The frustration with that model is easy to understand if you’re a fan of team like Anaheim that’s trying to make a late run to the playoffs only to discover that being 10 points out is more like 20 when you can gain only one point at a time due to those above earning loser points.  Especially frustrating to those fans (and likely players in that situation) is the knowledge that those teams ranked higher in the standings actually play for the loser point first and winning second, as Eric Duhatschek found out.  That shouldn’t come as a surprise as they are only doing what makes the most sense.  Duhatschek obtained this quote from Jay Bouwmeester on the situation:

“You always want to win – and you always want to take advantage if there’s an opportunity to score goals,” Bouwmeester said. “Having said that, I think a lot of teams – and people – realize how important all the points are. Ever since the shootout was put in, it’s been a dogfight right at the end of the year. And every year, it’s the same problem, there are all these three-point games.”

Here a couple of graphs to reinforce Bouwmeester’s point on 3 point games.

These graphs show a significant overall trend upward in 3 point games as the season has progressed- with the biggest jump coming after the first of the year as teams try to assess where they will be at the trade deadline.  Interestingly, it’s not the number of overtime games that’s increased (percentage-wise), it’s the shootout games.

A popular alternative being suggested is the “3-2-1 model”.  That format would award 3 points to a team that won in regulation, 2 points for a team that won in overtime or via a shootout, and 1 point for a team that lost beyond regulation.  Pierre Lebrun of ESPN and TSN has been a longtime advocate of this format and wrote a great piece that provided both a history of the discussion and quotes from a few GMs across the league like this one from Steve Yzerman:

“We switched to 4-on-4 overtime years ago which is entertaining, I have no problem with that,” Yzerman said. “The shootout is a roll of the dice, it doesn’t prove who the better team is. I just think, let’s reward teams that win in 60 minutes.”

I do like the “3-2-1 model” better than the current standings formula.  It puts every game on equal footing and rewards winning in regulation the most.  Is that enough?  According to Lebrun, that’s enough of a positive change to make that move for a few GMs, but not enough to make it happen.  As Lebrun noted, one feeling against change is that the “3-2-1 model” would negatively impact the tight races we see today:

“The media used to complain that the regular season didn’t mean anything. Well, now, it means everything,” Holland said. “Every game matters; the standings are so close. Let’s keep the standings compact. Let’s keep the races. These races in incredible. Why change that?”

Lebrun’s argument to that was Anaheim’s attempt to climb the standings late in the year- made impossible due to the 3 point games.  That essentially echo’s the sentiments by players in Duhatschek’s article.  It’s a very good argument, but is that enough?

Additionally, he noted that the standings really wouldn’t be too much different in the “3-2-1 model”.  He’s also correct, however, that if the mindset of players and coaches are successfully changed that could be different.

So we have a new proposed model that should help shift mindsets into a more exciting brand of hockey where games are played to be won, but it could potentially “loosen” the tight standings albeit with no evidence to support that.

One negative aspect of the “3-2-1 model” is that it puts an overtime win in the same category as a shootout win.  Just by looking the quotes above, one can see that the real area of angst is the shootout and not overtime.  If you need any further evidence, look at the term “ROW” we all got introduced to this past offseason.  I think there is one tweak that could be made to that model that would make it much more palatable for some GMs.   If you were to modify the “3-2-1 model” to weigh overtime games the same as a regulation win- essentially taking ROW to the next level and eliminating it as a tiebreaker.  That isolates the “2-1” aspect of the model to just the shootout and reflects the feelings of those like Yzerman who believe the shootout “doesn’t prove who the better team is” while also keeping the hugely popular shootout in the game.

How would that impact the standings?  Much like the original “3-2-1 model”, not greatly.  Most importantly, it doesn’t eliminate the tight races either (again, in a vacuum).  Here’s a snapshot of the standings through today (80 games played for every team):

While there are some ordering differences in many of those individual races, all the races themselves are still just as tight.

Does the “modified 3-2-1 model” bridge the gap between those that favor the current model, those that favor the “3-2-1 model” and those that favor the more extreme “2-0” model?  I don’t know, but it does seem to offer something for everyone.

• Teams do not benefit from playing an extra-tight game in the final five minutes of regulation in order to score a point.  A loss in overtime on more open ice is the same as one in regulation.  That should encourage more “playing to win”- which encourages more exciting hockey.
• Every game is worth the same number of points.
• Teams have a little bit more hope of moving up in the standings.  The elimination of the “loser point” provides the best opportunity for that, but this model provides the next best opportunity.
• Shootouts stay, but are more overtly devalued.  That, combined with more “playing to win”, should provide a more natural lowering of the upward trend in shootouts in the last half of the season.  Additionally, the effect of the shootouts is immediate on the standings and not just in the event of a tie.

Hopefully, this slight variation to the “3-2-1 model” will come up for discussion during the next set of eligible GM meetings.

I’ve attached the spreadsheet I utilized for all calculations if you would like to download.

Downloadable Standings Spreadsheet- Updated with games through 4/5/12

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Firstly, let’s get Suter’s quotes out there again, as he made them to ESPN.com’s Pierre LeBrun:

“I feel it would be more of a distraction than anything,” Suter said of signing now. “We’ve never had a timeline or deadline. We’re just focusing on winning. Everything else will take care of itself.”

Just to be perfectly clear, ESPN.com asked Suter again, was he saying he won’t sign before the trade deadline?

“I don’t see it being a benefit by hurrying up and trying to get something done,” Suter confirmed. “I’m a Nashville Predator until July. I will focus on making my team better.”

LeBrun also had the following to say in the article:

Suter has communicated to Poile a desire to see the GM improve the team before the trade deadline, and Poile is trying to do just that ahead of Feb. 27.

Would that be enough for Suter to sign after the season?

“We have a lot of good players in our room,” Suter said. “Not saying you gotta go out and get a big-name guy — just the right piece.

“I want [to] help our team win the Stanley Cup and being in a place that we can go get more players and the pieces we need to help us win,” Suter added.

Those quotes all focus on the desire to improve the current Predators roster and make every effort to win the Stanley Cup this season.

Funny thing is that’s not the first impression from players within the League or media members across the League.  Their questions all tend to paint the Predators as a team either unwilling or unable to pay Ryan Suter (and eventually Shea Weber) what he would command and truly make every effort to contend for the Stanley Cup.

Look at comments by former Predators captain Kimmo Timonen via ESPN.com’s Craig Custance:

“It’s not easy,” Timonen said. “I’m sure these two guys want to stay in Nashville. I wanted to stay in Nashville, too. Sometimes it comes to money and business and that side of things. I’m sure these guys are talking to the team and trying to see, ‘Is there any way we can work this thing out?’ If not, then you have to move on. It’s a bad part of the business but it has to happen.”

Would you like to see the doubt expressed by the Predators current captain, Shea Weber, via LeBrun?

“I think that’s the hardest part, you look at the past and seeing guys go through your team like Forsberg, Timonen, Hartnell — you go down the list, all you see is guys leaving,” Weber said. “You want to believe him [Poile], they’ve got the right things in mind. If they say they’re going to do it [increase payroll], then they should do it and we’ve got to trust them.”

How about an Eastern Conference GM?  Do you think they are convinced that the Predators will be able to compete at an elite level financially?  Look at this comment in Frank Seravalli’s blog today:

“The consensus among us is that Nashville will be hanging onto him, even if they know the odds are not in their favor of re-signing him,” one Eastern Conference GM told the Daily News on condition of anonymity. “If he does decide to trade him, [David] Poile has the market cornered. There are very few defensemen of Suter’s caliber in the league and Nashville has two of them.

“You have to wonder whether the Predators can continue to trade away their top players for prospects because they can’t afford to pay them.”

How is David Poile supposed to combat that?  This is what he told LeBrun:

“That’s the conversation we’ve been having,” Poile told ESPN.com via phone Friday, a few hours before Suter broke his news. “Those days are past. We have new ownership in place. They’ve made a commitment to me and the players and both Ryan and Shea know that, because of the dollars they’re going to be getting and what we need to do to win that Cup, we’ll be spending what is necessary to contend.”

“I know we’re one of the lowest payrolls this year, but going forward that will no longer be the case,” stressed Poile.

And while Poile doesn’t have to worry about convincing us in the media, it’s plainly obvious that he still has a lot of convincing to do with both Suter and Weber.  It’s also quite clear from the comments of Suter, Weber, and Timonen that players take note of teams constantly letting their core players go to market.

David Poile is correct in that Nashville has new ownership.  That ownership group has done truly remarkable things since they bought the team.  One thing they’ve never done however is spend beyond the midpoint of the cap.  They also aren’t noted as having the deepest pockets among other owners across the League.

Now, Poile and the ownership group have to convince two of their cornerstones that they have the money to sign both of them- that’s the easy part.  More importantly they have to convince those two cornerstones that they have the money to do what it takes to put the Predators in the best possible position, year after year, to compete for the Stanley Cup.

Ryan Suter is trying to tell David Poile and the ownership group that starts with this year’s trade deadline.  If the reports that David Poile has no intention to trade Suter are correct, then he’s starting to understand that trading Ryan Suter prior to the deadline does more to set back this franchise beyond losing one of the top defenseman in the League.  It’s stating a message to every player that Nashville can’t do what it takes to make players believe in Nashville as a team on which they have every chance to win a Cup.  That’s why it would be a mistake to trade Suter.

If Suter walks, he walks.  Get what you can at the draft and move on.  Winning teams do what’s necessary to replace the missing pieces.  Look no further than Pittsburgh and Detroit after Marian Hossa left.  The mentality of worrying too much about players leaving is what the non-contenders do.

David Poile has to stop selling hope and words.  Now he actually needs to start showing commitment.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

This week has seen a flurry of discussion on what to do with Suter (and to a lesser degree, Weber).  Primarily, the focus is on whether Suter or Weber should be traded prior to the deadline.

For me, the answer is simple.  David Poile should keep both Suter and Weber and let this team make its push as far as it goes.  He should do everything he reasonably can to improve the team at the deadline while keeping its core intact.

After the season, if Suter informs Poile that he intends to test the free agent waters and won’t be back, then you move him around the time of the draft.

Why?  It’s pretty simple.  You play to win.  Doing that means you don’t trade your core coming off a season where you advanced in the playoffs and are again pushing to make the playoffs- particularly when you’re only six points out of first in the Western Conference.

David Poile should be very aggressive in shoring up this team to win the Cup this season.  He should go out and make every effort to bring in additional offense and maybe another veteran for the bottom half of the blueline.  He should not rip out the core of this team midseason.

Yesterday, Barry Trotz told Adam Kimelman of NHL.com “…and you see that we’re fighting for first overall in the League almost.  We’re six points out today, but that’s our expectation, to see if we can finish first in the West.”  If David Poile trades Suter or Weber, he’s sending the wrong message to his team.

You often hear coaches talk about players either losing confidence in themselves or needing to play with more confidence.  If Nashville wants to be an attractive destination for players looking to contend, they need to manage their team with the confidence that they are going to do everything within their means to win every season.

Detroit succeeds because they understand that while they could have traded Marian Hossa to the Eastern Conference, they needed him that season to maximize their chances to win then.  They had confidence in their ability to replace Hossa either from within or via free agency and managed with that confidence.  Confidence, like success, starts at the top.

