender and possible prime trading chip at the deadline, for something that stupid, I would be livid. Also, the players themselves, you would like to think, would be pretty upset as well.

Buddy: There’s a discussion on XM right now about it and they are making a big deal about how bad Ballard felt and that Vokoun is in good spirits, so it appears that all they are taking from it is that “someone will learn a lesson”.

Nick: Well, OK….Ryan Hollweg walked away from Simon two-handing him. Does that mean Simon shouldn’t have been suspended? I see that perspective but have trouble agreeing with it

Tony: Agreed. Ovechkin kneed Tim Gleason the other night – Gleason kept playing and Ovechkin is out of the lineup. He still was suspended, though.

Su: If Ballard feels so bad about it, he should have no problem coughing up a fine or sitting out a game to demonstrate his remorse.

Anthony: Maybe a game in the pressbox, Su, sure, but I mean, the damage is one, and I’m sure Ballard feels like garbage about it. How much do you think this affects him amongst teammates as well as his on-ice play? I think this is much bigger then it is seriously playing out ot be

Buddy: It looks like the league is leaving it up to the team and the bottom line is that the team is struggling and they don’t want to sit Ballard. [Ballard and Vokoun] sat beside each other on the plane after the game and made up.

Nick: Interesting – and I see why they would do that. Do we think there comes a point when internal team matters become the league’s problem? I mean we’ll always have instances like when Pronger called out Mike Richards – but this goes beyond that or 2 teammates fighting in practice.

Su: I think it sends the wrong message to let him get away with an “I’m sorry” and a sheepish chuckle. Whether the team is struggling or not, what kind of message does it send to other players who feel just as frustrated as Ballard?

Tony: Definitely, Nick. When a defenseman chops a goalie’s head off I guess that is the cutoff….no pun intended…

Buddy: When I deal with my kids on something serious I expect them to be sorry but I still dish out punishment. One time my older son popped a skateboard up when my younger son was leaning ober to pick it up and it split his forehead open and blood when everywhere. The older son had been dealt with with a spanking before the younger was attended to. Almost the exact same type incident.

Nick: That makes sense – the fact that he is sorry doesn’t mean that he didn’t do something worthy of punishment.

Anthony: Punishment from the team, sure, [but not] the league. This should be out of NHL’s hands.

Tony: In all honesty though, we’re expecting the League to do the right thing here. They can’t even discipline players correctly for offenses that are actually in the book, let alone these grey area types

Anthony: But how can the league punish a team and player when there was no intent and a mistake was made? The only punishment to hand out needs to come from the Panthers, and if Ballard and Vokoun made up, then that is settled. If the team decides to call out Ballard, so be it, but that is up to the GM and Coach as to what to do further with this matter. Give him a game in the box, and then have him just as if nothing happened after that.

Tony: The same way a player gets 4 minutes for drawing blood for lifting another players stick and it hits them in the face. There is no intent but you need to have control of your stick at all times.

Anthony: So, if Steve Mason hit his own player last night after losing in a shootout when he tried to break his stick in anger and frustration, as we see more often than not from players and goalies, you think the league shoud issue punishment for a player hitting his OWN teammate? To set an “example”?

Nick: That’s why I find myself so stuck on this. Ballard didn’t intend to injure anyone. He didn’t intend to hit Vokoun. However, he intended to swing the stick – and I can only imagine the uproar if he had missed an easy shot on the other side of the ice and two-handed Atlanta’s goalie.

Su: The message here is to show the consequences of losing your temper so severely, you nearly cause serious harm to a teammate because you’re not controlling your frustration or paying attention to where you’re swinging your stick.

Buddy: Since it is obvious that the Panthers won’t bench Ballard, what about a fine with the money going to charity?

Anthony: Have him play with his pay going to the players emergency fund – that is punishment. You play for free for 3 games.

Nick: I can get behind that. Since we’re running out of time, I want to throw out 2 questions to the group, if I may…They discussed something interesting during the Vokoun-Ballard pre-game interviews. In the future, do you think an incident like this should be an unsportsmanlike penalty? Something to maybe deter the action?

Anthony: Absolutely. 100%. Illegal use of the stick, unsportsmanlike conduct.

Su: I agree with that, Nick. I also agree with Buddy’s suggestion to impose a fine that goes to charity – maybe one that advocates good sportsmanship.

