Not Enough Effort Or Not Enough Talent?
Al Cimaglia | Mar 31, 2011 | Comments 36
There seems to be a constant debate amongst Blackhawk fans this season.
Some say the Hawks have the talent to compete with every team in the league. Those thinking in that way believe the reason their favorite team struggles is because the players don’t put forth enough effort.
The other camp of Hawk loyalists believe the team tries hard enough. They think the reason for losses is because this club is lacking ability and know how.
The truth lies somewhere in between.
Consistent effort is a function of talent. It is that way in hockey and every other sport..
The Hawks have lacked effective effort in many losses which is a function of not having enough talent. This is especially so when missing top end players like Dave Bolland and Patrick Sharp
Effective effort is different from trying hard enough. Having the will to win is essential but players also have to have the know how to play effectively.
It is virtually impossible to have the same burning desire to win in every contest over a grueling 82 game schedule. There have been times the Hawks have fallen short and weren’t ready to play. For the most part the players have wanted to play well but as group they haven’t been as consistent as everyone would have hoped.
In professional sports consistency, effort and talent are all needed to be successful. It is virtually impossible to win consistently with a lack of talent and effort will only take a club so far.
When a franchise reaches elite status, such as the New England Patriots and the Detroit Red Wings, it is almost becomes plug and play. Certainly talent is needed but those clubs have a system of play which is structured and defined. Although talented players are needed the individual pieces become more interchangeable. A successful system of play can better absorb injuries and misfortune.
If the Hawks could have kept the majority of the Stanley Cup winning roster together they would have had a chance to reach the elite, interchangeable status. Injuries would have been easier to overcome because know how and depth was in place.
The Patriots have lost many key players to injury the last few years but always make the playoffs and have a chance at the Super Bowl. The same can be said about the Red Wings, injuries or not they qualify for the post season. Each season the roster changes for the Wings but they always play the same style and do it well.
The Blackhawks are in a tough spot. Their heart is in it but many players lack consistency and know how. Fortunately there are other teams trying to reach the playoffs in the same boat. But there is a long list of Blackhawks which can’t string together good games.
Six games to go and the Hawks are stuck on 90 points…
My guess is the Hawks will need at least 97 points to qualify for the post season. Seven points in six games doesn’t sound too difficult but…….
The Blackhawks are 11-4-2 in the second game of back to back affairs. That is an outstanding record and the Hawks will play on consecutive days once more this season.
Let’s say the Hawks aren’t as fortunate and lose the second half of the upcoming back to back. That isn’t a stretch considering fatigue, injuries and maybe the law of averages.
If that were to happen the Hawks would need to capture seven points in five games, which isn’t as easy.
Fans can rest a lot easier, at least for awhile, if the Blackhawks win the next two games. At this point two wins are a must against the Blue Jackets and Lightning.
Al’s Shots
Unfortunately, Patrick Kane as he sometimes does is attracting the wrong kind of attention.
It appeared to me and was supported by comments from Troy Murray following the loss to the Bruins that…
Kane must have chirped at Shawn Thornton on his way off the ice after his forehead was split open. Kane was a target after on his next shift and caught a slash.
I’m not sure Kane knew Thornton had been sliced open by Fernando Pisani’s skate. Maybe Kane was still upset as Thornton appeared to stick out his leg earlier when he tried to run Niklas Hjalmarsson.
If Kane knew Thornton has suffered a serious cut, it would have been best to not chirp at him. Maybe Kane didn’t realize it…If he did then it was stupid to say anything. Afterward the Bruins came on strong and they certainly didn’t need any additional motivation.
As far Thornton going knee to knee with Hammer….I don’t think that was his intent but Hammer stopped and Thornton was caught off balance. Those on the bench as well as Hammer should have been upset…They probably didn’t have the benefit of a replay.
Concerning the rumblings about Kane’s conditioning and spotty effort versus the Bruins….
