What established those expectations?  It begins with Erat’s skills.  He has a great shot, great speed, and is fairly difficult to knock off the puck.  Combine those skills with the speed and playmaking skills shown by Legwand at that time, and everyone became excited for the potential of those two as they progressed through what should have been their prime years.

In the two years since signing his contract, Erat went from consecutive 57 point seasons (the last of which with 23 goals) to a 50 and then 49 point season this past year.  Why has Erat not been able to take the next step?  He has all the natural skills of a goal scorer, but has yet to top 30 goals (or get any closer than the 23 he had prior to new contract) while other Predators have.  I decided to make an attempt to answer the question by looking at the other 30 goal scorers this past season (which included Patric Hornqvist).

There were 24 players that scored 30 or more goals in the 2009 – 2010 regular season.  For comparison efforts, I’ve taken the average of those 24 players in several categories and charted them along with both Patric Hornqvist’s and Erat’s individual numbers/ranking (if you were to include Erat).

From the chart, I noticed that Erat received 44 seconds less PP time than the average time received by the 30+ goal scorers last season.  While that number is significant, along with Erat’s ranking of 24th out of 25 players in that statistic, it’s mitigated by the fact that there were a significant number of players within a very close range to Erat’s 2:46- like Hornqvist’s 2:50 of PP TOI/G or Bobby Ryan’s 2:52 of TOI/G and 11 PP G. (Off topic question- did anyone else other than me not realize that Jarome Iglinia and Rick Nash were not the leading forwards for their respective teams PP TOI/G?)

The most amazing statistic to me from the chart above is the total shots on goal.  Erat was more than 100 shots lower than the average number of shots put on net by the 30+ goal scorers.  Erat has some of the best goal scoring talents on the team, but greatly trailed Hornqvist (275) , Weber (222), and Arnott (216) last season.  Arnott’s departure leaves Erat with the most dangerous shot among the forwards.

Arnott averaged about 3.4 S/G over the 63 games he played.  If Erat could average that many shots (just slightly better than 1 S/G per period), with a 12% Sh%, he would be around 250 shots (about 74 games) and hit the 30 goal plateau.  With proper attention to detail, and potentially increased PP time, I believe that the 30 goal season is within his reach.  More importantly, I believe it’s a necessity for the Predators to once again reach the playoffs.  Not to mention that Hornqvist needs all the rebounds he can get.

There’s an old basketball adage (insert “hockey isn’t basketball” comment here) that shooters must be fed the ball and continue to shoot.  It’s an adage I believe translates well to hockey.  Those players with natural goal scoring talents don’t score unless they shoot.

Shea Weber Hardest Shot Competition, Pittsburgh Post Gazette

Yesterday, I read a Twitter discussion between Lyle Richardson (Spector), Dirk Hoag (The Forechecker), James Mirtle, and Greg Wyshynski (Puck Daddy) regarding the current CBA and potential changes for the new CBA.  Lyle opined that the salary cap has not helped the Nashville Predators.  He expressed the opinion that they are the same today as they were in 2004, 2006 and 2007 due to the inability of the salary cap to help.  Regardless of his opinion of the Predator’s financial situation, basing that opinion solely on the salary cap is a flawed premise.

Putting all the PR statements made by Gary Bettman aside, the salary cap (including aspects like the cap floor) was meant to ensure cost certainty (combined with escrow).  That cost certainty was the single most important aspect of the CBA for the League and the owners.  Beyond cost certainty in and of itself however, there’s nothing about the salary cap that’s designed to help small market franchises from a financial standpoint.  Where it does help the small market franchise is on the ice.  The aspect of both a cap floor and cap ceiling means every team in the league will have a roster that’s roughly within $16 million of every other team.  Prior to the lockout, there were several teams that had a payroll more than $50 million higher than the Predators.  It’s now easier for the Predators to both ice a competitive team and to keep most of the players that they want to keep.

Before continuing down the CBA path, I feel compelled to spend a few sentences explaining that last statement.  In trying to prove their point that the cap/CBA doesn’t work, many try to point to the Nashville talent purge after the 2006 season that saw Hartnell, Timmonen, and Vokoun traded as well as little effort to re-sign Kariya and Forsberg.  To point to that event in one’s list of “CBA failures” is being ignorant or forgetful of the situation in Nashville at best and intellectually dishonest at worst (on which I’m definitely not accusing Lyle to be very clear).  In that offseason, Craig Leipold had decided to sell the team due to his inability to make money.  As such, he ordered David Poile to cut salary to make the sale more palatable for a potential buyer.  What most didn’t realize at the time was that much of Leipold’s troubles stemmed from his alienating the local corporate sector.  After the sale to local ownership, that situation has been publicized.  The local ownership group has done a great job of turning things around which has allowed Nashville to keep their core players (David Legwand, Martin Erat, Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Pekka Rinne, etc.).  Of course Nashville still has to have an internal budget, which leads us back to the aspect of the CBA that provides the most financial benefit to Nashville beyond cost certainty- revenue sharing.

While the salary cap, along with escrow, provided the cost certainty, it did nothing to help account for the revenue advantages one market has over another due to size, history, etc.  Enter revenue sharing.  Revenue sharing was essentially designed to increase the revenues of those disadvantaged clubs in order to allow a payroll near the midpoint of the salary cap.  Why not the cap ceiling?  The cost certainty percentage the CBA targets each season is actually represented by the midpoint of the salary cap.  In other words, the goal of the CBA is for every team to spend exactly to the midpoint.  If that were to happen, the players would receive all of their escrowed money back.  On the other hand, if every team were to spend to the cap ceiling, the players would lose all of their escrowed money back to the league in order to bring overall payroll costs back into line.  (Please note that this is very much a simplification of the CBA and ignores certain nuances like the 5% kicker voted on by the players in the past offseasons, among others.)  I feel that this is especially important so I’ll reiterate that it is not a goal of the CBA that every team spends to the cap ceiling, otherwise revenue sharing would target the cap ceiling.  As such, there’s nothing wrong with some teams having a budget somewhere south of the cap ceiling.

So what we have is a CBA that is designed to provide cost certainty in terms of overall payroll and provide revenue sharing to allow all teams to have a payroll between the cap floor and the midpoint.  Those two factors combined produce the desired side effect of increasing the likelihood of parity in narrowing the range between the “haves” and “have nots”.  It’s still up to the individual GM’s, coaches, and players to take advantage of that increased financial parity on the ice.

With that understanding in place, we can now answer Lyle’s question.  Are the Nashville Predators better under this CBA than the prior CBA?  The answer is an unequivocal yes.  Not only was Nashville able to endure a hostile takeover attempt, they’ve been able to re-up their core players at market rate.  Their budget has been within a couple of million of the midpoint (leaving necessary contingency room in the event of injuries or trade deadline activity) each season.  While Nashville continues to rely on revenue sharing, which means they can’t cross the cap midpoint, that reliance is within the rules of the current CBA (which expects roughly ten teams to receive revenue sharing each season).  Sure they haven’t advanced in the playoffs, but their odds to do so have increased (not to mention that they should have beaten Chicago last year, in my opinion).  What hasn’t happened was Nashville losing most of their talent.  It didn’t prevent Nashville from paying over $5 million to David Legwand and Martin Erat, $4 million or more to Jason Arnott, J.P. Dumont, and Shea Weber.  Nor will it prevent them from paying $6 million to Erat in the 2011-12 season and about that amount to Weber or about that amount the following season to Ryan Suter (all numbers courtesy of CapGeek).  Even so, spending to the max only brings you so far (as the Rangers have proved).

Is the CBA perfect?  No.  Can the CBA be improved?  I believe so.  With the expiration of this CBA coming soon, discussion of potential changes among fans has already started.  What won’t happen, in my opinion, is any type of soft cap with a luxury tax.  The problem with those options is that it destroys the cost certainty that was achieved in the last CBA.  It makes no sense to give back the most important item for all the owners achieved in the last CBA.

Next time, I’ll look at some things I’d like to see to provide additional stability to the smaller markets and to the League.

I really enjoyed reading the discussion you guys had Lyle, Dirk, James and Greg.  Thanks.

It’s definitely been a busy offseason for David Poile and Predator fans should continue to expect more roster changes if only to downsize to a good size without having to bury contracts in the minors.  Has it been productive though?  That’s the real question to answer.  First, let’s see how the Predators have built their roster to this point (ignoring likely minor signings).

First the Predators re-signed Francis Bouillon on 6/18.  This officially kept 2/3 of the blueline in tact from last season.  On 6/19, the Predators made big news by trading their captain, Jason Arnott, to New Jersey for a prospect and a second round pick.  This freed up $4.5 million from the payroll and, combined with the trading away of Dan Hamhuis’ rights, stirred rumors of the Predators trying to drop their budget to the cap floor.  The aforementioned trade of Hamhuis, also on 6/19, brought former Predators’ first round pick Ryan Parent back to Nashville.  All was quiet until just prior to the free agency period when Nashville traded away the rights to Dan Ellis and Dustin Boyd for troubled RFA Sergei Kostitsyn.  On 7/1, David Poile announced the signing of Jonas Andersson to a one-year, one-way contract.  Andersson was a former second round pick of the Predators back in 1999.  Then on 7/2, David Poile quashed the rumors of just trying to stay at the cap floor by signing Matthew Lombardi to a 3 year, $10.5 million contract ($3.5 million per year).  And today, Sergei Kostitsyn signed his one year, one-way contract for $550,000.  Whew.  Given the roster size, however, there’s definitely more to come.

So, assuming the remaining RFAs are signed, David Poile has added Sergei Kostitsyn, Jonas Andersson, and Matthew Lombardi to the forward core to replace Jason Arnott (and possibly Spaling if he’s sent back to Milwaukee).  Has it made Nashville a better team?  Jason Arnott scored 46 points last season (19G, 27A) in 63 games- a rate of 0.73 points per game.  While typically a good source of goal scoring for Nashville, his time was also unfortunately marred by several concussions and a tendency to disappear for significant stretches of games.  That, combined with a significant drop in goals (from 33 to 19), hurt his ability to help Nashville where they needed it most: a goal-scorer.  That said, he was one of only three Predators that put more than 200 shots on goal (Hornqvist and Weber the other two)- an issue that has plagued the Predators for years.  While many have lauded the offense that Lombardi will bring to the table, he’s never done anything more than put up seasons that were on par with Arnott’s worst statistical seasons- including last year.  He’s not a shooter either.  In terms of both shot count and shot percentage, Lombardi is essentially another Erat (although a much nicer priced Erat).  Kostitsyn and Andersson are both wild cards, but Kostitsyn has some history.  In the past two seasons, Kostitsyn has averaged about 1.3 shots per game (less than David Legwand) while posting roughly a 11% success rate (roughly equivalent to Lombardi).  On the other hand, all three are excellent skaters with Lombardi and Kostitsyn considered good two-way players.

Back to the question of whether Nashville is a better team with these changes- Nashville should be a much faster team and much more defensively responsible among the forwards (important given the likely downgrade of the blueline).  I also expect the penalty kill units to be much improved as well- certainly of great benefit to Nashville in particular.  Offensively, however, I don’t see that much of an increase if any at all.  The power play unit will lose a player that was willing to put the puck on net allowing for Hornqvist to have the opportunity to cash in on the rebounds.  While Nashville adds more in the way of playmakers, they have less who’s first instinct is to score goals.  Last season, Nashville was near the top in the league in depth scoring (number of players with 20-ish goals or more), but that didn’t matter come playoff time.  While I have liked everything that Poile has done to this point, there is still a significant need to bring in that goal scorer.  I believe that moving Arnott was a good thing, but the good things he brought to the table in shooting and goal scoring have yet to be replaced to this point.

What do fans of the Nashville Predators have to look forward to next?  Definitely some roster reduction will be in the works.  The most likely candidates to me: Cal O’Reilly ($575,000) and Alexander Sulzer ($700,000).  That would get the roster size down to 22 players (including all RFAs re-signed using the numbers I speculated about here) with an actual salary of about $45,575,000 ($46.7 million cap hit)- likely under the internal budget and about halfway between the cap floor and midpoint.  That scenario keeps with the shotgun approach of hoping several players contribute enough to boost the offensive statistics- particularly those power play statistics.  If Poile really wanted to surprise, he could move Jordin Tootoo (a player that has really struggled to fit his talents with the needs of the Predators) and J.P. Dumont in order to bring in that greatly needed sniper with the extra $5 million that would be freed with such a move.

At a minimum, the Predators should field a team that is much faster and stronger defensively among the forwards.  The blueline is a likely question mark given additional youth and the overall downgrade after Weber and Suter.  The seemingly age-old question about the power play has to hope that a bunch of playmakers will figure out that they’ll need to help Weber and Hornqvist score goals.  That might be too much to ask.

First, David Poile re-signed Francis Bouillon for two years at a $1.375 million cap hit.  Given my attempts at impersonating David Poile last time, I definitely like this deal (which was better than what I had guessed).  The downside is the likely difference in the role Poile and I have them playing.  I continued to ice Bouillon as the number five defenseman and re-signed either Hamhuis or Grebeshkov as the number three defenseman.  With Poile trading Hamhuis and stating on radio shows that he likely will not qualify Grebeshkov, he is likely prepared to enter the season with either Klein or Bouillon in the third slot.  We’ll see how long that experiment works out (and it certainly could be made to work).

After the Bouillon signing, Poile traded Dan Hamhuis to Philadelphia and then shocked most of the Predators’ fans and media by trading Jason Arnott to New Jersey.  The trade of Hamhuis was great in that it brought back former Predator first round pick Ryan Parent for a player that Nashville was going to lose in two weeks anyway.  Parent (RFA) will now have to be re-signed as well, but shouldn’t be a huge cost.

Jason Arnott yielded a prospect and a second round pick from New Jersey.  More importantly however is the $4.5 million that is now available to re-sign current players and make improvements to the team.  Much has been made regarding the impact that losing Arnott’s scoring will have.  In my opinion, I don’t think that replacing the 46 points he scored from last season will be that hard (certainly with the additional salary room).  As a team that’s always had a leadership group above and beyond the captain and the alternates, they should not experience much of a leadership void either.  Arnott’s history of concussions was troubling to me for both the player and the team.  From that perspective, I wish he had retired.  In any case, I wish both he and Dan Hamhuis the greatest of luck and health and thank them for their service to the Nashville Predators.  I’ve had the pleasure of watching them both play in Nashville for many years.

Now that all the dust has settled, what options are available to David Poile as he completes the roster?  Plenty.  First, let’s make the following assumptions so that we set our field:

• Ryan Parent and Cody Franson are both re-signed at roughly $1 million each,
• Patric Hornqvist is re-signed for 3yrs and a $2.25 million cap hit ($2, $2.25, and $2.5 million per),
• Mark Dekanich or some other backup tender is brought in for about $550,000.

Including Alexander Sulzer, Cal O’Reilly, and Nick Spaling that brings the roster size to 23 players totaling $43.175 million in actual salary with a $44,633,334 cap hit.  That breaks down into 13 forwards, 8 defensemen and 2 goalies- one (or two) too many defensemen.  Let’s additionally assume that the Predators budget will be roughly $46 million in actual salary and they still cannot exceed the midpoint of the salary cap.  Without moving another player, Poile still has about $2.125 million in actual salary room for the upcoming season.  Of course with roster limits, he’ll have to move someone (or demote) to bring in more, so let’s move Alexander Sulzer.  That raises budget space to $2.825 million.

