Not necessarily the ‘ideal’ situation, but business is business.

I also wonder if Niemi really feels comfortable being a celebrity hockey player. He strikes me (at least from what we have seen in the media) as being a more reserved type.

Not everyone is cut out for the pressures and the hoopla of being a pro athlete in a major market. And that’s not a knock on the individual, just another factor to be considered.

In any case, we shall see soon enough.

No way.

I think it’s a huge gamble for them to go to arbitration because they might win – weird eh?

Exactly the point of the blog!

The Hawks can trade Nimei after the ruling but the acquiring team, I believe, has to keep him for a year.

If he hits a homerun Niemi won’t be tradeable unless maybe a three way deal… possibly like Calder….Havlat.

An interested team could just wait an deal with Niemi as a UFA…and not have to give any up and nvolve the Hawks.

Even if a team like the Flyers found a way to get Niemi as a UFA…they will try to sign him for much less than the award amount.

So winning the arb hearing might not get him anything except a trip out of town.

The acceptance part is all up to the Hawks not Niemi.

Niemi has to accept the ruling if the Hawks sign the deal.

If the Hawks don’t Niemi has no contract but does become a UFA.

I also think the Islanders could be buyers.

Flyers may be cap-strapped, but don’t you think if Holmgren has a shot at getting the Hawks’ Cup winning goalie, he takes it?

Basically, with so many wacky things going on in the NHL these days, nothing would surprise me.

Now, my question is…if the arbitrator rules in the Hawks’ favor, do Niemi/Zito have to accept the ruling, and could this hurt the Hawks because Niemi/Zito would be unhappy with the dollars?

If Zito thinks there is then this’ll end up in arbitration with Zito hoping that they win and the Hawks walk away. Even if the Hawks accept Niemi still gets a huge raise and has his UFA status coming up.

BUT if that deal is not there Niemi may be screwed by winning arbitration – if the Hawks walk away which I expect they would. Niemi would be setting himself up poorly for his UFA year to be on a non-playoff team. He could easily lose more $ on his UFA contract than he won in arbitration.

I think it’s a huge gamble for them to go to arbitration because they might win – weird eh?

The course that makes the most sense for Niemi is to take a 1 year deal with the Hawks, probably 2.3 – 2.5 and play well, by doing so really setting himself up for UFA in 11-12. At that time the Hawks could afford a multi year contract (I think).

The ‘hawks on the other hand, are likely looking to tie him up long-term for cheap.

Al, can they accept arbitration, sign, and then trade him? I thought they had to retain him for at least a year.

But if Niemi hits a homerun the chances of trading him are slim.

If it were to happen… probably would be a big multi-team transaction.

As referenced in the blog the most likely spots except for Philly who has cap issues like the Hawks and SJ who signed a Niity for $2 mill already… are non playoff teams…Col. isn’t spending and they already have Anderson….Ducks no way.

There really aren’t many choices for Niemi.

The Hawks have two days to sign the award contract…if not Niemi becomes a UFA.

Another club is not going to pay the contract the Hawks passed on…it is a buyers market. So his negotiations start out less then the amount the Hawks passed on.

So Niemi going to arbitartion is a big risk for not only the Hawks but more so for him.

1) Hawks win and Niemi stays
2) Niemi wins and Hawks accept and Niemi stays (and likely someone else gets traded)
3) Niemi wins and Hawks accept but then trade him
4) Niemi wins and Hawks walk away leaving Niemi free to negotiate any contract with any club however if that contract is for only 80% of the arbitration award or less the Hawks have the right to match

Am I correct in thinking that the parties don’t have to sign the contract even given the arbitration ruling?

Besides the teams that need goalies, there are teams that have cap room.

That could be the Flyers (who definitely need a goalie), the Sharks (maybe), the Isles, the Avs, the Oilers, the Ducks…who knows.

A Stanley Cup winning goaltender is always of interest.

1) Is Niemi realistic about the market and his relative ability, or does he think he “won” the Cup for the team?

2) Is Zito patient enough to play for the Big Score next year?

3) Is the designated arbitrator pro-labor, or pro-management?

I know I can’t answer any of these questions, so it’s going to be a waiting game for the fans from here on out.

http://www.nhl.com/cba/2005-CBA.pdf

My feeling is similar to yours – both sides probably realize that if Niemi is to stay with the Hawks it is almost certainly going to a 1 year contract (whether arbitrated or not). If Niemi wants to stay I think they’ll find a compromise number (2.6?) for the 1 year and then he can get his big $$ next year (I think this is the wise choice for Niemi)

If he is willing to leave the Hawks (and maybe the NHL becuz as you stated it’s not a goalie market) he’ll go to arbitration and presumably if he wins he’s gone from Chi. If he he loses the Hawks get a deal.

I think Niemi will choose to stay for obvious reasons (like a certain 4 d-men) but what do I know??

Thanks… and what was the link for the CBA I want to save that one.

I think because Nimei is soon to be 27 he would be eligible for free agency next season and as you said the Hawks couldn’t go for a two yr.

Although not everyone agrees… that is the way I see it for now.

As you point out, there are risks on both sides…

Maybe Niemi and Zito are hoping the Hawks clear enough cap space to afford a deal in the $2.5 range…but at some stage it becomes very difficult for Bowman.

So in a sense, as you have previously observed, Doug Wilson accomplished what he set out to do: to make life very uncomfortable for Bowman cap-wise, and force him to trade players he otherwise would have kept.

Even if Crawford or a vet like Theodore/Turco is called on…and who knows what Toivonen is capable of with good coaching and a good team in front of him, the Blackhawks may be able to carry on without Niemi.

Not an ideal situation, but if Niemi wants to be a Blackhawk, some compromise needs to be made by him and his agent.

And as we’ve seen, taking the big money too soon can work against a player.