Maybe he could be in better condition, but the Hawks back to back record defies the thinking that the club isn’t in good shape.
In every difficult game Kane expends a lot of energy. He goes up against bigger men and they lean on him.
Kane still had enough stamina after playing over 20 minutes in Detroit. He went through two Red Wings in the closing seconds and the result was a Hank Zetterberg hooking penalty.
Kane looks bad when he skates by players and waves his stick as he did in Boston. But before you hang him out to dry consider the complete body of work.
Yesterday, the Hawks signed Jimmy Hayes, another highly touted draft pick.
It amazes me how many fans are influenced by glowing stories on young prospect. Teams always seem to puff up their draft picks.
On rare occasion, when you see an elite talent like Kane or Jonathan Toews their ability will be obvious.
As was correctly pointed out all year by Chris Block in the Third Man In.com, the Hawks highly touted players in Rockford haven’t lived up to advanced billing.
That’s why there hasn’t been any help shipped to Chicago from Rockford.
Stan Bowman had to reach all the way to the Swedish Elite League for Marcus Kruger.
In a perfect world an Ice Hog player should have been the first choice.
After all those players are acclimated to playing in North America and have played the Hawks’ system.
Lastly, Joel Quenneville had no real choice but to start Corey Crawford versus the Bruins.
I thought he may pull Crawford after two periods because the Bruins like to crash the net. Toews went hard into Tim Thomas and the last thing the Hawks can afford is an injury to Crawford. Despite a soft goal Crawford was good.
Don’t forget, although Marty Turco is a veteran he hasn’t been a back up goalie for many years. Maybe Turco would be ready in an odd start and then again it could be just as likely he would be stale.
On Tuesday night the Hawks could have played two more hours against the Bruins and still wouldn’t have scored three goals.
Starting Crawford wasn’t why the Hawks lost…..The Bruins were much better.
Filed Under: Al Cimaglia • Chicago Blackhawks • Featured • NHL
Al, you do an outstanding job of breaking down the complexities, and identifying the simple truth of why some teams are consistently successful: the effective application of a system combined with sufficient talent.
To be fair to the Blackhawks, the integration of a winning system, and the acquistion/use of the necessary talent, has really only been in place a few years.
The comparison to DET overlooks the fact their system and players such as Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Datsyuk go back to the early 90s.
One can’t expect similar results in Chicago.
Patrick Kane gets a lot of attention because he is a flashy young guy. But as you say, there is no better perimeter player in the game today. When a person has the extraordinary talent Kane does, there are often character aspects that are, shall we say, challenging.
Stan Mikita wasn’t a choirboy, neither was Bobby Hull. Whatever his idiosyncrasies, Kane will be talked about (along with Toews) for many years as the two players who led the Hawks to the Cup.
This year has been a head-scratcher for sure, but you may remember some of the critics who said the Hawks in 2010-11 would “look like an AHL team”. How wrong they were.
And we still don’t know what will happen from now until season’s end.
The Blackhawks players know, each and every one of them, how good they have or haven’t been. And some of them probably realize they won’t be in Chicago next year.
Six games left, and it’s either Defend the Cup, or play golf.
IMHO at this point, it’s all about who wants ‘it’ more, and what they are willing to do to get it.
To be fair to the Blackhawks, the integration of a winning system, and the acquistion/use of the necessary talent, has really only been in place a few years.
Great point.
I thought the will-to-win and the effort was there against the Bs. A break or two earlier might have yielded a different result. Yes, they quit after the 3rd goal…but for me, it wasn’t a loss I was upset about. They were a spent club on that night.
Kane is a great rising star in the NHL. He’s still a pup and has a lot to learn, but we were all there ourselves once, and I’m betting we’ve all said/done things we shouldn’t have at some point in our lives. Anyone who has played just about any sport, at just about any level knows, that things are said and things are done to get the opposition off their game. No big deal, and I bet there were far worse things said during the course of that game.