Assuming moving J.P. Dumont is still an option as well, that opens the budget space to $6.875 million (while being $7,516,666 under the cap mid point).  Given that Poile still wants to address scoring and hasn’t ruled out further trades or free agents, I believe that Poile is open to bringing in an elite forward provided he can move J.P. Dumont.  Most did not believe that moving Arnott was an option (NMC, etc.), but it was.  Moving Dumont is a viable option if he’s agreeable.

The numbers work.  Even with an internal budget of $46 million, you can bring in a superstar player.  Will David Poile do that?  I don’t know, but I believe he’s looking for that right fit.

Edited to add: All numbers obtained from CapGeek.com.

David Poile- from CNNSI.com

In my last blog, I detailed the tough job that this offseason will be for David Poile.  In order to understand my thought process, as wacked as one might think it is, please read that entry if nothing more than to confirm your suspicions.

In this missive, I’m going to pretend I’m David Poile and outline scenarios, with specific players, designed to improve the team for next season as well as beyond.

Before I go and build next year’s Nashville Predators, I will share the guiding principles I will use throughout my efforts: (1) maintain the principle of building from the goaltender out, (2) do not sacrifice the core youth for veterans, and (3) provide tools to better the power play.  Two additional guiding principles that I’m going to utilize are to favor top-end potential over scoring depth as well as to restrict top-six level salaries for top-six forwards (in terms of their role on the team).

Nothing so onerous or outlandish yet (don’t worry, I’ll get there).

Next, I go to Ed Lang and the owners and do my utter best to convince them that the budget should be raised to $48 million- just under the cap midpoint.  My argument would be that it’s only $2 million and that you could pretty easily take it back down to $45 million in two years if they team doesn’t break even over the next two years (netted).

That might be a little risky, but I think it’s crucial for the long-term health of the franchise.  In and of itself, it also doesn’t take the franchise anywhere close to $20 million in losses to trigger any clauses with the city.  For the first draft of this scenario, I will work with a budget of $48 million.

Remember that we start with 18 players under contract, totaling roughly $42.7 million.  I’m going to build an improved roster on a $48 million budget.  Throughout this exercise, I will utilize capgeek.com and their great salary cap charts and fantasy calculators.  I can’t recommend their site enough.  Let’s start the insanity fun.

Internally, Identify the Top-Six Forwards

These forwards must be the best paid, ELC’s notwithstanding.   They must be played in roles to maximize their offensive potential as the team’s shift away from depth-based scoring (due to financial reasons) necessitates that fact.

I would identify David Legwand, Martin Erat, Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist, and one of Steve Sullivan, Jason Arnott, and J.P. Dumont.  Given the choice, I would choose Sullivan.  The other two join the pool of tradable assets that will be used to bring in the sixth player (directly or indirectly).

Why those five?  Legwand and Erat are paid like top six forwards, were drafted by Nashville and have longer contracts than the others.  Wilson is paid $1.725 million.  Nashville can’t afford too many players making that on the third line and he’s the best option, long term, to play top six minutes as opposed to Joel Ward and Jordin Tootoo.  Hornqvist is a given coming off a 30 goal season with less than top six minutes and is a natural for moving into a more permanent top six role.

From Sullivan, Dumont, and Arnott, I choose Sullivan for two reasons: (1) he’s a cheaper option with an expiring contract, and (2) I believe his ability to be both an effective scorer and playmaker trumps either Arnott’s scoring or Dumont’s playmaking ability.

Re-sign Patric Hornqvist: 3 years, $2.25 million cap hit

Since I’ve included him above, this obviously must occur.  Probably the lone bright spot on the power play, it’s crucial he’s brought back.  With this salary, he gets top-six minutes and plays a role that will maximize his offensive abilities.

Re-sign Shea Weber: 12 years, $5.5 million cap hit

Following our guiding principle of building from the goaltender out, and being proactive in signing our elite defenseman with the more unique skill set, I sign Shea Weber to a long term contract extension modeled after Duncan Keith’s contract (which also stresses the importance of re-signing Weber this offseason to maximize the effect of that comparable contract).

Additionally, it shows the league that Nashville has no intention of letting their All-Olympian defenseman leave town and is committed to improving the team- even with a limited budget.

Re-sign Francis Bouillon: 3 years, $1.5 million cap hit

Continuing our principle of building from the goaltender out, I re-sign the steady and physical Bouillon to a reasonable $1.5 million for the next three years.  With the re-signing of Bouillon, Nashville returns at least four from the last season’s blueline.  For Nashville, and their style of play, the more stability among that group the better.

Expect Jonathon Blum to fill 6^th Defenseman Spot

Blum’s NHL salary will be $941,666 over the next two seasons.  As much as I like Cody Franson, and feel that he plays an important role on the Predators power play, I also feel that Franson is likely the more valuable asset for trade purposes.  I also think that it is important to play Blum now in the event Nashville has to make another key decision in the 2012 offseason- coinciding with conclusion of his and Ryan Suter’s contracts.

That said, if the trade is favorable for Nashville, I would keep Franson and trade Blum without too much concern.

Identify Movable Roster Assets and Resultant Increase in Cap Space

Now, I identify assets that I want to move and the cap space that brings to the table.  Some of those assets have a No Movement or No Trade Clause.  While that makes moving those individuals harder, it’s not impossible and certainly not to be avoided.  At the end of the day, some of these players could remain, but I make every attempt to move each of these players to further the team.  I value the cleared cap space foremost, but want to maximize the return as much as possible.

Jason Arnott (NMC): 1 year left, $4.5 million cap hit

J.P. Dumont (NMC): 2 years left, $4 million cap hit

Jordin Tootoo: 2 years left, $1.25 million cap hit

Cal O’Reilly: 1 year left, $562,500 cap hit

Alexander Sulzer: 1 year left, $650,000 cap hit

If Nashville doesn’t re-sign Cody Franson or Denis Grebeshkov, their Restricted Free Agency status makes them useful trade assets as well.

If we pause to take stock, courtesy of capgeek.com, after removing those players from the roster, we are left with 16 players (10 forwards, 5 defensemen, 1 goalie), $36.421 million payroll, and a remaining budget of roughly $11.5 million (remember, we’re working on an internal budget of $48 million for this exercise).

Let’s continue…

Re-sign Dan Hamhuis or Denis Grebeshkov: 6 years, $3.75 million cap hit

Now we start spending that additional $11.5 million, and we do it by completing our blueline.  With this signing, Nashville does not have to make a move on the blueline until Ryan Suter and Jonathon Blum’s contracts expire in two years.  They certainly could, of course, but they don’t have to make a move.  Grebeshkov likely signs for a little less, but for easiness I’m going to work with the $3.75 million number.

(Re-)Sign two bottom six forwards and a backup goaltender: Limit of $1.75 million

Here we are filling out the role players.  We could re-sign Dustin Boyd for $700,000, sign another bottom six forward for $500,000 and sign a backup goaltender for $550,000.  Essentially any group of players provided we limit the total to $1.75 million.

Glancing again at where we are at, courtesy of capgeek, we have signed 20 players (12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies), committed $41.9 million to payroll, and have about $6 million left for our final top six forward.

Sign, or Trade for, an Elite Forward: Limit of $6 million cap hit next season

I first approach Washington about Alexander Semin (1 year left, $6 million cap hit).  I would consider any combination of the tradable assets above and/or a reasonable combination of draft picks for Semin.  If a trade can be made, I think his 40+ goals and top-end offensive skill bring the most to this team for the power play (other than bringing a power play coach).  Semin becomes an immediate threat that other teams must focus upon.  That will help Hornqvist and the defensemen increase their offensive potential.

The other aspect of trading for Semin is that Arnott and Dumont might be more likely to waive their NMCs to go to a team like Washington if I can entice Washington enough to take on the additional salary.

If Semin is off the table, I might turn my attention to Patrick Marleau.  I might also call Anaheim to discuss the possibilities of Bobby Ryan.  If Poile was going to exceed $5 million for Phil Kessel, the possibility should exist to bring in a player of this caliber after clearing the salary we cleared to this point.

Other Options for the Final Top Six Forward

The next best option might be to trade for Chicago’s Dustin Byfuglien (1 year left, $3 million).  Doing so would mean that we move our tradable assets above for draft picks (or those role players) as Chicago could not take salary back.  To me, that’s not a bad option as it gives me, I mean David Poile, significant options down the road.  Byfuglien brings the size and willingness to play in front of the net.  Between him and Patric Hornqvist, Nashville should be able to field two power play units that would be incredibly frustrating to play against and should be able to score at a much better pace- even if they are the ugly goals.

The final option here would be to bring back one of Dumont or Arnott.  This is the least favorable option by far to me.  This team must improve its power play and I believe retaining either does not do that.  Bringing in a player of Semin’s caliber certainly provides that potential.  Dustin Byfuglien brings another big body to the net.  To me, retaining Dumont or Arnott does not improve the power play and does not help offset the change in philosophy of focusing on getting more production from the top six and less on depth scoring.

All three options complete the roster.  The first brings the payroll to $47.9 million.  The second option (Byfuglien) brings the payroll to $44.9 million.  The final option brings the payroll to $45.9 – $46.4 million.

The latter two options actually allow the Predators to stay within their current budget, although only one of those options helps the Predators in my opinion.  The first option however, has a potentially much higher reward, for only a slightly higher risk- in my opinion.

Down the Road

Next year, Steve Sullivan’s $3.75 million comes off the books.  The Predators begin paying an additional $1 million for Shea Weber.  That’s a net of $2.75 million to work with to fill the vacant top six role- that’s with a full $6 million already allocated to an elite forward.

If next season sees a deep run in the playoffs and/or increased ticket sales, the budget could potentially go higher.  If an other-than-elite forward was not brought it, then there’s additional room to fill Sullivan’s vacant role.  If Semin was brought in and he doesn’t work out, that’s another $6 million to work with (and two spots to fill).  There’s also this kid named Radulov that will be free to return to the team after next season as well- for a nice, cheap price.

In two years time, it might become necessary to trade Ryan Suter.  For this reason, I believe it important to keep one of Hamhuis or Grebeshkov as well as groom Jonathon Blum to step into Suter’s role.  While one could argue to trade Weber instead, especially since the average Nashville fan considers Suter to be the better all-around defenseman at this time, I believe that Weber’s skills and assets are more difficult to replace both from within and via a trade.  As such, I consider Suter the better asset to trade if necessary.  That said, I don’t believe that trading him will be necessary.

There you have it, my impersonation of David Poile.  Have fun with it.  Or not.

With the offseason ahead of them, David Poile and Barry Trotz must now turn their focus toward improving this team for next season.  They’ve got their work cut out for them too.  According to capgeek.com, Nashville already has roughly $42 million committed to next season’s roster.  That roster is missing two defensemen (if you include Alexander Sulzer), one backup goalie, and Patric Hornqvist from the 13 signed forwards.  Assuming Nashville keeps to their estimated $45 million internal budget, that only leaves $3 million to sign a significant number of players.  Even if that miracle does occur (and I don’t think it possible), would that improve the team?

Improvement Needed

It’s only fair to identify areas needing improvement before we talk solutions.  On April 30^th, Bryan Mullen of the Tennessean published an article in which Trotz and Poile discuss the horrible special teams play by the Predators.  Now, they were talking specifically about the power play units during the Chicago series, but could have been talking about the power play efforts practically since the team’s inception.  Poile stated that the special teams play would be “the highest priority”.  Trotz stated that he’s not afraid to make any change to improve the power play.  From Bryan’s article, Trotz stated that “were going to look at personnel, we’re going to look at staff, we’re going to look at our philosophy.”  Given the lack of change from any of those aspects over the years, forgive me if I won’t hold my breath waiting for any of those to change this offseason either.

Also on April 30^th, both John Glennon of the Tennessean and Chris Burton of On the Forecheck discussed the potential for Jason Arnott to lose the captaincy.  Both of those articles are well worth the read.  John has several interesting quotes from Barry Trotz on how Arnott has performed as Captain over the years.  Chris adds in the perspective from his colleagues in San Jose, Dallas, and Carolina- all teams that have changed their Captain without shipping them off.

Today (5/3), John Glennon published another article where Trotz and Poile discussed David Legwand’s offensive output this season (or lack thereof).  You know, I have mixed feelings on this article.  It’s definitely true that Legwand’s offensive output was much lower than was expected going into the season.  Of course, after the attempt to create a line of Legwand, Erat and Santorelli failed, Trotz altered Legwand’s role on the team to almost a pure shutdown role- a fact that Trotz has acknowledged on occasion.  That fact was not really addressed in the article or its quotes other than passing praise of his defensive efforts.  Let’s face it, there’s not going to be significant offensive output from a line that consistently ices Jerred Smithson (not a knock on Smithson, either).  It will be a line, however, that does a great job of shutting down the opposition’s top line- which it did.  On the other hand, the assessment of his lack of offensive output was uncharacteristically harsh- especially considering he was the absolute leader among the forwards in the Chicago series.  To me, I thought the timing and level of harshness from Trotz and Poile was pretty distasteful.

Personnel Options

As of now, David Poile has 18 players signed for next season at $42.7 million.  That includes Alexander Sulzer’s one-way contract as well as Wilson and Spaling’s two-way contracts.

Let’s consider the options before David Poile utilizing CapGeek’s Cap Calculator:

#1- No Trades, Sign Hornqvist and Go With Youth

Hornqvist is re-signed for $2.25 million, Cody Franson is re-signed for $1 million, and Blum ($941,666) and Sulzer ($650,000) are brought up to complete the blueline.  A backup goaltender is signed for $900,000 or less.  This brings the cap hit to $47.7 million- exceeding the self-imposed $45 million budget.  This is why I don’t think it is possible to field a team next season for $45 million and it be better.  More on that later.

#2- Increase the Budget to the Mid-Point

Not really much of a difference here given the numbers above.  Hornqvist is re-signed for $2.25 million, Francis Bouillon is re-signed for $1.5 million, Cody Franson is re-signed for $1 million, and Blum ($941,666) is brought up to complete the blueline.  A backup goaltender is signed for $900,000 or less.  Alexander Sulzer and Cal O’Reilly are both traded to free up the money to bring back Bouillon.  This brings the cap hit to $48 million.

#3- Trade of a Highly Paid Veteran (Or Retirement)

This is the trickiest of solutions as the only realistic options in my mind all have some type of no-movement clauses.  There is also the loyalty question.  All that aside, I see the potential for one of two men being moved: Jason Arnott or J.P. Dumont.  Some might throw in David Legwand, but I believe that he is too crucial to Trotz’s system to be moved.  The discussion regarding Arnott and the captaincy not only puts him as the most likely option, but might foster the desire on this part to move on (to be clear- this is complete speculation on my part).  Dumont’s reduced ice time throws him into the discussion as does the recent Legwand article.  For our purposes, let’s assume that Arnott is not on the team next season and see what options open up.