Nashville is entering a period in time where they have one of the best foundations of players when you combine those in the NHL and in the minors while also considering age.  Coinciding with that is the apparent willingness to increase the roster payroll significantly.  Now is the time to show confidence in what you’ve built and show some swagger in your ability to make the necessary changes to do it again next season if Ryan Suter decides to not return in Nashville.

Commitment to winning is more than just acquiring players, hiring coaches, and running a certain style.  Commitment to winning is showing that you are willing to make the hard choices to win now when you have the means.

Show that level of commitment and you might not even have to worry about not having Suter next season, as Nashville will be a place where one wants to play.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

In New Jersey, we have elite forward Zach Parise (42gp, 14G, 23A).  He’s currently signed to a one-year, $6 million contract that will expire at the end of this season.  He’s been a part of their core, but New Jersey has made a significant investment in Ilya Kovulchuk that might make signing Parise to large contract difficult.  Money appears to be a significant issue.  Parise has also said he wants to play for a contender- something Nashville fans have heard before.

In Nashville, we have elite defenseman Ryan Suter.  His current contract ($3.5 million/year) also expires at the end of this season.  He’s ingrained as a part of Nashville’s core along with partner Shea Weber (a RFA at the end of this season).  Since the money for Suter (and Weber) is there and isn’t an issue, the sticking point here appears to be making Suter (and Weber) comfortable that Nashville intends to spend money across the entire roster in order to make every effort to contend for a Cup.  In other words, Suter (sigh, and Weber) wants to play for a contender too and they would like to see some help brought in.

One additional item to consider is that both New Jersey and Nashville are currently in the playoffs and neither will likely want to make a decision to trade their player prior to the end of the season and risk missing the playoffs.  Of course, if they don’t they risk losing them for nothing.

So how do these teams help one another?  A simple swap will not make sense as it would do nothing to help the perceived money issue in New Jersey.  Additionally, as I’ve opined previously, it would appear to be pretty difficult for Nashville to add an elite forward, keep the ones they have, and still sign both Suter and Weber while staying under the cap.

The answer lies in Nashville being willing to part ways with some of their roster players that they are going to have to give raises anyway.  It’s those raises (like to Colin Wilson) that makes fitting an elite forward under the cap hard.  Nashville has a significant number of players beyond Suter and Weber that have expiring contracts this season and will likely be wanted back: Jonathon Blum (RFA), Blake Geoffrion (RFA), Colin Wilson (RFA), Sergei Kostitsyn (RFA), Anders Lindback (RFA), and Jordin Tootoo (UFA) among those that have seen significant time in the NHL.

Nashville would need to utilize their assets and redefine their core to include that elite forward.  That means moving some roster players and some that make a little bit of money.  New Jersey would need to redefine their core to have one less elite forward and redistribute that money into other solid, NHL roster-ready players in order to continue their run to the playoffs this year.

With the basic parameters in mind, what kind of trade might make this a great match?  Truth be told, there’s a pretty fair number of combinations dependent upon where New Jersey would like to focus their rebuilt core (forward, defense, or in goal).  I would expect that Lou would listen to two or three roster-ready players with reasonable contracts (or RFAs).

For example, a Patric Hornqvist (41gp, 12G, 7A, 1yr @ $3.083 million left), Sergei Kostitsyn (36gp, 8G, 11A, RFA) and either a Jonathan Blum or Anders Lindback should get Lou’s attention for an unsigned Parise.  Lou would get two 50+ point players that complement Kovalchuck well (perfectly actually), a solid defenseman likely destined for the top four and a potential starting goalie to replace Brodeur.  The salary swap is about even after the new contracts for the RFA’s but it allows New Jersey to spread that salary across three/four roster players (and New Jersey would need to make additional roster changes to account for the contract limit).  If that deal doesn’t work, build another around the parameters above.

Nashville gets their elite forward while keeping a good stable of forwards (Colin Wilson and Craig Smith) to complement Parise.  They lose some very good roster players.  They also take a major risk by obtaining an unsigned Parise.  That said, if Parise  (or Suter) walks at season’s end, Nashville will have a ton of money to hit the free agency market.  They also have one of the best pipelines of talent on defense and in goal.  They should be able to trust in their ability to fill from within.

It’s bold.  It’s risky.  It also appears to help both teams for this season and seasons beyond.

It’s time for Nashville to “wink” at New Jersey.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

For a Nashville Predators’ fan, what’s not to like?

Travel is much better for the team.  For the fan, there will be far fewer away games that start after 8:30pm CST.

Nashville fans get to see every team in the League at least twice with the home-and-home games.

Divisional playoffs will breed all sorts of rivalries.

The downside is slightly odd rotation of either 5 or 6 games with the other teams in our “conference”.  Nashville’s current conference is also pretty tough at the moment, but all the conferences look pretty tough.

All in all, I’m loving this move.

Interesting DobberHockey Stat

Nashville’s PP unit is currently tied for 10^th in the NHL with Chicago at 19.0%.  That’s pretty impressive, especially for Nashville.

That said, it was just a few weeks ago that I thought they were trending down again.  It seemed to pick back up after Legwand’s return, so I wanted to see Nashville’s forwards have contributed to the power play.

Using DobberHockey’s report generator for Nashville’s Top Power Play forwards, it showed that Nashville forwards have earned 34 PP points.  Of those, 16 (or 47%) points were accumulated by the trio of David Legwand, Craig Smith and Colin Wilson.  No other forward grouping earned more than 3 power play points.  That trio is currently tied for 8^th in the NHL with the Maple Leaf line of Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul and Tyler Bozak.

Now, each of those players has been out there with other forwards, so there are some additional points scored while they were on the ice.

If you look at the total number of power play points earned by Nashville forwards while they were on the ice, the Nashville forwards break out like this:

Just to clarify how this works, let’s consider this scenario:  Craig Smith scores a goal with assists awarded to David Legwand and Shea Weber; Colin Wilson and Ryan Suter were also on the ice.  That’s three points.  Since both Smith and Legwand earned a point, the forward trio of Wilson, Legwand and Smith will be credited with 2 points.  Since Weber also earned a point, the “line” of Weber and Suter will have their “PP point total” increase by 1 point.

So, out of 34 points awarded to Nashville forwards on the power play, David Legwand has been on the ice 76% of the time, Smith 74% of the time, Wilson 71% of the time, etc.

For those curious about the defensemen after my last column: Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are the only defensive pairing that have earned any point on the power play (earning 18 between them).

Stats were pulled from the great fantasy hockey site: DobberHockey.  If you’re playing fantasy hockey, or just looking for a great way to analyze statistics, you can’t find a better way to spend a few bucks than their Frozen Pool membership.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Now, I’ve written several pieces over the years addressing that issue, so it should come as no surprise that I think the Predators do need that forward that can take over the game up front- particularly come playoff time.

That said, there’s always more than one way to skin a cat and the Bruins won the Cup last season without having a star forward (beating a team that beat Nashville with a dominant performance from a forward in Kesler).

While that Bruins team was similar to Nashville, they didn’t depend as much on their top defensive pairing as the Predators did then, and do now.

During the regular season last year, Boston’s top defensive pairing (points-wise) was Zdeno Chara and Johnny Boychuk with 16 points.  Adam McQuaid and Andrew Ference added 12.  Steven Kampfer and Chara had 11.  Ference and Chara had 10.  Dennis Seidenberg and Kampfer added 9, and it goes on and on.

Nashville was vastly different in comparison.  Shea Weber and Ryan Suter produced 78 points when on the ice together.  The next best pairing was Shane O’Brien and Cody Franson with 12.  Jonathon Blum and Kevin Klein produced 11 as did Franson with Francis Bouillon.  Nashville is a team produces offense through their defense and the only pairing that puts points on the board consistently is Weber and Suter.  (As a side note, think about what life would be like now if one of those two left.)

This season is no better.  To this point, Weber and Suter have contributed 32 points and no other combination has produced more than 3 points.

Trotz commented a couple of weeks ago (when Wilson, Smith and Hornqvist were paired together) that he tended to put Weber/Suter out with the Smith line on the road and with the Fisher line at home.  If you look that the performance of those lines, you quickly notice that their effectiveness depends greatly on having Weber and Suter at their back.

Back to Dirk’s analysis of the Predators’ needs, he’s spot on that this team needs a better second pairing- not just defensively, but it’s extremely important to this team’s ability to produce offensively too.  That said, if there’s one area I trust Poile, Trotz, and their staff the most is their ability to reload that defense with talent.  There’s no doubt that there will be a significant increase offensively if one (or two) of Blum, Josi or Ellis can  stabilize that second pairing.

It’s also why I ultimately believe the Predators should pursue a star forward when the fit is right (both culturally and financially) to help the offense when that top pairing isn’t on the ice and when a forward just needs to take over a game.  Bobby Ryan is a pretty good fit in both categories, even if it costs the Predators one of their 7 “top six” forwards.

Stats were pulled from the great fantasy hockey site: DobberHockey.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

I examined all the goalies currently making $6+ million a year in real salary and slotted Pekka Rinne’s new contract into that grouping.  I’m focused on real salary for two reasons.  First, the players themselves will be more focused on the real salary for those years they will most likely play- not the throw-away years designed to lower the cap hit.  Secondly, in Nashville it’s historically been the real dollars paid that matters the most as that is what goes into the calculations for revenue sharing.

Table 1 – Goalies Making $6+ Million a Year

Ranked by Average Salary (Real), Pekka Rinne’s new contract places him second, behind Roberto Luongo, who will average $7.125 million for the first 8 years of his contract (up to the age of 39).  Out of that list, I personally feel that Rinne is consistently better night-after-night than all with the exception of Lundqvist.  Lundqvist is only paid $125,000 less than Rinne and will be due a new contract that will cover several more of his prime years, so his next contract could conceivably be higher.  So, as it pertains to market salary, Rinne’s new contract is very comparable to other goalies of his caliber (and some less-so in my opinion).

What about term?  From strictly an age standpoint, Rinne’s age at the end of his new contract is both comparable to his counterparts and reasonable.  Many elite goaltenders played at a similar level past the age of 36.  So there again, there is nothing outlandish about the contract from that point of view.

While goalie contracts overall tend to be lower in value relative to other positions, the elite goalies can and do still get paid significantly.  Additionally, Nashville has always been a team that builds from the goalie-out.

The Risks

If all of that is true, why did I have my knee-jerk reaction on twitter?

First and foremost is the fact that Nashville has been utilizing a figure near the cap midpoint as their internal budget for player payroll.  The trading of Matthew Lombardi seemed to indicate that the Predators would continue to be budget-conscious as they did not want to be stuck paying $7 million to a player that might never play again (the fear at that time anyway).

Investing $7 million a year, for seven years, in a player that has either a NMC or NTC (and Rinne has both) will leave the Predators wth little in the way of options if Rinne gets seriously injured, or if his skills decline.  The latter would be the most devastating as insurance won’t cover declining skills like an injury.

The Big Three and Beyond

Rinne’s signing obviously caused a stir on Twitter.  Bob McKenzie addressed the signing with several tweets.

While Bob addresses the money necessary to re-sign Ryan Suter as well as signing Shea Weber to a long-term contract, that money has really always been there.

It was his last tweet on the subject I found most interesting.

