Hawk Fans Rejoice Now….Save The Worry For Later

It has been reported by the Chicago Tribune there are just a few details left before Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews are officially signed to lengthy contract extensions.

According to TSN, Kane and Toews will be rewarded with five year, $30 million contracts. My thinking was they would be signed for longer, but at their age a five year deal is really the right term for them. In five years they will be in their late twenty’s with a chance to sign another big ticket.  It remains to be seen what type of long term contracts will be permitted then.

Duncan Keith reportedly will sign a 13 year contract extension which could keep him a Blackhawk until he is 39 years old. TSN reported Keith will earn less than $6 million a year, but my thinking is his contract could still be worth well over $60 million.

The structure of NHL collective bargaining agreement could be much different in five years. Although long term contracts signed now will be honored, it is only a matter of time before the NHL will try to shift the financial burden off of some franchises. Mr. Bettman and company could try to accomplish more financial parity through long term contract restrictions.

Parity may exist in the standings but the Sabres, Hurricanes, Predators, Panthers, Thrashers and Coyotes were all struggling financially before the lockout. Unfortunately many of those franchises are still in the red today. NHL teams don’t benefit from a huge revenue sharing pool so often the financially weak continue to flounder. At some point soon salary cap limitations will need to focus more on team profitability.

League revenues may continue to increase although the gap between profitable and unprofitable teams could also widen. Increased league revenues are great for some clubs but profitability continues to not be in the cards for others, which is not a good recipe for a healthy NHL.

Blackhawk management should be applauded for doing what many doubted. The organization has now appeared to secure its three best young stars.  They needed to retain their services as they really couldn’t be replaced for any less. Hawk fans had a part in this too, as the financial commitment was easier for Hawk management because of surging ticket revenues.

General manager Stan Bowman, as well as the players, must be breathing a huge sigh of relief.  Mr. Bowman should take a deep breath as his work is just getting started.

There was little doubt in my mind all three would re-sign. Although once Marian Hossa was inked to a long term deal the handwriting was on the wall that next year’s Hawk roster will be significantly different.

The question is…..Will being different equate to being a lot worse?

A fair estimate is the Hawks will have to create about $9 million in salary cap space if the ceiling stays at $56.8 million for the 2010-2011 campaign. It also has to be noted the Hawks could play with 21 man roster instead of 23, but let’s assume they carry at least 22 players for next season. That would mean one player’s salary from this year can disappear and then every other player traded, released or demoted would have to be replaced. So the salaries of those replacing the higher priced players leaving have to be added into the salary cap calculations also.

Bowman’s big job for next year is to find a way to shed salary without depleting the roster of so much talent as to make it unlikely to reach the playoffs. That task is going to be far more difficult than working out the contract extensions for Kane, Keith and Toews.

Players being shipped out of Chicago will be dealt for draft picks or younger prospects. Next fall is when a few recent Hawk draftees as well as some Rockford Ice Hogs will get a solid opportunity to hit the ice at the United Center.

From a simplistic standpoint the easiest path to salary cap salvation for Bowman would be to eliminate two players with large contracts.

For example, over $12.7 million could be knocked off next year’s payroll by not having Brian Campbell and Cristobel Huet on the roster.

Replacing a defenseman who plays about 24 or 25 minutes a night is a challenge. The starting goalie is the most important position on a hockey team and that could be tricky move too.

Maybe Blackhawk management will choose to cast off a few three to four million dollar players. Most likely the younger cheaper replacements won’t be as talented, but there are always tradeoffs in life.

Hawk fans should rejoice but also realize the team they are watching today should be one they remember.

All of this talent can’t stay together. But now is the moment to celebrate, there’s always time to worry….

blackhawkswin@comcast.net