Kane is just a lightning rod for that sort of stuff. His own cocky doing, probably, but let the lad grow up. I’ll tell you this, I wouldn’t want him on any other team. He’s a little man with a big heart, and a gamer through and through. He shows up for big games and walks his talk and delivers when it counts the most. Kind of like Dale Hunter was … just a lot more skilled.
Hawks won’t be playing golf anytime soon. Toews and Kane won’t let that happen.
Well said djd,
You know my view..
The will to win has been there for the most part….Effective effort from some is often lacking.
Effective being the key word, Al. I agree.
fyi: Boston’s CSN beat writer, Joe Haggerty, tweeted:
For all w/conspiracy theories Pat Kane was mystery Blackhawks bench player chirping Shawn Thornton, can say w/100% certainty it wasn’t him
And regarding the spotty effort vs the Bruins. From what I could tell, all the top guys were completely gassed in that game, including Toews. Kane + Hossa were all over the place in the Detroit game, plus are regularly being double shifted to make up for the loss of the key guys. Of course he could likely be better conditioned, but like you said, have to look at everything he does, who his opponents are, and what he’s asked to do.
I wondered about the start against the Blue Jackets since Turco has a better record against them this season (3-0) versus Crawford (0-2) but in these “must win” games it makes sense to start the goalie that there is more overall confidence in.
That is interesting cuz I watched the next shift for Kane after the incident two times…and he was targeted
although he might have been slashed for a totally unrelated reason.
Kane is the first to get blamed on many occasions…Sometimes it is his fault and other times not so.
We weren’t on the ice so we can’t know for sure…But Thornton should.
I tend to think (though could be wrong) that Kane knows who and when he can chirp – if only because he knows he’s not going to fight, and doesn’t want to put himself purposely in a position where he’s being targeted. I think the Bruin’s wanted to send a message and Kane is an easy and meaningful target given his size and his role on the team, and he wasn’t able to use his speed to get out of those situations because he was (in my opinion) gassed – I thought Toews and Hossa were knocked around a bit as well.
We don’t know though, and apparently neither do Thorton and ref.
This 100% pure opinion, based on nothing but my gut feelings about Q, but I tend to believe that handling goalies is one of his weaknesses. I thought he mishandled the Niemi/Huet situation last year and I feel that he’s overplaying “the hot hand” too much this year.
Prior to the last 5 games or so, Crawford’s stats were much worse over the course of about 10 games than Turco’s season stats. Crawford’s decline started during the 2nd half of the Hawks’ 8 game win streak, but no one seemed to notice because the Hawks were putting up 4-6 goals/night and winning. During that period Crow’s SV% was around .875 and his GAA was over 3.00. It would’ve been a good time to give him a seat – not only to recharge physically, but mentally.
Sorry, meant to reply to nrn below.
You are correct about Crawford’s performance during the win strak but I could argue the team played more loose when scoring more goals.
On the criticism of last year…He almost waited to long to stick with Niemi.
But as far this year…There are a lot of factors and one important one is the Hawks have decided their future is with Crawford.
My guess is if we see Turco for more than one game of the six remaining…
Either the Hawks are locked in a position or are out.
It has been many yaers since Turco has been anything above a C+ or B- can’t expect him to be a difference maker now.
As far as Q. and goalies …That’s an old song sung by many in Colorado….I can ‘t comment cuz I wasn’t close enough to have a sound opinion.
Crawford was definitely starting a slump during that stretch, and while he is generally composed after letting in a goal, it seemed (to me) that he was mentally and physically starting to decline at that time – simply by some of the soft goals he let in + his reactions in those instances. Should you ride a hot goalie – yes, but you do need to know when to pull the breaks, and I don’t think Q ever does that. So yes, I agree with the assertion that handling goalies is one of his weaknesses
I would think if Q. was going to play Turco this week it would have been Tues. especially after winning Monday….But who knows.