Maybe biggest story is NSH ownership obviously willing to be a max cap team next season. Closer to bottom in payroll this yr at about $50M

The Predators are a cap-floor team right now with Weber signed to a $7.5 million contract.  Increasing Suter’s salary from $3.5 to $7 million and Rinne’s from $4 to $7million adds $6.5 million to their current payroll- just at or below this year’s midpoint which has been their traditional budget as of late.

So, while the Predators could potentially re-sign all of the big three, the only room left to sign new players or re-sign players under contract today will be roughly equivalent to the increase to next year’s cap.  When you look at the contracts expiring after this season (Blum, Bouillon, Laakso, Lindback, Geoffrion, Tootoo, Wilson and Kostitsyn), that will not be enough.

There are basically two options here for David Poile and the Nashville Predators: either increase the budget beyond the cap midpoint or trade one of Weber or Suter.

If Poile and Predators ownership are to be believed, they have every intention of re-signing all three of Weber, Suter and Rinne.  They also know full well how much that’s going to cost (at least roughly).

Based on those thoughts, Nashville does appear to be raising their budget for next year.  Is it the jump that McKenzie speculated on twitter?  That’s roughly an $8 million increase to the budget- pretty big step given Nashville’s history.  If so, it would allow Nashville to comfortably re-sign the big three, their other free agents, and likely look to add another player in the $4 million range or so (another Mike Fisher as Poile keeps saying).

If the budget increases only half that though, I don’t think there’s room to add “another Mike Fisher”- at least beyond a rental.  Raising the budget only enough to keep the status quo would also seem to hinder their chances at re-signing Weber, Suter, or both.

When you crunch the numbers and add in the speculation regarding Weber’s “show me” stance, McKenzie’s speculative tweet really seems to be the only conclusion where everything works out.   That said, I’d be shocked if that happened.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out myHockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

• Rinne was not at his best against Anaheim in last season’s playoffs.  Playing against Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan will do that.  Much like the game against Tampa, Rinne will need some goal support from his team, in addition to good defense, to win this game.
• Not surprisingly, Anaheim is once again being led by Selanne, Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan.  They started the season hot by winning four of their first five before cooling off and dropping their next three.  Like Nashville though, they’ll be coming into Saturday off a win with theirs coming at Minnesota Thursday night.  If Nashville can shutdown those four, they have a good chance of winning.  Sounds easy, right?
• Kostitsyn is doubtful tonight, but Erat is in.  According to Trotz, Erat will slide right in to Kostitsyn’s place on the Craig Smith and Mike Fisher line.  Erat isn’t quite the playmaker that Kostitsyn, but he’s much better on the puck.  He’s got the wheels to keep up with Smith and Fisher as well, so this line should be fun to watch.
• Will Hornqvist or Bergfors play the entire game next to Colin Wilson and David Legwand?  Let’s all hope so.  While Matt Halischuk is a solid player, Wilson and Legwand seemed so much more dangerous  with either Hornqvist or Bergfors.  Nashville needs a second scoring line to take some pressure off of the Smith and Fisher line.
• Nashville needs to get that power play clicking.  While Anaheim boasts a 86.5% penalty kill unit, it drops down to 72.2% on the road- good for 26th in the league.
• The writing has been on the wall for several weeks now for Cal O’Reilly.  Cal hasn’t been able to stay healthy and the play of Craig Smith quickly made him expendable.  With Erat coming off of injured reserve, the timing became right and David Poile got a good pick for O’Reilly.

I’ll be taking my kids out to the Halloween festivities at Montgomery Bell State Park tonight, so be sure to catch the Mark’s recap of the game.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Finally, the Predators were able to pull together a complete game and play at a level to which their fans have grown accustomed.

• With apologies to Pekka Rinne, the big story last night was Nashville’s offensive spurt.  Right now, that starts with the Craig Smith, Mike Fisher and Sergei Kostitsyn line.  As Cellblock303 tweeted last night, Trotz gave this statement regarding Craig Smith: “He’s driving those lines.  You could say he’s been our best forward.”  It’s a statement I certainly can’t argue with either.  Fisher’s return and insertion between Smith and Kostitsyn has produced a line that can counterattack with speed or play a solid possession game.  The fact that both Fisher and Smith both have noses for the net and Kostitsyn can find either just makes for a great combination for now.
• Pekka Rinne played his normal outstanding game highlighted by his diving, cross-ice glove save against Lecavalier.  Rinne is so good, I worry that he can sometimes be taken for granted.
• The second line really picked up the pace as well, particularly after Halischuk moved down to the fourth line and replaced by Patric Hornqvist mostly and Niclas Bergfors a couple of times.  Both Hornqvist and Bergfors added something to Legwand and Wilson.  They were able to contribute mightily to Nashville’s possession time in the third and presented Legwand with a great scoring chance.  Bergfors looked really good in his 8:00 of ice time, particularly on the third period power play opportunity.  They didn’t score (Hornqvist’s goal came when he was on the fourth line), but they played well and tilted the ice in Nashville’s favor.
• While both played well at times, Matt Halischuk and Jon Blum did have some key mistakes that ended up in the back of the net.  Halischuk’s inability to corral the puck and get it cleared, contributed to him turning the puck over led to Stamkos’ first goal.  Blum had two bad clearing attempts in a row that contributed to the Purcell power play goal.
• Jack Hillen played the best I’ve seen him play last night.  For most of the night, he was paired with Jon Blum who had been moved down to the third pairing.  Hillen played an aggressive and physical game.
• Blum’s demotion resulted in a promotion for Francis Bouillon and he responded with an excellent game.  At some point, Nashville will need Jon Blum to rediscover his game and confidence and move back into the top four.  That said, it has to be a great comfort to the coaching staff to know that there is an option, at least on occasion, when the defense needs adjusting.
• Great night for Nashville in the face-off circle.  Only Mike Fisher won less than half of his draws, and eight of those losses were against Lecavalier (who won 70% of his draws).
• Shots at even strength: 26-24 in favor of Tampa.  That’s much better.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Keys to the Game

• Nashville needs Mike Fisher to hit the ice skating fast, win the puck battles and put pucks on net for the Nashville playmakers.  If Fisher is tentative coming off his shoulder injury, it’s going to affect his ability to win puck battles the most.  Trotz is giving Fisher a lot of help in his first game back by pairing him with Craig Smith and Sergei Kostitsyn (at least from practice).
• If the lines from practice are any indication, Patric Hornqvist is being moved up to the line of David Legwand and Colin Wilson.  It’s time for Hornqvist to make his presence known.  He and Wilson will be expected to win those puck battles for this line.  This line should be able to effectively play a puck possession game and put pucks on net.
• Tonight might be Shea Weber’s first opportunity in a while to show up on the score sheet.  With two forward lines capable of playing a puck possession game and throwing plenty of shots on net, that should open some lanes for the heavy shooting Weber to put a couple on net.
• The Predators’ power play has reverted to typical levels of ineptitude.  While somewhat explainable with the absence of Fisher and Erat, the Predators still had the ability to put out at least one unit capable of maintaining possession as well as having the determination to throw pucks at the net.  Instead, fans have seen the same even strength forward combinations rotated through for the most part.  Tonight should be an opportunity for that predictability to actually pay dividends as those top two lines seem ready made for the power play.
• With the game being in Nashville, Barry Trotz will have last change.  Going up against the physically imposing Sharks, I expect Trotz will continue to heavily protect that third defensive pairing- especially against the Thornton line.  In the past, Trotz would likely have thrown out the Fisher line against Thornton.  It will be interesting to see whether Fisher or Legwand will be given the primary duties of containing the Thornton line.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Rinne pitched a shutout on 33 shots against to earn his third win of the season.  Nashville got goals from Niclas Bergfors and Sergei Kostitsyn with Brian McGratton, Jack Hillen, Craig Smith and Matt Halischuk earning assists in the game.

I liked that…

• Pekka Rinne is proving that if the team in front of him is breathing, he’s going to give a team a chance just about every night.
• Craig Smith and Colin Wilson are playing extremely well right now.  Both are playing with speed and energy.
• Jon Blum’s diving save was a game changer.  With Pekka out of the net, if Blum hadn’t made that save, Calgary would have tied the game at 1 and who knows how it would have turned out then.
• Matt Halischuk is playing a real gritty and smart game right now.
• Great job by Craig Smith in the faceoff dot.

And then, there were these things…

• Predators played a disciplined game, but were still outshot 33-14.  That’s not going to cut it.
• The Predators are having an extremely tough time winning any of the puck battles.  They’re not winning the battles in the offensive zone or in the defensive zone.  This is one the biggest reasons for the shot differential.
• When they actually win one of those puck battles in the offensive zone, it too often gets past a defenseman forcing everyone to tag up.  That just kills any momentum they might have had.
• The penalty kill allowed too many uncontested shots from the players driving or drifting into the slot.
• Trotz still has to hide and protect that third pairing- much more than last season.  Francis Bouillon will help some, but only some.  They miss the physical presence of Shane O’Brien, particularly in winning some of those puck battles.

These Predators have a long ways to go right now.  There are certainly some bright spots, and today’s game against Calgary was much better than their game against Vancouver.  Even so, I don’t expect a lot of wins until they get better without Pekka stealing them.

When Erat and Fisher return that should help.  Both should help win more puck battles if they’re not tentative in returning from injury.  I don’t think Bouillon will help that much on that third pairing, so that might be a significant problem for long time.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

So, as we await the drop of the puck tonight, here are some of my thoughts and predictions for the upcoming season.

1. Pekka Rinne will be re-signed prior to Christmas to a 3 – 4 year deal.
2. The emergence of a line featuring Smithson, Spaling, and Tootoo keeps David Legwand in more of a scoring role.  In that vein, Legwand stays healthy and reaches 62 points.
3. Legwand also gets the other “A”.
4. Craig Smith will do enough early on to convince Trotz and Poile of his place on the team.  Soon after Mike Fisher returns, Cal O’Reilly will be traded.
5. By the end of the year, a line of Colin Wilson, Craig Smith and Patric Hornqvist will be one of the Predators best (and entertaining) lines.  It combines speed, playmaking, grittiness, and shooting skills.  It also has the energy and enthusiasm of being young.
6. Jonathon Blum will win the Calder trophy in come-from-behind fashion once Ryan Ellis joins the second PP unit later in the year and boosts Blum’s offensive numbers.
7. Ryan Suter will not be re-signed prior to the trade deadline.
8. Shea Weber won’t be either.
9. Neither will be traded prior to the end of the season.
10. Weber will win the Norris.
11. Ryan Suter will be in the top five in voting for the Norris as there will be increased attention on him due to his contract status.
12. Rinne places second again for the Vezina this time to Lundqvist.
13. If Radulov’s team is knocked out of the KHL playoffs in time (or doesn’t make the playoffs), there will be a ton of speculation (merited or not) on whether he could and/or would join the Predators this year for the playoff run.
14. Nashville will have a power play in the neighborhood of 16 – 17%.
15. They will make the playoffs and lose in the second round again, this time in seven games.
16. Ryan Suter and Shea Weber will both re-sign prior to July 1st, but for only for 1 – 2 years- primarily due to the expiring CBA.
17. The top four teams in the Central division will be separated by 10 points.  Columbus will not be one of those four, but they will finish no lower than 11th in the West.
18. Zach Parise will be traded by the trade deadline.  It won’t be to Nashville (much to the chagrin to Nashville fans, and to me).
19. The tougher stance on boarding and head shots will be well-received by the players and considered a success by the league.  There will be no back-tracking even though a “star” player will see a 4 game suspension.
20. The off season will be dominated by the discussions regarding the CBA, but there will be a growing undercurrent to increase the punishment for fighting.  It won’t succeed- yet.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Since that time, we’ve all been witness to the fact that it actually went to arbitration.  We’ve also all had the ability to hear the conference call with the media after that hearing. [Audio found over at PredsOnTheGlass]