Tony: Yes, but I think anyone who smashes their stick against the post should be penalized. That would deter anyone from even thinking about it. It shouldn’t take an incident like [Ballard and Vokoun] to happen again for players to be deterred, but at least it’ll be in the back of their head.

Anthony: Agreed, that’s how the LEAGUE should step in. Aggressive stick use [should be a] penalty. This will control any of this in future events.

Buddy: I agree – 2 minutes for any intentional breaking of equipment.

Nick: Well, that’s it – should breaking your stick in anger be a 2 minute unsportsmanlike penalty?

Tony: Absolutely.

Buddy: It should have been then [in the Ballard situation].

Su: I think it should be 4 minutes. That will hopefully make players think twice.

Buddy: 4 would be OK, too

Anthony: The best way to teach a lesson: 2 minutes for illegal or Unsportsmanlike conduct and a 10 minute misconduct for intent of some sort. That’s punishment.

Nick: Interesting – of course you always get in that gray area of how do you judge intent – but I think you may be on to something there, Anthony.

Su: How about this: 4 minutes for intent (aggressive stick smashing or whatever), and any additional penalty is dependent on the situation?

Anthony: The 10 minute misconduct penalty usually gives a player enough tie to realize how retarded they were acting. It usually stops fights from happening further in games. Therefore, a 4 minute double minor and the 10 minute misconduct for agreesive stick abuse plus the 10 minutes for intent to cool off. Then if a team needs to step in if it’s as serious as the ballard situation, 1-2-3 games of playing for free, forefieting your salary to a charity or to the Players’ Emergency Fund.

Nick: It’s true – the baseball example fits in well there. I was at a Yankee game a few years ago, and saw an opposing player ejected from the game for breaking his bat over home plate after striking out. You rarely see it done on the field in baseball.

Su: At a Seattle Thunderbirds game a couple of weekends ago, I saw the Captain of another team sent to the locker room for arguing a 2:00 penalty, then throwing his stick in anger. He did come back for the next period, but it was an unsportsmanlike conduct call.

Anthony: Then this should be copied into the NHL.

Tony: Again, are we expecting too much from the League? This is the same office that didn’t see anything wrong with Mike Richards’ head shot to David Booth, who is still out of the lineup might I add.

Anthony: And not even skating. Even I think Mike Richards should have been shut down for 5 games – and I’m a Flyers die hard. He left his skates!

Tony: Agreed, Anthony.

Nick: Well, that’s why I’m asking you guys instead of Colin Campbell.

Anthony: LOL

Tony: LOL

Su: LOL

Buddy: I think the league and the team both dropped the ball by doing nothing. I did not see anyone calling Toronto when it happened. Do you know if they were involved?

Anthony: No, the league was never brought into this on any level.

Nick: I never heard anything about it…and it’s funny, until my uncle asked me I never jumped to the suspension question either.

Buddy: It would be a good question for Bettman on his show tomorrow afternoon.

Nick: It would [HINT HINT for anyone reading this who can call into the NHL Hour tomorrow]

Nick: So, final quick question since I know you all have to run: You’re in charge of NHL discipline. Do you take action against Ballard, and do you propose a rule to discourage this in the future?

Anthony: No action against Ballard by the NHL since it’s in the books now. However, a rule proposal for this kind of thing to be stopped in the future is a MUST. The Panthers should take action against Ballard at this point. The league should step in and make a rule about it for future actions.

Buddy: The officials should have done something at the time. If there was no specific rule on the books then an unspoirtsmanlike conduct would have been good enough. As was discussed above, damaging equipment in an agressive manner should be on the books if it is not, with a specific penalty to go with it.

Tony: I propose to the rule committee that anyone swinging their stick in anger, frustration etc….shall receive a unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. 3 of such penalities in the same season will result in the league office giving an automatic 1 game suspension each subsequent infraction will follow suit.

Su: I would take a look at this and other recent incidents and work to broaden the “unsportsmanlike conduct” rules in the books and establish tougher penalty ranges. I would also work closely with the teams to help set up guidelines to “unacceptable” behavior.

Nick: I personally would suspend him for a game because he swung the stick on purpose, and I would assess a 2-minute unsportsmanlike penalty for intentional breaking of equipment in the future – with an option for a 10-minute misconduct, or a suspension for repeat offenses, like Tony suggests.

