Tick Tock Antti Is On The Clock
Al Cimaglia | Jul 28, 2010 | Comments 14
The update for now is there really isn’t anything new, which might not be good news for Antti Niemi fans.
Both sides have prepared for arbitration and will be participating in the hearing early tomorrow morning. There is still a chance the arbitration could be avoided but …
From what I can piece together there appears to be a hard and fast line in the sand for the Blackhawks. Niemi would have to agree to a contract for less than $2 million. Maybe there is some wiggle room but there doesn’t appear to be much.
This battle seems more about the new Blackhawks regime not wanting a player’s salary to escalate too high, too fast. Dustin Byfuglien and Kris Versteeg went from near the league minimum to around $3 million per year in one giant leap. They are also no longer here.
The new fiscal responsibility on West Madison Street is partly because there is no other choice. But beyond the strained cap picture there is also a different management style in place. Unless players are considered to be in the elite category they will have to progress to big contracts not leap up to them.
My own cocktail napkin math indicated if both Niklas Hjalmarsson and Niemi were signed for a combined $5.5 million the Hawks should be alright. That was a somewhat educated guess and I wrote my conclusion some weeks ago.
Hjalmarsson rang the bell at $3.5 million so $2 million would be left for Antti. According to my whispers, $2 million dollars is supposedly Niemi’s limit. Maybe it is coincidence or I guessed correctly.
The hearing might be avoided with a $200,000 bump from the Bowman camp. At this point Niemi and Bill Zito may not want to chance a arbitrator’s decision. Even if team Niemi hits a grand slam it is not likely they will find another club willing to pay them over $3 million. If they did, it might not be in place where Niemi could shine.
The most interesting scenario could be if the arbitrator awards Niemi the average of Jonathan Quick and Pekka Rinne’s salaries. That amount would be $ 2.6 million, which seems about right for the young Cup winning goalie. But if the Hawks would pass on signing Niemi for that amount it would indicate a very tight financial posture.
Possibly they split the difference of $2.0-$2.6 and come up with $2.3 million, which was my original guess at Niemi’s new deal. The arbitrator could place more value on a Stanley Cup victory than a lack of NHL experience. If that were the case Niemi could be awarded a Rinne like contract.
Over $3 million and the Hawks walk away, at least that is what I’m hearing. Between $2 million and $3 million, Bowman may have some options. He could step up and re-sign Niemi for slightly more than originally thought. Or depending on the cap consequences Bowman might be able to get a mid-round draft pick in exchange for Niemi, and do a sign and trade.
Lastly, besides Marty Turco waiting in the wings word has come out the Hawks have contacted Jose Theodore. It makes sense Bowman would consider all options. It also doesn’t hurt to apply a little more pressure to the Niemi camp, business is business.
Nowadays the Blackhawks front office is doing business much differently.
Al’s Shots
Interesting the Hawks finally announced late this afternoon the re-signings of Bryan Bickell and Jack Skille. Maybe all the t’s weren’t crossed and the i’s weren’t dotted in Toronto until now…
The nice thing about writing a blog is it fortifies my consistency, or I hope it does. In my view if you flop around like a wind sock it’s hard to establish credibility from those who follow your work. Although I am not always correct my goal is to be consistent.
As far as the exact cap space left in Chicago I have no way of actually knowing. Cap Geek is a great site but because of the complexity of the salary cap with bonuses, credits, one-way, two-way contracts etc. it is extremely complicated to get an exact figure.
There are those who write as if they know exactly. Some of those writing are the same people who have misjudged the Hawks salary cap from before the Kane, Keith and Toews re-signing.
My stance has been not to pretend to know when I don’t.
blackhawkswin@comcast.net
Filed Under: Al Cimaglia • Featured • Featured Rumors • NHL
Al, thanks for the update.
Actually, as I mentioned to you, the Theodore item comes from La Presse in Montreal…in terms of its quality, probably the leading newspaper for hockey coverage in Canada right now. So there have probably been substantial discussions.
It appears Stan has a few options. Turco or Theodore in net are sound alternatives, and Theo was strong behind a porous Caps team last year.
Two vets who have lots to be hungry for.
It’s a tough situation for all parties involved, but there’s only so much money.
Bowman has done his best to get the books in order, after the free-spending of the Tallon days.
Sometimes changes like this can be good. It can give the team a new focus and motivation. We saw what the Coyotes and Avs did last year after the so-called experts predicted they would finish in the West basement.