Since that time, we’ve had the opportunity to read and hear what has followed from all the great Predator blogs (see ThePredatorial’s Ultimate Blogroll for a good list) as well as from the national media.  Many see this as the beginning of the end of Weber’s time in Nashville. Dirk has even proposed that Weber should be traded now.  It has also brought back the discussion of which of the “big 3″ should be kept if the Predators can’t afford them all. [PuckScene.com's Roundtable & Section303.com 303:30 Podcast]

As my two readers have probably noticed, I beat to a different drum at times.  I’ve been reading and listening to everything coming out and trying to get a gut-feel on Weber’s intentions and how this may ultimately play out.  My reaction to everything I’ve been reading (and listening to) was that my thoughts were really out in left field- until I heard Elliotte Friedman’s segment on 104.5 The Zone.  [Audio found at OnTheForeCheck.com]

At this point, I still think that the most important thing for Shea Weber is winning.  I said it last time, Weber and Poile really stressed it in the conference call, and Friedman mentioned it again on 104.5 The Zone.  Essentially, Shea Weber has fired his shot across the bow of the organization and made his intentions known.  The puck is now clearly in Poile’s zone.

The other notion I’ve been kicking around (and Friedman even mentioned this as well- shockingly) is that I’m not so sure that the floor on a long term contract for Weber is now $7.5 million.  That $7.5 million was an arbitration award.  Would Weber take a little less (say $7 million) if he was convinced that Nashville intends to truly attempt to contend?  I think he would (without any inside information beyond the confirmation we heard from Friedman).

Finally, there’s one other nagging thought that prevents me from saying “trade Weber now”.  What would happen if both Suter and Rinne have similar thoughts in regards to the Predators ability to field a true contender?  They are both unrestricted after next season, so there’s no guarantee whatsoever that either of them will sign in Nashville regardless of the amount of money thrown at them.  With Weber, Nashville is guaranteed to have him for at least the next two years if the Predators are willing to pay.

For some people, winning is most important.  What if it matters most to Nashville’s superstars?  What would happen if Nashville lost two, or all three, of their homegrown superstars?  As a fan, what would your reaction be?

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Copyright 2011 Jas Faulkner

The Nashville Predators are trying to have a full changing of the guard in their team’s on-ice leadership.  Step one was completed when Jason Arnott was traded away last off-season and Weber was given the vacant  “C” (and Dumont’s “A” being given to Ryan Suter).  Step two was completed this off-season when Dumont was bought out and the decision was made to not bring back Steve Sullivan.

Steps three, four, and five might prove to be trickiest yet for David Poile.  Those steps would be the re-signing of Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne- the identified core for the Nashville Predators.

First up on that list is Shea Weber.  The date of the arbitration hearing on August 2nd is fast approaching and the last thing mentioned publicly was Weber’s agent stating “we seem to be coming to a bit of a stalemate” [Josh Cooper].  In-and-of-itself, that’s really not a reason to draw any conclusions as negotiations often turn public.

Of course, that’s not the only news fans have heard.  At the beginning of this month, respected sportswriter Andy Strickland tweeted that “[Weber] is interested in signing a short term deal at this time.”  Speculation centered around 2 years as that would exhaust the remaining restricted years for Weber leaving him a UFA at its conclusion.

Nashville fans have heard from the owners and from David Poile for the past couple of seasons that they know what it would take to keep both Weber and Suter and were willing to do it.  They’ve gone so far as to say that both would be Predators for a long time.  So what’s changed, or has anything changed?

According to respected USA Today columnist Kevin Allen [via Section303.com 303:30 podcast], he doesn’t feel that Weber is looking to be the highest paid defenseman in the league and would be reasonable in regards to his salary demands from Nashville.  He also believes that Weber’s desire to stay in Nashville is genuine.  That, combined with the Predators’ repeated statements of being willing to pay Weber’s desired salary, appears to make the speculated desire about having his next contract end as soon as unrestricted free agency becomes possible appear to be over something more than salary.

This morning, Poile is quoted as saying “Would I like to sign Shea to a longer-term contract vs. going to arbitration?  Absolutely.”  [Josh Cooper]  This statement is completely confusing to me.  If term is the issue, then why go through all the pain of an arbitration if you ultimately end up with a one or two year contract anyway?  If money is the issue, then practically every report and/or speculation we’ve read to this point has been off the mark.

The only issue that makes real sense to me would be for Weber to seek flexibility in playing for an organization that truly can contend every year.  If he’s not sold on the Predators ability to do just that (which ownership and management have repeatedly made bold statements to do), then a short term contract gives the Predators the opportunity to build while still ensuring Weber can move on if not.

The catch is that a short term contract likely hinders David Poile’s ability to ice a contending team each year.  It likely does not help negotiations with Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne either.  It’s certainly a public relations nightmare for the Predators given everything they’ve said to this point and the fact that it furthers the perception that Nashville can’t keep their homegrown superstar players.

Here’s the rub though.  Shea Weber’s first duty is to himself and his family.  He also has all the leverage- not only due to Nashville taking him to arbitration, but also because the ownership and management have made him the face of the franchise and have publicly dismissed any notion of Weber and Suter leaving anytime soon.

If you still want to blame Weber for this mess, consider the following:

You’re Shea Weber and you just completed a season where you finished 2nd in voting for the Norris trophy.  Your goaltender finished 2nd and 4th for the Vezina and Hart trophies respectively.  Your defensive partner turned in another fantastic season and the team as a whole was the 3rd best defensive team in the league.  And while you advanced out the first round for the first time, you fell in the second round for the same reasons as the prior season- a poor power play and the lack of scoring from the forwards.

Your general manager is publicly pointing at a lot of potential from young and untested players as the primary means for improving the offense.  And, if the opportunity to get another Mike  Fisher presented itself, the team “will leap into action” (a player that, while sorely needed for an injury depleted team and the perfect Predator, scored a whopping 36pts last season) [Skate of the Union Address exclusively from Buddy Oakes @ PredsOnTheGlass].

As Shea Weber, do you look at that scenario, and knowing that now is the prime time of your career to lead a team to the Cup, think that you have to keep your options open?  I don’t know if Shea has those thoughts, but I can’t blame him if he did and protecting himself if so.

If the Predators come out of this with anything less than a 3 year contract with Weber, they are in trouble.  It would likely cause issues re-signing Suter and Rinne.  It would certainly cause a huge public relations nightmare.  Unfortunately, I think it would be mostly of their own doing and not Weber’s.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

The coaching staff is now likely set assuming the team picks up the option on Peter Horachek.  With the re-signing of Mitch Korn and promotion of Lane Lambert, Poile and Trotz can now turn the majority of their attention to filling out their roster for next season.  (Jeremy Gover has kindly provided a list of the key dates as it pertains to the (re-)signing of players.)

Setting the Stage…

According to CapGeek, Nashville has $40,837,500 in cap dollars committed to 17 players (10 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders).  While they have $21,562,500 of cap money to spend, Nashville traditionally stays below the midpoint.  Since that’s done for the purpose of obtaining the maximum amount of revenue sharing possible, it’s the real dollars that matter and not the cap hits as they budget toward that midpoint.

Turning again to CapGeek, Nashville will be spending $41,550,000 in real money for those 17 players (which includes Matt Lombardi and Francis Boullion whether they end up playing or not).  If the cap moves to $62.4 million as expected, that will produce a midpoint of $54.4 million giving David Poile $12,850,000 available to him in order to stay under the midpoint.  Actually, he’ll have a little less in order to have room for call-ups and moves around the trade deadline.  Let’s give him an even $11 million for the offseason then.

The Roster…

Here are those 17 players that are under contract for next season:

Forwards: Martin Erat, David Legwand, Mike Fisher, J.P. Dumont, Matthew Lombardi, Patric Hornqvist, Colin Wilson, Jordin Tootoo, Blake Geoffrion, Jerred Smithson

Defensemen: Ryan Suter, Francis Bouillon, Kevin Klein, Jonathon Blum, Cody Franson

Goaltenders: Pekka Rinne, Anders Lindback

The Decisions…

On the surface, $11 million for 4 – 5 players doesn’t seem so bad.  However, the salary for Norris trophy-finalist Shea Weber has to come out of that.  There’s also decisions to be made on several key contributors from last season: Joel Ward, Sergei Kostitsyn, Nick Spaling, Shane O’Brien, Marcel Goc, Cal O’Reilly, Matt Halischuk and Steve Sullivan.  Finally, of course, there’s also that never-ending quest to boost the offense even further.

Re-signing Shea Weber will be at the top of David Poile’s offseason to-do list.  At the end of the day, I think we see something like a 5-year contract breaking out at $5, $6, $7, $7, and $7 million for a $6.4 million cap hit.  That lower initial salary gives Poile room to absorb the boost to Erat’s salary this season as well as the potential having to weather the injuries to Lombardi and Bouillon further.  It’s not the contract I’d like to see, but it’s what I expect.

That contract would leave David Poile with roughly $6 million for another bottom-pairing defenseman (free agent or Milwaukee promotion), a top six forward, and a couple forwards for the bottom six.

Unfortunately for Shane O’Brien, Blum’s play pushed him down to the bottom pairing at the end of the season and David Poile isn’t going to pay what O’Brien will command in that slot.  Barring an unexpected trade of one of the top four, I expect Shane O’Brien to test the market and Poile to either promote from within or bring in a veteran making right at $1 million.  That leaves $5 million for three, maybe four, forwards.  Which forwards though?

Focusing strictly on their own free agents at the moment, I don’t think you could put Steve Sullivan ahead of any other forward on that list at the moment.  I also don’t think you risk embarrassing or angering Sullivan with some type of low-ball offer.  Hopefully there’s a spot in the organization for Sullivan off the ice and he would be agreeable to that move.  I just don’t see a scenario where Steve Sullivan is on the ice for the Nashville Predators next season outside of a significant movement of personnel.

I also don’t think that Matt Halischuk has done enough at this point to guarantee a full-time NHL roster spot.  Dropping him from the list, that leaves $5 million for a maximum of four roster spots but a better chance of only three spots.  If more than a couple of Goc, O’Reilly or Ward walk, Halischuk could come back into the Predator’s NHL picture.

Joel Ward, Sergei Kostitsyn, Nick Spaling and Marcel Goc likely did the most to justify a decent raise.  O’Reilly has youth and offensive potential on his side.  Ward made $1.5 million last year, while the none of the others topped $775,000.

Would Kostitsyn and Ward both come back for $2 million and either Goc or Spaling for $1 million?  If Weber demands more than $5 million for that first year, it’ll get even more interesting.

