Wilson Looks To Deflate The Hawks
Al Cimaglia | Jul 09, 2010 | Comments 50
This shouldn’t come as a shock although it looked like the Hawks might have dodged a bullet. But Doug Wilson thought otherwise and signed Niklas Hjalmarsson to a four year, $14 million offer sheet.
As was outlined a few weeks ago this possibility made as much sense as any offer sheet could.
The Sharks needed to replace a top defender and they don’t mind shipping off draft selections. Hjalmarsson is only 23 years old and does everything at a high level except pass the puck. But he has time to improve that skill and odds are he will be even better with a couple of years of seasoning.
Is Hammer currently worth $3.5 million per season?….It depends on where you sit. Pragmatically he isn’t a top pairing defender on the Hawks but he might be on the Sharks.
Stan Bowman has a decision to make and it won’t be easy. Hjalmarsson is someone the Hawks can’t replace internally. Bowman would have to make a trade or seek out an available free agent for the right price.
My view was the Hawks could afford to pay Antti Niemi and Hjalmarsson about $ 5.5 million combined without making more salary dumping trades. If Chicago matches the offer sheet they would have about $2 million to pay Niemi and that might not be enough. Once again, trying to figure out the exact available cap space is almost impossible.
The Hawks may have been surprised by Wilson’s aggressiveness. My whispers recently indicated Niemi was on course to squeeze slightly more the $3 million per season out of the Hawks. Maybe becasue Wilson waited a weeks or so, Bowman didn’t expect an offer sheet.
So now what?
My thinking is the Hawks will choose Hjalmarsson over Niemi if need be.
That is my take without any outside rumblings involved. Even though young Nik isn’t worth $3.5 million today he probably will deserve as much three or four years from now. Very good defenders carry a premium these days. It doesn’t take much for a blueliner to earn at least $2.5 million.
The most disappointed beside Blackhawk management might be Bill Zito, Niemi’s agent. Now Bowman may take a chance and let an arbitrator decide Niemi’s salary on a two year contract. Supposedly Bowman and Zito weren’t very far apart on an extension before Wilson crashed the party.
If an arbitrator gives Niemi a $750,000 bump compared to Craig Anderson and Jonathan Quick his new salary would be about $2.6 million. Included would be a nice raise for winning the Cup. But maybe his new deal comes in below as it all depends on the arbitrator.
It appears likely Niemi will want more than $2.5 million per season from the Hawks.
Bowman could wait on Niemi and make a minor deal or two for additional cap space. Or he may go to arbitration and play his hand after the ruling. The Hawks could choose to trade Niemi if his newly awarded contract was too large.
Maybe there is a way for the Hawks to keep Hjalmarsson and Niemi without having to trade anyone off of their untouchable list. Those players are Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Dave Bolland, Marian Hossa, Pat Kane, Patrick Sharp and Jonathan Toews.
Hawk fans will find out what Bowman plans on doing within seven days. The Hawks have a week to match the offer and if Niemi seals a deal sooner there could be another trade to follow.
Bowman also has to allow for cap space for Seabrook as his contract is over after next season. The Hawks second best defender will command close to $5 million per season.
My thinking is Niemi waits for an arbitration ruling unless Bowman decides to take the first and third round draft picks from the Sharks.
If the Hjalmarsson offer sheet is matched the Hawks may roll the dice on an arbitration ruling on Niemi. If Bowman gets a favorable decision he still might be able to hang onto his most important team members.
The Hawks defense already has to manage without Brent Sopel. Can Chicago get by without Hjalmarsson too?
As written in the past, offer sheets have been a figment of the new CBA but if ever one were to make sense this was it.
The Sharks could acquire a very good young defenseman and also weaken their toughest Western Conference opponent.
blackhawkswin@comcast.net
Filed Under: Al Cimaglia • Chicago Blackhawks • Featured • Featured Rumors • NHL
Al, thanks for the update.
A very aggressive move, and not altogether surprising from Doug Wilson.
The Blackhawks thoroughly embarassed the Sharks last year by sweeping them in the playoffs.