To me, this is Poile’s best case/dream scenario.  Let’s start with Hornqvist being re-signed for $2.25 million, Bouillon being re-signed for $1.5 million and either Franson or Blum plays for about $1 million.  Sulzer is traded.  If Blum is promoted, then Franson is traded.  Either or both could be included in the Arnott trade.  At this point, our payroll is at $43 million for a roster size of 20- short one defenseman.  Even if Franson or Sulzer is kept to fill that last spot, that keeps Nashville below their $45 million budget by about a million.  If they choose to exceed their internal budget, they could also re-sign one of Hamhuis or Grebeshkov and likely stay under the mid-point of the cap.  For the above scenarios, I chose to only consider draft picks brought back in trade, but any roster player would obviously have to be accounted for as well.

The point of this exercise is that there really aren’t a lot of options for Trotz and Poile from a personnel perspective unless one of the highly paid veterans are traded (or retires).  They really can’t even re-sign Hornqvist and stay under their self-imposed budget of $45 million.  Outside of the Leipold-induced purge, I expect this to be David Poile’s toughest offseason to date.

Coaching

From Bryan Mullen’s article, coaching changes are supposedly on the table.  In my opinion, this is not only the most cost effective way to introduce change, it’s one that’s needed.

The only way new personnel can truly be added to the power play scenario is to move a veteran like Arnott so that either Grebeshkov or a significant forward can be brought into the fold.  Given how unlikely that is, combined with lack of productivity over the years from the power play unit and the incredible failure in the playoffs, a coaching change is as justified as it is cost effective.

Removing Trotz should not be an option unless he is resistant to this type of change (apparently not the case).  Bringing in a power play coach, even at the expense of one of the current assistants, is just about the only practical solution open to the team if they are serious about finally improving the power play.

Final Thoughts

Both Trotz and Poile have pointed to the power play as being the “highest priority” and that no change is off the table in order to achieve that change.  Of course, they also saved their harshest words for their best forward in the playoffs (in an expanded role) who was charged with a primarily defensive role in the regular season while not having any harshness to that degree for the forwards that were supposed to provide significantly more offense than they did (Arnott, Dumont, and Steve Sullivan).

This offseason will be very telling.  Can the owner’s increase the budget safely?  Will they do so even if it’s a risk?  Can Poile or Trotz make the bold decision they seem to allude to in Mullen’s article?

They’ve come out forcibly expressing the need for change.  Gentlemen, you have the power to make the decisions for change and I look forward to watching how you both address the team’s “highest priority”.

If Nashville can put the heartbreak of the Game 5 loss behind them and win tonight, I like their chances in Game 7 on Wednesday.  The fact of the matter is that they had no business being 13 seconds from victory on Saturday and yet they were.  Out of three games in Chicago, they’ve won once, had the lead with 13 seconds to go once, and were defeated 3-0 after going into third down only one goal.  There’s every reason, as a Predator’s fan, to believe that they can defeat Chicago in a Game 7 at Chicago- especially considering all the pressure will be on Chicago.

First things first, however, and that means they have to win tonight.  Mentally, it could be very hard on the players to put the Game 5 loss behind them.  If this were any other incarnation of the Predators from the past, I wouldn’t like their chances.  But, after seeing the resiliency of this team displayed time and again this season, I think they have a good chance tonight.

It would help if they came out and played balls to the wall physical like they did in Game 3.  It would help if Patric Hornqvist can play and be effective.  It would help if Jason Arnott could begin to contribute.  It would be a huge benefit if they could actually score on the powerplay.

Marian Hossa

I, for one, am not surprised that no suspension was handed down by the NHL for Hossa’s dangerous play in Game 5.  In my opinion, the NHL under Gary Bettman has done many things right.  One thing they’ve always had a problem with however is integrity- meaning a lack thereof.  Bob McKenzie has previously stated at times how much integrity Colin Campbell has.  I love to read Bob and respect his opinions greatly and will trust him when he states that Campbell is man of integrity.  Unfortunately that integrity does not translate into the decisions on supplemental discipline- whoever makes that final call.  There is no integrity or accountability when it comes to officiating in the NHL and its supplemental discipline.  It’s also the primary reason that players should not give up their ability to police themselves.  They certainly can’t trust the League to do it.

Fallout to Come

Regardless of whether Nashville advances past Chicago, there must be some accountability for the years of a mostly below average powerplay.  I’ve long thought that Peter Horachek should be fired (even before his comments during the in-game interview for Game 4).

At this point, however, I think Barry should be given the ultimatum that a new coach should be brought in to focus on improving the powerplay.  He must then choose which assistant will lose their position to the new coach.

Some argue that it’s not the coach, but the personnel.  On the whole, I think that has little merit.  Regardless, it’s easier to replace a coach (or coaches) than the players, and someone should finally be held accountable.

Nashville’s complete incompetence on the powerplay is the reason this series is not already over- not the errors committed by Martin Erat, odd coaching decisions at the end of Game 5, etc.

Reports from Chicago indicate several line changes in an effort to get bigger and stronger so as to play with more effort and physicality.  I like the sound of that.  Chicago is a team that likes to play an up tempo game and use their speed and skill to put goals on the board.  I like the fact that they are having to adjust their game to that of the Nashville Predators.  That should provide an advantage to the Predators.  Will it be enough?  No.

To win, the Predators will have to play than they did in Game 3.  To win, the fans will have to push the team even more than they did in Game 3.  To win, the Predators will have to relish the opportunity to capitalize on Chicago’s attempt to play the Predator-way.

Keys to the Game

 Step Up the Physicality and Capitalize on Bad Positioning

If Chicago decides to truly focus on the physical game, it will likely result in some bad positioning.  The Predators need to match or exceed that physicality while also capitalizing on Chicago’s bad positioning.  Physical play on Pekka Rinne should not be tolerated in any fashion.

Pekka Rinne

Pekka will have to continue his dominant play and will probably have to handle several more flurries, especially in the early going.

Turn Chicago’s Adjustments Against Them

Chicago hasn’t been built and coached to play the Predator way.  Their attempts at changing their style should result in opportunities for Nashville.  They must convert those opportunities into goals to win this game.

Parting Shots

Game 3 saw Colin Wilson really begin assert himself.  He was physical, smart, and put shots on the net.  I don’t know if he’s starting to get comfortable, the energy of the game and/or crowd, or something else.  Whatever it was, it’d be nice to see Wilson take another step tonight and score his first postseason goal.

Speaking of first postseason goals, it’d be nice to see Hornqvist back on the ice to bring the physical play and frustration all the way to Antti Niemi and be rewarded with his first goal.

Final Prediction

Tonight will see a tighter checking game.  It will see the Predators score their first PP goal of the postseason as well as Pekka Rinne’s first shutout of the postseason.

Predators win tonight 3-0, with Cody Franson scoring a PP goal.  Colin Wilson will tally and Legwand will put in an empty netter.

Other Good Reads

Dirk has his preview of tonight up at On The Forecheck.  Paul McCann his preview available as well over at HockeyBuzz.

 From the perspective of the Blackhawks, Al Cimaglia has his thoughts about tonight up as well here on HockeyIndependent.

The set started with fans doing their own rendition of Decibel and You Shook Me All Night Long.

Then Pekka Rinne did his version of Shoot to Thrill as he misplayed a puck onto his on net and had to make a diving save to prevent the score in his own net.

David Legwand teamed up Steve Sullivan for their rendition of Heatseeker and then backed up Shea Weber on Thunderstruck and Joel Ward for Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap.

Several players including Shea Weber, Francis Bouillon, and Jordin Tootoo performed a group version of If You Want Blood (You’ve Got It), Walk All Over You, and T.N.T..

The night ended with the entire team serenading the fans with For Those About to Rock (We Salute You) and the fans doing an encore performance of You Shook Me All Night Long.

As great as that concert was, it’s time to move on to the next one.

Looking Ahead…

Thursday night represents a significant step for this franchise and its players.  It’s an opportunity to grab a 3-1 series lead for the first time in franchise history.  It’s an opportunity to assert their own will over the Chicago Blackhawks.  It’s an opportunity to defend their own ice.  It’s an opportunity to go back to Chicago and end the series where they’ve focused so much of their offseason work- on the road.

To do that, it will take another performance like last night for each and every player and each and every fan in the Bridgestone Arena.

Last night was fun.  Now, let’s forget it and plan for Thursday night.

Tonight, the Nashville Predators completed another historic “first” for the young franchise.  With their 4-1 win over the Chicago Blackhawks in Chicago, they won the first road playoff game in their 11^th attempt.

Last time, I presented my keys for Nashville to win the game (and series).  Let’s grade how well they did on those.

Contain Chicago Goal Scorers- B+

Patrick Kane only got one shot on goal, but it went in.  Hossa had three shots and looked especially dangerous all night.  Toews was dangerous, but was held pretty well in check.  Perhaps the most dangerous forward was Patrick Sharp.  Sharp really used his speed and poured six shots on net.  The really impressive aspect was how the Predator’s team defense really recovered from the first two periods and ultimately limited Chicago to 26 shots.

Convert Shots Into Goals- B

It took two periods, but Nashville finally put shots on net.  Their reward was a soft goal allowed by Niemi that seemed to affect him for the rest of the night.  If they can continue playing like this on Sunday for all three periods, they could head back to Nashville with a 2 games to 0 lead.

Take Advantage of Health- A

I really thought the Predators did a great job of limiting the effectiveness of the Chicago defensemen.  The entire Chicago blueline was relatively quiet.

Win Goaltending Battle- A+

Tonight, both Pekka Rinne and Anti Niemi had to deal with pressure.  Rinne had to deal with significant pressure for the first two periods.  He responded extremely well this night.  He allowed one goal when a rebound got away from him, but shook it off angrily and never allowed another.  Niemi wasn’t tested until the third when he allowed a soft goal.  After that goal, both Niemi and the rest of the Blackhawks were visibly deflated.  For tonight, Niemi succumbed to the pressure and began to fight the puck and leave rebounds- one of which was converted by J.P. Dumont off of the mini Legwand breakaway.

Hightlights

Pekka Rinne

Playing his first ever NHL playoff game against the talented, fast, and dangerous Blackhawks, Rinne stood tall.  He was positionally sound and was the key to allowing the Predators to take over the third period and win the game.

David Legwand

Perhaps just as crucial to the win as Rinne, Legwand was all over the ice defensively and offensively.  He finished the night with 2A and a +3 and led the team with 5 SOG.  You read that right, Legwand led the team with 5 SOG.  The only real knock was his 38% faceoff percentage.

J.P. Dumont

One might call Dumont lucky.  In my mind Dumont made his own luck.  He put pucks on net and it resulted a soft goal that turned the tide of the game.  Then he springs Legwand for the mini breakaway and smartly follows up so as to be in position to put the rebound in.

Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, Dan Hamhuis, Francis Bouillon, Kevin Klein, and Cody Franson

While not a perfect night, especially for the first two periods, this group did a very good job of limiting Chicago to mostly outside shots and keeping the slot clear.  In the third, Chicago could not put any pressure on Rinne.

Steve Sullivan and Joel Ward

Really key plays by both defensively several times.  Perhaps none more so than Ward successfully keeping Toews from following through on a shot on a clearly beaten Rinne.  Sullivan was also dangerous offensively and had a very good night on the offensive boards against the generally larger Chicago players.

Parting Shots

Welcome to the playoffs to Patric Hornqvist from Marian Hossa and Colin Wilson from Brent Seabrook.

Provided the Predators aren’t satisfied going by to Nashville with a split, I like their chances of going back to Nashville with a 2-0 series lead.  Antti Niemi ended this game rattled.  If they score first on Sunday, I like their chances.

Back after another long absence due to my real job, let’s look at the Nashville-Chicago series from the perspective of the Predators.  How can Nashville win this game?  Read on.

Shots on Goal

During the entire regular season, Nashville was 12^th in the League in averaging 30.6 S/G (Chicago was first with 34.1 S/G).  Chicago was also tops in the League by averaging a low 25.1 SA/G while Nashville was 8^th in that category by averaging 29.2 SA/G.

Against each other, however, Nashville only averaged a paltry 22.8 shots a game, while Chicago only dropped to 31.7 shots.  Nashville’s team defense had a fair impact on Chicago, but Chicago’s team defense had a much larger impact on Nashville.

For Nashville to win, they must reach average right around 30 shots a game while limit to Chicago to around the same amount.  To do that, they will have to battle against Chicago’s ability to possess the puck offensively as well as consistently moving their own feet in the offensive zone in order to get clear looks on net.

Contain Chicago Goal Scorers

Everyone knows the offensive skill and talent that Chicago brings to the table.  In looking at the previous six games with Chicago (three included Marian Hossa), Nashville had trouble containing Kane (3G), Toews (1 G, assisted Kane often), Dustin Byfuglien (3G), and the Ladd/Kopecky combination (3G, multiple assists).  For the three games in which he played, Hossa was limited to a single point (1A).

Klein and Hamhuis had the most trouble containing the Chicago forwards (particularly Byfuglien as he scored 2 of his 3 goals on that pairing).  Weber and Suter also had some difficulties.  That said, defense starts with the forwards.  Chicago realizes that which is why they lead the league in SA/G.  The Nashville forwards have to play defense equally as well as Chicago’s.

Convert Shots into Goals

Martin Erat, Dan Hamhuis, and Joel Ward were especially effective scoring goals against Chicago’s defense.  It will take more than those three to push Nashville past Chicago.  Nashville fans can take some optimism from the fact that almost all of the games against Chicago were prior to Colin Wilson’s recent contributions and Hornqvist cranking up.  Even so, the Predators need the Legwand line to at least stay E for the series and get points from two of Arnott, Sullivan and Dumont.

On the negative side, Nashville is going through a severe goal-scoring drought right now.  It’s severe enough that Rinne posted two losses even though they were shutouts (Phoenix and Detroit).

Take Advantage of Health

Nashville must be able to take advantage of their health advantage.  They have practically a completely healthy team.  Chicago’s injuries to Campbell (especially) removes a player that has had past success against Nashville while also forcing another Predator Killer in Byfuglien to the blueline and out from in front of the Predator goalies.  This should provide significant help in both producing shots and limiting Chicago’s shots.  Nashville must press this advantage.

Win Goaltending Battle

Rinne played three regular season games against Chicago, going 1-2 with a 0.924 SV% and 2.33 GAA.  Those are actually good numbers at a time when Rinne was not playing very well overall.  Since the Olympic break, however, Rinne has been on a tear.  For Nashville to win, he has to continue at his current pace and hope that Nashville picks up their recent scoring woes.

Nashville only played Antti Niemi once.  Niemi posted a 4.00 GAA and 0.750 SV% in that game.  He also won (Ellis posted a 5.00 GAA and 0.828 SV% as Nashville collapsed early in the 3^rd period, fought back, and then succumbed in the final minute- six total 3^rd period goals scored).  If Niemi plays that poorly against Nashville again, then Chicago will lose and/or be forced to turn to Huet.  Of course, Niemi has recently tightened his grip on the starting role and has been playing at a level near that of Rinne recently (albeit over a smaller set of games and time).  The battle between Rinne and Niemi will certainly be one to watch, but less so I believe than the other factors above.

Summary

If Nashville can achieve at least three of those four things, they should win this series.  It’s a tall order for sure with perhaps converting their shots into goals being the toughest right now.

Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and Dan Hamhuis must certainly lead the blueline and defensive efforts- and I expect them to do just that.  Pekka Rinne must continue to play very well- and I expect him to do that.