The Future…

In Nashville, you can’t just look at the upcoming offseason.  You have to look at the next several to make sure things “fit” the budget structure.  The future for Nashville primarily revolves around Pekka Rinne and Ryan Suter as both are entering the last year of their contracts.  Keeping our focus on the real dollars and not cap hit, Suter will definitely command a significant raise if he’s re-signed.  Rinne, however, will be making $4 million for the upcoming season.  There are not too many teams that look to put $5 – $6 million in one goalie any longer.  While I expect Nashville to be one of few that do, jumping from $4 to $5 million will not be quite the leap that Suter’s new contract would bring.

Additionally, next season will see Nashville recoup $2 million in real money as the actual salary paid to Erat, Legwand and Mike Fisher will drop by that much.  They’ll recoup an additional $4 million with the expiration of J.P. Dumont’s contract as well.

The Rumored Available (Potential Trades)…

Right now, there are significant forwards that are rumored to be available if Poile decides to look in that direction.  Names like Zach Parise and Jeff Carter have been bandied about all over the place (although not necessarily in the same breath as Nashville).

While a line featuring Jeff Carter and Patric Hornqvist whets the appetite, those type of players would require real assets in return- like some combination of Colin Wilson, Cody Franson, or maybe even both of Pierre Lebrun’s twins (congrats Pierre!).  That’s a high cost and a significant departure from Nashville’s management team to this point.  And, while Wilson and Franson might be a good starting point in obtaining a player like a Jeff Carter for the Predator’s trade partner, the two don’t move much salary out of Nashville to make room for a contract like Carter’s to fit properly.

I also don’t think you’ll see Suter as part of the discussion unless he just doesn’t want to come back to Nashville or wants more than Weber.  Nashville will build from the goal out for the foreseeable future.  You don’t jeopardize that recipe by altering the fundamental ingredients like that.

If the ownership group ever subscribes to the theory of teams having a “window” to win a Cup, Nashville could really maximize that window if they so desire.  With the roster in its current form, and what’s yet to come with Suter and Rinne, it would require the ownership group to exceed the midpoint for that type of endeavor, or find a way to move a contract or two like Martin Erat or J.P. Dumont.

Right now, there’s no indication the time is right for that.  It’ll be interesting if that ever happens.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

2010 – 2011: A Season to Remember

The Predators and their fans will always remember this season as a season of growth.

The fans, and we in the media, were able to witness a team young in both history and players advance a round in the playoffs for the first time.  We were all able to witness the team not only win in hostile territory consistently, but to do so by winning in overtime for the first and second time in their playoff history.

Many players endeared themselves in the hearts of Nashville fans as well as fans across the NHL for their clutch and gritty play.  The world got to see why Pekka Rinne, Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are elite players.  The world also got to see the heart and effort put forth from the top of the order like David Legwand, Joel Ward, and Mike Fisher down to the third and fourth lines like Jerred Smithson, Jordin Tootoo, and Nick Spaling.

For the players and coaches, their hard work and effort were rewarded with the fans showing their appreciation after the final handshake.

On the business side, this was the first year for new CEO Jeff Cogen and COO Sean Henry.  Dirk has done an excellent job detailing the business successes for the Predators this season.  It’s a remarkable turnaround to the trends, and it occurred during a time when the country’s economy is still reeling.

Many fans around the league will mock the Predator fans, the city, the market, and the successes we celebrate because they can’t understand what the big deal is about winning a playoff series or the attendance growth we’ve seen this season.  They won’t understand what the Predator fan has had to endure over the years.  They don’t understand what it means to not only go through the trials and tribulations of an expansion team, but an expansion team in a non-traditional market.

There are times that I pity those fans that love the storied franchises.  A Nashville fan has a special bond with their team that most NHL fans don’t get to have.  We’ve witnessed our team being born, gone through the growing pains with the team and are now (hopefully) seeing the team ready to flourish.

Work to do for 2011 – 2012

While it was a season of growth, it ended with some lingering feelings of what could have been and a lack of satisfaction.  That’s a good thing.

The series against Vancouver felt like it was there for the taking as Vancouver consistently struggled to score against Nashville.  If it were not for Ryan Kesler, Vancouver likely would have lost.  Kesler was the ultimate “difference maker” in a series where both teams played great in net and great defensively.  Contributing to Kesler’s ability to be the difference in the series, however, was Nashville’s inability to consistently generate offense 5-on-5 and, more importantly, in power play situations.

David Poile and Barry Trotz go into another offseason seeking to add offense and improve the power play.  Next week we’ll look further what lies ahead from a personnel standpoint for the Predators.

Ken Campbell (The Hockey News) Skeptical About Nashville

Finally, I’ve got to give my $0.02 regarding Ken Campbell’s recent article in the printed edition of The Hockey News.

All of us in the media today have an agenda at some level that comes through in our opinion pieces.  Most of us strive for integrity in our work and try not to twist facts and statistics when they so obviously do not support our opinion.  When we make the occasional mistake in our efforts, we attempt to be quick to own up to those mistakes.

Unfortunately, however, there are some in the media that are so focused on their agenda that they put aside any integrity and ethics to both push that agenda and pander to the worst in people.  Ken Campbell’s last article is not-so-shining example of that.

Fortunately, in the age of new media, for every writer like Ken Campbell that tries to purposely deceive and misguide his readers, there are many other excellent sources available.

And for those that want the real picture of the state of hockey in Nashville, read the Nashville bloggers and local beat writers.  They are not hard to find as the Predators have embraced the blogging community and have credentialed many.  They obviously have an agenda of wanting to see Nashville succeed, but they also tell it like it is.  If Nashville starts to decline, no one will be quicker to chronicle the situation and offer reports from the management, players and coaches of the Predators.

Those guys and ladies are on the ground practically every day to bring the news to you and, like Paul McCann says, Ken Campbell isn’t.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games as well as great insights on the Predators and the NHL, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Yes, the Canucks embellished a couple of calls in game 3 and were able to score two goals on those two calls.  Yes, the officials missed a rather obvious Too Many Men call.  That’s unfortunate.  It’s unfortunate that this game was so affected by gamesmanship.  It’s unfortunate for Predator fans that another really good game by Pekka Rinne resulted in a loss.

However, Shea Weber has it right.  The Predators were not the better team on that night.  They were outshot, outchanced, outhit, out-everything for the most part.  They did nothing with their own power play opportunities.  Outside of the aggressive kill that resulted in Legwand’s shorthanded goal, their penalty kill played a very passive game.  That largely does not work for Nashville- especially against teams like Anaheim and Vancouver that employ a lot of movement and execute screens well.

In short, the Predators put themselves in this hole, not Vancouver’s gamesmanship or missed calls by the officials.

This series is up for grabs to the team that wants it the most.  For all the offensive skill that Vancouver has, Nashville’s defensive skills have been up to the task.  Both teams have looked incredibly beatable regardless of the ice or city in which the game is played.

When the Predators want to, they are good enough to make gamesmanship and missed calls moot.

Tonight, we will all see how much “want-to” they have.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Previewing Nashville vs. Vancouver

At 8pm CDT, the puck will drop on the first Stanley Cup semifinal series in Nashville history.  Nashville is coming off a strong showing against the Anaheim Ducks and will now face the top seeded Vancouver Canucks.

There are some similarities between the Canucks and Ducks.  Both teams feature two extremely talented top two lines and two incredibly good power play units (both roughly 24% conversion rate during the regular season).  Both teams got about 29% of their goal production from the power play during the regular season.

Where Anaheim and Vancouver are very much different is their defense.  While Vancouver does not have any blueliner that approaches the level of Shea Weber or Ryan Suter, they do have a very solid group from one to six.  Nashville’s top six, however, proved that they are up to the challenge of facing two very dangerous lines in the Anaheim series at even strength.

One final difference from the Anaheim series is that Vancouver can put their own Vezina-nominated goaltender between the pipes.  Like Nashville’s Pekka Rinne, however, Roberto Luongo has a lot of questions to answer after a subpar series against Chicago.

While the +/- stat is somewhat dubious, it is pretty good at indicating trends.  In the Anaheim series, Nashville only had three minus players (only one of which was  a defenseman).  12 of the 23 players that Anaheim iced in their series with Nashville were minus players including key players like Selanne, Visnovsky, Sbisa, Koivu, and Blake.  To give up as many goals as Nashville did, those are very telling statistics at how strong Nashville was at even strength.  Couple that with the fact that 14 of 21 players iced by Vancouver were minus players in the Chicago series, including key players like both Sedins, Salo, Edler and Ehroff, I feel they can limit Vancouver’s top lines at even strength (and the regular season series between Nashville and Vancouver also bears that out).

Here are the keys for a Nashville win:

• ·       Limit Vancouver’s power play opportunities.  That means you, Shane O’Brien.  I think the call-up of Teemu Laakso indicates that Barry Trotz is hedging his bets in two ways: the option to dress 7 defensemen with Laakso taking PK duty when O’Brien is in the box and the option of benching O’Brien outright if he continues to hurt the team.
• ·       Take advantage of any perceived mental and/or physical fatigue on the part of Vancouver.  The first step is to earn at least a split of the first two games in Vancouver.  The second aspect of that is to play the typical Nashville game of relentless pressure from the forecheck.  If Nashville brings it hard every game, I like their chances with the rest they had.
• ·       Vancouver will attempt to take advantage of O’Brien, Nashville must take advantage of Hamhuis.  Dan Hamhuis is a very good defenseman.  He does have some flaws however, namely his propensity to turn the puck over when being forechecked hard.  Like they did earlier this year, Nashville must force Hamhuis to turn the puck over and capitalize on it.
• ·       Lean on Shea Weber and Ryan Suter.  Weber and Suter were leaned on to hold Anaheim in check at even strength.  They will need to follow up that great job with another great job against the Sedins and the Kesler line.
• ·       Finally, Pekka Rinne must play like the Vezina nominee he is.  Rinne was not at his best in the Anaheim series.  To beat Vancouver, a more balanced team than Anaheim, he will have to be.  Rinne tends to be better when he’s more involved (read: seeing a lot of shots come his way).  There’s a pretty good chance he’ll see more than he did against Anaheim.  If Nashville has any chance, he’ll have to improve that save percentage.

With Nashville’s play at even strength, their ability to stay disciplined, Vancouver coming off a tough series with little rest, and the fact that I believe that Rinne will round back into form, I think Nashville wins this series in six games.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

With the series tied at two games each, tonight essentially starts a best of three with Anaheim again having the home series advantage.  They also get Bobby Ryan back in the lineup for tonight.

How We Got Here…

On Wednesday night, the Predators had an excellent opportunity to take a commanding lead in the series completely wasted by bad play all over the ice.

Coach Trotz explicitly called out his defensemen in the postgame press conference, but the Predators were bad up and down the lineup.

Pekka Rinne, in particular, had a very poor game.  In truth, Rinne has really only had one good game- game one in Anaheim.

Nashville has had huge problems handling the Anaheim power play.  Anaheim certainly has a very potent power play, but they are converting at a rate 10% better than they did in the regular season- all against a team that was supposed to be the fifth best in the league at killing penalties.

Nashville has been fortunate that their own power play is producing at about an 8% better rate than the regular season.  Their recent ability to score goals have helped offset poor penalty killing and goaltending.  That, however, is not their game and continuing to count on that is foolhardy for a defense-first team.