I would be surprised if Turco starts Friday night but I have been surprised before…especially this season.
Each of the times I thought would be good for Turco to start and Crawford to get a break, I was wrong and he was back in net. Tuesday would have been good – and I thought Crawford might get pulled (he wasn’t playing badly at all but thought having a goalie switch might give the team a little jump). I’ve read elsewhere that Crawford will be getting the start though, which makes sense since we’re still trying to secure a spot.
Who cares what Kane said to Thornton? Thornton’s a clown.
Kane spends his winters dealing with much bigger men taking runs at him. So…when he sees a tough guy taking his sweet time getting off the ice after a cut.
Big deal.
Kane is an arrogant little pain in the rear but I like that and every team needs one. The guy everyone loves to hate.
Anyways, I think the lack of effort is an irritating excuse. Boston was just a better team and they clearly demonstrated that by winning pretty handily.
The Morin/Hendry injuries didn’t help either in terms of flexibility.
They should have just enough to get into the playoffs but if they aren’t mostly healthy that could create an early exit. That includes Campbell’s foot. He did not look like he was skating well.
And then there’s that 3rd group, who felt the Hawks were talented enough, but statistically “unlucky” for much of the season and would regress toward the mean:
http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2011/2/19/2003049/panic-on-the-streets-of-madison-a-rational-response
Al, if you’ve got 15 mins you might enjoy the above read. I posted that after the Hawks lost to the BJ’s when many wrote them off.
I could have done the same type of forecast using scoring chances or team Corsi, but it’s too much work for just a slight bit more accuracy. Plus, you also have to factor in goalie performance with the other two methods. A good example would be the Leafs last year. They were actually 3rd in the league in team Corsi, but had the worst goaltending by far which resulted in them having the 2nd worst record.
Although I enjoy statistical analysis, I use as a way to “temper” my beliefs about the team. Like you stated, I know that “the truth lies somewhere in between” the eye test and the what the numbers show. Stats keep my opinion grounded somewhere between the two realities.
That being said, IMO “luck” can’t be the only reason the Hawks have ended up on the wrong end of 1 goals games – whereas Detroit has thrived in them. Effective effort? Maybe.
Although it often feels like we’re in the same boat as earlier this year, as of a week ago the only team in the West hotter than the Hawks by any significant margin since the ASB has been SJ. Hawks have been playing as well as VAN which definitely isn’t a bad thing:
http://i924.photobucket.com/albums/ad90/ChicagoNativeSon/Stats%20-%20Projections/RecordsSinceASB.png
Nice to hear Sharpy’s on his way back. If the Hawks make the playoffs and get a good matchup, they *should* be able to get through the first round. But without Bolland, I don’t see them going any further than that.
(Saw your comment from yesterday, I’ll post a link to my playoff predictions in a couple of weeks)
Nicely done.
Bad luck is difficut to quantify in terms of wins and losses.
Although their injuries have not been as bad as many other teams………I don’t think the schedule could have been written any worse for the Hawks.
Maybe Sharp could be back by mid next week….Bolland on the other hand seems to be no closer to returning than he was last week.
Good discussion from everyone.
I can’t stand those comments from bloggers and posters who seem to feel that if the Hawks lose it’s because they didn’t put out the necessary effort whereas if they win it’s because they decided to really try.
If you follow their twisted logic then all the Hawks would have to do is come with ‘desire’ every night and they’d go 82-0. Well hello no team has been that talented ever!
This team has 5 rookies for crying out loud!! Bickell, Crawford, Leddy, Kruger, Dowell
Plus Stalberg who only previously played 1/2 a year in the NHL.
And still like Chicagonativeson says they have been playing at a high pace for the last 20-25 games.
They are not deep enough or experienced enough to weather significant injuries without a drop off in production – Hossa and Campbell earlier now Bolland and Sharp.
If they make the playoffs (and I think they will) the experience for the new guys will be invaluable.
