Niemi At Risk…Will Hawks Move in a Different Direction?
Al Cimaglia | Jul 23, 2010 | Comments 22
Antti Niemi’s arbitration hearing is set for July 29, and the Blackhawks third annual Fan Convention begins the following day. It would be best for Hawks management to have Niemi’s contract put to bed by next Tuesday. In that way all media focus can be placed on the Fan Convention which will be a huge celebration for Hawk loyalists.
I don’t believe Niemi’s contract negotiation will be settled by an arbitrator unless the Hawks have already decided to go in a different direction. There are risks for both sides in going that route, but Niemi has the most to lose.
Even if with an arbitration ruling coming in the neighborhood of $3.5-$4 million, Niemi will have trouble. The cap strapped Stan Bowman would walk away and Niemi would become an unrestricted free agent. Agent Bill Zito and Niemi would have to go out in the open market and most likely no franchise will pay close to the awarded amount. So even if the young guy wins he could lose because this is not the best time to seek a new job with another club.
Maybe a franchise with cap space would be interested in Niemi and he could sign a contract for more than the Hawks would have paid him before the arbitration settlement. But it also could be much more difficult for Niemi to pad his stats for a big free agent push the following summer if he is on a non- playoff contender. Facing upwards of 30 shots each game plus many more rebound opportunities will be a lot different than playing in front of Chicago’s top four defenders.
Bowman isn’t in the best spot but at the end of the day he will still have his job and there are other goal tenders available. It appears Marty Turco could be a cap friendly replacement for Niemi. Niemi may not have as many options available to him as Bowman. If the Hawks walked away and Niemi signed an offer sheet with another team for less than 80% of his arbitration award the Hawks could match.
**The Hawks can’t seek a two year arbitration ruling because Niemi will be eligible to be a free agent next July 1. (Stick taps to well informed reader RJF who corrected my mistake on the CBA.)
Zito knows all about the risks to his client, and because Niemi has a short resume there are many. From what I have heard the negotiations are proceeding at a snail’s pace.
My guess is Niemi signs a one year extension for less than $2.5 million and stays with the Blackhawks, but my confidence is waning. He would still get a nice raise although probably not as much as before Niklas Hjalmarsson’s offer sheet. But if the Hawks didn’t win the Cup, Niemi would probably have settled for an extension in the $1.5 million range, so it isn’t all bad.
By re-signing with the Hawks before arbitration Niemi accomplishes a few things which are very important. He stays with a pretty good team and goal tender coach who has helped him improve. In 2010-2011, Niemi will have a great chance to prove he is a legit number one goal keeper over an entire season.
If Niemi improves, and I believe he will, the money will be there for him next summer. Maybe it won’t be with the Blackhawks but Niemi will get a large contract somewhere as long as he proves to be a dependable starting goal keeper. Mr. Zito realizes the same and will most likely agree to a contract extension for his client by early next week.
If for some reason Hawk management is not as high on Niemi as most believe there will be an arbitration hearing involving both parties next Thursday. If that is the case Bowman has options and Turco waiting in the wings.
Al’s Shots
I feel bad for the fans of the Coyotes as there has been some recent rumblings reported over the plight to find new ownership in Phoenix.
Unfortunately this does not come as a shock.
Why would anyone want to buy the Coyotes after Jerry Reinsdorf walked away from a very generous, low risk opportunity?
If the shrewd Reinsdorf passes, I wouldn’t want to be next in line to buy.
blackhawkswin@comcast.net
Filed Under: Al Cimaglia • Chicago Blackhawks • Featured • Featured Rumors • NHL
Al, thanks for this article.
As you point out, there are risks on both sides…
Maybe Niemi and Zito are hoping the Hawks clear enough cap space to afford a deal in the $2.5 range…but at some stage it becomes very difficult for Bowman.
So in a sense, as you have previously observed, Doug Wilson accomplished what he set out to do: to make life very uncomfortable for Bowman cap-wise, and force him to trade players he otherwise would have kept.
Even if Crawford or a vet like Theodore/Turco is called on…and who knows what Toivonen is capable of with good coaching and a good team in front of him, the Blackhawks may be able to carry on without Niemi.
Not an ideal situation, but if Niemi wants to be a Blackhawk, some compromise needs to be made by him and his agent.
And as we’ve seen, taking the big money too soon can work against a player.
RJF,
Thanks… and what was the link for the CBA I want to save that one.
I think because Nimei is soon to be 27 he would be eligible for free agency next season and as you said the Hawks couldn’t go for a two yr.
Although not everyone agrees… that is the way I see it for now.
Sorry, didn’t notice that it was the previous CBA, so I guess LTC’s link below is better, but for what it’s worth the link I used was nhlfa.com/cba.
ok thanks
Hey Al – I looked up the CBA as well to read about walk away rights and found what RJF was referring to although his site is for the previous CBA. Here is the link for the current CBA and it’s true the Hawks can only get a 1 year arbitration becuz Niemi is due to be UFA next season.
http://www.nhl.com/cba/2005-CBA.pdf
My feeling is similar to yours – both sides probably realize that if Niemi is to stay with the Hawks it is almost certainly going to a 1 year contract (whether arbitrated or not). If Niemi wants to stay I think they’ll find a compromise number (2.6?) for the 1 year and then he can get his big $$ next year (I think this is the wise choice for Niemi)
If he is willing to leave the Hawks (and maybe the NHL becuz as you stated it’s not a goalie market) he’ll go to arbitration and presumably if he wins he’s gone from Chi. If he he loses the Hawks get a deal.
I think Niemi will choose to stay for obvious reasons (like a certain 4 d-men) but what do I know??
At this point, it all boils down to personalities:
1) Is Niemi realistic about the market and his relative ability, or does he think he “won” the Cup for the team?