If Nashville can’t get a handle on themselves (looking at you Shane O’Brien), then their poor penalty killing will do them in, if Pekka Rinne doesn’t do that first.

To keep from coming back to Nashville and playing for their playoff lives on Easter Sunday, Rinne must turn it around.  Trotz, Weber, and Suter must keep this team disciplined, calm, focused and resilient.

We’ll all see what happens tonight.

The Topic that Won’t Go Away… Supplemental Discipline

When I write a Friday Face-Offs column, I typically pull up a prior column in order to maintain my formatting and links at the bottom.  Then I can just replace the various sections with the new work.

Funnily enough, I just happened to pull up the 3/25/2011 column.  That’s the one where I actually lauded the efforts of League in their handling of supplemental discipline in regards to Matt Cooke (ok, I went on to raise further concerns and questions, but I started off with kudos and that counts).

I ended the praise with the following statement:

One would hope that this sets a precedent, but I doubt it.

Suspending Torres for four games at the end of the regular season/beginning of the playoffs likely made many believe that the NHL might be heading in the right direction.  It might have even inspired many to believe that there will be real results from the GM meetings next season.

The NHL follows that up by suspending Bobby Ryan two games for “stomping” on Jonathon Blum’s foot.  That’s fine.  So far so good.

Then Raffi Torres returns from suspension, and in his first game back, lays out Brent Seabrook.

That’s an easy call right?  Blindside or lateral hit?  Most definitely.  Was the head targeted and/or the principal point of contact?  Absolutely.  Repeat offender?  First game back from a four game suspension seems to point to “yes”.  GMs, you concur?  While sounding dangerously like a toothpaste commercial, 8 out of 9 GMs agree.

Colin Campbell?  Nope.  The reasoning was that the rule allows for players to be decapitated as long as it’s behind the net- affectionately called “Death Valley”.

As proof of the rule allowing such idiocy, I present it here in its full glory:

Rule 48 – Illegal Check to the Head

48.1 Illegal Check to the Head – A lateral or blind side hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and/or the principal point of contact is not permitted.

48.2 Minor Penalty – There is no provision for a minor penaltyfor this rule.

48.3 Major Penalty – For a violation of this rule, a major penalty shall be assessed (see 48.4).

48.4 Game Misconduct – An automatic game misconduct penalty shall be assessed whenever a major penalty is assessed under this rule.

48.5 Match Penalty – The Referee, at his discretion, may assess a match penalty if, in his judgment, the player attempted to or deliberately injured his opponent with an illegal check to the head.

48.6 Fines and Suspensions – Any player who incurs a total of two (2) game misconducts under this rule, in either regular League or playoff games, shall be suspended automatically for the next game his team plays. For each subsequent game misconduct penalty the automatic suspension shall be increased by one game.

If deemed appropriate, supplementary discipline can be applied by the Commissioner at his discretion  (refer to Rule28).

Oh, wait a minute.  I’m sorry, there’s no mention of a “Death Valley” in there.  Oh that’s right.  It’s not in the rule.  It’s in the rule.

As provided by Bob McKenzie,

That’s my view, but when NHL general managers created Rule 48 a year ago March, they allowed the area behind the net to be a “hitting area” and players need to be more aware than, say, in the neutral zone.

In March of 2010, a DVD went to players, coaches, and general managers saying exactly that, that there was far more latitude given on hits behind the net on unsuspecting players. In other words, as one NHL GM told me tonight, a hit behind the net is viewed more like a north-south hit than an east-west neutral zone hit.

Amazingly enough, after a season full of these type of hits, no one ever trotted that out.

So, for all those folks that think that next year will be different, don’t hold your breath.  The NHL needs all the TV viewers they can get and can’t afford to have you pass out.

And today, Colin Campbell decides to whine about how hard and thankless his job is.  Campbell’s right about one thing, his is a thankless job.  It always will be though, so whining about it does no good.  Campbell needs to just keep his mouth shut and actually dispense supplementary discipline in accordance with the written rules.  That’s a novel thought.

David Singleton

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

They should be confident in their game plans.  They feel that if they limit Anaheim’s power play opportunities, they are better than Anaheim.  After two games, there’s no reason to believe otherwise.

They should be confident in their effort on the ice.  After falling behind 2 – 0 in game two, they kept coming and had a chance to force overtime.

They should be confident in their ability to limit Anaheim’s RPG line at even strength.  Throwing out Bobby Ryan’s empty net goal, Anaheim’s RPG line has been limited to two goals over the two games (both in game 2).  Even with Carlyle having last change allowing him to avoid Weber and Suter, Klein and Blum have done a very good job with that line.

They should be confident in their new-found prowess on the power play.  They are doing a great job of moving around to the open spots on the ice and keeping someone in front of the goalie.

They should be confident in the approach of their captain, leadership group and coaches.  They seem to be taking a very business-like approach to their accomplishments in this series.  That speaks to the maturity of the team and the direction set down by their leaders.

Their confidence have got them this far.

Now they need to be confident in their ability to improve their discipline on the ice.  They need to be confident in their ability to stick to their plans and continue to play their game regardless of the score or the number of games won or lost.  They need to be confident in their ability to view the absence of Bobby Ryan over the next two games as a challenge of having to face a new and unpracticed-for strategy from Anaheim as opposed to seeing the next two games as gimmes.

I have every confidence in them.

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

This is coming from someone who wrote a very critical article three weeks ago that questioned whether David Poile and Barry Trotz are doing as good a job as typically espoused by the media.  Of course, that’s not enough to convince you- but I will.

There are certainly many deserving candidates this year- like there are typically every year.  It’s only fair to examine each of those coaches too.

Dan Bylsma of the Pittsburgh Penguins is a very worthy and popular candidate.  Bylsma has been able to guide a Penguins team that is currently missing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to 106pts and the 4th seed.  That’s incredibly impressive.  In any other year, Bylsma would be my choice for the Adams trophy.

Alain Vigneault of the Vancouver Canucks is another popular choice.  Vancouver has had to absorb a similar number of injuries as Pittsburgh.  Like Pittsburgh, the vast majority of those injuries were focused to one position (defensemen) and were somewhat staggered. Vigneault did an impressive job utilizing a very potent offense and Roberto Luongo to a fantastic year.  Their impressive depth on the blueline also helped to mitigate the injuries.  As impressive as Vancouver has been- they were expected to be.

Dave Tippet in Phoenix has done another remarkable job in Phoenix.  He’s guided that team back into the playoffs in the tough Western Conference as the 6th seed.

As remarkable a job as the coaches above have done, Barry Trotz has turned in one of the best coaching jobs of his career this year.

Through the first 73-ish games of the year, the Predators have lost the most man-games to injury of any other playoff team.

The Predators are a team that consists of three elite players (Weber, Suter, Rinne) surrounded by a lot of solid to good players.  They play a responsible, defense-first game that suits that core of elite players.  Their centers are all very good two-way players who are better defensively than they are offensively.  Offense has always been created from hard forechecking, scoring by committee, and capitalizing on the other team’s mistakes.

That sounds like a workable plan when Weber, Suter and Rinne are leading the charge. 

Does it sound like a workable plan when Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne both miss double digit games due to injury?  What if I tell you that for the forward position with the most defensive responsibility- center, you’ll only have one player exceed 51 games played (at 64 games)?  You will lose your number one center in the second game of the season for the year.  You will lose a top-four defensemen and be forced to play a rookie that’s played 23 games at the NHL level in your top four going into the playoffs.  Your elite goaltender will miss two long stretches of games and you’ll play a rookie goalie in his stead.  And just so it’s not all focused on the defensive side of things, just about every top six forward will see some significant missed time due to injury.

That’s what Barry Trotz has bad to absorb this year.  He not only absorbed those injuries, he guided his team to the 5th seed in the extremely tough Western Conference. 

Missing guys like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin is huge, but at least Bylsma had that kind of talent for half a season.  Nashville’s top center, Lombardi, has missed 80 games.  Legwand has missed 18, Goc has missed 31, and Cal O’Reilly has missed 44.  Only David Legwand has returned from that group.  None of those guys rise to level of a Crosby or Malkin.

From the net out, Rinne has missed 11 games, Suter has missed 12, and Francis Bouillon has missed 38.  I believe Bouillon is unlikely to return this year.  Rookies Anders Lindback and Jonathan Blum have had to step up for those players in order for the Predators to remain one of the best defensive teams in the league.

Offense has never been a strong point for the Nashville Predators, including years past.  Nashville’s power play is a woeful 26th in the league at 15.2%.  Injuries to Martin Erat (18 games), Steve Sullivan (38 games), Kostitsyn playing through a broken toe for the first 20 games of the season, Dumont’s decline in production, and the center injuries above certainly haven’t helped that.  You will not find anyone that has been as critical of Barry Trotz and his staff regarding their inability over the years to ice an above average power play, but there’s something to be said of the success the team has achieved despite those difficulties.

It would be nice if Nashville had at one elite forward on the roster.  As good a job as Vigneault has done, he’s also had the benefit of four forwards that would leading Nashville in scoring- the Sedins, Kesler, and Sameulsson.  Daniel Sedin has more than twice as many points as any Predator player and Henrik Sedin almost has twice as many as well.  He’s also had his top netminder, Luongo, all season.

Despite all the injuries and perceived lack of talent, Barry Trotz guided his team to 99 points and the 5th seed in the conference.  Barry Trotz has not yet led this team to postseason success.  The Jack Adams award, however, is not based upon postseason success.  It’s given to the coach that’s done the best coaching job in the regular season.

No coach has had to endure as much, change their strategy as much, or be forced to lean on pure rookies as much as Barry Trotz.  Barry Trotz not only endured, he achieved.  His team achieved a 5th seed and looks ready to give their playoff opponent(s) all they want.

He simply did the best job of any coach this year.

The Wild, Wild West

Mostly just two games left for the teams out West.  The Predators can technically finish anywhere from 4th to 9th in the standings.

My best guess?

Phoenix will not pass Nashville.  They have the same amount of points and regulation/OT wins, but have less wins overall.  They also have to play San Jose twice.  Even if Detroit loses in regulation tonight (which San Jose will know before taking the ice tonight), San Jose needs one win to guarantee that 2nd seed.

While L.A. has a one point advantage in the standing right now, they have their hands full with a back-to-back against an Anaheim team still needing a win to guarantee a playoff spot.  Without Kopitar, I can see L.A. dropping both to the hard charging Ducks (while gaining one point).

Chicago will face two contests against a Detroit team that will be without Zetterberg for both games.  I can definitely see them getting four points from Detroit.

As for Nashville, they will be facing a Rick Nash-less Columbus tonight in their home finale and then head to St. Louis for a clash tomorrow night.  If Nashville takes care of business, they could definitely capture the 4th seed and home-ice advantage.

Of course, it’s entirely possible that the 4th – 8th seeds come entirely down to regulation/overtime wins (ROW).  Consider the following possible outcome:

(1) Vancouver vs (8) L.A., 99pts (36 ROW)

(2) San Jose vs (7) Phoenix, 99pts (37 ROW)

(3) Detroit vs (6) Nashville, 99pts (38 ROW)

(4) Anaheim, 99pts (43 ROW) vs (5) Chicago, 99pts (39 ROW)

Amazing.