Wilson has lost Nabokov due to his own salary cap problems, so why not try to make life miserable for a team that could stand in the Sharks’ way again next year?
This is, as you say, a major challenge for Hawks management.
On the one hand, Bowman can take the picks, slot in one of the newcomers on D (like Vishnevskiy) and sign an FA 5/6 veteran, perhaps a shot-blocker/PK man.
Or Stan matches, and maybe has to let Niemi walk.
Or perhaps he has a Plan B.
Not easy, and not fun, but part of the business.
So much for the break, Al.
I have to agree. Keeping Hjalmarsson over Niemi is a no brainer if need be. I don’t think Wilson is going to overpay so the question becomes is he worth that much to the ‘hawks.
So much for Stan’s proclamation last week that they weren’t going anywhere. Looks like one of them will be. Let’s hope they have the wiggle room to keep them both on board.
Talk about a baptism under fire for SB. Walking on a bed of coals is easier than trying to figure out this cap stuff. As, Dave points out, hopefully management has looked at all the scenarios and are/were prepared for something like this.
well they shouldn’t have been shocked but the timing of this one ….might have stung even more so.
Hjalmarsson’s agent Kevin Epp, per the Chicago Tribune:
“(Niklas) would be happy to be a San Jose Shark. For him to sign the offer sheet I think he’s comfortable playing in San Jose. He’s definitely enjoyed his time in Chicago. It’s been a great place for him and winning the Cup this year has been the highlight of his career. He’s just excited about the opportunity to sign the contract and have some security for him and his family going forward.”
Sounds like Hammer’s made his decision to be a Shark.
Really not only his decision.
The part about the security could be his in Chicago too…as long as Bowman feels the same way.
It also probbaly indicates the Hawks weren’t close to offering him as much.
I applaud Wilson’s aggressive move on this one. I expected this to Al, largely because of your insight over the last few weeks. Great work as always.
Put this to the FF too…
Okay, if as a by-product the Hawks would be forced to cut ties with Niemi, can they trade him at this point, or do they need to just walk away due to the arbitration rules?
Even with the defensive talent in the pipeline, I’d lean towards keeping Hjammer.
They can’t trade now…but they could trade him later or they could walk away after the ruling.
Keep hammer.. In two years this could be a bargain rate for him as other such defensive dmen (Komisarek, Volchenkov, Michalek) are getting $4+ million per season. I do think Hammer can develop to be just as good if not better than these guys.
If Niemi gets awarded to much, let him and try to get Theodore on a bargain rate.. He may have a hard time finding a place to play like Marty Biron and Dwayne Roloson did last summer.
As for next season, remember, unless the boys repeat, these Stanley Cup bonus probably wont be in play, so thats an extra $4 million in cap space to resign Seabrook to a $1-1.5 million raise and Brouwer. Brouwer’ raise all depends on whether or not he keeps developing.
Good points but from what I have heard a portion of the 4 mill+ would have counted anyway but certainly not as much.
Al, there’s no question Doug Wilson’s move is aggressive. The question is, does his willingness to pay Nik Hjalmarsson 3.5 mil per year when Nik is still working out some gaps in his game, mean Stan Bowman has to match?
Doug Wilson knows his talent, but Q’s as good at coaching d-men as anyone in the NHL.
Is there any reason the Hawks can’t insert one of their prospects (i.e. Lalonde, Vishevskiy, Connelly, etc) and develop them the way they developed Hjammer?
I think it is safe to say none of the players they have now can effectively fill in for Hjalmarsson.
Not realistic to think a recent Ice Hog can play 20 minutes+ a night as well as Hammer.
If the Hawks keep both Hjalmarsson at 3.5 million per year and Niemi say at 2.6 million a year. Which likely player or players would they have to dump or trade on the current roster?
Ted,
It’s hard to tell but they might be able to squeak by without trading any of the untouchable 7…
Problem is the other players don’t make much more than $1 mill.
Maybe they would trade Reasoner or Kopecky…maybe both and replace with a $600K Ice Hog…save about $1 mill in cap space.
Mr. Bowman is in a very tight spot.