Buddy: The league has basically stuck their head in the sand on this one

Nick: They did…

Tony: How typical of them.

Su: They seem to have their heads in the sand a lot.

Nick: That Down Goes Brown suspension chart was a little too real…

Nick: OK, barring any final statements, thank you all very much, and have a great day!

Great things happen when you put great hockey minds together and talk about things, and I hope we can do more of these.  What do you guys think?

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The New York Islanders have been, for many years, the Rodney Dangerfield of the National Hockey League.  Some people have worried that the franchise “don’t get any respect,” and the constant hit pieces in the press (including that pathetic piece from last year suggesting John Tavares refuse to play for the team if drafted by them) reinforce that.  A short piece appeared in the business section of yesterday’s Newsday and served as the latest salvo in the continuing disrespect of the Islanders (I’d link to it, but their site is being moody, and most of you wouldn’t be able to see it behind the ridiculous paywall anyway).  Other bloggers have had blistering takes on the article, and while I do not like the Newsday piece, I want to take a different tactic.

The article, entitled “Slippery Surface for Islanders,” paints a dire picture of a franchise that is losing value and about which nobody seems to care.  I will say first off that the writer did not present a full picture of the Islanders’ financial situation.  The writer cites a 3%, or $5.6 million, drop in the team’s value in 2009 as compared to 2008.  The team is now valued at $149 million, $46 million less than Charles Wang paid for the franchise in 2000 (in absolute numbers, not counting for inflation), and, as the paper made sure to mention, “third from the bottom” in the league.

The picture is not pretty, but there are pieces left out.  The author does not mention that 14 of the 30 National Hockey League franchises lost value in the past year, largely as a result of the bad economy.  In addition, the author also forgets to mention that, percentage-wise, 7 teams lost more value than the Islanders (including the Colorado Avalanche, whose value plummeted 11% after a disappointing season).

The author then hits all the tired buzzwords that fans of the Islanders are so used to hearing, including the attendance that’s been as low as 6,000 on weekday games.  He also falsely accuses Mr. Wang of threatening to move the Islanders to Kansas City if the Lighthouse Project is not approved.  It’s true that the owner has promised to “explore other options,” but there is not an active threat to move the team to any specific location.

There is also a quote from John Meindl, president of Sportsbrandedmedia, a sports marketing company in Rockville Centre, that hits at the crux of the issue.  Mr. Meindl claimed Long Island lost its love affair with the Islanders shortly after the dynasty in the early 1980′s, saying that, if the Islanders left, “there wouldn’t be a lot of sleepless nights.”

I had a visceral reaction to this at first, but, in all honesty, you can’t blame Mr. Meindl for drawing such a conclusion.  Let’s take a look at a few specific issues:

• 2 weeks ago, an election that will largely determine the fate of the Lighthouse Project was held.  Turnout was pathetically low, the Lighthouse was not a galvanizing issue, and project supporters did not play a key role in any races.
• The New York Islanders are showing signs of life, yet fans still do not go to games.
• Time and again, including the example of the Hartford Whalers, teams have moved, and high-level politicians have not paid for it with their jobs.
• Now that the project has hit a rough patch, people are rightly clamoring for another event, such as a rally.  To be honest, I don’t want to schedule any kind of a rally unless there’s an assurance people will come.
• While Ed Mangano showed a sense of urgency about the Lighthouse Project in my interview with him, we’ve already had two elections where the Lighthouse was not a factor (Greg Peterson couldn’t defeat Tom Suozzi in 05 by opposing it, and Tom Suozzi looks like he won’t be able to keep his job despite supporting it).  If Mr. Mangano takes office, how could he fear losing his job if the project fails?

This is the key question: How can we expect to be given respect if we don’t act in a way that demands it?

I spoke about this on Islanders Independent over the summer; Islanders fans need to understand that their behavior

Bottom Line

If we want to be taken seriously, and if we want the Lighthouse Project to happen, we can’t sit back and wait for people to take us seriously.  We got this process moving along, and we made the Town of Hempstead take notice, because we organized and positively advocated for the project.  We can’t sit back now when there is still so much left to do.

Where can we go from here? Many places.  We can write letters to the Town of Hempstead reminding them of our advocacy for the Lighthouse Project.  We can go to games (if we can, I know times are tough) and take advantage of the team’s ticket promotions.  If we don’t like something that’s written, we should contact the author or the author’s editor to make sure our voices are heard.