2) Is Zito patient enough to play for the Big Score next year?
3) Is the designated arbitrator pro-labor, or pro-management?
I know I can’t answer any of these questions, so it’s going to be a waiting game for the fans from here on out.
If the Hawks are offering Jonathan Quick money the Niemi camp is in a tough spot.
Al, perhaps one of the more bizarre aspects of this negotiation is that Zito might just decide if he can only get 2M-2.5M out of the Hawks, he shops Niemi to the highest bidder.
Besides the teams that need goalies, there are teams that have cap room.
That could be the Flyers (who definitely need a goalie), the Sharks (maybe), the Isles, the Avs, the Oilers, the Ducks…who knows.
A Stanley Cup winning goaltender is always of interest.
…as a footnote to my comment, I am basing this on the possibility Zito/Niemi and/or the Hawks don’t like the arbitrator’s decision.
Am I correct in thinking that the parties don’t have to sign the contract even given the arbitration ruling?
Dave – I as understand it here are the scenarios for arbitration
1) Hawks win and Niemi stays
2) Niemi wins and Hawks accept and Niemi stays (and likely someone else gets traded)
3) Niemi wins and Hawks accept but then trade him
4) Niemi wins and Hawks walk away leaving Niemi free to negotiate any contract with any club however if that contract is for only 80% of the arbitration award or less the Hawks have the right to match
That is an accurate assessment.
But if Niemi hits a homerun the chances of trading him are slim.
If it were to happen… probably would be a big multi-team transaction.
The answer to the first part is the Niemi camp is looking at alternatives…
As referenced in the blog the most likely spots except for Philly who has cap issues like the Hawks and SJ who signed a Niity for $2 mill already… are non playoff teams…Col. isn’t spending and they already have Anderson….Ducks no way.
There really aren’t many choices for Niemi.
The Hawks have two days to sign the award contract…if not Niemi becomes a UFA.
Another club is not going to pay the contract the Hawks passed on…it is a buyers market. So his negotiations start out less then the amount the Hawks passed on.
So Niemi going to arbitartion is a big risk for not only the Hawks but more so for him.
Al, if the Habs can’t sign Carey Price, they might be players for Niemi.
I also think the Islanders could be buyers.
Flyers may be cap-strapped, but don’t you think if Holmgren has a shot at getting the Hawks’ Cup winning goalie, he takes it?
Basically, with so many wacky things going on in the NHL these days, nothing would surprise me.
Now, my question is…if the arbitrator rules in the Hawks’ favor, do Niemi/Zito have to accept the ruling, and could this hurt the Hawks because Niemi/Zito would be unhappy with the dollars?
I don’t think there will be as many options for Niemi at a price over $3 mill..
So winning the arb hearing might not get him anything except a trip out of town.
The acceptance part is all up to the Hawks not Niemi.
Niemi has to accept the ruling if the Hawks sign the deal.
If the Hawks don’t Niemi has no contract but does become a UFA.
My guess is if Niemi signs before arbitration it’s 1 year for under $2mil or a multi-year deal around $2.5/each.
I agree Shruew, though I’d lean towards a one year at about 1.8. Why wouldn’t he take that and prove he’s worth more when he becomes a UFA next year? My guess, that’s what he’ll do.
The ‘hawks on the other hand, are likely looking to tie him up long-term for cheap.
Al, can they accept arbitration, sign, and then trade him? I thought they had to retain him for at least a year.
I think you have been talking to Bowman…
I think Niemi could sign today for $1.8…I still think an arb ruling might not get him more than $2.3
The Hawks can trade Nimei after the ruling but the acquiring team, I believe, has to keep him for a year.
If he hits a homerun Niemi won’t be tradeable unless maybe a three way deal… possibly like Calder….Havlat.
An interested team could just wait an deal with Niemi as a UFA…and not have to give any up and nvolve the Hawks.
Even if a team like the Flyers found a way to get Niemi as a UFA…they will try to sign him for much less than the award amount.
Is there a team out there willing to give Niemi right now say 16M for 4 years a la Halak?
If Zito thinks there is then this’ll end up in arbitration with Zito hoping that they win and the Hawks walk away. Even if the Hawks accept Niemi still gets a huge raise and has his UFA status coming up.
BUT if that deal is not there Niemi may be screwed by winning arbitration – if the Hawks walk away which I expect they would. Niemi would be setting himself up poorly for his UFA year to be on a non-playoff team. He could easily lose more $ on his UFA contract than he won in arbitration.
I think it’s a huge gamble for them to go to arbitration because they might win – weird eh?
The course that makes the most sense for Niemi is to take a 1 year deal with the Hawks, probably 2.3 – 2.5 and play well, by doing so really setting himself up for UFA in 11-12. At that time the Hawks could afford a multi year contract (I think).
Is there a team out there willing to give Niemi right now say 16M for 4 years a la Halak?
No way.
I think it’s a huge gamble for them to go to arbitration because they might win – weird eh?
Exactly the point of the blog!
Al, good point…my sense/feeling is the longer the negotiation goes on, the less chance of Niemi staying in Chicago.
Not necessarily the ‘ideal’ situation, but business is business.
I also wonder if Niemi really feels comfortable being a celebrity hockey player. He strikes me (at least from what we have seen in the media) as being a more reserved type.
Not everyone is cut out for the pressures and the hoopla of being a pro athlete in a major market. And that’s not a knock on the individual, just another factor to be considered.
In any case, we shall see soon enough.
Next year Bryzgalov, Vokoun and Anderson are eligible for UFA status with the first two likely becoming UFAs. Another good reason for Niemi to stay with the Hawks and make sure he has a good year himself, coming up to his own UFA status.