Al, if Doug Wilson signs Hjammer, he’s got more d-men than he can use, around 2 and a half mil of cap space–assuming CapGeek’s numbers are reliable–to build himself a 4th line and get through next season with Greiss and Niittimaki in goal.
I say call his bluff, and take his draft picks.
The Hawks are The Stanley Cup Champions. They don’t have to prove anything.
So IMHO they can afford to go into next season with managed expectations.
Let Hjammer walk; Bowman can pick up a veteran for $1-2M on a one year deal, and bring up some of the kids.
He’s 23 and if it is $1 million difference I think they have to find a way to keep him.
If Hammer is gone the Cup isn’t in the picture… the concern will be making the playoffs.
Wilson knows exactly what he is doing as this was a well calculated move….I will have more on Monday.
Might be a little premature to say the Hawks don’t make the playoffs without Hjalmar Aika. Though, I’m certainly high on him as well (and not as critical on his passing either).
That said, there’s still a season to play out with waiver moves, trades, injuries, rookies who play well, o not…
A servicable body and the offense playing like it should gets the Hawks to the playoffs. (With a few other assorted assumptions).
Of course, I want him back as well.
I didn’t say they wouldn’t make the playoffs but the expectations should be lowered in my view.
If Hammer is gone that will be a huge hole….Not the same as a 4th line player being shipped off.
I am going to have a blog up for tomorrow instead of today.
On Monday afternoon Bowman meets with the media following the conclusion of prospect camp…I would like to hear his update.
Vishnevskiy is in no way, shap, or form ready to take 2nd pair minutes on a nightly basis.
I agree, the Hawks could afford to lose Sopel or Hjammer, but not both – and Hjammer is still getting better. This offer sheet ensures he will be a bargain by the end of the contract. I think the Hawks would be crazy to not match.
The beauty of the Hawks’ system is that they don’t require a great goalie to win – just a “good enough” one. If Niemi winds up as a too expensive option, there’s others available in the “good enough” category that will be available at a resonable price.
Not a surpise…
Hawks add Mike Kitchen to coaching staff…
Also re-sign Mike Haviland.
I would keep Hammer and let Niemi go. Huet is not a bad goalie and the Hawks can bring up Crawford to groom him this season. It’s not very complicated. It would stupid to keep Niemi and bury Huet in the minors…
Fred,
If they keep Huet they have to trade away at leaat
$5 mill in salary and take none back…..can’t happen.
Keep Hammer .Too young & solid to let get away. Go to arbit with The Fin & see what happens ! If award is too high, then walk away.
It looks like the Hawks matched Hjammer. I guess you don’t let a guy go who you think of as a young Lidstrom (per Scotty B.).
Yep just heard same…
Niemi probably headed for arbitration
With Hjalmarsson being matched, is it safe to say Niemi’s bargaining power has been weakened?
The goalie market being what it is, would the arbitrator likely award Niemi–and would another team sign him, if so, at that amount–$3MM?
Or do the Hawks have a dollar figure ready, with thoughts of another trade to lower their cap, and if so, who goes?
Will be interesting to see what Stan’s plan is.
Not sure how is bargaining power is weakened. His bargaining power really came from outside teams making an offer sheet. And perhaps none have. Or perhaps one will now knowing the Hawks cant match without making a move.
The Hawks flexibility might be lowered in terms of what they can offer Niemi. But, that should have no bearing on what Niemi would get in arbitration.
Can’t write an offer sheet on Niemi now.
I don’t think it is a question of bargaining power….more an either or for Niemi….
Accept what Bowman can afford now or wait for arbitration.
If I am Niemi I wouldn’t count on an arb ruling of over $2.8….I could make a case it shoud be less than $2.5.
Al – great site man. The best Hawk insight and knowledgeable, reasonable posters. Congrats.
Maybe you can shed some light on my question. Any idea how the Hawks Performance Bonus Cushion is shaping up for this year? A team can go over the cap by 7.5% in potential performance bonuses which is why the Hawks could go 4.1 M over last year. All those bonuses kicked in as we know meaning the Hawks had to carry that 4.1 over to this year theoretically lowering their cap limit to 59.4 – 4.1 = 55.3. However they still have this year’s Perf. Bonus Cushion to use. If they have players with performance bonuses, the $ amt. of those (as yet unrealized bonuses) has to be included as part of their cap hit but it can up to the 7.5% over the 59.4 limit.