Ultimately, however, I believe this series will be won or lost by the Predator forwards- both defensively and offensively.  If they can’t keep Chicago’s shot totals down and/or to the outside as well as being able to convert their own scoring chances, Nashville will lose.  If they can do both, Nashville wins as I have little doubt about the abilities of the blueline and goaltending.

The rollercoaster has reached heights that many across the league didn’t think possible in consistently staying around the 5^th or 6^th seed in the Western Conference.  For Nashville fans, a lot of the ride to this point has been upside down: one of the worst penalty kill units in the league is certainly not normal for a Barry Trotz coached team.  Their fans have even frequently got to experience a House of Horrors with this team when Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Klein are on the ice together.  Enough terrible writing and onto just plain bad writing.

A+

Patric Hornqvist- Hornqvist is a second year player that currently leads the team in goals (17), plus/minus (+10), game winning goals (4), power play goals (6) and is fourth on the team in points (27).  Outside of a one-game benching, he really has performed much better than anyone had the right to expect.  All of that while spending significant amounts of time on the third line.  All of his hard work and willingness to play around the net has rightfully earned him a spot on the Swedish Olympic team.

A

Ryan Suter- Ryan Suter has been Nashville’s best overall defenseman this season.  He leads the team in total ice time per game (23:59), is a +4, and is in the top six in time on ice for both power play and penalty kill situations.  His excellent play has earned him an Olympic bid as well- for the United States.

B+

David Legwand- David Legwand is an enigma to most Nashville fans too blinded by his draft position to truly understand his value to this team.  Legwand has impressive defensive skills that’s allowed Barry Trotz to pit Legwand against the opposing team’s top line night after night.  While he’s gifted offensively as well, he started very, very slowly in that respect.  Despite that slow start, he’s turned a corner since and has become another offensive threat.

Marcel Goc- Marcel Goc has been a pleasant surprise for Predator fans.  He’s been defensively responsible (+5) while still chipping in 16pts.  He’s really benefitted from having J.P. Dumont on his line.  He’s also done pretty well in the faceoff dot as well at 52.6%.

Jerred Smithson- If I could choose any word to describe Smithson’s season (and since I’m writing this, I can), it would be fascinating.  Smithson has long been considered a very good defensive forward.  He’s also very good at faceoffs and on penalty kill situations.  This season has seen him playing with Joel Ward and David Legwand.  That line is given the job of shutting down the top line every night.  While excelling at that, Jerred has discovered that he can put a few in the back of the net.  If it weren’t for the downturn of the penalty kill results, he’d easily have a higher grade.

Joel Ward- Unable to participate in training camp, yet he still has produced 22 points after the slow start.  Ward has combined with Smithson and Legwand to really provide a great two-way second line.  I can’t remember the last time Ward took a night off.

Barry Trotz, Peter Horachek, and Brent Peterson- It’s really hard to argue with 55pts and being very much in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.  That said, it’s a team whose achievements to this point are in spite of the power play units, penalty kill units, relatively flat play at home, and multiple defensive breakdowns.  Someone also has to explain the consistent pairing of Hamhuis and Klein.  The results are consistently beyond poor- even strength and on the penalty kill.

B

Martin Erat- With Martin Erat, there has been no gray (or grey for our Canadian friends) area.  Erat started the season about as bad offensively and defensively one could possibly start.  It didn’t help that he had the largest contract on the team salary-wise for this season.  Many fans were hoping to see him dealt.  And then someone flipped a switch and Erat has stormed to near the top of the team in generating points.  He’s easily been the most dangerous sniper on the team since.  He’s the only player on the team with an adjusted shot percentage (including blocks and misses) in double digits (13%).

Shea Weber- Shea Weber is Nashville’s version of Wild Thing.  Weber can shoot the puck with such power.  Unfortunately, they more often than not miss the target.  He has almost double the number of missed shots of anyone else on the team (81 to Joel Ward’s 48).  I wonder what Shea would look like with the skull and crossbones glasses and would they help?  When he does find the net, the results are positive.  Weber’s misfirings along with the perception of being hampered by an early season foot injury seems to have him a little off.  His off play is better than many others.

Cody Franson- Cody hasn’t played at the same level of Weber and Suter to be sure.  Nor has he played against the competition those two have.  That’s no reason to sell him short though.  After a less than spectacular training camp, he’s take advantage of his opportunities once called up.  He leads all defensemen with a +6 and has provided additional offense from the blueline.  He’s made a real contribution to the Predators this season.

Pekka Rinne- Pekka has not played as well as last season to be sure.  He isn’t tracking the puck as well and appears to be overplaying opponents much more frequently.  That said, he’s still giving his team more than a fair chance on most nights.  He and Dan have both been victimized a little too often by the defense in front of them.

B-

Dan Ellis- Ellis is Nashville’s 1B goaltender for good reason.  He’s having another good year even though he’s still fighting rebound control some.  Much like Rinne, he’s been left out in the cold by the team in front of him much too often this season.  Dan’s puckhandling ability has also proven useful as well.

Jason Arnott- It’s only fitting that the team’s captain best embodies the rollercoaster in play that has been the team’s season.  Arnott has been very streaky.  When inspired, he is a player to be feared.  I only wish that inspiration would strike a little more often.  As captain, I also look at Arnott when the team plays flat at home- which has occurred much too often.

Francis Bouillon- Another surprise free agent signing this past offseason.  Bouillon has really brought a steadying presence to the blueline along with a needed dose of physicality.  Regardless of his partner, he’s been a solid, solid addition to this team.

Dan Hamhuis (Jekyll)- I struggled over how to grade both Hamhuis and Klein.  Both have looked beyond terrible this season, yet both have looked really solid as well.  Since the results have been consistent (terrible together, different players when apart) I decided to grade them as such.  When paired with someone other than Klein (usually Franson), Hamhuis has been fairly solid.  He’s turned up the offense this season, while turning down the physicality however.

JP Dumont- Another very streaky player.  Dumont started the season on the top line with Arnott and Sullivan with some success.  As all three have struggled somewhat (and fought injuries), they have all struggled with consistency.  Dumont is on the rise again having found chemistry with Marcel Goc.

C+

Steve Sullivan- Sully leads the team with 29 points.  He’s still really dangerous with the puck on his stick.  The downside is that he’s second on the team in giveaways (one behind Legwand) with less ice time.  His timing at losing the puck has really been a problem for a team that is built more for a puck possession game this season.  He seems to have lost a little bit of a step as well.

C-

Ryan Jones- Started out invisible and spent a lot of time in Milwaukee.  Brought back up and appeared to hit a new gear.  He’s starting to get invisible again however.

Kevin Klein (Jekyll)- See Dan Hamhuis’s grade for the full story.  When paired with Bouillon, they’ve proven to be a solid pair.  Klein still makes a number of mistakes, but he is, essentially, a second year player (something easy to forget) at the NHL level.  Of course, he’s also from the same draft that brought Nashville Shea Weber and Ryan Suter.  He can only live on his breathtaking speed for so long.

D

Mike Santorelli- After a very strong training camp on a line with Erat and Legwand, the trio fell like a lead balloon at the start of the season.  Santorelli never rebounded like Erat and Legwand.  Being a rookie, he’s also on a shorter leash.  I’m on record wanting to see the rookies and younger players given a better chance by the coaching staff.  That doesn’t eliminate the need for those players to grasp tightly to every opportunity they have at this level.  Unlike Hornqvist, Santorelli has not been able to do that outside of some great moments in the shootout.

Wade Belak- While not given a lot of opportunities, Belak really hasn’t capitalized on the ones he’s had.  Nashville’s poor play on the penalty kill has probably had an influence as well.  That said, Predators fans have seen too many liberties taken with their favorite players this season.

F

Dan Hamhuis (Hyde) and Kevin Klein (Hyde)- This is just the damndest thing.  These two go together as well as oil and water.  Not only do they consistently not play well together, they unfortunately get plenty of opportunities to prove that.  Knowledgeable Predator fans have noted Klein’s propensity for not communicating on the ice (notably SLake).  While that would certainly contribute to the problems, one would think it would equally affect his other partners.  That really hasn’t been the case.

Incomplete

All of the following players have been in and out of the lineup enough that I can’t give them a fair grade.  All have made some positive contributions to the team this season at one time or another.

Jordin Tootoo

Cal O’Reilly

Alexander Sulzer

Dave Scatchard

Colin Wilson

Andreas Thuresson

Nick Spaling

Final Thoughts

Firstly, I have to apologize for another long spell without an entry.  The holidays, work, and a lack of televised games really has taken their toll on me.  Since we are about to kick off a new, several month-long project at work, I hope to be able to devote more time to another occupation I love.

Finally, I close by passing along the information for local Nashville fans that Eric Yutzy is leaving NewsChannel5.  For those in the Nashville area, you already know that the enthusiasm and professionalism that Eric brought to the Nashville airwaves were the best of the best.  His efforts in reporting the hockey news were trumped only by his willingness to come to the message boards and talk hockey.  For those that would like to leave their well wishes for Eric, he’s posted his goodbye’s on the official Predator forum.

Perhaps the most stunning story he’s ever brought to us is the story of Chase Donnell.  If you’ve never watched the amazing and heart-wrenching video, please do so.

Eric, good luck in Indianapolis.  It would be an understatement to say they are getting a fine sportscaster.

Penalty Kill

You know, there’s not much to say here.  You don’t have to know anything about hockey to know that the current trend of allowing two power play goals a game isn’t playing with fire, it’s playing with matches while standing over a natural gas leak.

Increase Blueline Production

Nashville’s blueline has to get many more of their shots on net.  They’ve been off the score sheet too much as well.  While both Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are in the top 30 scoring defensemen across the league, they significantly trail their talent-level peers like Mike Green, Dan Boyle, and Tomas Kaberle.  If they could get those pucks on net, their assists should naturally go up.

Wait Until the Postseason to Shorten the Bench

Particularly this season with the compressed schedule, it is especially important to consistently roll four lines and not have the top six consistently achieving 20+ minutes a night.  A way has to be found to split those minutes up.  If that means playing the rookies more, then so be it.  If we don’t I’m afraid there won’t be a second gear available in the postseason.

The Hamhuis-Klein Pairing

This is so vexing for two reasons.  On paper, they should be a really good combination, but in reality, they are anything but.  The most confusing thing to me is why the staff went back to that pairing.  It didn’t work before and really isn’t working now.  I just don’t see the chemistry.

In the Moment

While there may be several things this team can do to both get better now and for the postseason, there’s no reason to not enjoy their current play.

Barry Trotz has the guys playing well essentially from A to Z on the roster.  Patric Hornqvist and Ryan Jones are providing him with options both at even strength and with the man advantage.  Pekka Rinne and Dan Ellis are both playing well enough.  The current line combinations are providing enough depth scoring to make keying in on the Sullivan-Arnott-Erat line dangerous, and that line is making it dangerous for the opposition to not attempt to focus on shutting it down.

If they keep their focus, and continue to improve those problem areas, there’s no reason to not believe that this team is “for real”.

You can find great takes on last night’s win from Mark and Dirk.

You are cordially invited to a Pity Party on 501 Broadway in Nashville, TN.  This is a recurring party held the day after every loss by the Nashville Predators.

Thanks to Dirk Hoag, The Forechecker, I read a piece by Minnesota Star Tribune columnist Michael Russo today- Sunday Insider: A Nashville State of Mind.  Russo’s article focuses on how Nashville builds a competitive team each year despite the fact that Nashville operates on an internal budget somewhere around (or south of) the midpoint of the salary cap.  It’s a good article that I recommend everyone read with only a couple of things in which I might quibble over.  That said, there were a few quotes in that article that really got to me.

“The business side and hockey side, there’s a different reality,” Trotz said. “If we could ever keep our team together, I’d say we could be an upper-echelon team if we were just able to spend the cap. But we can’t.”

Since the lockout, the Predators have had to either trade or let walk Paul Kariya, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, Tomas Vokoun, Chris Mason and Marek Zidlicky. Trotz quickly throws the underrated Zanon right onto that list.

First, I have a minor quibble with Russo’s article as I examine this section.  As the focus of the article appears to be how Nashville is building a competitive team despite losing some players due to an internal budget, I feel that it should be known and understood that the departures of Kariya, Timonen, Hartnell, and Vokoun had nothing to do with any internal budgets established by the current ownership group.  They were all salary dumps forced by an owner looking to sell in Craig Leipold.  Secondly, I don’t know that I’d consider Mason, Zidlicky or Zanon as strict salary dumps either.  Mason had lost his starting position to Dan Ellis and Nashville had a young goalie in the pipeline that they needed to bring up and play prior to him becoming an RFA in Pekka Rinne.  Zidlicky was a very good offensive defenseman, and Zanon a very good defensive defenseman, but Nashville has a very strong blueline and I wouldn’t replace anyone on that group for either Zidlicky or Zanon.  Minor quibbles that I felt must be said, but not the focus of my missive.

I’m more perturbed by Coach Trotz’s statements.  Trotz continues regarding the Zanon situation:

 ”We knew exactly what you guys were getting,” Trotz said of Zanon, arguably the Wild’s best defenseman this season. “We wanted to have Zanon back, too, but we’re in a different place than you guys. We had to make some decisions, and what we had for his number, it couldn’t work. That’s just what we are. You’re a cap team. We’re not.”

If he truly feels that he can’t ice an upper-echelon team with the talent he’s provided, then perhaps he either needs to move on or do a better job with the talent that’s been provided.

To be fair, Trotz has always done an admirable job with the Nashville Predators.  He’s had to deal with a lot of off-ice distractions and a one-season roster purge after finishing 3pts from the President’s Cup.  He’s certainly established a culture of hard work, grit, and skating.  From everything I’ve seen in print and in person, he’s a great person as well.

He’s also established a track record of icing teams that go on long winning streaks and long losing streaks.  He’s established a track record of icing a team that goes whole season without a power play above a 20% conversion rate regardless of available talent.  He’s established a track record of teams that have several games in a row where the effort or mental fatigue is so bad that often only really good goaltending keeps the opponent’s score at single digits (see almost every game against Minnesota and the last game with Calgary this season).  He’s established a track record of playing talented rookie forwards in every situation except one that corresponds with their skills.  Nashville is not like a Detroit, Pittsburgh, or Atlanta (who are nearly $8 million under the cap) that has an elite/superstar forward (or more) that is a difference maker.  They must fully utilize all of their assets.  This appears to be understood by players like J.P. Dumont.

The Predators’ overall team game is their identity. They always skate well. They always work hard. “The [salary-cap] stuff, we know we cannot control anything other than the way we play. So we take pride in all playing together and being a tough team to beat,” said winger J.P. Dumont, part of the core the Predators have been able to retain long-term. “We know we don’t have that guy as a difference maker, so we do it with excellent goaltending, a team game and a young core of defensemen that’s better than anybody else in the league.”

Apparently the “team game” rarely includes skilled rookie forwards like a Rich Peverly, Mike Santorelli, Cal O’Reilly, or Patric Hornqvist in any offensive role unless absolutely necessary.  Hornqvist is fourth overall in PP TOI for Nashville forwards and fifth in PP TOI per game.  That’s the exception.  O’Reilly and Santorelli are 9^th and 10^th in PP TOI per game.  There are a couple of exceptions here and there- again to be fair.  Santorelli switched from center to wing and started on the second line with Legwand and Erat.  Of course, the for the first few games Coach Trotz explicitly stated that the Legwand line was given the shutdown role against the top lines.  Not only were they not really there for offense, Legwand and Erat got off to horribly slow starts but Santorelli took the fall by being reassigned without attempting to move him around. 