I know we exist.  You know we exist.  Now let’s prove it.

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We all love to talk smack about teams we don’t like, though we understand that they don’t completely suck and they aren’t filled with buffoons that do nothing but humiliate themselves.

However, there are some days when, like manna from heaven, you unearth a video so funny, so ridiculous, so embarrassing, that you feel vindicated for all that.

One such video re-surfaced on Friday, courtesy of Puck Daddy.  It starred the 1986 Boston College men’s hockey team (and their fearless goaltender/current Islanders coach, Scott “Flash” Gordon) dancing and rapping the “Beanpot Trot,” in preparation for the final round of the Beanpot tournament (which they lost in a blowout to my alma mater, Boston University).  It was especially satisfying for me, because Boston College and their fans love to maintain that they don’t care about the Beanpot as much as BU does, and here they are singing about how they want to win.

Please check out the video Scott Gordon described to our own B.D. Gallof as “his ‘Dancing with the Stars‘ audition tape,” which a good friend of mine characterized as “something you can’t unwatch.”

It also brought to mind a commercial selected members of the New York Rangers did for Sasson jeans back in 1979.  No editorializing, just watch these:

The original:

Part 2:

All of these are pretty embarrassing, but it made me wonder which one I’d least want to be involved with, and I couldn’t come up with a solid idea.  A team full of hockey players trying to rap in 1986 is pretty embarrassing, but they were trying to be funny, and if Scott Gordon is any indication they have a sense of humor about it.  The jeans commercial is pretty bad, too, but the players were paid to do it…does that soften the blow?

I decided to throw it to a poll….What do you guys think?  With which embarrassing video would you least want to be involved?  I look forward to the results.

Which video is more embarrassing for those involved?(polls)

The Lighthouse Project has hit a rough patch recently, and the war of words between Charles Wang, Tom Suozzi, and Kate Murray has only gotten worse. This has (rightly) made some Isles fans question why we have a Lighthouse in the first place, since it was meant to “save the team.”  Opponents have tried to play both sides against the middle by saying they wanted a new Coliseum but not the rest of the project.  Therefore, I decided to help out, and I crunched the numbers to show why there is a Lighthouse and why it’s financially necessary.

Just the Coliseum in Numbers

We know that the Islanders are choked by the lease with SMG, and they would still lose money if they sold out every game at Nassau Coliseum. This doesn’t mean the Islanders can never be profitable, especially since all “profit” means is taking in more money than you give out. There is a big difference between making money and making enough money to justify the $320 million that Charles. Wang and Scott Rechler want to spend to renovate Nassau Coliseum.

There is a simple calculation in the finance world called Net Present Value (NPV) that can help us understand this. NPV looks at the initial money spent and the money expected to come in to judge whether something is a good investment.

Forbes Business of Hockey 2008 was my guide for this calculation, which I did using this online calculator. According to Forbes, the average profitability for an NHL team in 2007-2008 was $4.7 million. According to their team page, the Vancouver Canucks had an operating income of $12.8 million in 2006-2007 playing in a privately-financed arena. I decided to use this number, guessing that a new arena and a better lease would help make the Islanders one of the more profitable teams in the NHL.

4% is the average rate of inflation, so I decided to use that as the discount rate.

Finally, as mentioned earlier, $320 million is the cost of the renovation.

With that little background, here we go:

Discount Rate: 4%
Life of Project: 30 years
Initial Investment: -$320 (in millions, of course)
Income, Years 1-10: $12.80 (using the Vancouver figure)

NPV: -$216.18

In other words, asking Charles Wang to privately finance just a hockey arena would result in a net loss of over $200 million. I realize nobody is going to feel sorry for a man as rich as Mr. Wang, but none of us would take that deal.