It’s also fascinating that it’s entirely possible that San Jose and Phoenix could play up to nine straight games against one another.

Raffi Torres

Amazing suspension given to Vancouver’s Raffi Torres.  Following the GM meetings, there was a feeling that suspensions would be stronger- but not until next season.  Matt Cooke’s suspension was certainly very significant, but his repeat offender status allowed the NHL to make an example of him.

Torres’ suspension was a surprise to me.  A welcome surprise.  It seems to indicate that the NHL does mean business this time when it says that suspensions will have more teeth.  Hopefully it truly is a trend in the right direction in terms of player safety and accountability.

That said, the NHL owes it to its players to define clear guidelines on what will and will not rise to the suspension level.  The Torres hit, out of all of the more recent elbow-to-head incidents, was the closest to what has been considered a “hockey play”.

The Week Ahead for Nashville (All Times CST)

• Friday, 4/8 vs Columbus @ 7pm (FSN)
• Saturday, 4/9 at St. Louis @ 7pm (FSN)

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Follow-up: Are David Poile and Barry Trotz Doing A Good Job?

Last week’s column prompted a lot of discussion on partner site HFBoards.com.  That wasn’t unexpected as I did have some significant criticism of Poile especially.  There was some specific reader feedback I want to address this week.

User jlsg (who happens to be the owner of the former site that gave me my start as a Predators’ blogger, PredNation.com).  Jlsg took me to task for my usage of the phrase “the Predator way”.  He was correct too.  As jlsg pointed out, “the Predator way” has more to do with what Barry Trotz expects from each and every player- simply hard work and attention to the details in every game.

I had bastardized the phrase for how Poile has built (and continues to build) the team.  While I don’t think it’s too great a stretch since I believe that Trotz’s notion of “the Predator way” weighs heavily in the type of players that Poile brings in (which makes sense of course), I understand the confusion it may have caused.

Beyond that, however, I stand by my opinions from last week that Nashville could ice a team with Weber, Suter, Rinne and an elite forward making roughly $7 million a year while not greatly impacting their lower lines prior to their acquisition of Mike Fisher (my post in the thread using CapGeek’s Cap Calculator, and Jarome Iginla for a representative salary, that shows how that was possible).

David Poile and Barry Trotz have done a great job with this team to this point.  And while this team, as it stands now, has the talent to make a deep run in the playoffs, they have very little room for error and require Pekka Rinne, Shea Weber, and Ryan Suter to be at their elite levels every night.  They also need every player and coach on the bench to leave everything on the ice every night.

There’s certainly no arguing that the Predators are bringing it on the ice now as they drive to the playoffs and (hopefully) prove me wrong in that regard.

Speaking of which…

Nashville Driving Towards Playoffs

Last night’s win (in regulation) over the Anaheim Ducks was especially important with Anaheim being behind Nashville in the standings- all craziness aside.

Saturday’s game against Dallas is equally important.  Win those, and there’s a little less pressure when facing Vancouver on Tuesday.

Here’s hoping the Predators prove me wrong and go deep into the playoffs.

NHL Discipline- Mike Murphy, GM Meetings, Matt Cooke, etc.

As many times as I’ve called out the league for their handling of supplemental discipline, I have to give credit where credit is due in regards to Matt Cooke.  The league gave Cooke a very significant suspension that hopefully will have an impact on his play.  I also have to give kudos to the Penguins organization for supporting the decision and telling Cooke that they will not tolerate that kind of play on the ice- a very refreshing point of view for a team to have.  One would hope that this sets a precedent, but I doubt it.

If you haven’t read Mike Murphy’s comments in Nicholas J. Cotsonika’s article regarding how he assessed the Chara-Pacioretty hit, I highly recommend you do so.  I found them fascinating, puzzling, and a little troublesome.  It did explain to me, however, why the league is so inconsistent with their administering of supplemental discipline.

The first thing I found fascinating is that Murphy (and presumably Colin Campbell) tries to ignore slow motion replays in favor of real-time replays in an effort to “get a feel for the speed and decision making of the players”.  Trying to infer intent is a fool’s errand (which is why they have so often come off looking like fools).  Ignoring technology that allows one to clearly see Chara following through with his arm and essentially “board” Pacorietty into the turnbuckle would have given Murphy the “basis” he needed to apply some form of supplemental for the clearly reckless play (meaning intent had nothing to do with it).  The officials on the ice have to make calls at full speed.

What I found most troublesome, however, was this part of the article:

But he didn’t just talk to Chara. He said he sought the opinions of players, coaches and general managers who had “no agenda in it,” mostly in the Western Conference. Campbell often does the same when considering supplemental discipline.

Asked how many people he canvassed, Murphy said: “I’d rather not say. Just a significant amount. I can tell you that.”

Really?  No wonder supplemental discipline is so inconsistent.  Apparently the number and type of players, and coaches, play a role in it.  That’s just about the craziest thing I’ve ever heard.  Canvassing players and coaches in the off- season is a good idea.  During the season?  Not so much.  How does one truly know if a player, coach or general manager has no agenda in it?  As many general managers have a player similar to Matt Cooke (a pest that sometimes goes over the line), they would certainly have an agenda.

Dispensing supplemental discipline is certainly a thankless job (unless it’s a slam dunk like the Cooke decision).  That said, it is their job.  If Murphy and Campbell are the ones paid to make the decision, they should work from a set of standards and make their own decisions.  They should take the responsibility and accountability and not be swayed by any player, coach or general manager during the season.

Finally, I want to touch on this statement by Mike Murphy:

“I didn’t pay a tremendous amount of attention to what was going to happen politically. I worried more about what was the right thing to do for the game, and sometimes those two things collide. They don’t align themselves – what’s right for the game and what’s right politically. We live in a hockey world. We’re not tied to a political world much.”

This statement is actually what I’d like to hear from someone in Murphy’s (or Campbell’s) position.

Here’s the thing though.  How do consider such a reckless play “the right thing to do for the game”?

The Week Ahead for Nashville (All Times CST)

• Saturday, 3/26 vs Dallas @ 7pm (FSN)
• Tuesday, 3/29 vs Vancouver @ 7pm (FSN)
• Thursday, 3/24 at Colorado @ 8pm (FSN)

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Are David Poile and Barry Trotz Doing A Good Job?

This is a dumb question right?  I mean, countless experts across the NHL keep saying that they do a phenomenal job.

Like to see a sample?  How about Pierre Lebrun on 3/15:

The work of David Poile and Barry Trotz continues to be out of this world. They deserve a ton of credit.

It’s easy to see why people can form that opinion.  David Poile and Barry Trotz have guided the Predators to a playoff berth in five of the past six years and hope to make it six of seven this year.  Poile and his staff have done a fantastic job of drafting defensemen and goalies.  They have guided the team through massive ownership turmoil that included a forced sell-off of some all-star caliber talent and an attempt to destabilize the market by one potential owner in order to lower revenues further.

Through all that, “the Predator way” has kept the ship afloat and has allowed the team to remain competitive and ice a team for which Predator fans can be proud?  It’s a system that relies on consistent hard work and great defense from the goalies all the way to the forwards.  It’s designed to allow the team to succeed if even they have to win most of their games 2-1 or 1-0.  To this point, one truly does have to commend Poile and Trotz for those successes.

“The Predator way” is what it is perceived to be due to two things.  First and foremost is that Barry Trotz and his staff appear to favor a very disciplined and defensive style of play.  This dovetails very nicely with David Poile’s and the scout’s ability to bring in excellent talent at defense and in goal.  The second perceived influence is that Nashville’s internal budget leaves no money left for David Poile to go out and find real scoring help at forward.  For me, I think there is much more truth to the former than the latter.

Nashville certainly is not a cap-spending team.  However, when spreading the responsibility around for an inept offense, I believe that David Poile and Barry Trotz should shoulder as much, if not more, than the lower budget.

For as much success the Predators have had in drafting defensemen and goalies, they’ve been abysmal in drafting and developing game-breaking forwards.  Draft position has something to do with it, but game-breaking forwards are frequently found in later rounds.  While a lower budget doesn’t preclude the possibility of paying elite players at multiple positions (see Carolina), it does greatly help comes from the younger (read: cheaper) players.  Nashville has gotten that from everywhere except their forwards.

There has also been several instances where Poile’s allotment of payroll among the forwards doesn’t appear to match where Barry Trotz wants to play them on the ice.  David Legwand is certainly the largest example.  After the 2006-2007 season, David Legwand was rewarded with a 6-year contract that averaged $4.5 million.  For Nashville, that was top-line money.  Legwand was expected to lead the top offensive line and continue to put up 65+ points for years to come.  What happened has been much different.  For the vast majority of the time, Legwand has been leading Nashville’s top defensive line.  Even this season started with Legwand leading Nashville’s defensive line while every other center played on the scoring lines- none of whom had ever come close to scoring at Legwand’s pace.  It wasn’t until the end of December when injuries mounted at center combined with Legwand returning from injury, forced Legwand to play on one of the top two lines.  Since then, he’s played 35 games and scored 26 points.  That’s a rate of 0.74 pts/game.  Goc and O’Reilly were both on pace for about 0.47 pts/game.  Play Legwand where his salary and output would indicate he play (at least in comparison to Nashville’s other options) and you minimize the effect of having to work with a lower budget.  In this case, the responsibility falls more on Trotz as Legwand is putting up very respectable numbers for a #2 center on any team would work as Nashville’s top center- even though me might still be slightly overpaid for producing at the 0.74 pts/game.  Paying a player $4.5 million to play in the bottom six is not a wise usage of resources, particularly when they appear to be producing better than your other options when in comparable roles.  However, if Barry Trotz felt that David Legwand should not be in the top six, then Poile should have made every effort to trade Legwand (in spite of the NTC) in order to not be spending $4.5 million on player playing a bottom six role.

Speaking of which, the acquisition of Mike Fisher seemed a poor move to me then from a long-term perspective and I’ve not changed my mind since.  Mike Fisher is a very good center for a grind line that would have some offensive punch.  But for Nashville to pay any more than $2 million in real or cap dollars for a player in the bottom six is another unwise allotment of resources.  As the current line of Smithson, Spaling and Tootoo show, Nashville can ice a very effective energy/defensive line at salaries very friendly to their budget.  Mike Fisher is not a top six forward, even on Nashville, but is going to be paid like one for the next two years.  This move in particular is one I believe may come back to bite the Predators the most.

Those resource and/or personnel errors (among others) have made a challenging financial situation much worse than it should be.  It has limited the amount of offensive talent with which the coaching staff must work.  It’s almost forced the team into having too many overpaid forwards in relation to their skill set in an effort to spread them across all four lines hoping they can score enough goals combined to survive.  We Predator fans call this ability to run four lines “depth”.  It’s not “depth”, nor is it an “ability” to run four lines.  It’s a necessity.

To succeed in the regular season, Nashville depends upon their $3 – $4 million third and fourth line players to consistently beat out opposing teams’ $1 – $2 million third and fourth line players, while hoping Nashville’s top lines produce enough to hold serve by outworking the opposition.  It’s worked out pretty well in that regard.