Recently, Trotz has decided to hide the rookies on a fourth line together in which he rarely ices.  [sarcasm]That certainly develops those guys.[/sarcasm]  It also wears out the veterans that are being double-shifted night in and night out.  I do agree with Trotz in that David Poile mostly provides quality players and prospects for Trotz and his staff.

 Trotz gives credit to General Manager David Poile and his staff. The Predators perennially scout well, draft well and have one of the deepest catalogs of prospects.

“We find people to fill holes, we’ve got to develop people, and we have to make good hockey decisions as best we can, and then find a style of play that will let us be successful,” Trotz said. “But you also have to have the right mindset.

“If you don’t have the right mindset and just feel sorry for yourself, well, then you just feel sorry for yourself.”

The right mindset is to utilize all assets at your disposal to win games.  Poile has provided four rookie forwards that have offensive skills that could be utilized in Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist, Cal O’Reilly and Mike Santorelli.  Barry Trotz should quit worrying about who he doesn’t have and put the players on his team in the best position to succeed in order to win the game while at the same time developing the younger players so that they can contribute. 

He should follow his own advice and quit feeling sorry for himself.  It comes back to that old Predators mantra: “No Excuses”.

Even Strength – B+

Overall, Nashville played a disciplined and defensive game.  They only allowed one penalty to a te am that is very fast and aggressive.  Many of the shots allowed were from the perimeter.  When Chicago did drive the net (often Toews), Ellis did a great job of closing the door.  Weber and Legwand were also noticeable on one play in particular in helping Ellis keep the puck out of the net.  The Erat-Goc-Tootoo line played a very good game offensively, rebounding from an off game against Minnesota the game before.  Most impressively, after a night of very sloppy play in Minnesota, the Predators finish the game with Chicago with only one giveaway.  The kids played a solid game and contributed as O’Reilly and Franson both picked up assists on the Hamhuis goal which was made possible by Patric Hornqvist’s excellent screen of Huet.  The Smithson-Legwand-Ward line continued to play very solid on both ends and were able to convert on one of the two 2 – 1 rushes they generated from Chicago turnovers.

Penalty Kill – C+

The penalty kill units were able to keep Chicago off the score sheet in their only power play of the night.  That said, Chicago was able to keep tremendous pressure on the Predators.  I believe Nashville was both fortunate and smart to play as disciplined as possible to limit the number of opportunities for those strong Chicago power play units.

Power Play – C-

Nashville had two opportunities with the man advantage.  On their first, Chicago’s aggressive kill unit kept the puck in the Nashville end and generated several good chances.  Their second effort was much better overall.  Nashville needs to find a way, however, to consistently get better results from their power play units.  To win consistently in the NHL, it is crucial to have a power play contribute something game in and game out.

Goaltending – A

Dan Ellis played a great game against Chicago.  The only goal he allowed was a highlight reel goal against a great player in Jonathan Toews.  That will happen against a player like that.  Otherwise, Dan tracked the puck well and was able to keep the rebounds from out front.

Final Thoughts

• It must be a great comfort to the coaching staff to know that they have two very good goaltenders.  Like all other goaltenders, including the legends, they both go through a few rough outings from time to time.  More times than not, however, they both play very solidly and can steal a game here and there.

• As I speculated in my last blog, based upon the quotes from Barry Trotz obtained by John Glennon, Santorelli was sent back to Milwaukee and replaced in the lineup by Cal O’Reilly.  Tonight, the kids came through.  With the talent of O’Reilly, Santorelli, Jones, and Hornqvist I fully expect them to contribute from time to time.  I also fully expect them to have a tougher time consistently contributing if they stay together as a line.

• Tonight, the Predators will take to the home ice against the Minnesota Wild.  Who will be in goal?  I’ve not heard any rumblings yet, but I would expect Pekka Rinne for two reasons: (1) Ellis played last night and (2) Rinne, while certainly not on top of his game last time in Minnesota, he was not the primary reason the Predators dropped that game.

Quite frankly, the belief that a team on a budget in this salary cap age can’t be successful is completely false at best and an excuse in the making at worst.  Look at the teams with at least $7 million of projected cap space (courtesy of capgeek.com).  Nashville, Phoenix, Dallas and Columbus are all tied for 6^th in the Western Conference with 31pts.  L.A. is 5^th with 34pts and Colorado is 4^th with 35pts.  Atlanta is 5^th in the Eastern Conference with 31pts and Tampa is 8^th with 28pts.  Only the Islanders in the East and St. Louis in the West are currently out of playoff position- and we Predator fans all know what St. Louis is capable of achieving.  If 80% of those teams projected to have a final payroll near the midpoint are playing at a playoff level, why is there so much focus on those teams that have a budget?  Much of the time it coincides with the fact that many of those teams working on a budget are a recent expansion team, a non-traditional market, or both- and it is another item in the list of reasons of why one of those teams can’t be successful for those ignorant of the facts.  Putting that aside for the moment, I’m not naïve enough to say that there is no difference to operating a team on a stricter budget as opposed to one where the only monetary limitations are the League’s cap.  So, how are those teams doing it?  While there is a little variance, there is a strong commonality.

It starts with youth.  Then you have to have the right mix of veterans including an elite or superstar forward.  In this salary cap world every team, regardless of their budget, has to find that mix.  Those teams restricted to not exceeding the midpoint should still be able to have one elite/superstar forward if a proper mix of cheap youth and good role playing veterans exist and are utilized.

How does Nashville compare to that group?  Nashville does not have that elite/superstar forward.  They do pay a couple of forwards (Martin Erat and David Legwand) a little too near that level, but not onerously so.  Nashville does have a lot of cheap, youthful talent in Cal O’Reilly, Mike Santorelli, Patric Hornqvist and Colin Wilson.  The problem that I see in Nashville is that there isn’t enough support given to the young players.  There are enough very good veterans on this team’s forward core to spread out over three lines and allow those young players to be put into the best position possible to succeed while being mentored.  What we typically see, however, are rookies bunched together on the third line with little support or mentorship on the ice.  They don’t produce enough at the NHL level and then they get sent to Milwaukee and another rookie called up.  Two weeks later, after that rookie didn’t produce, places will likely be swapped again because they were “tearing it up in Milwaukee”.  Rinse and repeat.

Early this season, injuries forced Patric Hornqvist to play on the top two lines.  He responded by being the best forward on the ice overall.  While the team didn’t win as much, that was mainly due to the injuries being to those key veterans.  This team still needs both skilled youth and skilled talent.  Now that everyone is healthy, Coach Trotz has both at his disposal.  Instead, Santorelli and Hornqvist are playing together on the third line and are seeing dwindling ice time.  Playing those guys less than ten minutes a night on the third line won’t make them or the team better in the long term.  It will also tire out those veterans that are not elite enough to carry the whole team for several games at a stretch.  The team will likely go on several streaks, both winning and losing.  That sounds familiar.  That game against Calgary was a pretty good example of that rebound effect.

Earlier this season, I threw out some line suggestions.  Since then, the personnel has changed, but the philosophy still stands.  Build lines that play an aggressive forechecking style.  To add to that, split those rookies up and allow them to succeed or fail under the tutelage of the veterans on this team.  I suspect that Sullivan, Arnott, Dumont, Ward, Legwand and Erat can teach those kids a thing or two.  It also might help those veterans to not have to carry the burden alone.  If it betters the team, Sullivan, Arnott and Dumont should gladly accept being split.  That’s what professionals and leaders would do.

As a final thought, this team would be better by adding a superstar player even at the cost of a Sullivan, Arnott, Dumont, Legwand or Erat (and a prospect or two).  A superstar can consistently take over a game and help reduce the streakiness of the team.  They can also accelerate the mentorship of talented youngsters.  Nashville came close with Phil Kessel.  There are some superstars, like a Kovalchuk, that a play should be made for if it’s there.  That said, those guys can definitely choose where they want to play and Nashville could be locked out due to that.  Money should not be a concern however.  If David Poile could have brought Kessel into the fold at the price he signed for by trading off one of our veteran forwards and some prospects (even bringing in a third team if necessary), then he should have made that move(s).  I’m not privy to the situation, so I don’t know.  What I do know is that you can be a low budget team, pay a superstar the market rate, and still succeed.

UPDATED:

James Mirtle has a pretty good look at what Phil Kessel has done since his return to the ice and its impact on Toronto.  Again, Kessel may not have wanted to play in Nashville- I don’t know.  If so, the issue is moot.  If money was the sole issue, however, then a bad decision was made (which happens, but it should serve as a lesson learned).

Last night saw the Nashville Predators skate off the ice with their 6th win in a row and their 11^th in their past 14 games.  Pekka Rinne has ten of those eleven wins in that time frame.

Martin Erat led the way on the score sheet with two goals, while the leaders on this team continue their own recent excellent play offensively- Arnott (1G), Legwand (1A), Sullivan (1A) and Weber (1A).  Rinne had another standout game, particularly in keeping Detroit off the score sheet in the third period.

If Chris Osgood hadn’t been playing so well, Erat would have had another goal or two.  Marcel Goc should also have entered the score sheet after a good 2 – 0 rush along with Jordin Tootoo.

Special mention should also go to Legwand, Mike Santorelli, Jerred Smithson, and Goc for their excellent work in the faceoff dot.  All were better than 55% with Santorelli leading the way at 71%.  Only Jason Arnott had an off night at 37%.

Great job by the team in aggressively forechecking the Wings in the first and second periods.  That forechecking allowed the Predators to maintain possession of the puck for significant stretches of time resulting in penalties and quality shot chances.  Unfortunately, they were unable to keep that aggressive play going through the third period.  I think that was one part playing more defensively and one part just being tired.  The team did not seem to be moving their feet quite as well in the third period.  I expect it is reasonable that this long stretch of hockey of having a game essentially every other day is starting to take some type of toll on the team.  On the other hand, this long stretch has probably helped Rinne stay focused.

Next up is a road game in Colorado on Wednesday night.  Colorado is coming off a win last night against Philadelphia, but is 2-3 in their last five games.  I expect Pekka Rinne in to be in net for that game and probably the St. Louis game on Friday.  I think Dan Ellis will probably get the Saturday night start against Florida, while Rinne returns for the Monday night game against Calgary.

Fortunately, Mark has been doing great work covering the Predators for HockeyIndependent.  Hopefully he and BD won’t realize they don’t need me, because I do enjoy it.

It’s been about two weeks since my last blog entry- the same day the Predators lost at Anaheim 4-0.  Since that time, Nashville has been an impressive 4-1 and should have been a perfect 5-0.

How has Nashville made this run?  It starts with stability in net.  Pekka Rinne appears to have rounded into form and is playing with some obvious swagger.  Hopefully, Trotz won’t be quite so quick to swap the starting goalie from one night to the next.

It also helps to be getting healthy.  The Steve Sullivan, Jason Arnott, and J.P. Dumont line has been reunited after having all three are healthy at the same time and is starting to have some success- particularly Sullivan and Dumont.

Depth scoring is coming on.  Patric Hornqvist, Joel Ward, Jared Smithson, David Legwand, and Mike Santorelli have all made recent contributions.  Even Martin Erat has made some contributions (although still on the low side).

As it often times does, specials teams has played a large role in the recent success- both the power play units and the penalty kill units.  After awful starts by both, both are starting to climb out of the cellar.

Another factor that shouldn’t be overlooked is the contributions made by the talented, yet young blueline.  The defensive pairings have stabilized with Kevin Klein and Dan Hamhuis playing much better of late.  Cody Franson has been more than competent at succeeding in the situations afforded to him by the coaching staff.

Tonight brings another test for the rising confidence of this team.  Martin Brodeur doesn’t have too many off games, so it will be incumbent on Hornqvist and Ward to keep Brodeur uncomfortable in the blue paint.  If the Predators can keep up their trend in puck possession and generating shots on goal, there’s no reason they can’t come out with another solid win.  It’s also time for the line of Martin Erat, Mike Santorelli and Patric Hornqvist to make additional contributions to the score sheet.

Around the NHL

If you’re a NHL fan, you would have to be living under a rock to not be aware of the largest gaffe I’ve seen in a long time in last night’s Stars and Red Wings game.  If the NHL had any respect for its players and its fans, it would own up to the fact that Brad May’s goal should have counted and attempt to explain how corrections will be made to ensure that doesn’t’ happen again.  Unfortunately, they don’t and they won’t.

Al has posted an entry regarding the Blackhawks’s attempt at re-signing Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane, and Johnathon Toews.  There’s a very interesting thread over at HFBoards discussing how Chicago might have troubles having open tagging space for those contracts potentially forcing Chicago to move players before they could reactivate Marian Hossa from Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR).  While I don’t think there is any chance of it happening, I’d love to see Patrick Sharp in a Predators uniform.

On a final note, the NHL GM’s recently met to discuss several issues.  On that agenda was discussion regarding the increase in the number of reckless hits to the head and what, if anything, should be done.  As so often happens in a meeting, action was delayed for another meeting (where one can make a pretty good guess as to what will happen then as well).  I suppose it’s not fair for one such as myself to expect responsibility from players to do what’s right when no one in the Leagues management structure can manage to do so either.

On October 28, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell appeared before Congress to answer questions regarding the correlation of football and sustaining concussions due to hits to the head.

On Friday, October 30^th, Allan Muir of SI.com broached the subject of head-hunting in the NHL.

On Monday, November 2^nd, Darren Eliot of SI.com wrote a column addressing concussions and other injuries in hockey resulting from hits to the head.

Yesterday, November 4^th, Ontario Hockey League Commissioner David Branch suspended Erie Otters forward Michael Liambas for the rest of the regular season for boarding Kitchener Rangers defenseman Ben Fanelii- breaking bones in his face and landing Fanelii in intensive care.  Branch broke new ground with the penalty and is having to defend his verdict.

Today, November 5^th, Jim Kelley of SI.com, a long time critic of the NHL and Colin Campbell’s brand of discipline, essentially applauded David Branch.

Also today, Al Cimaglia, a colleague of mine with HockeyIndependent, addressed the increased number of injuries in the NHL today with a very compelling article.  If you haven’t read Al’s column, please do so now.

Al asked the question “Do players really understand?”  Al, the answer is no.  That extends to former players at all levels that later in life become coaches, general managers and discipline czars.

As David Branch has learned, many “old-school” people brush off even the serious injuries saying they are a risk to playing the game.  They’re right in that injuries are a part of the game- but not these types of injuries.  People that brush-off the seriousness of head-related injuries either don’t realize the physical levels of today’s athletes, or they don’t care as long as they are entertained.  Some may fall in the worst possible group of people in that they don’t care as long as the money still rolls in.  They hide behind cliche’s like “keep your head on a swivel” or “finish your check”.  A defenseman that’s been beat and then throws himself in the players head (like Chicago’s Ladd) isn’t a lazy play anymore.  It’s just hockey.  Somewhere along the way, hockey decided to remove responsibility from its players.  They are no longer responsible or accountable for their actions.  Occasionally, a player mentions playing with respect, but respect isn’t the issue.  Players need to be responsible on the ice.  They should be accountable.