So what do you know if anything? I’m guessing they must have at least 1 – 2 M in PBC that they could use and thus sign Niemi to 2.5, even 3 and still fill out the roster with 800 k players. I am off base with this thinking or not? No one seems to talk about this.
BTW I’m with you on Niemi’s arb potential – 3M would be absolutely the top I could see him awarded based on the first 2 years of Halak’s contract but I think it’ll be less if it goes that far.
Keep up the good work Al.
@Shreuw, LivingTheCup> what I meant by ‘bargaining power’ in Antti’s case, is that (a) with the Hjalmarsson signing Niemi’s agent Bill Zito knows Bowman may not be able to give him $3mil in the short term (unless it’s a multi year deal, front-loaded to reduce cap hit); (b) with Niemi’s resume being so short and there being no ‘comparables’ the arbitrator may rule in favor of a lower amount more consistent with Niemi’s NHL experience.
Of course I don’t pretend to know what an arbitrator thinks…
And very interesting point LTC raises regarding performance bonuses for 2010-11.
A lot of good possibilities, but one point.
Front loading a contract does not reduce the cap hit.
A 10 yr $80 million dollar contract, whereby most of the salary is paid out in the first five years…
still has a cap hit of $8 mill per year.
The buyout will be easier to swallow later on…also the player probably would be much easier to trade in the last few yrs of his deal as most of the money was already paid out.
But the cap hit for the team which issued the contract is the average salary per yr…. regardless of how the money is paid out.
Al, just to be clear, I was using as a benchmark a few other contracts that were ‘front-loaded’…or ‘back-loaded’ (like in Pascal Leclaire’s case) for that matter.
If, say, Niemi wants 12 million for four years, he could get 5/3/2/2 for example, meaning he cashes in early (assuming this is league-approved). His cap hit is still $3MM/yr.
I’m not sure I fully understand LtC’s post. I’m not sure how any performance bonus cushion would affect Niemi as he can’t get any performance bonuses.
HI LTC,
Thanks for the nice words…
I am not sure I completely follow but maybe this will help.
At least some of the performance bonuses, if not all, could not be counted against the 2009-2010 salary cap beacuse there was no available cap space.
So the Hawks have to use cap space for this season becasue they couldn’t count all the bonuses against the season they were realized.
So the bonuses spill over into the new season 2010-2011, and reduce next year’s cap limit by about $ 4 million.
The bonus cushion allows a team to go over the cap by a certain amount…A couple of years ago the Hawks were caught because the bonus cushion in the last yr. of the CBA couldn’t be used…. 2008-2009.
So for Kane and Toews their whole cap hit including bonuses had to be assumed before the season started.
Which means the possible cap hit has to be taken before earned. That wasn’t the case last year and that is why in the Hawks case the bonuses spilled over.
It isn’t assumed every possible bonus will be earned but if so the team has to allow for the payment by reducing their cap afterwards… if they have no cap room in the prior season.
As I understand it (and I could well be wrong which is why I’m putting it out there) if say Toews has for argument’s sake a $1 M bonus for winning the Hart Trophy then that $ amt is included as part of his 6.3 cap hit. Where the PBC comes in is that because that bonus is not yet realized it can be counted over and above the cap limit of 59.4 (up to a max of 7.5% of the cap). So if the Hawks have say 2 M in PBC on various contracts their real limit is 59.4 + 2 = 61.4. This COULD mean Niemi could fit in under the cap.
Again as I understand it this was how the Hawks managed the big 3 extensions by going 4.1 over the cap limit with their PBC. Of course that 4.1 is deferred to this coming season just like a hypothetical 2M (as per my example) PBC for 10-11 would be deferred to their 11-12 cap.
If Niemi signs a longer term deal for a cap hit of say 2.8 it might all work out if my thinking on PBC is right. There are figures the public doesn’t know and this I think is one of them.