Public Money

Things get far more interesting when you look at using public money for the facility. Sports economist Andrew Zimbalist, who was gracious enough to answer a few questions for me at Let There Be Light(house), pointed out that the average public share of a stadium/arena is 65%. For fun, I took a look at what would happen if that same $320 million renovation was financed with the average public share:

Discount Rate: 4%
Life of Project: 30 years
Initial Investment: -$112 (35% of $320 million)
Income, Years 1-10: $12.80 (using the Vancouver figure)

NPV: -$8.18

Discount Rate: 4%
Life of Project: 30 years
Initial Investment: -$80 (25% of $320 million)
Income, Years 1-10: $12.80 (using the Vancouver figure)

NPV: $23.82

Stand-alone arenas are built because taxpayers shoulder the burden of actually paying while teams rake in profits.  Oh, and by the way….in both of those calculations, if you put in the public share, the taxpayers stand to lose over $100 million, and that assumes the County would make the same money as the team (the real figure is probably far less).

Scaling it Down?

The Lighthouse Project, like every proposal of its kind, is designed to make money for the developer – insert gasps and “duhs” here. However, and this might be surprising for some, the project is not designed to maximize potential profit. There are certain pieces of this, like the arena and the convention center, that are usually built by municipal government because they don’t usually make money. Therefore, the other pieces that will make money (housing and commercial) are meant to support the money-losing pieces.

The Lighthouse may have to make changes; it looks almost inevitable if they want to build in the Town of Hempstead. However, this might not be as simple as cutting a piece here and a piece there and calling it “compromise.” How can we tell if the Lighthouse would even consider a scaled-down option? Well, I bet they would start by doing a calculation like I just did on whatever the new proposal is.

Bottom Line

I am not trying to spin this as a purely altruistic gesture by Charles Wang, because it isn’t. He is a businessman, just like I’m starting my own business right now, and businessmen are not necessarily saints. However, Charles Wang and Scott Rechler are not Santa Claus, either. Since the government is not willing (some would say not able) to provide funds toward refurbishing the Coliseum, the Lighthouse principals took another route. Rather than trying to force taxpayers to shoulder the full burden of an arena (with no path toward getting it back), the Lighthouse principals have proposed a visionary project that, if done right, will help provide the economic engine Long Island sorely needs and spur new investment and industries in a place in desperate need of both. To make things better, they want to invest money and generate tax revenue in an area that currently loses the taxpayers of Nassau County millions of dollars every year.

The Lighthouse is not one man’s fantasy, and it is not a pipe dream. This doesn’t mean people should not still judge the Lighthouse on its benefit to the community, it is just important to keep in mind why we’re here in the first place.

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It’s a pleasure to meet all of you – for those who don’t know, I’m Nick Giglia, and I write full-time over at Let There Be Light(house). I am abnormally fascinated by hockey, architecture, mass transit, urban planning, Information Technology, and politics, and I like to share those fascinations with everyone. I’m glad B.D. asked me to be part of this, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.

For those who do not know, the Lighthouse Project is having its most important public hearing yet, a Re-Zoning Hearing. This will be held tomorrow, all day (from 9:30 AM – 9 PM with 2 hours worth of breaks in the middle) at the John Cranford Adams Playhouse on the campus of Hofstra University. This is the most important hearing the Lighthouse Project will face, and it will determine the future of the New York Islanders and Long Island as a whole.

I have said many times throughout this process that the re-zoning hearing is the ultimate milestone. This is why, as you have all noticed, the petition linked from this site says “Approve the Lighthouse Re-Zoning Application” – everything else is largely in place, and approval of re-zoning will lead to the project becoming reality.

Now, finally, this date is upon us, and save for a brief article in Newsday, we have heard nary a peep from most of the usual suspects. Even the Lighthouse Project itself, whose “Just Build It” rally before the public hearing in August has probably done as much – if not more – than any other action to convince the Town of Hempstead that the support for this project exists across a broad spectrum of citizens. We realize that insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results, and we want the Lighthouse Project to become a reality so our Island can ensure its economic survival for generations to come. Many people have begun to accept the Lighthouse as simply a done deal, an approval waiting to happen.

Not so fast.

There are still negotiations going on behind the scenes, and there have been whispers from Town of Hempstead sources that both sides are not currently communicating in a give-and-take fashion. In a sign of the times, Chris Botta, who has done so much to advance the cause, is now claiming that “NHL Sources” say the Borough of Brooklyn has emerged as a suitor for the Islanders should the October 3 deadline pass without an approved re-zoning application (this space has said for months that this deadline will almost certainly come and go without this certainty, and I have already shared my thoughts on it). Botta’s readers, some of whom seem more loyal to him than the process, have started discussing potential relocation options for the Islanders because they assume that the Lighthouse is simply a dead deal, a disapproval waiting to happen.