As Al does a great job of pointing out, the NHL (and other sports leagues as well), are typically reactive rather than proactive when it comes to safety (of the players or fans).  More than likely, it’s going to take someone’s tragic death to potentially cause change.  If that’s not bitter enough consider that reform will come not in an effort to prevent another death, but more to prevent future lawsuits.

For sports leagues to change, it will take a leader that can make a decision because it’s the morally right thing to do.  David Branch did just that.  I only hope that his actions start legitimate efforts to protect the players on the ice.  Hopefully, one of those leaders can find their way into the NHL management body as they certainly aren’t there today.  Maybe it will be David Branch.

Change will not be easy.  Branch and the OHL realized that players and coaches must be re-taught how to play the game of hockey respectfully.  His OHL has already banned hits to the head. Until the NHL and its players come to that realization, they must live with he consequences of their actions- both on and off the ice.  If there’s one thing I’d do in addition to the equipment changes and rule changes already implemented by the OHL, it would be to introduce an automatic 2 minute major penalty for any of the following infractions: elbowing, boarding, charging, high stick, and any hit to the head.  Those infractions all frequently result in head injuries.  Additionally, I’d publish a consistent standard regarding suspensions surrounding those infractions.  I’d start with an automatic 5 game suspension after earning any three infractions of that type.  I’d add an additional 5 games for every infraction of that type thereafter.  The suspension could not be revoked, but could be extended at the discretion of the commissioner.

Injuries to the head are serious.  Today’s athletes are bigger, stronger and faster than yesteryear’s athletes.  Now is the time to be proactive.  I hope someone in the NHL has the courage to do what David Branch has done and be proactive in stemming this tide.  Make no mistake, someone’s life depends on it.

In my role as a fan, a blogger, and one who would like to coach his 3 year old son in hockey one day, I occasionally think about what aspect of hockey I believe to be the toughest.  Seeing these injuries I think I have my answer.  For me, the hardest job would be visiting the various children’s hospitals and seeing the pain and suffering in those kids faces.  Al, I don’t think the players really do understand.  Would they understand, finally, if one of their children had to be hospitalized for a serious injury because a coach for the opposing team of 12-year-olds had a player charge or board their son?  Why should kids have more respect for their opponents than so-called adults?  I’m ashamed to say that it probably wouldn’t.

*UPDATE*

Another excellent article from a blogger associated with OHLProspects.com.  This article goes into the OHL hit and suspension with great detail.

*UPDATE #2*

Bob McKenzie checks in with a great article on the OHL’s reaction to the Liambas hit on Fanelii.

So it goes for the Nashville Predators.  The Predators enter tonight’s game with the Minnesota Wild in 14^th position of the Western Conference standings.  They have the worst power play success rate in the league.  They have one of the worst penalty kill units in the league.  They are averaging a paltry 1.8 goals per game, while allowing 3.3 goals per game.  Many of the veteran players that the coaching staff leans on are either injured or in a slump of epic proportions.  There are signs of desperation by the coaching staff in that they are attempting nearly every possible combination of players in an attempt to get something going offensively.

All of that has led to columnists and bloggers suggesting everything from firing Barry Trotz (Mike Barnes @ Section303.com), making wholesale line changes (myself), pointing out the problem areas (Mark Willoughby @ HockeyIndependent.com), and more.  Most of us have also made our own suggestions from the safety of our computer keyboards (not to disparage our efforts).  Is there hope?  I think so.

Firstly, Nashville can still be seen in the review mirror.  Within the Central division, Nashville is 2pts behind St. Louis, 3pts behind Detroit, and 5pts behind the 8^th seed in the Western Conference in Columbus.  That’s three or four games.  While that can still be said, they have time.  Of course, it’s imperative that they make a move quickly.  Now is the time to make that move.  November, with 8 home games, has the second most home games of any month (with March having the most at 10).

Quite frankly, the players that are slumping are the players that are just too talented to stay in their slumps forever.  Martin Erat has been the worst player on the ice most nights.  Steve Sullivan has been almost as bad.  Those two players typically have the primary responsibility to bring the puck into the offensive zone with speed.  Their problems have spread to their line mates.  Their inability to get the puck into the zone has affected the shot totals for others like David Legwand.  Defensively, Kevin Klein is regressed very badly from last season.  Dan Hamhuis has been in a slump as well, and their combined slump has really exacerbated things.  They can’t all continue in this fashion.  Fortunately, for those that do, it appears that the coaches are prepared to make some changes in keeping a full roster complete with seven defensemen.

There have been some bright spots for the Predators.  Shea Weber and Ryan Suter continue to be extremely solid for this team and also look to be just as offensively potent (although they need help to prevent teams from just locking in on them).  Colin Wilson and Patric Hornqvist have been the best forwards on the ice.  It appears from the practice report that the coaching staff are making extra efforts regarding the power play to induce movement and capitalize on those players that aren’t slumping.  The coaching staff has also rewarded Wilson and Hornqvist by moving them to the (perceived) top line for tonight’s game.

From the practice report, it appears that Nashville will ice the following lines tonight:

Sullivan-Wilson-Hornqvist

Dumont-Legwand-Scatchard

Erat-Santorelli-Ward

Smithson-Goc-Belak

Defensively, Dan Hamhuis returns from injury to make seven defensemen from which to choose.

I like a lot of what I see there.  The top line could allow Sullivan to focus on shooting by pairing him with the two best forwards at this time in Wilson and Hornqvist.  Both can be given the primary responsibility to bring the puck up the ice thereby freeing Sullivan from that responsibility as well.  Both can win the battles in the corner and can find Sullivan for his shot.  This line should be an effective forechecking line as well.  For similar reasons, I like the Erat-Santorelli and Ward line if the primary duties for bringing the puck into the zone and running the offense are given to Santorelli (or Suter) instead of Erat.  Running the offense through Dumont with Legwand as the shooter on that line could have similar results.  I have some concerns with the Dumont line being kept in the defensive zone, but this line has possibilities as well.  This is the line that I would ensure Weber is on the ice for both defensive and offensive reasons.  On paper, these are the best combinations of speed, grit and skill (top to bottom) that I’ve seen us ice this season.  Something about this lineup just feels right.

One final thought regarding Barry Trotz.  How seriously hot is his seat?  My personal opinion, with no support other than the overall feeling I have from reading my fellow bloggers and columnists, is that the seat is more than warm.  If David Poile believes in the players that he has assembled (and I believe he does) and the veterans continue to struggle, I think he makes a change if they fall roughly 10 – 12 pts behind the 8^th seed.  Will it happen?  I don’t think so.  I think that some of the changes that Trotz and his staff are implementing will pay dividends- starting with tonight.

We’ll see soon enough.

NASHVILLE DEFEATS OTTAWA

This time, the headline is accurate.  No really.  The six game losing streak is really over.

What a Jekyll and Hyde game tonight- especially so for Shea Weber and Ryan Suter.

First two periods, Nashville plays aggressive forechecking, forcing turnovers and putting pucks on net.  Tonight they made their own luck early on.

Then there was this thing called the third period.  They fell back into a trapping system and Ottawa capitalized by entering the zone with speed and capitalizing on defensive miscues.

The young’uns played a good game tonight.  Cody Franson had one miscue that Rinne stopped, but otherwise, they had a good game.  Franson with 1G and was +2 on the night.  Colin Wilson had 1A and was E.  Patric Hornqvist was +1 on the night.  O’Reilly was +3, Sulzer had 1A and was +2.

J.P. Dumont had a goal and four assists (+3).  In general, he played a controlled game and found the open players all night.

Shea Weber and Ryan Suter found the offense in a big way tonight.

Special mention must be made to Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist and Dave Scatchard.  They were a terror every time they hit the ice.  They had 7 shots on goal and 2A among them.

Nice to see the power play show some signs of life.  Erat needs to be taken off that power play unit for a time.

Resiliency.  That used to be a common trait for this team.  Hopefully that’s a good sign.  The scheme change allowed Ottawa to get back into the game, but the rebounded by continuing their offensive efforts by putting the puck on net.

What I Didn’t Like

Martin Erat somehow was second on the team in ice time.  He was constantly turning the puck over.  He was -3 on the night.  Erat had one of the worst games I’ve ever seen him play.

Steve Sullivan and J.P. Dumont both passed up multiple clear shots to the net only to turn the puck over making the extra pass.

Rare night where Suter and Weber might have been the worst defensemen at times in their own zone.

I detested Nashville changing their defensive system for the third period.  By dropping back into their trap (effectively a “prevent” defense), they essentially allowed Ottawa to gain momentum and force our defensive errors.  The coaches may say that they just didn’t execute the trap well in the third- and they would be correct.  However, I believe it was a much more grievous error to change how they had been playing.

Pekka Rinne’s third period left something to be desired.  He had an excellent first two periods.  While he didn’t get a lot of help in the third, he needed to step up and make one or two stops.

I didn’t like the lack of discipline in the third period.  Fortunately, Ottawa was even worse.

As I look ahead to the Ottawa game tonight, I’m going to rearrange the lines.  I’m throwing seniority out of the window.  My goal is to produce three lines that can consistently provide aggressive forechecking and win battles in the corners.  Any time five guys are on the ice, at least two of those five have to be able to play with grit and toughness.  Secondarily, I want to limit the number of people currently in slumps being on the ice at the same time.  Finally, I want three lines that play the same defensive system: a 2-1-2 with aggressive forechecking to force turnovers and more offensive zone time.  This teams needs to run a consistent defensive system reduce confusion and ease communication on the ice. 

I’m focusing on the top nine and the power play units as our fourth line role players are pretty well defined.  Let’s start with the top line (including defensemen).

Wilson, Suter and Franson are playing good hockey at the moment.  Steve Sullivan and Martin Erat are both in horrible slumps, but both have very good skills and just need that jumpstart to get them started.  This line is designed to do just that.  Firstly, this line is designed to take the puck out of Sullivan’s hands coming up the ice given his difficulties right now.  Suter, Wilson and Erat are all doing a good job bringing the puck up the ice.  This line is designed first and foremost as a counterattack line.  Suter and Franson are both strong on the first pass.  Sullivan and Erat should be able to spring loose for a lot of rushes.  Wilson is there to bring playmaking, net presence, and physicality so that Sullivan and Erat can concentrate on shooting.  Suter can run the set offense from the point and has another good shooting option in Franson.  Sullivan and Erat should be under a mandate to put at least three pucks on net for each game.  Dumping the puck in deep will not be the strong suit of this line and that philosophy should be a last resort.  Defensively, Sullivan and Erat provide the aggressive forecheck in the 2-1-2 system.  Wilson playing the middle would have the capability to break in to capitalize on turnovers in addition to Sullivan and Erat’s own abilities in that regard.

This line turns down the speed to a degree, but works a little better playing the dump and chase game.  This line is designed to work as a puck possession line that uses movement to create scoring chances.  Hornqvist and O’Reilly have shown both desire and effectiveness in driving the net.  Their continual movement towards the net should allow Dumont to run the offense looking to either put a shot on net or pass it out to Weber or Sulzer for a shot on net.  Weber does need to take advantage of the additional traffic in front of the goalie by actually getting the puck on net.  That’s extremely important.  Defensively, Hornqvist and O’Reilly should excel at aggressively forechecking the opposing defensemen and Dumont should be adequately effective at clogging the passing lanes.

Let’s talk about this line when fully healthy first.  This line is designed to allow Legwand to run the set offense and feed the puck to Jason Arnott.  Ward’s role will be to provide the net presence and movement to allow Legwand to shoot or feed Arnott for his shot.  It’s also designed to take the best advantage of Klein’s skill set by giving him more freedom to pinch down low (in which Legwand provides coverage) and generate offense.  He also has a good first pass and could start or participate in rushes.  Legwand and Ward should provide a very good forecheck as well.  Now, with Arnott’s injury, Legwand moves back to Center and this line plays more like the second line with a Ryan Jones-type and Joel Ward driving continually driving to the net.  Essentially it adds a little more movement as Arnott does not drive the net as often.  Bouillon’s veteran presence allows Klein to commit more to the offensive side- which is more befitting his skill set.

My goals for the power play units were to ensure movement, reward those playing well and to limit Sullivan bringing the puck up the ice.

Ryan Suter runs the first unit from the point.  He has a great shot in Weber.  He also has two players that should constantly be rotating to the net in O’Reilly and Hornqvist.  Sullivan is always an outlet for a quick shot as well as to make the extra pass to a cutting O’Reilly or Hornqvist.  Suter, O’Reilly and Hornqvist have the primary responsibility to bring the puck up the ice.

The second unit operates in a similar fashion.  Wilson and Ward should consistently maintain a fresh body at the goalie’s feet while J.P. Dumont can run the power play from the half boards.  Wilson, Klein and Dumont would be responsible for bringing the puck up the ice.  Franson provides another great shot from the point.  When Jason Arnott is healthy, he would also provide a great shot from the point and could rotate down to the slot to make himself available to Dumont.

Both of these power play units should be based upon movement, specifically rotating players from the slot to right in front of the net to provide confusion and screen shots.

Thoughts?

A successful team makes their own luck.  Tonight in Boston, the Bruins forced the puck to bounce their way.  An aggressive forecheck in the third period forced Nashville to play on their heels and turn the puck over and, with the assistance of the referee being in Shea Weber’s path to the puck, Boston capitalized on the turnover to score the game winning goal.

It was that kind of night for Nashville.

Nashville got off to a strong start in the first period with aggressive play from David Legwand as he drove the net 1 on 4.  Jared Smithson capitalized by following Legwand to the net and knocking the loose puck past Tim Thomas for the 1-0 lead.  Nashville received noticeably strong play from the top line of Steve Sullivan, Cal O’Reilly and J.P. Dumont as well as the entire blueline.

Nashville’s tendency to lose their edge in the second period reared its head again.  It all began 26 seconds into the period when Michael Ryder of the Bruins capitalized on the puck getting tied up in the linesman’s skates allowing him to grab the puck and race past Ryan Suter to tie the game at 1.  Nashville temporarily pulled back ahead 2-1 when Patric Hornqvist continued his strong play by driving hard to the net pulling Thomas to the edge of the crease.  Colin Wilson trailed on the play and smartly stopped right in front of the net allowing him to tap home the rebound into an empty net.  Then, at 12:38 into the period, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron scored from the side of the net when Chara’s shot wasn’t cleared tying the game again at 2 all.  That score remained knotted at 2 after the second period.

The third period saw Boston assert itself on the forecheck and do a great job at keeping the puck in the Nashville end.  At 8:33 into the third Boston’s hard forechecking harassed Weber and Francis Bouillon into a turnover that Steve Begin converted into a 3-2 lead.  That lead would hold up for the win.

What I Liked

Patric Hornqvist continued to show why he’s one of Nashville’s top forwards to this point.  He was all over the ice, battled hard in the corners and consistently put pressure on Tim Thomas by driving to the net.

I liked seeing both David Legwand and Colin Wilson contributing on the score sheet tonight.  Both points were created by their driving the net.  Wilson plays well with Patric Hornqvist.  Legwand had a really good game with the exception of the face offs.

I thought that Alexander Sulzer played a solid game, veteran-like game for his first game this season at the NHL level.

I liked seeing Ryan Suter with the third “A” tonight.