The Hawks will be able to bring back those players that pass the playoff test and replace the others with better players.
I have no doubt they’ll put up a good fight this year and expect them to be back in the top 4 next year.
As for Kane – I agree and have said so here before. He’s not a leader in the Toews mold but a leader nonetheless.
This organIzation has never had to deal with success. They went from the pits to the top in 3 years. The learning curve was only one direction up. Now they have to deal with coming down the mountain and climbing back up. That takes an entirely different skill set and mental attitude on the part of the coaching staff, scouts, the captain of the team, and senior management.
Let’s face it they are plugging serious holes with players who are a step or two below the players that had to be jettisoned. They will never admit to rebuilding because that does not bring in money. The Ice Hogs stunk this year because all the good players are already at the UC. Yes Pittsburgh can replace players with ease because their minor league team has won 6 division or conference championships in the past 10 years. The Ice Hogs have finished 2nd, 4th, 3rd, and 8th in the West of the AHL.
The quality just is not deep in the Hawks system.
Frank…
Those are very good points. Everything has happened here in a positive way quickly.
I can’t cut much slack with the Ice Hogs though…
The time table for young players to develop is sketchy …But my guess is many of those in Rockford won’t ever be good enough to have long NHL careers.
I’m hoping it’s just a “time gap” that exists in the Hawks’ system. They shed much of their young talent but acquired quite a few draft picks and young players last year, so it will be 2-3 years before much of the talent can be gauged as having NHL potential or not.
In the meantime, the Hawks are top heavy contractually and don’t even have roster room for high-end young players in Chicago – even if they are on entry level contracts like Leddy’s or Beach’s since they still equate to well over $1M cap hits. In coming years, some current Hawks contracts will be expiring or trade-able, so I’m probably less concerned about the farm than others are.
I still don’t agree with the Hawks flipping Cullimore for Leddy and sacrificing a year off Leddy’s contract, but it is what it is.
Agreed on the Leddy-Cullimore flip, especially now with his low minutes on ice. I can’t imagine how he will be able to grow and develop with the little time he spends on ice.
or short one
Well, you can argue that all the good players from a couple years ago are in Rockford and no one replaced them.
Really, the Hawks didn’t rely much on Rockford for anyone. Leddy and Cullimore are the only ones playing more than 10 games. And I’m nore sure Cullimore should realldy count.
Bickell, Dowell, and Skille are the only graduates from the previous season.
Rockford’s best player has been journeyman Taffe (who has NHL experience with Pitts). But, he’s obviously considered a non-factor for Hawks given his NHL time this year – especially with all their issues at center.
In their defense, though, they do have a ton of first full year players. Even Beach who’s been around for a while, is in his first full AHL year (which, I guess, that it took him so long to get there could be a sign in and of itself).
There’s a real dirth of scoring prospects is the big problem.
I think this off season the Hawks need to find some help for the bottom half of the roster and not count on any Hogs.
If one or two dmen or whomever else come through for next year great….Take it as a good surprise but don’t count on it.
Going to throw out another point — beyond skill, beyond will, there has to be what some might call instinct or sense or hockey smarts.
Best examples — Hossa, Towes and Kane. All 3 of these guys, everyone would agree, have the skill. On most every night, you would agree that Toews and Hossa have the will. Kane, not quite as much (and when he does, we all notice what a great game he had, either dominating in the O zone or more likely, really noticeable in the defensive end).
Now let’s look at sense/hockey smarts. I believe everyone would agree that Hossa, Toews and Kane all have hockey smarts and each exhibits it in their own way. We see Hossa’s nose for the puck, almost always taking the right angles. We see Toew’s lateral mobility combined with his sense of how/when to move around the net. And Kane, well, we all know full well about his uncanny vision and sense of how plays are developing, seeming to almost always find the open guy.