The performance bonuses are on top of the cap hit, not included. Signing bonuses would be included in the cap and spread out over the length of the contract.
(Also there are no performance bonuses in Toews contract going forward)
a further note…
because the CBA was extended another year recently the PBC is in effect for 10-11 which is why I raise it as a possibility for the Hawks to exploit.
It might work without a big salry dump if Niemi comes in at $2.5 or lower is my guess.
Its too early for a cocktail but I think you are mixing apples with oranges.
Tagging room which was needed to sign the big three is diffrent than a bonus cushion.
There is a lot we don’t know…although I could ask I know there is no way Bowman will answer nor should he.
We are assuming too many things…bonus cushions..performance bonuses..how much the Hawks actually paid out in bonuses last year.
That said they are up against it.
My guess was $5.5 for both Niemi and Hammer as being the number they could swallow without dumping more salary.
I will stick with it until proven otherwise.
Hammer got about $750,000-$1 mill more than he probably would have and that is the sticking point for now.
Thanks everyone for your input. Here’s what I found out on capgeek. Cap hit is calculated as total salary plus total bonuses. Performance bonuses are eligible for the cushion but where I am probably misguided in my thinking is that they seem to apply to Entry level contracts mostly (don’t know if that’s a rule or not), at least on the Hawks they do. As someone pointed out there is no PB for Toews on his current contract. However if Beach, Lalonde and Stahlberg make the roster (not unreasonable) it gives them $610,000 in performance bonus cushion – not as high as I was guessing but something.
Using capgeek I generated a 20 man roster (league minimum) with Niemi at 2.5 (optimistic?) that includes the above 3 players as well as Dowell, Bickell, Vishenskiy and Crawford that came in 3K under the cap with the PBC. Other scenarios of players could work as well (eg. Skille for Beach) but if they want to go with a streamlined roster and can get Niemi at 2.5 it seems do-able. Does seem like a lot of ifs though.
Indeed, performance bonuses are only allowed on entry level and certain 35+ year old contracts where they are coming back from missing most of the season from injury (and some other clauses like that).
I’m still unsure where you think the performance cushion helps. If Beach makes the team his cap hit is $1.17 and the performance cushion doesn’t come into play until the end of the season if he hits it.
Errr, i guess this is where I should ask – right?
I dont think the Hawks are out of cap woods yet. I think they would love to move campbell or hossa — but Sharp might very well be the only moveable one.
Wonder when the Huet shoe will drop?
If Skille is still here he will sign on for less than his last contract….maybe $750,000-$800,000.
I doubt if Beach is on the team in October…. same with Lalonde, although he has a better chance.
Shruew …as you correctly pointed out the Huet issue can’t be officially taken care of until 12 days before roster dealine.
I am sure they have told his agent what the score is…they don’t have to announce anything publicly.
I am going to stick with Sharp not being traded unless Nimei signs for well over $3 mill before arbitration.
Did Skille get an offer sheet? If so, it can’t be less than previous years. Is he a UFA now then?
I thought I was right about Huet, but then I saw the Caps put Nylander through waivers again for some reason and doubted myself. But, Nylander was already off the books vs Huet’s situation.
Beach just ended the season for the Finnish prospect according to some reports.
I doubt he got an offer sheet…didn’t hear so.
All they had to do was tender him an offer under the guidelines………. his bonus structure will be more affordable this time…imo
shruew.. Beach’s cap hit is as you say 1.17 but that includes a 325 K performance bonus and it is all counted against the 10-11 cap from the start of the year. However because that bonus is not yet realized the Hawks are allowed use it as a PBC to be over 59.4 by 325 K. If he collects that bonus at year’s end and the Hawks can’t fit it under the 10-11 cap then it goes against the 11-12 cap.
Anyway I think I’m done with this topic – it doesn’t look like a big winner for the Hawks but maybe a little savings.
I see what you’re saying now. At some point capgeek started breaking out Performance Bonuses. Before Beach’s contract was listed with all the bonus seemingly under signing bonus. Which changes the picture slightly.
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