Where it falls apart is in the playoffs- or in situations near playoff-like when every team is working hard to make the playoffs and benches start to shorten.  Nashville can’t compete consistently with other playoff-caliber teams when the benches begin to shorten because those $3 – $4 million third and fourth liners of Nashville see less ice time against the oppositions third and fourth line and more time against the $4 – $6+ million second and first liners of other teams.

It also falls apart in regards to asset management.  With the constant stream of all those high-priced third line players, David Poile keeps all of his young player assets in an effort to maximize the potential for cheap production.  This is can be bad for the young asset’s development, or just create a logjam that results in Nashville losing the player for practically nothing.

For Nashville to have true depth and succeed in the playoffs, they need to keep their bottom six players very affordable and bring in an elite player to compliment solid veterans in the top six.  Doing that would allow Nashville to have difference-making players upfront while playing solid role players in the bottom six who can fill in temporarily in the top six when needed.  Specifically, I’m referring to players like Marcel Goc and Joel Ward.  Those are ideal players from a cost and fit standpoint that can fill in on the top six in a short term capacity.  Young players like Geoffrion and Halischuk provide the depth to step into those roles vacated in those situations.

David Poile is the one providing the players and he should be the most accountable.  The acquisition of Mike Fisher signaled to me that there is not going to be any change to that formula.  Nashville’s going to continue to ice 3rd – 2nd line talent for the foreseeable future.  That’s unfortunate because the only way that will succeed come playoff time is to maximize offensive opportunities like power plays.

Here is where Barry Trotz must take some accountability- especially this season.  Nashville’s plug-and-play philosophy in players over the years since the sell-off, has resulted in roughly the same levels of talent year-after-year.  Even with the injuries, this year is no exception.  The power play has done nothing but get worse year-after-year.  That’s pretty amazing considering Nashville has three very effective blueliners on the power play in Weber, Suter and Franson.  They appear to have another gem in Blum (who is much like Suter in regards to his power play role, but with a better shot and the willingness to employ it).  This year was supposed to have seen different results due to a renewed emphasis and priority from Coach Trotz himself.  The results have not matched the emphasis in which the coaches have placed upon it.

David Poile and Barry Trotz have done some great things in Nashville together.  They have the ability to take Nashville where the owners’ claim to want to go- to the Stanley Cup.

They’ve also shown, however, that in six years “the Predator way” can’t produce a deep run in the playoffs.  Year seven isn’t looking much better.  You can’t make a team’s defense much better than it has been this season.  Their record in 1-0 and 2-1 games is horrible.

If there’s any accountability down at 501 Broadway, “the Predator way” must evolve.

The Week Ahead for Nashville (All Times CST)

• Saturday, 3/19 vs Detroit @ 7pm (FSN)
• Sunday, 3/20 at Buffalo @ 4pm (FSN)
• Tuesday, 3/22 vs Edmonton @ 7pm (FSN)
• Thursday, 3/24 vs Anaheim @ 7pm (FSN)

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).

Nashville’s Playoff Expectations

With Nashville’s win over the Wild last night, SportsClubStats.com gives them a 59% chance of making the playoffs.

Do I expect them to make the playoffs?  No.

Can they?  Yes.  But they require lots of help.

Right now, I’ve not seen the team play consistent enough to make the necessary push even if they get the help they need.  They tend to play to the level of their opponent, no matter how good or bad they are.  Even in the Minnesota game, they let off the gas and didn’t finish the team off in the second.

Facing-Off: The Aftermath of Zdeno Chara’s Hit on Max Pacioretty

It’s been three days since the hit.  We all know the physical condition of Pacioretty.  We all agree that no one that’s human likes to see a player injured- especially to this degree.  Now the NHL has weighed in by saying that there was no basis for any supplemental discipline.  Scott Burnside of ESPN.com has posted an article supporting that decision- basically agreeing that there’s really no basis for the NHL’s ruling.

To me, Burnside and NHL are confusing a lack of precedent with having no basis for supplemental discipline.  They are completely different concepts.

Without too much research, let me concede that there likely was a lack of precedent for taking further action.  Much has been written (by anybody that remotely cares about the sport) on the NHL’s ability to “spin the wheel of justice” because it’s never been consistent.  Precedent may or may not have been established in past incidents.

For this case, the only precedent the NHL would have had to established is that a player is responsible for his actions on the ice- accidental or otherwise.  That’s always been a tough one for this league (from the very top to the lowest level players) to do.  For a league that’s all about “manning up”, no one’s ever been able to “man up” when it comes to that toughest task of being responsible and accountable for your actions on a fellow person.  Amazingly enough, this league likes to shift some responsibility to the victim.  That’s akin to telling a sexual assault victim that’s she bears some responsibility for the crime because of the clothes that she wore.  That’s enough on that subject for now, as it’s one I’ve written in-depth on previously.

Putting precedent aside, did the NHL have any basis for adding any form of supplemental discipline?  Most definitely.  The basis existed if they had desired to make that precedent of players having responsibility.

On the play, the officials called Chara for interference.  I’ve not heard anyone reasonably question that call.  It was pretty clear that Chara interfered with Pacioretty breaking in on the puck (which was well clear of both players) due to the threat of being beaten.  It’s similar to a cornerback in pro football obviously holding a wide receiver that he knows is going to cleanly beat him and likely score.  The preference is to take the flag (or penalty in hockey terms) than to allow an easy score.  To me, this is a very good play at times- both in football and hockey.

If Chara had limited his actions to interference then nobody would be talking about it any further as a simple minor would have ensued and Pacioretty would still be playing beyond that moment in time.

Chara, however, took it a step further.  He boarded Pacioretty and in a location that players know is especially dangerous- along the benches.

Consider Rule 42 from Section 6- Physical Fouls in the Official NHL Rulebook (underlining my emphasis):

Rule 42 – Boarding

42.1 Boarding – A boarding penalty shall be imposed on any player or

goalkeeper who checks an opponent in such a manner that causes

the opponent to be thrown violently in the boards. The severity of the

penalty, based upon the degree of violence of the impact with the

boards, shall be at the discretion of the Referee.

Did Chara’s hit qualify?  His follow through resulted in Pacioretty “thrown violently in the boards”.  It’s certainly not a stretch to consider that boarding.  Would it have been boarding anywhere else?  No.  That doesn’t matter though.  Along the benches still qualifies as the boards and special care must be taken as all players know that hits in that area of the ice are especially dangerous.  The rest of rule 42.1 addresses those aspects:

There is an enormous amount of judgment involved in the

application of this rule by the Referees. The onus is on the player (or

goalkeeper) applying the check to ensure his opponent is not in a

vulnerable position and if so, he must avoid the contact. However,

there is also a responsibility on the player with the puck to avoid

placing himself in a dangerous and vulnerable position. This balance

must be considered by the Referees when applying this rule.

Any unnecessary contact with a player playing the puck on an

obvious “icing” or “off-side” play which results in that player being

knocked into the boards is “boarding” and must be penalized as such.

In other instances where there is no contact with the boards, it should

be treated as “charging.”

Reading the underlined portion above, it clearly indicates that the onus is on the checking player to avoid contact when the opposing player is in a vulnerable position.  Any hits near the “turnbuckle” should qualify as being in a vulnerable position.

I also underlined the part where responsibility is placed upon the individual being boarded to not put himself in a vulnerable position.  I’ve already given my opinion on that silly notion.  Even so, one can’t argue that Pacioretty did that.  He had Chara beat and was making a solid hockey play (Chiarelli should watch and learn what a solid hockey play truly is- beating your opponent with speed and/or skill to the puck).

Boarding would have also made slightly more sense for the reasoning behind the major penalty that was issued.  Interference had already occurred and the injury was really from the boarding that occurred afterward.

42.3 Major Penalty – The Referee, at his discretion, may assess a major

penalty, based on the degree of violence of the impact with the

boards, to a player or goalkeeper guilty of boarding an opponent (see

42.5).

42.4 Match Penalty – The Referee, at his discretion, may assess a match

penalty if, in his judgment, the player or goalkeeper attempted to or

deliberately injured his opponent by boarding.

42.5 Game Misconduct Penalty - When a major penalty is imposed under

this rule for a foul resulting in an injury to the face or head of an

opponent, a game misconduct shall be imposed.

42.6 Fines and Suspensions - Any player or goalkeeper who incurs a

total of two (2) game misconducts under Rule 42 and/or Rule 44, in

either Regular season or Play-offs, shall be suspended automatically

for the next game of his team. For each subsequent game misconduct

penalty the automatic suspension shall be increased by one game.

When a major penalty is imposed under this rule, an automatic fine

of one hundred dollars ($100) shall be imposed.

If deemed appropriate, supplementary discipline can be applied by

the Commissioner at his discretion (refer to Rule 29).

Finally, boarding allows for supplementary discipline via Rule 29.  As you’ll see below, that is a generic catch-all that allows the Commissioner to apply supplementary discipline at his discretion.  Note that it doesn’t matter if the official had called the penalty or not to apply supplemental discipline (underlined part below).

Rule 29 – Supplementary Discipline

29.1 Supplementary Discipline - In addition to the automatic fines and

suspensions imposed under these rules, the Commissioner may, at

his discretion, investigate any incident that occurs in connection with

any Pre-season, Exhibition, League or Playoff game and may assess

additional fines and/or suspensions for any offense committed during

the course of a game or any aftermath thereof by a player,

goalkeeper, Trainer, Manager, Coach or non-playing Club personnel

or Club executive, whether or not such offense has been penalized by

the Referee.

If an investigation is requested by a Club or by the League on its

own initiative, it must be initiated within twenty-four (24) hours

following the completion of the game in which the incident occurred.

Ultimately, if you believe that Chara could have been called for boarding, then the NHL had the basis for applying some level of supplementary discipline via rules 42.6 and 29.1 if they wanted to do so.

It would have required the NHL to establish a precedent for actually holding a player accountable for their actions via supplemental discipline.  As I’ve shown in the above rules, that’s supposed to be the case.

To me, as is often the case, the NHL chose the easy way out.

Just in case you might be wondering what I would have done…  I would have suspended Chara for 5 games attributable to reckless play in such a dangerous area of the ice.  I would have done that whether Pacioretty was injured or not (which is what I believe should be the minimum number of games for the first offense of anything rising to the level of suspension)

Don’t miss Mark Willoughby’s excellent thoughts on the process of applying supplemental discipline in this case.

The Week Ahead for Nashville (All Times CST)

Yesterday, Bryan Mullen of the Tennessean had the following quote from Barry Trotz:

“We’re one point out of the pack and we’ve got 12 home games,” Coach Barry Trotz said. “We have to make a move at home here, and if we do we’ll make the playoffs. If we don’t, we won’t.”

Barry is right about one thing.  If the Predators don’t make a move at home, they certainly won’t make the playoffs.

Unfortunately for Barry, his Predators need more than a dominant home stand.  They’ll need several other teams to fall by the wayside (see Josh Cooper’s overview of their chances).  The fact that the Predators have won several of their games via the shootout doesn’t help them with tiebreakers either.

• Saturday, 3/12 vs Colorado @ 7pm (FSN)
• Tuesday, 3/15 vs Los Angeles @ 7pm (FSN)
• Thursday, 3/17 vs Boston @ 7pm (FSN)

You are invited to follow me on Twitter (@SingletonPreds).  For game recaps of all Predators games, check out my HockeyIndependent colleague, Mark Willoughby (@TheViewFrom111).