The effort and chances generated on the first two power play opportunities are what this team needs.  If they can consistently do that along with continually putting shots actually on net, they’ll begin to show some effectiveness on the power play.

Legwand is this teams best penalty killer- by far.

Great job by Jared Smithson following Legwand to the net and making all their hard work pay off.  Great to see him score one with his stick instead of his backside.

I liked Crispy’s breakdown showing Suter communicating with the forwards on the ice.  In truth, I wish they would do a little bit more of that kind of analysis.

What I Didn’t Like

I didn’t like the Sullivan, O’Reilly, and Dumont line at even strength.  They started really strong and had a great first period.  As the game wore on, however, they began to be hemmed in to the Nashville end and were on the ice for two of the goals that Boston scored.  They are too small to consistently be effective.

Cody Franson had a decent game, but he did take a step back tonight from the last game.  His skating difficulties were on display several times.  He even had a small stretch where he was having difficulty staying on his skates with little contact.

Martin Erat continues to play poor hockey.  I don’t think I can be more candid.  Right now, he’s a detriment on the ice.  He has the talent to turn it around, has had some success with Wilson and Ward.

Marcel Goc was just invisible tonight.  However, I think a fourth line of Scatchard, Goc, and Tootoo would be really interesting to watch.

That third power play opportunity was beyond bad.

Steve Sullivan needs to have someone else bring the puck up the ice.  Too many times, he’ll enter the zone with speed and get caught at the point only to turn the puck over.

Nashville continues their road trip tomorrow night in Ottawa.

Thursday night saw a few changes for the struggling Predators in an effort to right the ship.  Mike Santorelli was sent to Milwaukee and was replaced by Cal O’Reilly.  J.P. Dumont returned to the lineup.  The top power play unit was modified by dropping Ryan Suter, adding Patric Hornqvist down low, and moving Steve Sullivan out to Suter’s point spot.  Erat and Legwand were split up with Erat moving to the Colin Wilson and Joel Ward line.  Legwand shifted to the wing and played with Cal O’Reilly and Patric Hornqvist.

Nashville lost 3-1, but what could Nashville take away from their changes and efforts?

Firstly, they did start to play a more aggressive forecheck.  It was pretty effective as well, causing turnovers that just could not be converted.  David Legwand and Martin Erat played a very strong forecheck and caused a lot of problems for Chicago.

The line of Erat, Colin Wilson, and Joel Ward consistently applied very good pressure in the offensive zone and scored the team’s only goal.  Ward and Wilson are also very good at winning the battles in the corners.  This leads to short amounts of time in their own zone, and better puck possession in the offensive zone.

Ryan Suter and Shea Weber continue to be extremely solid for Nashville.

I didn’t like to see Dan Hamhuis and especially Kevin Klein continue the errors in their own end.  I also didn’t like seeing Steve Sullivan at the point on the power play.  Sullivan is too loose with the puck right now to be out at the point.  He’s also more deadly down low.  I’d much rather see more wholesale changes on that first unit.

Quick Preview for Tonight Against Washington

Dan Hamhuis is out with an upper body injury.  Cody Franson has been called up to replace him in the lineup.  John Glennon has reported that Barry Trotz has a plan to break up the Sullivan-Arnott-Dumont line (finally!).

Since the Predators were unable to have a morning skate today, the lines and defensive pairings are completely unknown.  Glennon has confirmed that Weber and Suter will have to be split up to account for the Hamhuis injury and the overall inexperience of the unit.  Trotz also finally appears ready to make large-scale changes to the power play.

This is what I’d like to see:

Legwand-Arnott-Dumont

Erat-Wilson-Sullivan

Hornqvist-O’Reilly-Ward

Jones-Goc-Belak

I’d like to see this tried for the power play units:

Sullivan-Wilson-Hornqvist-Weber-Suter

Dumont-Arnott-Legwand-Weber-Franson

I’m out of town tonight, so I will not be able to watch the game live (nor be active online during the game).  I am recording the Washington feed on the DVR, so I will watch it tomorrow night.

Edited the lines due to forgetting Patric Hornqvist.

Yesterday was a new day. Last night, via Dish Network, I was able to watch most of… that. Well, that was fun.

I’m waiting from someone to grab these guys and assert some leadership and discipline. I’m waiting for someone to be mad and do something about it. There’s so much wrong with this team it’s hard to find enough fingers to plug into the holes- and that’s with three coaches.

At this point, I’m still not worried about goaltending. For the most part both goaltenders are being no support by their teammates. Until proper support is given, and soft/weak goals begin to mount, goaltending drops in priority.

So where do we start?  I would start with more aggressive play.

Play Aggressively with Discipline

This team can’t seem to play aggressively.  There’s no aggression defensively, there’s no aggressive offensive play.  Defensively there are two areas where this team would greatly benefit from playing more aggressively.  Firstly, there must be better at forechecking.  At this point, there’s no real pressure on the opposing defensemen to force those critical turnovers.  It is also allowing those defensemen to see the ice and make breakout passes to forwards moving through the neutral zone with speed.  That leads me directly to the second area needing more aggressive play: defending our blueline.  Right now, opposing forwards are moving through the neutral zone and entering the offensive zone full speed.  Our defensemen are not making any attempt to stand the opposition up at the blueline.  If the opposing offensive moves up the ice essentially full speed, there’s no good way to stop them from executing essentially whatever they want and it also increases the likelihood that our defense will be in disarray.

Slowing down the opposition increases the chances for turnovers and allows our defense to establish itself in the zone.  Once there, man or zone discipline must take hold.

Right now, this team plays even more passively offensively.  They can barely enter the zone with possession, and when they do, they tend to turn the puck over.  When the stars do align and the team establishes itself in the zone, everyone tends to stand in one location and pass the puck around until the puck is turned over.  The Predators make it extremely easy to defend them.

It would be nice to watch a game in which Sullivan, Arnott and Hornqvist attempt to cycle the puck without ever attempting or looking for a shot.  It would also be nice if someone would drive the slot to provide an additional outlet.  It would be nice if the only movement wasn’t Weber roaming from one side to another trying to force a shot through a forest of traffic.  Of course, it would also be nice if someone gave Weber another option by making themselves available for another shot.

This non-aggression on offense has two other (related) problems: the inability to draw penalties (Nashville is 24^th in the league at drawing penalties) and the propensity to commit lazy penalties in the offensive zone because of not moving your feet.  That is huge and cannot be stated enough.

Power Play

During the offseason, Barry Trotz addressed the power play issues by stating (and I’m paraphrasing since I can’t find the link) that “the power play unit tends to grow roots on the ice and doesn’t move”.  That sounds familiar.  If it’s good enough for even strength play, then it’s apparently good enough for power play time.

That said, that statement says to me that either there will be more movement on the Predators’ power play units or the units will change.  To this point, the power play continues to play the same style as last season with even worse results: 30^th in the league at 5.9%.  At home they are 0 for 9.

When I look at the players receiving ice time, I’m not seeing any changes.  Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan, JP Dumont, and Martin Erat.  I’ve omitted Hornqvist and Wilson given their circumstances.  Martin Erat needs a night off for many reasons.  Beyond that, I think it’s at least worth it to try giving more time to Wilson, Santorelli, Hornqvist, or Legwand.  I’d probably keep Weber and Suter on the first unit, but the forwards would come from those four and potentially Jones and Ward.  Wilson, Horqvist, Jones and Ward are all willing to either camp in the slot or drive to the slot.  Legwand, Suter, and Wilson can all get the puck to those players driving the slot.

Now is the time to grow up, accept responsibility and take hold of this team and season.  That goes for David Poile, Barry Trotz, and the leadership group on the team.

With all due respect to John Saqell and the many passionate fans that agree with that misguided notion, it’s not that simple.

Jim Balsillie purposely used the internet and the media to incite these feelings once again among all hockey fans and, in doing so, shifted the focus of the fans of all teams away from the game of hockey. It was a poor service to a game he claims to love as it was a strategy useless to his legal war with the NHL.

There are so many reasons that a team could experience attendance issues and no market is really immune with the possible exception of the Toronto Maple Leafs (to this point). The Vancouver Canucks had issues in the mid-80’s. The Red Wings had issues for a couple of decades. The New York Islanders, Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, New Jersey Devils, Minnesota North Stars, Chicago Blackhawks, Hartford Whalers, Winnipeg Jets, and more have all gone through major attendance issues.

That said, let’s examine John’s quote above. I actually have several issues with that statement. First of all, it’s the height of hubris to judge whether one set of fans deserves a team more than another set of fans. It also seems to suggest that no matter how the fan or community is treated, they should support the franchise and owner. Quite frankly, each and every instance of a market experiencing an issue with attendance should be examined on its own merits and facts. Unfortunately, mob mentality doesn’t typically allow that to occur- and while I obviously love the internet as it provides me a voice in the hockey blogosphere, there’s no doubting that the internet and its “forums” and “blogs” incite that mentality. That’s both a good thing and a bad thing at times.

History is supportive of the theory that all teams (both those in the present and any future teams) will have problems with their attendance at least once during their existence. History is not supportive of the notion that “teams in cities where fans will embrace the teams and love them like they deserve to be loved” will not experience attendance issues at some point in their existence.

The typical response to that line of thought from those passionate about moving teams to “desired” locations is that issues with those teams in “desired” locations were not the fault of the fans- it was the local politicians, or the arena, or the owner, or the… you get the point. I’ll firstly point out that line of thought is in disagreement with John’s quote. Of course, it’s also often the correct response. But that thinking isn’t afforded to all situations, only to those teams and situations that “deserve it”.

There are many facts and truisms about sports leagues in general, and the NHL specifically, that fans sometime overlook, understandably, in their passion.

• Leagues strive to attain their own goals. While thought will be given to the reaction of the league’s fans it will more than likely be considered as a risk that can be mitigated in many cases.
• The vast majority of the league’s goals are for the betterment of the owners of the individual member clubs.
• Second in line will be to the league’s business partners.
• No better than third in line will be the players.
• No better than fourth in line will be the fans (and this is probably extremely optimistic).
• Markets are all different and a successful league needs more than just the “huge” markets to be truly successful.
• Larger markets must support smaller markets to some degree for stability.
• Market stability is a tremendous asset. It’s not 100% necessary, but the more stability the better.
• The NHL has to work within the world of law. If that means they must do everything they can to stay in a market until there is a legal option to leave a market they will.
• The NHL has also realized, over time, that they can’t just abandon markets when they depend upon those markets to provide arenas in which to play. If they choose to do so anyway, there is a cost associated (not just in penalties, etc.) that will affect the next negotiations with a market.
• The NHL can learn from their mistakes, but they will also feel they need to move a franchise on occasion.
• Expansion into new, non-traditional markets can be a very good thing. It’s also a necessary thing to grow one’s boundaries.
• Doing so, however, should be well conceived and with the knowledge that each time will be a long term investment of at least 15 years.
• The NHL was not prepared to do the latter. It’s also not all Bettman’s fault.
• It’s too late to undo what’s been done. Now is time to make the best of what’s there.

For the record, I don’t like to see any fans hurt by the loss of their team. I’d also like to see more Canadian teams, but realize and understand that might not promote League goals. Also, for the record, I also supported the NHL’s position regarding the Coyotes against Jim Balsillie given the legal precedents a decision in Balsillie’s favor would attempt to set.

This is admittedly a touchy subject. Unfortunately it results in fans judging each other on their “worthiness” to have a team. That does nothing to promote the sport of hockey (as a matter of fact, it can do a lot of harm). Those “fan discussions” typically have no relevance to or knowledge of the situation at hand either. I suspect that we will forever have fans tearing each other apart their perceived worthiness to be a fan. Seems a little silly to me. I’d much rather see that passion turned toward discussion of the game.

Full disclosure: I missed almost all of the first period, and all comments reflect what I actually viewed.

The Good

• Jason Arnott – Arnott picked up where he left off by scoring a goal and adding an assist.  Nice physical game played by the captain.
• Steve Sullivan - Gets off to a good start by scoring a goal off of a rebound from a Jason Arnott shot.
• David Legwand/Martin Erat/Mike Santorelli - Generally an active game by the new second line with some opportunities.  This looks like a line that’s going to succeed.  Legwand with a great shot in the SO and Santorelli making it look very easy by netting the SO winner.
• Shea Weber/Ryan Suter/Dan Hamhuis - Carried the load by logging 28:06, 27:44, and 27:30 respectively.  The next defenseman was Bouillon with 21:15 of ice time.
• Dan Ellis in SO- Not typically a great goaltender in the SO, Ellis really rose to the occasion.  Good thing too considering his early, uh, issue.

The Bad

• Power Play in OT – 4-on-3 power play saw Weber, Arnott, Sullivan and Erat with almost no movement whatsoever.  After Trotz talking about changing things up due to players growing roots out there, I expected more- especially when the situation (4-on-3) lends itself so well to movement.
• No Mike Santorelli PP Time- Given the offensive skill Santorelli has, I expected some time given to him.  Surprised at this.
• Teemu Laakso- 6:20 in total ice time.  The Predators almost used five defensemen exclusively.
• Lack of Physical Play- The Predators were really unable to respond when Dallas turned up the physical play.

The Ugly

• Dan Ellis Clear Attempt- Ellis will be first to tell you that he messed up- bad.  Early in the third period, with the Predators up 2-1, Ellis gloved the puck and attempted to clear straight up the slot with Dallas rushing in- passed right to James Neal who buried the easy shot for his second goal of the night.
• Robidas Hit on Dumont- Personal opinion here- Robidas saw Dumont leaning deeply over and knew that even a “clean” check would catch Dumont in the head.  Again, my personal opinion is that you respect your fellow players and you do not knowingly make a hit that will certainly be a head shot.
• No Reaction to the Robidas Hit- Disappointed that there was no reaction from anyone on the Predators on the head shot.  “Clean” or not, my opinion is that a head shot should not be tolerated.

Final Thoughts

Firstly, I hope that both JP Dumont and Mike Modano suffer no long terms effects from their injuries (and Modano did participate in the SO, but I thought he appeared to be in pain).  Nashville’s next game is Thursday in Nashville and hopefully Dumont will be back in the lineup.

The top two lines looked really good tonight.  The top three defensemen also looked really good.

I did think that the Predators were essentially on their heels from the time that Dumont went out to the end of the game.  I like what I saw from Patric Hornqvist in relief of Dumont.  I think it will allow the Predators to weather the loss of Dumont for a short period of time if necessary.

Ellis played a decent game, but still gives up way too many rebounds.  That said, the first goal was a great shot by James Neal from on of those rebounds and the second was directly caused by Ellis’s giveaway.  Excellent job in the shootout by Ellis.

Can’t say enough about how at ease Santorelli appeared to be in the shootout.

Last thought- when it came to crunch time, Trotz shortened the blueline even further at times by playing Bouillon with Hamhuis.

Next game in Nashville on 10/8 against Colorado.

While my wife might disagree, I don’t think so.  Of course, I certainly have them higher than most.

Last season, they finished with 88pts- three points from the eighth seed.  Most think they will not be better this year, but I disagree.

Before delving too much into this blog, I’ve already detailed much of the statistical information I’m using in my projection in my prior post examining the impact of Steve Sullivan.  While a full season of Steve Sullivan (say 70 games-ish) is certainly a leading point of optimism, it’s not the only point.