Hawks fans have a Stanley Cup Championship team. Instead of worrying about what was lost in terms of personnel, and might go wrong, they might want to enjoy that fact, and look ahead to what the new faces can do.
That’s my perspective, anyway…and I am looking forward to what happens next year.
I agree Dave, Turco and Theo are sound alternatives. My preference would be for Turco … I’m just wondering how many miles his puck moving ability would save for Duncan Keith and Campbell. Significant mileage indeed would be my guess.
Anyway, good blog Al, your consistency is why many of us look here first.
Antti avoids arbitration and signs a 1 yr at 1.8. I’m stickin’ to it.
Thanks…
If he signs ahead of time I am thinking $2.1-$2.3.
Zito will roll the dice for less because he figures they will at least be awarded Quick’s money.
here’s a nightmare scenario for the Hawks
Niemi wins $3m or so in arbitration and the Hawks walk away then sign Turco/Theodore
Wilson signs Niemi for 2.5 which the Hawks can’t match because it’s greater than 80% of 3M. Bowman absolutely cannot let that happen. OR worse still Neimi signs with SJ for 2.3 and Chi can’t match because they already signed Turco/Theodore.
SO.. I’ll stick with my prediction of a last second resolution avoiding arbitration at 2.3 – 2.5.
At 2.5 it’ll be a tough year financially but they’ll suck it up and get some breathing room the next year. Then we can sign Niemi long term which is what the Hawks should have in mind as the ultimate goal here.
SJ can’t sign Niemi for less than 80% of award amount regardless of how many goalies the Hawks have already signed.
If it deosn’t go to arbitration it won’t take $2.5 to settle it.
If Niemi’s award amount is less than $3 mill and the Hawks can somehow sign and trade they would do so…Niemi would end up in Philly, on the Island or maybe Edmonton..but they won’t trade to a conference foe if they could help it.
Don’t forget SJ is still lookig for a top pairing defender and they don’t have a lot of cap space.
I don’t understand Al, why SJ couldn’t sign him for less then 80% – he’s a UFA at that point isn’t he?
My comment was incomplete..but my point was if the Hawks walk away and Niemi is re-signed..as in your example for 2.3 after being awarded 3 mill(less than 80%) the Hawks could match the offer by the Sharks or whomever within 7 days.
So SJ wouldn’t necessarily be able to get Niemi for less than 20% off the award amount without the Hawks having an option.
If that scenario was a possibility the Hawks would make sure they had the flexibility…is my guess.
Niemi would be a UFA only to point.
The rule states..
(c) If a Club exercises its walk-away right, the following
applies:
(i) If the player accepts an offer from a
New Club in respect of that year of the contract which the Prior
Club has walked-away from that is less than 80% of the award for
such year, the Prior Club may, within seven (7) days after the
date it receives the applicable Offer Sheet, elect to match the
offer of the New Club and the Player and the Prior Club shall
enter into a Player Contract on those terms and conditions;
Most likely a moot point because…
My thinking is if they are going to walk away the Hawks will sign another goalie for considerably less….that will be their choice as Niemi will move on and so will the Hawks.
I agree with you, it’s likely a moot point and if the Hawks walk away they’ll sign somebody for considerably less and move on.
This also means they likely wouldn’t match even a low offer to Niemi. If that happens that would be a PR mess for SB – if fans see Niemi making a low-ish salary somewhere else and it’s thought that the Blackhawks could have/should have paid the equivalent to retain him.
I guess I’m suggesting this a reason SB might give in a little rather than go arbitration.
A-Day is here.
At least they are doing it first thing in the morning, so there is no waiting around today.
If Niemi is gone, I think I’d lean towards Turco, I used to lean towawrds Theodore but that point djd brings up is a great one. Turco is a master at playing the puck, something that Niemi was terrible at.. Imagine the Hawks transition game with Turco back there.. It might get even better
The arbitrator has up to 48 hours to return a ruling though.
Damn. I’d love for it to be decided by tomorrow afternoon, at least.
It’s a long weekend here in Canada and I don’t want to think about this.
My guess……. decision will be by close of business tomorrow if not sooner.
Folks, to add to the perspective on this situation, Andrew Ladd just signed a one year deal for $2.35.
So when Stan said “guys want raises”, he wasn’t kidding.
If Antti is focused solely on the money, he may not be wearing the Indian Head next year.
All the talk of him looking for 3 mill etc…
The Hawks had a plan and they to chose to replace him for a lot less…that wasn a huge raise…
I say only… but here it is different now…get Bickell for 1.7 mill less…