This is also wrong. The Lighthouse proposal is very much alive, and we cannot afford either complacency or a crack in our solidarity.

The re-zoning hearing will not be like the other hearings we have seen at the Town level. We have previously been hampered by simple discussion of the Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement (DGEIS) – a document that lays out, according to the New York SEQR process, the type of environmental effects expected from a project such as the Lighthouse, and what will be done to mitigate adverse impacts to the ecosystem. Tomorrow, the format will be much more free-form. Citizens are not asked to comment on any document; they are simply asked to share whether they believe the Lighthouse Project is good for the community or not.

I (and others) have long suspected that the Town of Hempstead had issues with the size and scope of the Lighthouse Project, since it is on a scale unlike anything Long Island has yet seen. There will likely be pointed questions from the Town Board about this, and legitimate issues, such as those covered in Kate Murray‘s letter, will be raised in public, and the Lighthouse will be asked to answer them on the public record. Let me be clear: there is nothing wrong with this. The Lighthouse is the perfect project for Long Island’s future, but that does not mean it should be given a free pass through the layers of approval. All good questions must be answered, all issues must be addressed, and the Town Board must feel comfortable casting a deciding vote in favor of this project.

It is worth noting that re-zoning could be the place where the final scope is changed. I am in favor of the Lighthouse as it is currently proposed, and I sincerely hope the project is approved as it currently stands. However, I also realize that this is a negotiation, and things may change. Think about it: if I am offered a job, and they ask my salary requirements, I should not ask for the bare minimum I would accept. I should go higher, because, if the company says yes, I’m getting more than I would have been comfortable receiving, and, if they say no, I have somewhere to go in the negotiation. This could happen now, or the Town could negotiate size and scope by placing restrictions on certain buildings within the re-zoning. I am interested to see how this turns out.

Meanwhile, the opponents, who are clearly upset the public did not rally to their cause the previous time, are sharpening their knives. As I said previously, our old friend Christine Mullaney from Garden City is raising the specter of litigation to stop the Lighthouse Project in its tracks. Dennis Donnelly, a Trustee of the Village of Garden City, is claiming unfair retail competition (a rich argument for a village in the shadow of the 8th-largest mall in the United States) and who is, stunningly, complaining about the design of the project when final plans are not yet received.

Mr. Donnelly (who, it should be noted, draws his paycheck by defending Garden City businesses at all costs) also disputes the notion that Nassau County, as a mature suburb, needs to grow. This is a dangerous and short-sighted argument that willfully ignores the facts. I have previously discussed how Long Island is falling further and further behind the region and now has a reputation as a place with no business identity and a Can’t-Do Spirit that infects all bold proposals. There are many good parts about Long Island that should be conserved, but we also must re-imagine some old ways of thinking to bring Long Island into the 21st Century. As I’ve said, suburbia is an artificial concept, and that presents a wonderful opportunity to communities who now have the power to decide how they will be suburbia in the face of a changing world.

Ms. Mullaney, Mr. Donnelly, and others like them will be there, fighting for the right to tell their grandchildren how they stood in the way of progress and advocated killing our community through neglect and a willfull ignorance of fact. We cannot allow them to do this. We have to attend the Lighthouse re-zoning hearing so we can tell our grandchildren how Long Island made a bold declaration of how it will be suburbia in the 21st Century thanks in part to our efforts.

Bottom Line

Tomorrow’s hearing will, in many ways, pull back the curtain on negotiations and discussions that have been going on behind the scenes for months, if not years. After trying to read the tea leaves for so long, we may finally know where Kate Murray and the rest of her board stand on this momentous project that will shape the future of Long Island for generations to come.

The opposition is in high dudgeon, angry and bewildered that the cavalry (in the form of organized opposition) did not emerge August 4. They have sharpened their rhetoric, and they will be ready to do what it is those sorts of people do best: obstruct. If turnout is not significant on the supporter side, these backward-thinking people can potentially gain traction and threaten everything we have fought for over the previous years.

We must not let this happen.

I know I have said this before, but it is extremely important that you attend the hearing if it is at all possible. If you cannot, please send a comment indicating your support to the Town’s email address – lighthousecomment@tohmail.org. Our future is too important to risk everyone’s work being squandered now.

Stand up, make your voice heard, and let’s be on the right side of history.

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