And this, really, is something that can’t be taught. You either have guys that have hockey smarts/great feel for the game or you don’t. Matching a playing that doesn’t have the hockey smarts doesn’t always work. That player can have the will and desire to succeed and can use every ounce of their talent — but the lack of hockey smarts will always come back and haunt. I would say that Gretzky wasn’t the greatest/strongest skater — but man, he had hockey sense beyond any of his peers.
I believe this is really where the new players lack — and one of the reasons why I really like Marcus Kruger. He seems to have great hockey sense/smarts. He’s definitely got some skill to go with it along with heart/will.
On the other hand, if you look at a guy like Bickell — he’s got size for sure. He’s got talent for sure (a wicked snap shot) and certainly has physical size. But where he lacks, and where so many on this team lack is in the hockey smarts dept. How many times have we seen Bickell use his size, take the puck low, comes around the back of the net . . . and then . . . nothing. No good pass out to an open teammate, no shot or drive to the net. More often than not, by that time we see a defensive player either poke the puck away or force Bickell to make some crappy pass that inevitably ends up outside the zone! There are some guys that have the talent and even the will – but because of their lack of hockey sense or smarts, will not succeed and too many of them will drag a team down with them.
That, IMO, is what the Hawks problem is this year. Some of the guys no longer with the club HAD hockey smarts to go along with whatever level of talent they had. That’s how you account for a guy like Sopel — not that talented by most measures, not a great skater — but clearly had great hockey sense and ability to time his shot blocks (that BTW takes great hockey smarts). Or Ladd or many of the others. What we have now are too many guys with not enough “smarts” and that is what has killed this Hawk team this year.
You called it hockey smarts….I wrote “know how”…
That why it was risky to go younger.
I think we all agree in the smarts dept. but were going older while staying cheap is a risk too.
Are there good SMART hockey players available for the same cost as Bickell, Skille and Dowell or even Stalberg.
I think Frolik is smarter than Skille but we couldn’t have afforded his salary at the start of the year. Same with Campoli and Cullimore.
Pisani has good hockey sense, costs about the same as Bickell or Dowell but arguably he hasn’t contributed more than those two – in the playoffs he may prove more valuable but we’ll have to see on that one.
I think SB has done pretty well given the options he had and they are in a place now to improve next year with more cap room and improved (hopefully) play from the new young guys who stay.
Besides this year’s story is not finished either. If they make the playoffs I would say the risk paid off if they miss then then IMO it didn’t pay off.
8 players signed here for a total of less than
$5 mill is a lot of the story……
Yes more experience could have been available for near the minimum….
But it was more a problem of trying to turn players which thought they were top six forwards into 4th line players….an experienced player is better able to know his limits.
Also the Hawks couldn’t afford to have any dead weight when they were so close to the cap.
How much did Boynton and Scott help this team??
That’s another $1 million in cap space.
Tough spot for Bowman…Little cap space and no margin for error.
Agree Al on Boynton and Scott.
They weren’t that costly in $ but relative to the Hawks cap they were costly mistakes.
All GMs make mistakes – it’s just as you said the Hawks had no margin for error.
Very well said on Kane in terms of considering the total body. Good to hear some appreciation for what this guy DOES bring. Does anyone on this team draw more penalties btw? Kane has also flat denied the chirp on Thorton. “you got the wrong guy”….
It’s hard to argue with black and white…
There aren’t many 22 year olds counted on more than Kane and the last two years he has averaged a point per game.
He will still improve if he has the desire….
Both and Kane and Toews will probably be better players in three years.
I think they are both better this year than last. Scary what could be in 3 years.
Very interesting read Al.
Consistent effort is something every Predators fan hears virtually every day. It’s a fact of life given the lack of elite talent up front- something that Chicago does not lack.
It’d be interesting to see you take the effort/talent discussion further and do a little side-by-side of Nashville and Chicago (both having injury issues with Nashville in the top 5 or 6 in total man games lost this season).
When playoff spots are decided I will have some thoughts on the Preds.