Consider that last season, Nashville played 41 games with only 4 legitimate top six players in Arnott, Dumont, Erat and Legwand- and each of them either missed time or had nagging injuries.  The other two positions were filled with role players like Vernon Fiddler, a great third line player in Joel Ward, or rookies like Ryan Jones and Patric Hornqvist.  Each of those players committed much effort to the position, but none were suited for a top six position in terms of skill or experience.

This season, Nashville gets a full season of Steve Sullivan.  A player who, even after two years away from the game, produced 0.78 Pts/G and whose presence saw Jason Arnott go from 0.68 Pts/G to 1.14 Pts/G.  The team went from scoring 0.95 standing points per game to 1.20 standing points per game.  The power play jumped to almost 19% (from a paltry 13%).   If there were no other changes at all, that would suggest the ability for Nashville to reach 98 points.

But I see more to this team.

This season, David Legwand and Martin Erat will be counted on to score more points- in the range of 60 – 70 points.  For the first time since Paul Kariya was in Nashville, they finally have a player in Mike Santorelli that actually has the skills to play in the top six.  Can he produce?  I don’t know.  Preseason is preseason, but all three were roughly PPG players in that time.  They don’t have to produce at that level (not that I would mine), but the second line has more skill than it’s had in a long time.

A great surprise player last season, Joel Ward moves back to a more natural role on a third line that can provide the scoring depth so sorely missing last season.  On this other side will be Ryan Jones with a year more experience and also in a better role on the third line.  Centering those two will eventually be Colin Wilson.  Wilson dominated training camp and the first preseason game until his groin injury.  The fact that he has been kept with the team to rehab instead of being sent to Milwaukee makes me believe that the Predators intend to get him in the lineup as soon as possible.  Waiting in the wings is Patric Hornqvist, the leading scorer during preseason.

The Predators are not going to score 300 goals, but they have improved the top nine forwards significantly.  With an improved Hornqvist and potentially Cal O’Reilly, they also have more depth to weather short term injuries better than last season.

Last season saw Shea Weber and Ryan Suter paired together for the first time consistently.  The results were pretty amazing.  This season, they will be the anchors on the blueline.  They will play more minutes and are comfortable with each other.  Dan Hamhuis will be the steadying presence on the second pairing, probably with speedy Kevin Klein.  The speedy Francis Bouillon will provide experience on a third pairing that includes rookie Teemu Laakso.  Given the speed and talent on this blueline, and the additional experience for Weber, Suter, and Klein, I believe this year’s blueline will achieve more than last season.

Finally, last season saw the Predators start Dan Ellis in goal with rookie Pekka Rinne as the backup.  They really could not be too sure what they had in Rinne at the NHL level, and they probably rode Dan too much early on (and didn’t provide enough help either).  This season has seen Dan Ellis have an extremely impressive preseason.  Rinne didn’t have a good preseason, but the team should be comfortable with both.  Unless both really fall apart, it shouldn’t be too hard to cobble together good to very good goaltending.

Several things around the league make me believe that some teams will have tougher seasons this year as well:  Detroit losing Hossa, Hudler and Samuelsson; drama and goaltending questions in Chicago; Dallas’ total shakeup at the top, and Phoenix’s less than optimal situation.  I also wonder how well Columbus will do with a target on them now.

My shot in the dark seedings in the Western Conference:

1. San Jose

2. Calgary

3. Detroit

4. Vancouver

5. Chicago

6. Nashville

7. St. Louis

8. Anaheim

9. Columbus

10. Minnesota

11. Dallas

12. Los Angeles

13. Edmonton

14. Colorado

15. Phoenix

Enough of this.  Let’s drop the puck already.

 There are several area’s I wanted to look at specifically to see the potential impact of Sullivan’s return: the statistics of line mates Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont; the overall effectiveness of the power play; the statistics of power play mates Shea Weber and Ryan Suter; and statistics for the David Legwand and Martin Erat.  What I found was pretty enlightening.  His impact to the Predators was more than his 0.78 Pts/G after roughly two years away from the game.

Jason Arnott played 37 games (mostly) prior to Steve Sullivan’s return and played 28 games with Sullivan.  Without Sullivan, Arnott had 15G and 10A for a 0.68 Pts/G average.  With Sullivan, those numbers jumped to 18G and 14A for a whopping 1.14 Pts/G average (remember 9 less games).

Dumont’s statistics remained relatively flat as he average 0.61 Pts/G pre-Sullivan and 0.59 Pts/G after.  This actually makes sense.  Adding another playmaker to the lineup had a huge positive impact to the sniper (Arnott) and a slightly negative impact to the other playmaker on the line (Dumont).  Overall, Dumont had a down year last year anyway.

Did Sullivan have any impact on the power play?  In the 41 games without Steve Sullivan, the Predators converted on 22 of 169 for a rate of 13.0%.  With Sullivan the conversion rate jumped to 28 goals in 149 attempts, for a rate of 18.8%.  Sizable jump in the success rate, although I’m concerned about the drop in attempts.

Shea Weber actually saw his Pts/G average drop from 0.71 to 0.60 after Sullivan’s arrival, while Ryan Suter saw his Pts/G average rise slightly from 0.51 to 0.59.  Given the torrid start Shea Weber had, it’s actually not surprising to me that he dropped slightly after defenses adjusted to him.  The increased production from Suter, Sullivan, and Arnott is also partially a result of defenses trying to stop Shea’s booming shot first.

Maybe the most shocking statistic I saw was the production from David Legwand.  Pre-Sullivan, Legwand had 7G and 13A for a 0.49 Pts/G in 41GP.  After Sullivan, Legwand’s production increased to 13G and 9A for a 0.69 Pts/G in 32GP.  Erat essentially stayed flat at roughly 0.70 Pts/G.  The Legwand statistic is fascinating in that his line always had a player that was really not best-suited to be in a top six role.  My best guess is that some defensive coverage rotated more to the Sullivan line as Legwand’s PP TOI average actually dropped by just a few seconds.  With the addition of Mike Santorelli as a line mate, the best-suited player since Paul Kariya in terms of offensive skills, could Legwand and Erat’s production be vastly improved?  If preseason is to be believed, always a dubious thing, then yes.

UPDATE:  It was pointed out by 101st_fan that I had left one telling stat off when it came to Sullivan and his impact, and he’s quite right- standing points.  Without Sullivan, the Predators averaged 0.95 standing points per game, with him they jumped to 1.20 standing points per game.  The goals per game went from 2.39 to 2.66 as well.

With apologies to Pierre McGuire, Steve Sullivan is the best pure offensive talent that the Nashville Predators have ever iced.  If he can stay healthy, his impact is measurable- as the Predators’ record last season with him can attest.

That said, there’s still some work to do in order to finalize the roster that will be making the trip.  Unfortunately for the coaching staff, some nagging injuries are probably making this more difficult in many respects.

Defensemen

If one looks at one-way contracts alone, courtesy of CapGeek.com, these players will definitely be suiting up for the Nashville Predators on 10/3: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Dan Hamhuis, Kevin Klein, Francis Bouillon, and Alexander Sulzer.  That’s six defensemen.  Will they carry seven?  In my opinion the Predators will not open the season with seven defensemen.  I believe that the Predators were willing to go into the season with two inexperienced defensemen in their top six.  My opinion is that Kevin Klein hasn’t shown as much progress this year, up until that last preseason game, that they would have liked and that necessitated bringing another experienced defensemen.  Sulzer and Klein are all but guaranteed roster spots given their contract status, so Bouillon’s status means that Laakso, Blum and Franson will all have to start in Milwaukee.  I don’t think the Predators are prepared to play with three inexperienced defensemen and I also don’t think that want any of those three to play seventh defensemen minutes- at least at this time.  It doesn’t help that the injury situation at forward might necessitate an extra forward on the roster.

Goalies

This is somewhat easy as the goalies will obviously be Dan Ellis and Pekka Rinne.  The question is who gets the first shot to start.  This coaching staff has always attempted to reward goalie play as evidenced by rewarding a shutout with another start.  Do they reward Pekka for his play last season, or do they reward Dan for his exceptional preseason play (while penalizing Pekka for his lackluster play)?

I believe that they’ll give Pekka the first start against Dallas.  However, I think if he continues his struggles, Dan Ellis will play at least two of the next three games in Nashville.

Forwards

Steve Sullivan, Jason Arnott, and JP Dumont will be the first line.  Mike Santorelli has done nothing to play himself out of an opportunity to play wing alongside David Legwand and Martin Erat.  He’s has a very good preseason.

The third line presents more difficult decisions, particularly due to injury.  I believe that Ryan Jones and Joel Ward will be 2/3 of that line.  Colin Wilson looked like the frontrunner for the pivot in camp and the first preseason game, but I believe that his groin injury puts him in Milwaukee to start the season.  If he picks up where he left off, it won’t be for long.  It remains to be seen whether the Predators will turn back to Cal O’Reilly to fill that third line pivot.  O’Reilly was the odds-on-favorite for the position coming into training camp, but an almost invisible camp combined with Wilson’s impressive start pushed him down the depth chart.  Unfortunately, he really hasn’t raised his game in Wilson’s absence.  O’Reilly’s loss is Marcel Goc’s gain.  In my opinion Goc has played his way to the third line pivot until Wilson proves he’s ready.  Joel Ward’s injury has opened another spot, at least temporarily.  I feel that Patric Hornqvist has played his way onto the third line as Ward’s replacement until Joel can go full strength.

Jordin Tootoo, Jared Smithson, and Ben Guite are locks on the fourth line with Wade Belak as the reserve forward. 

The lines look something like this: Sullivan-Arnott-Dumont, Santorelli-Legwand-Erat, Jones-Goc-Ward/Hornqvist, and Guite-Smithson-Tootoo with Belak in reserve.  Defensive pairings would be Weber/Suter, Hamhuis/Klein, and Bouillon/Sulzer. Finally, Pekka gets the first start over Ellis.  

That’s a total of 14 forwards, 6 defensemen and 2 goalies for a roster of 22 players.  I would be shocked if Colin Wilson is not called up within the first month if he shows the same dominance in the AHL.

After the final cuts, I’ll project the Predators season.  Looking forward to Saturday, October 3rd.

Let’s dip our toe back into the blogosphere by taking a quick glance at the Predators after their 5-4 road loss to the Atlanta Thrashers tonight.

Coming into training camp, Nashville had two really pressing issues: increasing scoring and bettering their well-below-average powerplay.   A third issue presented itself with the decision to not re-sign Greg de Vries and Greg Zanon resulting in only three defensemen having played meaningful minutes at the NHL level in Weber, Suter and Hamhuis.

Let’s examine management’s attempts at addressing those issues and try to gauge their success to this point.

Goal 1: Increase Scoring

Given the financial situation both now and for the upcoming offseason (Hamhuis, Rinne, potentially falling cap), this is a pretty tough task.  That said, we’ve seen several plans put in motion by Barry Trotz and David Poile.

• Re-signing Steve Sullivan was the first step.  Sullivan appeared to successfully return from his back injuries last season to provide a direct offensive boost and helping Dumont and Arnott to rebound from a slow start.  Given Sully’s age and injury history, the signing certainly has a fair amount of risk.  That said, I believe this to be one of the best moves made given that, if healthy, Sullivan appears to have essentially returned to form and he has an excellent chemistry with Arnott and Dumont.
• Another apparent course of action was to increase depth scoring from the third line.  Joel Ward was a pleasant suprise last season and was re-signed.  Last season, however, he spent a lot of time on the top two lines due to our depth issues.  This season the goal is to play Ward on the third line with some combination of Ryan Jones, Patric Hornqvist, Colin Wilson and Cal O’Reilly.  All of those players represent a fairly significant increase in offensive skill level to those players iced on the third line last season.  All but rookie Colin Wilson saw some time on the top two lines last season with at least some degree of success.  All of them should be better this season and the preseason certainly seems to bear that out with the exception of O’Reilly and a just returning from injury Ward.  Ryan Jones (+3) has 1G and 1A in 3GP.  Patric Hornqvist (+4) has 4A in 3GP.  Colin Wilson (+3) has looked good as well.  He has 1G and 2A in 1GP, and has been really good in camp until his current groin injury sidelined him.
• Another goal was to get more from the second line.  Last season saw a significant decline in production from both David Legwand and Martin Erat.  In fairness, production from all forwards was down.  Sullivan’s return helped boost Dumont and Arnott’s statistics, but there no boost came from Legwand and Erat.  Both have shown that they can produce when they have another skilled player on their wing.  Both have also shown tremendous chemistry together.  This season has seen management focus on pairing Legwand and Erat with a player that displayed good goal scoring skills.  Plan A has been to play Mike Santorelli on their wing.  Santorelli led the Milwaukee Admirals last season in goals (27) and points (70).  Plan B was to bring in a free agent to fill that role.  Plan B almost came to fruition in the form of Phil Kessel (an attempt in which I applaud Poile’s efforts).  That said, Santorelli has really shown some good chemistry with Legwand and Erat in both training camp and preseason games.  All three have really produced.  Legwand (E) has 1G and 4A in 2GP.  Erat (E) has 2G and 2A in 2GP.  Santorelli (+2) has 1G in 3GP.

Goal 2: Assess the Blueline

• Can Weber, Suter, and Hamhuis continue to produce and be that steady presence on the blueline?  At this point in time, there’s no doubt in my mind.  Weber has been given a permanent A this season and his leadership and intensity on the ice reallyshows.  In the preseason, he’s (+4) still pouring on the shots (19) and has 2G  in 3GP.  Suter (+4) has 2A in 3GP.  Hamhuis (+2) has 1G and 1A in 3GP.  I don’t see any real problems here.
• Is Kevin Klein ready for top four minutes?  From the little I’ve seen in training camp, he really is having a slow start.  My opinion is that the signing of Francis Bouillon indicates that the coaching staff isn’t ready to turn over top-4 minutes to Klein.  If Bouillon is physically able to play, that will push Klein into a more manageable role and limit the team’s exposure to mistakes due to inexperience.
• Are the kids ready to play?  Alexander Sulzer, Cody Franson, Jonathan Blum and Teemu Laakso are all vying for roster.  At the beginning of camp, the team seem prepared to go with two of those four- of which Sulzer was almost guaranteed a spot due to his one-way contract.  Since then, they all have been fairly uneven.  Laakso has probably been the best of the four to this point, but will the Predators carry seven defensemen?

Goal 3: Put the Power into Powerplay

Seemingly the ever-present need, it continues to haunt this team.  Right now, the Predators are 3 of 20 (15%) with the man advantage.  Given the roster flux now, however, it’s hard to guage  anything from that yet.

• In theory, Sullivan’s re-signing was a great first step.  He’s extremely dangerous with the man advantage.
• If Colin Wilson can stay at the NHL level, that gives the team another big body to play in the slot.
• It bodes well for the powerplay if Legwand, Erat, and Santorelli can continue to show the production they are showing in camp and preseason.
• Weber and Suter appear to have picked up where they left off.

Right now, there are certainly reasons to be optimistic for the upcoming season.  Scoring is up, the second line is producing at a much greater rate, the third line is chipping in, and the stalwarts on the blueline appear to be ready for another great season.  It will be interesting to see how the efforts of Trotz and Poile translate to the regular season.

Glad to be back and looking forward to the season.